Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects Matthias v. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects Matthias v. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Solar Bankability Webinar November 22, 2016 Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects Matthias v. Armansperg, ACCELIOS Solar Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union Risk Modelling Software Modelling

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Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union

Solar Bankability Webinar

November 22, 2016

Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects

Matthias v. Armansperg, ACCELIOS Solar

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Risk Modelling Software

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Modelling software

Yield Aux-Excel Financing Aux-Excel Dashboard Excel Risk modelling Visual Basic Cashflow Excel

  • Solar Bankability Webinar

11/22/2016

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Risk Modelling Software

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Input parameters Modelling software

Yield Aux-Excel Financing Aux-Excel Dashboard Excel Risk modelling Visual Basic

  • Techn. risk

database

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Repair & maint. cost factors

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Business Model techn./finance

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Cashflow Excel

  • Solar Bankability Webinar

11/22/2016

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SLIDE 4

Risk Modelling Software

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Input parameters Modelling software Output parameters

Yield Aux-Excel Financing Aux-Excel Dashboard Excel Risk modelling Visual Basic Single risk impact

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

  • Techn. risk

database

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Repair & maint. cost factors

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Business Model techn./finance

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Risc scenario impact

BM1 BM2 BM3 BM4

Cashflow Excel

  • Solar Bankability Webinar

11/22/2016

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Business Model Selection

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11/22/2016

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Financial Performance of Business Models

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IRR (Base case)

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11/22/2016

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Financial Performance of Business Models

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IRR (Base case) Cumulative cash flow (Base case)

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11/22/2016

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Selection of Technical Risks

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11/22/2016

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Selection of Technical Risks

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11/22/2016

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Failure Cost Calculation

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Fixing costs due to repair/substitution (Euros)

  • Cost of detection (visual inspection, monitoring system, IR for hotspots, EL for crack cells, etc)
  • Cost of transportation
  • Cost of labour
  • Cost of repair/substitution of compontents
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11/22/2016

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Failure Cost Calculation

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Fixing costs due to repair/substitution (Euros)

  • Cost of detection (visual inspection, monitoring system, IR for hotspots, EL for crack cells, etc)
  • Cost of transportation
  • Cost of labour
  • Cost of repair/substitution of compontents

Downtime costs due to downtime and/or power loss (kWh to Euros)

  • Failures might cause partial or complete power loss
  • Downtime duration from occurence of failure till completion of repair/substitution
  • Failures at component level might affect other components (e.g. module failure might bring

down the whole string)

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11/22/2016

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Failure Categories

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The impact of risks is measured by failure categories based on a 12 month revenue reserve account

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11/22/2016

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Failure Category Overview

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Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4

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11/22/2016

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Failure Impact – Business Model 3 (Example)

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Failure impact on base case IRR of 5,52%

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11/22/2016

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Failure Impact – Business Model 3 (Example)

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Failure impact on base case IRR of 5,52% Distribution of failure costs

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11/22/2016

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Risk Scenario – Business Model 3 (Example)

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Risk Risk number Risk name Start Date Case Phase Risk 1 3020 Hotspot of modules 01.01.2012 Best Infant Risk 22) 3101 Flooding of inverter 01.08.2017 Worst Mid-life Risk 31) 3051 Lightning strike of inverter 01.06.2020 Worst Mid-life Risk 4 3011 Failure of bypass diode and juction box 01.10.2026 Worst Wear-out Comments 1) External cause independent from project phase 2) Business model specific risk, i.e. due to system design/technology, geographic/climatic conditions

Risk scenario - businss model 3

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11/22/2016

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Risk Scenario – Business Model 3 (Example)

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Risk Risk number Risk name Start Date Case Phase Risk 1 3020 Hotspot of modules 01.01.2012 Best Infant Risk 22) 3101 Flooding of inverter 01.08.2017 Worst Mid-life Risk 31) 3051 Lightning strike of inverter 01.06.2020 Worst Mid-life Risk 4 3011 Failure of bypass diode and juction box 01.10.2026 Worst Wear-out Comments 1) External cause independent from project phase 2) Business model specific risk, i.e. due to system design/technology, geographic/climatic conditions

Risk scenario - businss model 3

  • 10.000.000 EUR
  • 8.000.000 EUR
  • 6.000.000 EUR
  • 4.000.000 EUR
  • 2.000.000 EUR

0 EUR 2.000.000 EUR 4.000.000 EUR 6.000.000 EUR 20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 Base case Risk scenario

Cumulative cash flow

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11/22/2016

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Risk Mitigation Measures

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Guarantee Level 1 Guarantee Level 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year

Infant Phase Wear-out Phase Warranty Mid-life Phase Commissioning

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11/22/2016

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Risk Mitigation Measures

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Guarantee Level 1 Guarantee Level 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year

Infant Phase Wear-out Phase Warranty Mid-life Phase Commissioning

Commissioning check End of warranty check Mid-life advanced inspection

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11/22/2016

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Solar Bankability and Risk Management

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New capital market regulations like Basel III or Solvency II require thorough due diligence and risk management procedures

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11/22/2016

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Project Reports: www.solarbankability.eu

11/22/2016

  • Solar Bankability Webinar

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Final Public Workshop 7th-8th February 2017 Brussels, Belgium Enhancement of PV Investment Attractiveness Concept:

Target groups: Finance sector, insurance, EPCs, service providers, decision makers / broader attendance 1.5-day-Workshop including networking dinner Fully paid workshop for max. 120 participants Registration available: End of Oct 2016

Save the date: 7-8 Feb 2017!

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Funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649997. The content of this report reflects only the author’s view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains

Thank nk you! u!

Matthias v. Armansperg, ACCELIOS Solar