FGB Investor Presentation March 2016 1/46
Disclaimer This presentation provides information in summary form only and is not intended to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. No presentation ,express or implied, is made as to the fairness accuracy, completeness or correctness of information contained in this presentation, including the accuracy, likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any forecasts, prospects, synergies, returns, benefits or statements in relation to future matters contained in the presentation. The forward-looking statements are by their nature subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies and are based on numbers or estimates or assumptions that are subject to change (and in many cases are outside the control of FGB and its directors) which may cause the actual results or performance of FGB to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. To the maximum extent permitted by law, FGB disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this presentation including any forward-looking statements and disclaims any responsibility to update or revise any information or forward-looking statement to reflect any change in FGB’s financial condition, status or affairs or any change in the events, conditions or circumstances on which a statement is based. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither FGB nor its related bodies corporate, directors, employees or agents, nor any other person, accepts any liability, including, without limitation, any liability arising from fault or negligence, for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with it. This presentation should be read in conjunction with other publicly available material. Rounding differences may appear in some tables and charts. Further information including historical results and a description of the activities of FGB is available on our website, www.fgb.ae 2/46
Co Contents Operating Environment………………………………………………………………….....………………………………………………………………….....4/46 FGB Profile……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….8/46 Capital…………………………………………………...……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………15/46 Liquidity & Funding……………………………………………………....…………………………………………………………………………………………17/46 Asset Mix & Asset Quality………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………20/46 Appendix……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………22/46 3/46
Operating Asset Mix & FGB Profile Capital Liquidity & Funding Appendix Environment Asset Quality UAE Economic Overview F UNDAMENTALS REMAIN SOLID IN SPITE OF LOWER OIL PRICES R EAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTED TO SLOW DOWN TO 2.6% IN 2016 UAE federation was established in 1971 and comprises of seven % 8 Emirates; Politically stable country and highly favorable and 7 competitive business environment 1 . 6 Second largest economy in the GCC; 7 th largest oil reserves in the 5 world (97.8 Bn boe 2 ); Total population estimated at 9.8 Million 4 Strong financial position thanks to years of large fiscal and external 3 surpluses 2 1 In January 2016 and in the context of continued oil price weakness, 0 the IMF revised UAE real GDP growth forecast to 2.6% in 2016, down 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f from a previous forecast of 3.1% 2016 fiscal deficit is estimated at 7.5% of GDP; measures towards Economic Structure gradual fiscal consolidation are being implemented including subsidy 2014 2015e and Performance reforms, reductions in non-current expenditure, and introduction of a VAT framework across the GCC by 2018. Real GDP Growth (%) 4.6 3.0 Nominal GDP (USD Bn) A D IVERSIFIED ECONOMY ³ 399.5 339.1 Inflation Rate (CPI, % change) 2.3 3.7 Government Other Agriculture Services General government revenue (% GDP) 37.7 31.3 2% 1% 1% General government total expenditure Finance 32.8 36.8 Mining & & Net Lending (% GDP) 8% Quarrying Real Estate & 35% Fiscal Balance (% GDP) 5.0 (5.5) Business Services Transport Gross Debt (% GDP) 15.7 18.9 10% 9% Manufacturing Trade, Source: IMF, WEO Database, October 2015 9% Restaurant & Electricity, Gas, Hotels Construction Water ¹UAE ranked 17/140 in WEF 2015/2016 Global Competitiveness Report 14% 9% 2% 2 BP report June 2015 3 UAE National Bureau of Statistics, 2014 GDP 4/46
Operating Asset Mix & FGB Profile Capital Liquidity & Funding Appendix Environment Asset Quality Abu Dhabi Economic Overview A BU D HABI AT A GLANCE Largest Emirate in the UAE accounting for more than 80% of the Ras al-Khaymah country’s total land area; Population estimated at 2.8 Million 1. Umm al-Quwayn Abu Dhabi Nominal GDP estimated at USD 185Bn in FY16f 1 , that’s 52% of Sharjah Dubai UAE overall nominal GDP. Ajman 51% of 2014² GDP generated from the hydrocarbon sector; major non-oil Fujairah A BU D HABI GDP contributors include: construction, financial services, public administration and defense, and manufacturing. Transition underway towards a more diversified economy with a particular focus on the infrastructure and services sectors inline with Abu Dhabi Plan 2030. Strong net asset position providing a robust buffer to mitigate impact of lower oil prices. A BU D HABI – K EY S TATISTICS ¹ GDP BREAKDOWN BY SECTOR 2014² Economic Structure Construction Financial and 2014 2015e 2016f and Performance 10% Insurance 7% Real estate Nominal GDP (USD Bn) 259 206 185 5% Public Real GDP growth (%) 4.7 4.2 2.0 administration Inflation Rate (CPI, % change) 3.2 5.0 3.5 Mining and and defense Quarrying 6% Revenue/ GDP 39.7 35.8 34.3 51% Manufacturing Industries Expenditures/ GDP 39.6 38.2 42.5 5% Balance/ GDP 0.1 (2.5) (8.2) Transport and Wholesale Retail Liquid Assets/ GDP (%) 230.5 300.8 343.7 Storage Trade and Others 4% Repairing Services 8% 4% 5/46 1 S&P, February 2016 2 Statistics Center Abu Dhabi (SCAD) 2015, preliminary estimates
Operating Asset Mix & FGB Profile Capital Liquidity & Funding Appendix Environment Asset Quality The UAE in the context of lower oil prices UAE ENJOYS STRONG FISCAL BUFFER TO COUNTERACT UAE PMI 1 REMAINS IN EXPANSIONARY TERRITORY IMPACT OF LOWER OIL PRICES 200 30 65 25 60 150 20 53.1 55 100 15 50 10 50 45 5 0 0 40 UAE Qatar Kuwait Saudi Arabia Oman Bahrain Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Breakeven Oil Prices (USD/barrel) - LHS Fiscal Buffer (Years) - RHS Source: IMF, Oct. 2015 Source: Markit Economics USD 22B N NET DEPOSIT SURPLUS AS OF J AN ’16 EIBOR RISING BUT SPREAD OV OVER L IBOR IS STABLE 108% 100 110% 104% 103% 98% 100% 1.2 1.2 100% 98% 97% 80 96% 94% 95% 100% 94% 92% 1 1 90% 60 90% 37 0.8 0.8 40 USD Bn 27 23 22 80% 19 0.6 0.6 20 5 4 2 1 0 70% 0.4 0.4 0 0 -5 60% -10 -20 0.2 0.2 -19 -40 50% 0 0 Dec'03 Dec'04 Dec'05 Dec'06 Dec'07 Dec'08 Dec'09 Dec'10 Dec'11 Dec'12 Dec'13 Dec'14 Dec'15 Jan'16 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 LIBOR 3M EIBOR 3M E-L Spread (RHS) Net Deposit Surplus/ Deficit USD Bn L/D ratio 6/46 1 UAE Purchasing Manager Index is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector economy. The indicator is derived from individual diffusion indices which measure changes in output, new orders, employment, suppliers’ delivery and stocks of goods purchased.
Recommend
More recommend
