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EPP Interim Results 2018
Financial results H1 2018 EPP Interim Results 2018 1 Agenda 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Financial results H1 2018 EPP Interim Results 2018 1 Agenda 1 EPP at a glance and H1 2018 highlights 2 Polish macro update and EPP strategy 3 Financial highlights H1 2018 4 Operational highlights H1 2018 5 Acquisitions and
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
1 EPP at a glance and H1 2018 highlights 2 Polish macro update and EPP strategy 3 Financial highlights H1 2018 4 Operational highlights H1 2018 5 Acquisitions and developments 6 Office disposal update 7 Outlook
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
dominant retail landlords in Poland with nearly 700 000 m2 GLA
Lomza Warsaw Zamosc Krakow Lodz Wrocław Poznan Szczecin Kielce Inowroclaw Jelenia Gora Klodzko Czeladz Przemysl Bełchatow Wloclawek Zabrze Kalisz Retail assets (19) Retail development projects (2)
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EPP Interim Results 2018
within a 30 min drive
Lomza Warsaw Zamosc Krakow Lodz Wrocław Poznan Szczecin Kielce Inowroclaw Jelenia Gora Czeladz Przemysl Bełchatow Wloclawek Zabrze Kalisz M1 Bytom M1 Czestochowa Power Park Olsztyn Power Park Opole Power Park Kielce M1 Poznan M1 Tychy Klodzko M1 Radom Retail assets (20) Retail development projects (1) M1 centres tranche 2 and 3
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Total portfolio value (EUR’m) Share of retail in portfolio Number of shopping centres Retail portfolio GLA (m2) Net asset value per share (EUR) Distribution per share (EUR cents) LTV
IPO- Aug 2016 1 210 76% 9 303 338 1.04 56.4% 2 067 85% 18 638 815 1.37 5.82 50.9% H1 2018
Portfolio growth and strategy executed
H1 2017 1 623 74% 13 402 637 1.23 5.19 50.6%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
GLA m2
Footfall
Sales/m2
Vacancy
Walt by NOI
*LFL NRI growth excludes, Galaxy and Outlet extensions ^Includes the impact of the Sunday trading ban that commenced in March 2018
RTS
OCR
LFL NRI growth* g
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EPP Interim Results 2018
ON TRACK TO DELIVER FULL YEAR DIVIDEND GUIDANCE OF BETWEEN
EURO CENTS
Income statement H1 2017 vs H1 2018
1 Excluding deferred tax
Balance sheet FY 2017 vs H1 2018
Net property income p p y
Total assets
Distributable earnings NAV1 per share DPS per share
LTV net
Distributable earnings
S p
Total assets
NAV per share
LTV net
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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Unemployment rate Average monthly salary (EUR)
2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) Poland Germany EU28 Source: Oxford Economics, National Bank of Poland
20,90% 11,21% 0,00% 3,00% 6,00% 9,00% 12,00% 15,00% 18,00% 21,00% 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 Poland Germany Average monthly salary (EUR) Average monthly salary 2012-2017 growth #REF!
Significant boost from consumer spending
Consumer spending in Poland (EUR bn)
Consumer confidence index in Poland (100=long-term average)
229 229 236 243 251 263 274 284 293 101,80 98 99 100 101 102 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Growth (y-o-y) Average monthly salary in Poland (PLN)
Average monthly salary (PLN)
Average salary growth (PLN)
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EPP Interim Results 2018
7,50% 7,00% 6,00% 6,00% 6,00% 6,00% 5,50% 5,25% 5,00% 5,60% 5,20% 5,00% 4,70% 4,70% 4,70% 4,60% 4,60% 4,60% 4,00% 4,50% 5,00% 5,50% 6,00% 6,50% 7,00% 7,50% 8,00% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Poland Germany (Berlin)
Limited new supply
New supply of shopping centre stock (000s m2)
Decreasing prime yields
Prime retail yields in major regional Polish cities (%)
743 452 615 475 607 425 612 443 399 459 253 250 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F 2020F SOURCE: Savills
EPP yield 6.4%
centres
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
EUR million HY 2018 HY 2017 Variance Net property income 66,2 45,5 20,7 Other income / (expenses) (0,2) 0,4 (0,7) Administrative & selling expenses (6,7) (4,2) (2,6) EBITDA 59,2 41,8 17,4 Fair value gain on investment property 28,8 15,6 13,2 Share in fair value gain & profit of JVs 25,3 2,7 22,6 Finance income / (expenses) (15,5) (8,0) (7,5) Foreign exchange gains / (losses) 5,9 (2,7) 8,5 Current taxation (4,9) (1,5) (3,4) Deferred taxation (19,5) (8,4) (11,1) Net profit after taxes 79,4 39,6 39,8 Earnings adjustments (33,2) (6,6) (26,6) Antecendent dividend 2,1 3,7 (1,6) Distributable earnings 48,3 36,6 11,7 DPS (€ cents) 5,82 5,19 0,63
NPI GROWTH
DISTRIBUTABLE EARNINGS GROWTH
DPS GROWTH
EBITDA GROWTH
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EPP Interim Results 2018
LTV
DEBT MATURITY AUGUST 2018 (3.6 YEARS 30 JUNE 2018)
AVERAGE COST OF DEBT
NAV PER SHARE GROWTH
EUR million 30 Jun 2018 31 Dec 2017 Variance Investment property 2 067 1 656 411 Investment in JVs 138 116 22 Financial assets 22 30 (8) Deferred tax asset 1
Other assets 21 28 (6) Cash 70 123 (53) Total assets 2 320 1 952 368 Equity 976 834 142 Borrowings 1 195 968 227 Deferred tax liability 110 94 16 Other liabilities 39 56 (18) Total equity and liabilities 2 320 1 952 368 NAV per share € 1,37 € 1,32 € 0,05 LTV (net) 50,9% 47,4% 3,5%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Debt maturity profile as at 30 June 2018 Debt maturity profile as at 31 August 2018
11 195 425 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 >2022
(€m) Average maturity: 4.3 years
672
EPP successfully refinanced the following loans in the last two months:
100 150 11 80 185 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 >2022
(€m) Average maturity: 3.6 years
672
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Reducing LTV
56,4% 55,4% 47,4% 50,9% 45%
IPO FY 2016 FY 2017 H1 2018
target
LTV (%)
portfolio
reduceLTV
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
GLA m2
Footfall
Sales/m2^
Vacancy
Walt by NOI
*LFL NRI growth excludes Galaxy and Outlet extensions ^Includes the impact of the Sunday trading ban that commenced in March 2018
RTS
OCR
LFL NRI growth* g
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Consumer shift already seen from Sundays to Saturdays, Mondays and Fridays
Average footfall change
+ 12% + 3% + 7% + 4% + 8% + 12%
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
+ 0% + 20% 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 300 000 Mar-Jun 2017 Mar-Jun 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
refurbishments of common areas in progress
WROCŁAW
GLA (m2) 48 352 Rent to sales 14.5% WAULT 4.8 years Occupancy 99.1% Footfall growth
Footfall H1 2018 5.1 million Turnover growth
Valuation yield 5.7%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Largest shopping & entertainment centre in Northwest Poland
not LFL
SZCZECIN
GLA (m2) 56 630 Rent to sales 13.4% WAULT 7.1 years Occupancy 99.6% Footfall growth 16.1% Footfall H1 2018 6.1 million Turnover growth +1% Valuation yield 5.9%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
KIELCE
GLA (m2) 71 830 Rent to sales 10.4% WAULT 4.2 years Occupancy 97% Footfall growth
Footfall H1 2018 4.5 million Turnover growth +2.4% Valuation yield 5.9%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
KALISZ
GLA (m2) 33 546 Rent to sales 9.3% WAULT 4.6 years Occupancy 99.8% Footfall growth +4.6% Footfall H1 2018 3.1 million Turnover growth +1.9% Valuation yield 6.4%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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centres
within a 30 min drive
grow to 120 million
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EPP Interim Results 2018
GLA
Sustainable NOI
Potential extension (m2)
Potential NOI growth g
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EPP Interim Results 2018
POZNAN
GLA (m2) 45 353 Rent to sales (RTS) 9.8% WAULT 4.8 years Occupancy 99% Occupancy cost ratio (OCR) 12.4% Annual footfall 4.7 million Net initial yield 7.3%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Smyk, H&M, Sephora, Douglas, Van Graaf, CCC, Go sport)
Planned total GLA (m2) 82 122 Estimated fully-let NOI on completion € 22 m Estimated development yield on cost
Estimated valuation yield on completion
Estimated value on completion €412 m
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Planned total retail GLA (m2) 105 000 Estimated cost of retail development (land included) € 420 m Estimated fully let retail NOI on completion € 34 m Estimated development yield on cost
Estimated valuation retail yield on completion
Estimated value of retail space €680 m Estimated value of the additional space €150 m TOTAL €830 m
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EPP Interim Results 2018
MALTA OFFICE PARK, POZNAŃ
GLA 28 270 m²
O3 BUSINESS CAMPUS, KRAKÓW
GLA 56 926 m² (all three phases)
SYMETRIS (I & II)
GLA: 19 000 m²
disposed of A4 Business Park, Tryton Business House and West Gate for a total consideration of €160m in December 2017
and Symetris Business Park is in the final stage of negotiations.
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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ON TRACK TO DELIVER FULL YEAR DIVIDEND GUIDANCE OF BETWEEN
EURO CENTS
Portfolio integration Asset management Asset recycling LTV reduction
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EPP Interim Results 2018 This document has been prepared and issued by and is the sole responsibility of the management of EPP N.V. (the “Company” or “EPP”) and its subsidiaries. No information made available in connection with this presentation may be passed on, copied, reproduced, in whole or in part, or otherwise disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any other person. The contents of this presentation are to be kept confidential. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any securities of the Company nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract commitment or investment decision in relation thereto nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. Investors and prospective investors in securities of the Company are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of the Company and the nature of the securities. This presentation and any materials distributed in connection with this presentation may include certain forward-looking statements, beliefs or opinions, including statements with respect to the Company’s business, financial condition and results of operations. These statements, which contain the words “anticipate”, “believe”, “intend”, “estimate”, “expect”, “forecast” and words of similar meaning, reflect the Directors’ beliefs and expectations and involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the
actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements and forecasts. Past performance of the Company cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation and the Company expressly disclaims any obligations or undertaking to release any update of, or revisions to, any forward-looking statements in this presentation. No statement in this presentation is intended to be a profit forecast. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any undue reliance on such forward-looking statements. The information on which these statements has been based has not been reviewed or reported by EPP’s auditors. This document speaks as of the date hereof. No reliance may be placed for any purposes whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness, accuracy or
in this presentation, to correct any inaccuracies which may become apparent, or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law, and any opinions expressed in them are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by the Company, or any of its subsidiary undertakings or affiliates or directors, officers, Java Capital or any of its directors or employees or any other person as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this presentation and no liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this presentation or its contents
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EPP Interim Results 2018
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EPP Interim Results 2018
In recent years, Poland has experienced GDP growth well above the EU average of 2.2%. This strong growth, combined with strong investor interest and an influx of Ukrainian workers to supplement the labour market will only further Poland’s standing amongst EU economies. High levels of private consumption support the growth in the economy. Warsaw in particular is experiencing the fastest growth of any city within the EU and appears to be set to continue to outpace other markets.
and 9th when volume of GDP is considered (current prices, milion euro) with a positive pace of growth, higher than other major European economies
robust growth in private consumption which is expected to reach 4.0% in 2018.
13%) to over 279,000 people. By 2020 the sector is forecasted to employ c.340,000 people;
Proficiency Index survey;
and IT);
introduced in April 2016 has led to a considerable growth of retail sales.
2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) Private consumption (%,yoy) 4.0% 3.6% 3.3% GDP growth (%, yoy) 4.6% 3.3% 3.0% Retail sales growth (%, yoy) 6.0% 4.2% 3.4% Consumer spending (%, yoy) 4.6% 3.3% 3.0% Average monthly salary growth 6.9% 7.0% 6.8% Inflation (%) 2.3% 2.6% 1.4% Unemployment rate (ILO definition, %) 4.3% 4.0% 3.6%
GDP growth in selected EU countries
0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% Poland UK France Germany EU28 2018 (f) 2019 (f) 2020 (f) Source: Oxford Economics, National Bank of Poland
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Economic background Investment attractiveness Improving international rankings Outlook
(current prices, milion purchasing power standards) and 9th when volume of GDP is considered (current prices, milion euro) ;
compared to EU average of 83.5%
(ILO definition, July 2018)
and domestic demand
banking sector
workforce
(wages and rents lower than most of EU)
borders Germany, Poland’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 26% of all Polish exports and 25% of all imports (2017)
exemptions: Subject to application and receival of a permit. N.B. Any commitments made on application regarding CapEx and creation of jobs become obligations to be fulfilled by the company
with rapid growth in business process
centres (SSC)
ranking 2017 (World Bank) (SA ranked 82nd)
Transparency Index and 11th in Europe. The top ten highly transparent real estate markets attract 75% of global investment. (SA ranked 21st)
BPO services. Krakow 1st position in Europe in the Emerging Outsourcing Destinations (9th in the world)
Special Economic Zone: Winner of Europe’s best SME Free Zone 2017 according to Global Free Zones of the Year 2017.
investment according to World Investment Report 2017
locations in the world for professional services
consequential consumption will continue, thanks to high levels of FDI and investors entering the market
trend, in the aftermath of Brexit, Poland is well placed to benefit as companies in the UK consider transferring part or all of their
market will continue to attract investment
with convergence with developed Europe will provide an opportunity to increase asset values
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EPP Interim Results 2018
H2 expected to follow suit. As a result, 2018 is forecast to be a record year for investment activity in Poland.
investment in the region (42% in 2017).
*All types of properties, based on RCA data Source: Savills, RCA
Investment volume by sector in Poland (EUR million) Investment volume by region of origin in Poland Investment volume* in CEE
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018 EUR million Offices Retail Logistics Other 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018 EUR million Domestic EU US AsiaPac Middle East South Africa Other 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018 EUR million Domestic EU US AsiaPac Middle East South Africa Other
Top investors by volume of transactions finalised between 2015 – H1 2018
250 500 750 1 000 1 250 Volume (EUR million) Volume
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EPP Interim Results 2018
and almost 80% above the 10 year average. In 2018 this figure is expected to rise to approximately €12.5bn.
Republic (30%), whilst Hungary and Romania accounted for 15% and 10% respectively.
expand by 4.0% compared to 2.2% in the rest of the EU.
followed by offices (30%). Last year, industrial space accounted for 15% of the turnover compared with just 4% ten years ago and this share is expected to rise.
€5.04bn
€62.01bn €59.2bn €25.6bn €9.3bn €2.1bn €9.3bn €1.3bn €14.9bn €6.5bn €10bn €3.5bn €4.5bn €7.5bn €1.8bn €0.36bn €1.2bn
CEE Investment Volumes: 2017
Poland 42% Czechia 30% Hungary 15% Other 3% Romania 10%
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EPP Interim Results 2018
As at 30 June 2018
No Property City Retail GLA [m2] Fair Value 30 Jun 18 (m EUR] 1 Galaxy Szczecin 56,630 281.80 2 Pasaż Grunwaldzki Wrocław 48,352 257.30 3 Galeria Echo Kielce 71,830 225.10 4 M1 - Kraków Kraków 49,643 130.20 5 M1 - Czeladź Czeladź 53,648 129.50 6 Outlet Park Szczecin 28,283 95.30 7 Galeria Amber Kalisz 33,546 91.20 8 M1 - Zabrze Zabrze 52,775 82.00 9 Galeria Sudecka Jelenia Góra 30,268 58.60 10 Zakopianka Kraków 26,143 57.90 11 Galeria Solna Inowrocław 23,551 57.20 12 Galeria Olimpia Bełchatów 32,703 56.00 13 Twierdza Zamość Zamość 23,806 54.10 14 Wzorcownia Włocławek 25,423 52.10 15 Twierdza Kłodzko Kłodzko 23,039 49.50 16 Galeria Veneda Łomża 15,026 40.70 17 M1 - Łódź Łódź 38,388 39.40 18 Echo Centrum Przemysl Przemyśl 5,759 5.01 Total 638,815 1,763 No Property City Office GLA [m2] Fair Value 30 Jun 18 (m EUR] 19 Park Rozwoju Warsaw 33,559 71.40 20 Malta Office Park Poznań 28,268 59.70 21 O3 Business Campus Phase I Kraków 18,991 48.80 22 O3 Business Campus Phase II Kraków 18,960 46.20 23 Astra park Kielce 14,269 31.90 24 Oxygen Szczecin 13,924 27.90 25 Symetris Phase I Łódź 9,593 22.50 Total 137,486 308 No Property City Land area [m2] Fair Value 30 Jun 18 (m EUR] 26 Galeria Młociny Warsaw 51,037 262.90 27 T22 Warsaw 64,869 102.00
[16] Łomża [18] Przemyśl [9] Jelenia Góra
[20] Poznań
[18, 26] Łódź
Retail Office Development land
40 EUR m
250 EUR mFair Value diagram scale:
[3, 23] Kielce
[19, 26, 27] Warsaw
[7] Kalisz [12] Bełchatów [13] Zamość [14] Włocławek [15] Kłodzko
[1, 6, 24] Szczecin [2] Wrocław
[4, 10, 21, 22] Kraków
[5] Inowrocław 66% 34% 88% 12% 93% 7 % 64% 36%
[5] M1 Czeladź [8] M1 Zabrze
16% 84 %
* Galeria Olimpia nad Echo centrum Bełchatów considered as a single unit – Galeria Olimpia
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EPP Interim Results 2018
Tranche 1 - Acquired in January 2018 Tranches II and III
No Property GLA [m2] 1 M1 Czeladź 53,650 2 M1 Kraków 49,619 3 M1 Zabrze 52,775 4 M1 Łódź 38,370 Total 194,414 No Property GLA [m2] 5 M1 Bytom 28,200 6 M1 Częstochowa 29,900 7 M1 Radom 37,000 8 Power Park Olsztyn 32,500 9 Power Park Opole 20,700 10 Power Park Kielce 35,700 11 M1 Poznań 45,400 12 M1 Tychy 22,700 Total 252,100
Tranche I
Szczecin Łomża Warszawa Jelenia Góra Wrocław Przemyśl Bełchatów
Tranche II and III
Włocławek Zamość Kłodzko Kalisz Innowrocław
Other EPP assets
Notes
www.epp-poland.com