Fishbanks Jason Jay Senior Lecturer in Sustainability Director, Sustainability Initiative at MIT Sloan MIT Sloan School of Management jjay@mit.edu Http://mitsloan.mit.edu/sustainability
A brief history of Fishbanks… Paper version invented by Dennis Meadows, former MIT Sloan Professor of System Dynamics, 1986 Online version developed by MIT Sloan and Forio, deployed through LearningEdge, 2010 Translations in beta test for Chinese, Spanish, Portuguese, with funding from Gustavo Pierini, 2014 Deployment in universities and training programs around the world, including MIT Sloan S-Lab, L-Lab, ExecEd
Fishbanks • Intro (almost over) • Fishbanks! • Results and Discussion Winslow Homer, The Herring Net Fishbanks game by originally developed by Prof. Dennis Meadows. Web version developed by Prof. John Sterman, MIT Sloan School of Management, with help from Prof. Andrew King, Tuck School of Business, Dennis Meadows, Keith Eubanks, and Forio.com.
Your Goal Maximize your Net Worth at the end of the game. Net Worth = $ Bank Balance + Value of Fleet The winner is the team with the highest Net Worth at game end
Profit Profit = Income – Expenses NEW SHIP ORDERS HARBOR & FISH OPERATING SALES COSTS INTEREST SHIP INTEREST EARNINGS AUCTIONS PURCHASES CHARGES & TRADE PURCHASES SHIP SHIP TRADE SALES SALES
Income Fish Catch x Price ($20 per fish) Sales 2%/year if Minimum Bank Interest Earnings Balance is greater than zero Ship Ship Price set by auction Trade Sales Sales
Expenses Harbor: $ 50/year per ship Harbor & Coastal Fishery: $150/year per ship Operating Costs Deep Sea Fishery: $250/year per ship New Ships: $300 each. Charged at end of Con- current year. Delivered the following year struction Buy a ship at auction. Cost: your winning Auction & Ship Trade bid per ship * number bought Purchases Purchase 5%/yr if Minimum Bank Balance is less Interest than zero. Charges
Sequence of Debits and Credits You start the year with The minimum balance is calculated a bank balance that and your account is adjusted by the has accumulated appropriate interest. through all past years. You are then + charged for the operating costs of your fleet. Bank Balance Your fish catch is Finally, your account If you buy ships at calculated and is charged for the cost auction or from other you are credited of any new ships you teams, the cost is with the sales ordered at the – subtracted. income. beginning of the year.
Fishing Fleet • Initial Fleet = 3 Ships/team • Fleet Growth - Purchase from other teams via auctions - Order new ships • Fleet Reduction - Sales to other teams via auctions
Ordering New Ships Each year you may order the construction of new ships. The maximum order is half of your current fleet (initial fleet + auction purchases). If total fleet is an odd number, your maximum order is rounded up to the next whole number.
Catch Catch influenced by: Number of Ships, Ship Effectiveness, Weather
Ship Effectiveness DEEP SEA 25 25 SHIP COASTAL EFFECTIVENESS 15 (FISH PER SHIP PER YEAR) 0 0 FISH MAXIMUM DENSITY
Recent History of the Fisheries RECENT HISTORY OF THE FISHERIES SHIPS CATCH PRESENT YEAR
FishBanks • Three oceans: Atlantic, Indian • 5 teams in each ocean, 2-3 people per team • The oceans are separate • Fish do not move between oceans • Ships do not move between oceans • Conditions identical except for your decisions
Let ’ s Go Fishing Winslow Homer, Fishing Boats, Key West (1903)
Login • 1 Laptop per team (put all others away please) • Go to: http://bit.ly/fishbanks • Login with the user name and password we hand out • STOP OP – wait for instructions
Please Wait
Fishing Areas Deep Sea Coast Maximum Population Maximum Population 2000 - 4000 Fish 1000 - 2000 Fish Annual Operating Cost Annual Operating Cost $250 per Ship-Year $150 per Ship-Year Productivity Productivity (Max Ship Effectiveness) (Max Ship Effectiveness) 25 (Fish/year)/ship 15 (Fish/year)/Ship
Profit Example 1 SHIP TO DEEP SEA $500 FISH SALES = 25 X $20 - $250 OPERATING COST DEEP SEA SUBTOTAL $250 1 SHIP TO COASTAL $300 FISH SALES = 15 X $20 - $150 OPERATING COST COASTAL SUBTOTAL $150 1 SHIP TO HARBOR HARBOR COST - $50 $350 PROFIT
Regeneration of Fish Deep Sea New Fish Per Year Coastal 0 0 Fish Max
Develop your Strategy 1. Your goal is to end the game with the maximum possible assets. 2. Discuss within your team what strategies for boat acquisition and allocation you will follow to attain this. 3. Write your strategy down.
DATA DEBRIEF – WHAT HAPPENED?
CONCEPTUAL DEBRIEF – WHAT CAN WE LEARN?
Fishbanks Debrief Winslow Homer, Fishing Boats, Key West (1903)
The Iceberg A Metaphor for Systems Thinking Events More Leverage Patterns of Behavior Systemic Structure
Event level: the Headlines Fishing banned Limits may follow as cod diminishes Codfish at Georges Bank in Gulf of Maine depleted Local fishermen fear overcrowding off Maine Restrictions could Hearing casts fishery as sinking ship Hurt local fishermen Loopholes found Canada ’ s Lobstermen Snag record In fishing rules Gunboat 38m pounds Diplomacy N.E. lawmakers seek boat buyback ideas Chrétien to protect Atlantic fish stocks Feds approve boat buyback program Hope to thin fishing fleet with $2m in incentives
The Iceberg A Metaphor for Systems Thinking Events More Leverage Patterns of Behavior Systemic Structure
Sh Sh Fish Sh Typical Game Behavior 8 Catch 6 I Ships N D 4 E X 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR
Typical Game Behavior - Fleet TOTAL FLEET 80 70 60 50 SHIPS 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR
Typical Game Behavior - Catch Deep Sea Catch 1200 Coastal Catch 1000 800 Fish 600 per 400 Year 200 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 YEAR
Typical Game Behavior - Fish Stocks 2500 Deep Sea 2000 Coastal 1500 FISH 1000 500 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR
Pattern #1: Overshoot and Collapse Atlantic Swordfish Pacific Bluefin Tuna Catch Catch 5 Thousand Metric Tons/year 16 Thousand Metric Tons/year 4 12 3 8 2 4 1 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
North Sea Herring Catch 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 North Sea 200 herring ban 0 Mark Wise, Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community, New York, Methuen, 1984.
Consider the Cod • Northern or Atlantic Cod – Long-lived, slow to mature – Once immensely abundant • Early fishers (e.g., Basque) claimed fish so dense you could walk from Spain to the New World on their backs. • John Cabot, exploring Newfoundland in 1497, noted fish so thick they practically blocked his ship. – Harvest ≈ 250,000 metric tons/yr through 1950s – Vital in feeding the Old World, in the development of the New World, …and of Massachusetts:
The Sacred Cod Massachusetts State House
Prevailing Mental Model: Unlimited Abundance “ Probably all the great fisheries are inexhaustible; that is to say that nothing we do seriously affects the number of fish. ” – Thomas Henry Huxley, 1883
US Atlantic Cod Commercial Landings (Metric Tons/Year) 60000 45000 30000 15000 http://www.st.nmfs.gov/pls/webpls/MF_ANNUAL_LANDINGS.RESULTS 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: US National Marine Fisheries Service
Estimated Cod Stocks, Scotian Shelf (000 Metric Tons) Estimated Biomass in 1852 1200 Estimated Carrying Capacity (Myers et al. 2001) 800 400 Total Cod Biomass Total Cod Biomass Age 5+ 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1980 Rosenberg et al., Frontiers in Ecology, 2005
Overshoot and Collapse Why the pervasive pattern of overshoot and collapse of fisheries? Annual fish catch Where are the leverage points for creating a sustainable fishery? Where are they not? Time
The Iceberg A Metaphor for Systems Thinking Events More Leverage Patterns of Behavior Systemic Structure
+ Fisher Investment Profit B + DELAY - Costs + Operating Revenue Fleet Costs + + + R Profitable Price of Growth + Fish + Total Catch Catch per Ship
+ Fisher Investment Profit B + DELAY - Costs + Operating Revenue Fleet Costs + + + R Profitable Price of Growth + Fish + Total Catch Catch per Fish Stocks B Ship - No Fish, + No Catch Net Fish R B + Fertility + DELAY + Fish Regeneration Density Ocean Carrying Capacity for Fish +
Population Economic Growth Growth + + + Fisher R Investment R Profit B + Population Wealth DELAY - Costs + Operating Revenue Fleet Costs + + + + Demand R + + for Fish Profitable Price of Growth + Fish + Total Catch Catch per Fish Stocks B Ship - No Fish, + No Catch Net Fish R B + Fertility + DELAY + Fish Regeneration Density Ocean Carrying Capacity for Fish +
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