financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2012 JSE: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL

financial results

for the six months ended 31 December 2012

JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL

better together… we deliver 2

forward-looking statements

Forward-looking statements: Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements that are not historical facts and relate to analyses and other information which are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. These statements may also relate to our future prospects, developments and business strategies. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding exchange rate fluctuations, volume growth, increases in market share, total shareholder return and cost reductions. Words such as “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “seek”, “will”, “plan”, “could”, “may”, “endeavour” and “project” and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements, but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and there are risks that the predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. If one or more of these risks materialise, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may differ materially from those anticipated. You should understand that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed more fully in our most recent annual report under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on Form 20-F filed on 12 October 2012 and in other filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The list of factors discussed therein is not exhaustive; when relying on forward-looking statements to make investment decisions, you should carefully consider both these factors and other uncertainties and events. Forward-looking statements apply only as of the date on which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

introduction

David E. Constable

Chief Executive Officer

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what you will hear today

key messages

• Resilient notwithstanding global challenges
• Well-positioned regional strategies
• Delivering and growing sustainably
• Strong operational and financial performance
• Advancing exciting growth projects
• Compelling investment proposition

Westlake Facility, Lake Charles, Louisiana Sasol Synfuels, Secunda

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strong performer during challenging times

resilient notwithstanding global challenges

4,1 7,1 9,7 7,7 5,8 9,4 10,4 17,0 22,4 13,6 15,9 19,8 23,6

5 10 15 20 25

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 ZARbn

Sasol’s attributable earnings Attributable earnings Linear (Attributable earnings)

Global recession

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Emerging economies Mature economies

well-positioned regional strategies

solid foundation in Africa with exciting opportunities to expand internationally

Source: IMF WEO (Oct 12), Sasol calculations

• 66% of Sasol’s total assets are within

sub-Saharan Africa

• South Africa contributes 28% to sub-Saharan

Africa’s GDP

• Rapid development of shale gas in North

America revitalising the energy and chemicals sectors

• Opportunity to create a strong competitive

position

7,3 5,4 3,9 2 4 6 8 Asia Sub-Saharan Arica Latin America Real GDP (% CAGR 2010-15, PPP) 2,5 1,0 0,8 2 4 6 8 United States Japan Eurozone Real GDP (% CAGR 2010-15, PPP)

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delivering and growing sustainably

broader contributions to the communities we live and work in

Siyakha Development Trust Initiative

• Significant skills transfer and community support
• Basic and continuing education – focusing on maths, science and technology
• Skills development
• Infrastructure and community development
• Committed R800m over 4 years through Project Ikusasa for municipality renewal
• Siyakha supports the establishment of broad-based black empowered enterprises
• Largest SA corporate taxpayer – contributed R15bn in 1H13 to direct and indirect taxes
• 72,4% of our CAPEX spend invested in South Africa

Group Partnership Forum with Sasol Management

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delivering and growing sustainably

advancing key milestones in South Africa in 1H13

• Next phase of our R14bn mine replacement programme on track
• Synfuels growth programme delivers results with
• The commissioning of four new gasifiers
• Progress made on projects supporting environmental sustainability
• Sasolburg Gas Engines Power Plant commissioned in December 2012 ahead of schedule

and well within budget

Sasolburg Gas Engines Power Plant Coal blending facility at Secunda Sasol Synfuels, Secunda

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delivering and growing sustainably

advancing key milestones abroad in 1H13

• Announced 2 strategic mega-projects progressing to FEED in Lake Charles, USA
• World-scale ethane cracker and derivatives
• Integrated GTL and chemicals facility
• FEED work for Uzbekistan GTL plant progressing according to schedule
• FID on gas-fired electricity generation in Mozambique

FEED Announcement, Lake Charles, Louisiana Central Processing Facility, Mozambique

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solid operational performance

solid global operations

• ORYX GTL plant continues to achieve production records
• Average production above 90% of design capacity
• Sasol Synfuels delivered production for the period of 3,7 mt
• Successful shutdown in September 2012
• Arya delivering solid results despite challenging environment
• Safety improvement plans deliver positive results
• ORYX GTL achieved a recordable case rate of zero

Brandspruit Colliery, Secunda ORYX GTL, Qatar Members of Sasol Mining Team, Secunda

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strong financial performance

solid earnings

• Sasol Synfuels’ production up 10%
• Operating profit up by 9% (excluding once-offs) to R22,6bn
• Headline earnings per share up by 2% to R24,01
• Interim dividend of R5,70 per share
• Cash flow from operations up by 6% to R27,5bn

Sasol Synfuels, Secunda ORYX GTL, Qatar

financial and

• perational

performance

Christine Ramon

Chief Financial Officer

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Prices reflect international commodities or baskets of commodities and are not necessarily Sasol specific Sources: RSA Department of Energy, ICIS-LOR, Reuters, Platts, World Scale Association, API 4, International Energy Agency

favourable currency effects offset softer commodity prices

US$/ton Softening chemical prices

Polymers basket Solvents basket

US$1 = ZAR Weakening currency 5 10 100 200

$/mmbtu (gas price) US$/bbl

Lower US$ fuel, oil and US gas prices

Brent Product price Henry Hub $1 265 $1 417 $1 220 $1 146

1H12 1H13

$111 $128 $110

1H12 1H13 1H12 1H13

R7,63 R8,48 $3,72 $3,14 $130

Commodity prices Rand/unit Average 1H13 % ∆ vs 1H12 Brent/bbl 931 ▲ 10 Fuel products/bbl 1 084 ▲ 13 Polymers/ton 10 346 ▲ 8 Solvents/ton 9 716 ▼ 10 Export coal/ton 735 ▼ 14

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1H13 1H12 % ∆

SA Energy 16,7 13,5 ▲ 24 International Energy 0,5 1,2 ▼ 58 Chemicals

• 4,3

▼100 Other 1,7 1,5 ▲ 13 Operating profit (Rbn) 18,9 20,5 ▼ 8 Operating margin (%) 22,2 24,6 ▼ 10 Earnings per share (R) 20,10 23,05 ▼ 13 Headline earnings per share (R) 24,01 23,50 ▲ 2 Dividend per share (R) 5,70 5,70 Cash flow from

• perations (Rbn)

27,5 25,9 ▲ 6

group profitability underpinned by SA energy

• Synfuels production improvement continues
• Robust performance from SA Energy
• Oryx GTL excels, dry well write off in Mozambique
• Chemicals remain under pressure – lower demand

and margin squeeze, Arya partial impairment

• Operating profit negatively impacted by once-off

charges of R3,6bn – operating profit up by 9% excluding once-offs

• Other includes Merisol fair value adjustment and

Canada FEC gains

88% 3% 9%

Operating profit split

SA Energy Intl Energy Chemicals Other

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cash fixed costs increase compounded by challenging environment

16 484 18 003 (9%) (2%) (5%) 10 000 20 000 30 000 1H12 Uncontrollable factors¹ Period-on-period normalised Growth and study costs Maintenance and other² 1H13 Rm

Cash fixed costs

∆ (16%) 19 155

Cash fixed costs increase 6,9% in real terms

• excl. study, growth and
• nce-off costs
• 1. Includes the impact of inflation (5,1%), exchange rate effects (2,5%) and electricity price increases above normal inflation (1,4%)
• 2. Relates mainly to higher maintenance costs (R473m) due to shutdown at Polymers and increased renewal spend at Synfuels to restore the plant as well as

higher labour costs

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Operating profit (Rm) 1H13 1H12 % ∆ Mining 1 301 1 002 ▲ 30 Gas 2 038 1 461 ▲ 39 Synfuels 12 458 9 909 ▲ 26 Oil 907 1 099 ▼ 17 Other

• (2) ▲ 100

Total cluster 16 704 13 469 ▲ 24

SA energy: solid operational performance

• Mining benefited from higher sales prices and

volumes to Synfuels

• Gas improved sales prices and volumes continue
• Synfuels production volumes up 10% coupled

with higher prices

• Oil lower volumes at Natref due to extended

planned shutdown, partially offset by higher marketing and refining margins

Argon column for the 16th oxygen train, Secunda Thubelisha mine shaft, Secunda

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international energy: ORYX GTL excels in performance

• ORYX
• Production exceeds 90% design capacity
• Contributes 9% to group operating profit
• SPI
• Benefits from higher volumes in Mozambique

and Canada

• Canada upstream cash positive, higher

depreciation

• Mupeji-1 dry well write-off (US$53m)

Operating profit (Rm) 1H13 1H12 % ∆ SSI 1 235 1 033 ▲ 20 ORYX 1 743 1 584 ▲ 10 Funding growth (508) (551) ▲ 8 SPI (707) 121 Mozambique and Gabon 985 747 ▲ 32 Canada upstream (713) (373) ▼ 91 Exploration and growth (979) (253) ▼ 287 Total cluster 528 1 154 ▼ 54 Total cluster ex Canada 1 241 1 527 ▼ 19

ORYX GTL, Qatar Gas drilling rig, Mozambique

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chemicals: lower demand, margin pressure and negative impact of Arya impairment

• Polymers improved sales and production

volumes in South Africa

• Local margins remain under severe pressure
• Arya achieves utilisation rate of 84%,

negatively impacted by R1bn translation losses and R1,9bn partial impairment

• Solvents higher sales volumes but trading

environment remains challenging

• O&S US operations performing exceptionally

well, however Europe under margin pressure Operating profit (Rm) 1H13 1H12 % ∆ Polymers (2 440) 546 ▼ 547 Solvents 48 1 115 ▼ 96 O&S 1 567 1 660 ▼ 6 Other 836 1 018 ▼ 18 Total cluster 11 4 339 ▼ 100

Infrachem lab, South Africa Wax expansion, Sasolburg EPU5, Sasolburg

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cash generation funds growth opportunities

29,2 32,0 35,0 10 20 30 40 2012 act 2013 est 2014 est Rbn Capital investments Sustenance Growth 10 20 30 Sources Uses Sources Uses 1H12 1H13 Rbn Sources and uses of cash

Cash gen. by ops after tax Asset disposals Dividends Acquisitions and investments Capex

69% 2% 29% 65% 2% 33%

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we remain committed to our progressive dividend policy

2 4 6 10 20 30 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H13

%

ZAR Stable interim dividend Interim Final Dividend yield (year-end) 10 20 30 40 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H12 1H13 ZAR Growth in earnings per share Earnings per share Dividend per share

Rand TSR1 29%

• 1. Source: Bloomberg 31 December 2007 to 31 December 2012, assuming dividends are reinvested in securities

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FY13 profit outlook: strong management focus on improved operational performance and cost reduction

Macro Financial and operational

• Oil price expected to remain stable
• Product prices expected to remain volatile
• Resolution of European debt crisis and US debt

ceiling remains uncertain

• Rand remains biggest external factor impacting

profitability

• Weaker ZAR will improve profitability
• Production
• Synfuels FY13 target of 7,2 mt to 7,4 mt
• Maintain ORYX GTL at 80-90% utilisation

rate due to planned shutdown

• Arya utilisation rate at 75-80% due to

feedstock constraints

• Canada will show flat volumes
• Normalised cash fixed costs to exceed

South African PPI inflation

• Focus on volume growth, margin improvement

and cost reduction

• Expect continued pressure on Polymers

South Africa operating margins

• Arya divestiture process and currency

devaluation in Iran likely to impact fair value

• f investment

a compelling investment proposition

David E. Constable

Chief Executive Officer

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advancing to FEED and EPC

focusing on delivery

Grow upstream business Accelerate GTL growth Grow chemicals based

• n technology, market
• r feedstock advantage

New Energy Improve and grow existing asset base

• Mozambique blocks A,

M-10, Sofala, Inhassoro

• Canada shale gas

FEED/EPC

• US GTL
• Uzbekistan GTL
• Escravos GTL
• Integrated US chemicals
• US ethane cracker and derivatives
• Tetramerisation
• FT wax expansion
• Synfuels growth

programme

• Mine replacement

programme

• Ethylene purification
• Mozambique gas

pipeline

• C₃ stabilisation
• Coal Bed Methane, Botswana
• Australia
• Durban, South Africa offshore
• Mozambique electricity generation

delivering shareholder value sustainably

Exploration

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Do we have a leading low-cost feedstock advantage? Do we have a technology, scale of plant or

• perating know-how

that provides a competitive advantage? Do we have a product

• r market position

that provides a competitive advantage? Do we have the required project execution capability?

• ur investment considerations

four key questions

Feedstock Technology and production platform Market Capability

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why the United States?

four critically important answers

• Large availability of

low-cost ethane

• Rapid growth in gas

supply

• Arbitrage between

diesel and natural gas prices

• Lake Charles

competitive chemical hub

• Leading proven GTL

technology

• Off the shelf cracker

designs

• Existing market

position in ethylene value chain

• Superior product
• ffering
• Market for high quality

diesel and chemicals

• Phased execution

approach

• Integrated project

management team

• World-class contractors

with strong track record

• f delivery
• Informed contracting

strategies to mitigate schedule and cost

• verrun risks

Feedstock Technology and production platform Market Capability

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robust US diesel prices linked to international markets

US and international diesel prices will remain aligned

$129,8/bbl $128,7/bbl $130,2/bbl $132,6/bbl $126,2/bbl $129,2/bbl

Average 2012 diesel prices in $/bbl (Platts)

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compelling investment proposition

sustainable value creation

Solid foundation businesses

• Ability to monetise

hydrocarbon resources

• Capitalise on low

feedstock prices

• Demand for high quality

fuels and chemicals

• Strong project pipeline

including US mega- projects

• Solid balance sheet

underpinning growth

• Progressive dividend

policy

• Long-term shareholder

value

Existing asset base New growth opportunities Value creation

JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL

questions and answers