Federal Realty Investment Trust
Third Quarter 2016
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Federal Realty Investment Trust Third Quarter 2016 1 The Ultimate - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Federal Realty Investment Trust Third Quarter 2016 1 The Ultimate Balanced Business Plan With A Clear Path To Value Added Growth TACTICAL STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT REDEVELOPMENT Extensive Larger scale THE CENTER OF THE
Third Quarter 2016
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STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT
destinations
1.5 – 2.0% GROWTH
TACTICAL REDEVELOPMENT
remerchandising
0.5 – 0.75% GROWTH
SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS
redevelopment growth 0.0 – 1.0% GROWTH
SAME CENTER SHOPPING CENTER PORTFOLIO
upside
redevelopment
10%
“THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE”
3.0 – 3.5% GROWTH
CONSERVATIVE LOW COST OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE
low cost
raised
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Generate average of 3.25% of recurring core NOI growth ∙ Same Center POI (including redevelopment) of 4.1% on average over the last three years (better than forecasted in our 10- year business plan) ∙ 2016 expected to be ~3% which is impacted by our active repositioning of larger box space to unlock upside potential Invest $50M annually in redevelopment, at an 8% yield ∙ Completed and stabilized redevelopments totaling $152M at a weighted average return of 11% creating $150 - $180M of value over our investment, YTD since 2013 ∙ Pipeline of $246 million with a projected weighted average return of 8% Invest $200M annually in strategic redevelopment at 7% yield ∙ Invested $464 million in the 1st phase of Assembly Row and Pike & Rose which are open and operating ∙ Under construction on Phase 2 of Assembly Row and Pike & Rose totaling $481 million Strategically acquire $125M annually, at an initial yield of 5% ∙ Since 2014, acquired 5 properties – totaling $420M at an average cap rate of 5.5% ∙ Acquired remaining 70% interest in 6 shopping centers in January 2016 – totaling $154M Deliver FFO Growth (excluding prepayment premiums) of 7+% on average over a 10 year period ∙ Expect to deliver an average of ~7% FFO growth from 2013 through year end 2016, FFO growth expected to slow for 2017 as we continue to unlock value across the portfolio in order to meet our long term goals
1 Future results may differ from forecasts due to a variety of factors
Acquisitions Future Mixed-Use Current Mixed-Use Redevelopment SSNOI Baseline NOI
STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT
destinations
1.5 – 2.0% GROWTH
5 TACTICAL REDEVELOPMENT
remerchandising
0.5 – 0.75% GROWTH
SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS
redevelopment growth 0.0 – 1.0% GROWTH
SAME CENTER SHOPPING CENTER PORTFOLIO
upside
redevelopment
10%
“THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE”
3.0 – 3.5% GROWTH
CONSERVATIVE LOW COST OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE
low cost
raised
6 Total Square Feet Vacant 730,000 Average Prior Rent PSF $19.75 Percent Released 42% Rollover Percentage 37% Expected Rollover on Remaining SF 15 – 20% Average Downtime ~12 - 24 months
Executed Leases Rent Commencement Schedule(2) Leasing Update
(1) Reflects space vacant during 3Q 2016 (2) Reflects managements current estimates, actual results may differ.
High Quality Tenants
$1.2 $1.3 $1.5 $1.7 $1.9 $1.9 $2.1 $2.1 $8.4 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 Annual 2019
SOUTH FLORIDA SAN JOSE / SAN FRANCISCO LOS ANGELES BOSTON NEW YORK WASHINGTON, DC BALTIMORE PHILADELPHIA
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Source: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Research, May 2016
(1) Metropolitan Statistical Area
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77.1% 63.1% 61.9% 59.4% 55.5% 44.3% 39.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% FRT REG EQY KIM WRI BRX DDR Exposure to Top 20 MSAs
Peer Group Average: 53.9%
Source: Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Research, May 2016
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DDR EQY FRT KIM REG WRI BRX Peer Average National Average $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 $75,000 $80,000 $85,000 $90,000 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Median Household Income in a 3 Mile Radius Households Per Square Mile
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Population
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 1980-2015 2010-2015 Bethesda Row Bethesda, MD Third Street Promenade Santa Monica, CA Population Growth 141,179 125,526 129,375 122,404 5.9% 147,475 158,858 150,852 133,333 12.5% 1.2% 151,659 156,943 4.7%
Source: ESRI
Average Household Income
1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 1980-2015 2010-2015 Bethesda Row Bethesda, MD Third Street Promenade Santa Monica, CA 14.5% $116,752 379.7% $24,341 $60,532 $89,043 $101,963 $195,224 372.1% Average Household Income Growth 26.6% $41,352 $89,612 $134,115 $154,156
Source: Company Filings
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$26.67 $20.80 $19.78 $17.72 $14.94 $14.92 $12.90 $0.00 $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 FRT EQY REG WRI KIM DDR BRX Peer Group Average: $16.84
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Source: Company Filings Note: BRX excluded due to insufficient historical data.
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 FRT REG EQY WRI DDR KIM Avg In Place Avg New Lease 31.9% 14.6% 6.4% 7.0% 12.1% 12.4%
Source: Company filings (1) Only included in peer group results for periods in which data was reported (2) BRX data available as of 2013
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17% 22% 14% 16% 13% 15% 18% 22% 18% 20% 21% 10% 8% 9% 13% 20% 16% 17% 13% 16% 8% 18% 13% 12% 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 14% 12% 0%
2% 6% 10% 10% 11% 13% 9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 '98-YTD '16 Avg Average Increase Over Prior Year Rent Federal Realty Peer Group Average: DDR, REG, WRI(1), KIM(1), EQY, BRX(2)
Source: Company Filings Note: Same store growth figures include redevelopments. BRX excluded due to insufficient historical data.
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3.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% FRT WRI EQY KIM REG DDR
TACTICAL REDEVELOPMENT
0.5 – 0.75% GROWTH
15 SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS
redevelopment growth 0.0 – 1.0% GROWTH
SAME CENTER SHOPPING CENTER PORTFOLIO
upside
redevelopment
10%
“THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE”
3.0 – 3.5% GROWTH
CONSERVATIVE LOW COST OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE
low cost
raised
STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT
destinations
1.5 – 2.0% GROWTH
Chelsea Commons Residential Westgate
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Projected Projected Cost to Anticipated Property Location ROI Cost Date Stabilization The Point El Segundo, CA 8% $88 $84 2017 Congressional Plaza Rockville, MD 7% $23 $22 2016 Westgate Center San Jose, CA 9% $21 $21 Stabilized Towson Residential Towson, MD 6% $20 $5 2018 Plaza Del Mercado Silver Spring, MD 8% $16 $8 2017 Tower Shops Davie, FL 12% $15 $13 2017 Melville Mall Huntington, NY 6% $15 $11 Stabilized Del Mar Village Boca Raton, FL 7% $11 $3 2018 Montrose Crossing Rockville, MD 11% $10 $0 2018 Santana Row San Jose, CA 7% $5 $4 2017 The AVENUE at White Marsh White Marsh, MD 10% $5 $3 2017 Willow Lawn Richmond, VA 8% $5 $4 Stabilized Eastgate Crossing Chapel Hill, NC 8% $4 $1 2017 Free State Shopping Center Bowie, MD 8% $4 $3 2017 Mercer Mall Lawrenceville, NJ 10% $2 $1 2016 Wynnewood Wynnewood, PA 7% $2 $2 Stabilized Total Active Redevelopment projects 8% $246 $185 Façade and interior mall renovation, addition of food court and pad site New 105 unit 5-story apartment building with above grade parking Demolition of former grocery anchor space to construct spaces for new grocery anchor and fitness center tenants Opportunity Addition of 90,000 square feet of retail and 25,000 square feet of office space New 48 unit rental apartment building and conversion of office space into 39,000 square feet of retail anchor space to accommodate new tenant Demolition of 10,000 square foot restaurant building to construct an 18,000 square foot multi-tenant pad building Addition of two retail kiosks and open air plaza upgrades Addition of two new pad sites totaling 13,000 square feet, a new 3,600 square foot restaurant building, and a drive up ATM Construction of two new in-line retail spaces totaling 17,400 square feet Addition of 50,000 square foot pad building Redevelopment of 92,000 square foot vacant anchor space to convert into two anchor spaces for a value retailer and a sporting goods tenant and revamp current anchor space Demolition of small shop spaces and relocation of tenants to accommodate new 37,000 square foot fitness center tenant New 7,400 square foot multi-tenant pad building on site of existing gas station Demolition of 26,000 square foot vacant building to allow for construction of new 12,500 square foot pad building for new daycare tenant Demolition of existing 3,000 square foot pad building to allow for construction of a multi-restaurant pad building totaling 5,600 square feet Conversion of obsolete 2nd floor office space to residential
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Before Redevelopment Redevelopment After Redevelopment Total Combined Investment $209 million + $75 million = $284 million Total Combined NOI $12 million + $8 million = $20 million Incremental Value Creation*: $100 million
*Assumes 4.5% cap rate
PLAZA EL SEGUNDO THE POINT
Rosecrans Avenue
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and office space
located at the prominent intersection
Rosecrans Ave & Sepulveda Blvd. in El Segundo, CA
Lucky Brand Soul Cycle Mendocino Farms North Italia Michael Stars ShopHouse True Food Kitchen Lou & Grey Athleta
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Before Redevelopment Redevelopment After Redevelopment Total Combined Investment $175 million + $40 million = $215 million Total Combined NOI $14 million + $7 million = $21 million Incremental Value Creation*: $100 million
*Assumes no cap rate compression
Tower Shops in Davie, FL 394,000 square feet Acquired 2011 Mercer Mall in Lawrenceville, NJ 528,000 square feet Acquired 2003
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strategy
improvements
the back of the Property (A)
building built with Trader Joe’s as the anchor (B)
possible for the future….
A B B
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remerchandising strategy in 2009
roof and parking panel system
Bank
Nordstrom Rack and hhgregg with REI which opened in 2015 and improved overall merchandising for the property
development currently underway to add 2 new restaurants
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STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT
1.5 – 2.0% GROWTH
26 TACTICAL REDEVELOPMENT
remerchandising
0.5 – 0.75% GROWTH
SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS
redevelopment growth 0.0 – 1.0% GROWTH
SAME CENTER SHOPPING CENTER PORTFOLIO
upside
redevelopment
10%
“THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE”
3.0 – 3.5% GROWTH
CONSERVATIVE LOW COST OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE
low cost
raised
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(1) See filed 8-k for additional disclosure and footnotes Projected Total Costs to Property ROI Cost Date 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expected Opening Timeframe Assembly Row Phase I 5-6% $196 Complete 90% 100% 100% 100% Phase II 7% $270 - 285 $175
90% Opening projected 3Q 2017 through 2Q 2018 741,500 SF Partners Healthcare office space (built by Partners) opened in 2016 Condos
$21 Projected closings to commence 2Q 2018 Pike & Rose Phase I 6-7% $265-270 $264 50% 75% 90% 100% Retail & office open Residential opened in 2014 (174 units) and 2015/16 (319 units) Phase II 6-7% $200 - 207 $81
85% Opening projected 3Q 2017 through 2Q 2018 Condos
$19 Projected closings to commence 2Q 2018 Santana Row 700 Santana Row 7% $205 - 215 $14
Commencing construction 4Q 2016 Opening projected 2019 Projected POI Delivered (as a % of Total) For Year Ended December 31,
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THE HENRI at Pike & Rose 272 Apartment Units 45,000 SF of Retail THE MONTAJE at Assembly Row 447 Apartment Units 40,000 SF of Retail
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Levare
108 Unit Residential Building
Misora
212 Unit Residential Building
Splunk Building
Class A Office Building
Total Cost $35 million $76 million $113 million ROI 9% 8% 9% Incremental Value Creation $35 million $60 million $100 million
(1)
(1) Value of NOI less Cost. Assumes at 4.5% cap rate.
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Project Totals:
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100% of Phase 1 retail GLA occupied
∙ Tenants significantly exceeding sales targets
Office space 100% occupied All-in there will be over 6,000 employees at Assembly Row by mid 2017
∙ Partners HealthCare has moved ~2,000 of 4,500 employees into their new building, additional ~2,500+ employees on track to move in by early 2017
Broke ground on $280 million Phase 2 with an expected return of 7%...
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100% of Phase 1 retail GLA occupied
∙ Tenants significantly exceeding sales targets
Office space 100% occupied All-in there will be over 6,000 employees at Assembly Row by mid 2017
∙ Partners HealthCare has moved ~2,000 of 4,500 employees into their new building, additional ~2,500+ employees on track to move in by early 2017
Broke ground on $280 million Phase 2 with an expected return of 7%...
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(Partners’ Healthcare Building)
2017/2018
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Project Totals:
Retail 100% occupied Office space is 100% occupied ∙ Achieved average rents of $43 Broke ground on Phase 2 ∙ Additional 450 parking spaces delivered in Q4 2015 319 unit high-rise Pallas delivered in Q2 2016 Phase 1 residential is 90% leased Retailers include:
Del Frisco’s Grille Carluccio’s Summer House & Stella Barra iPic Theaters AMP by Strathmore Francesca’s Gap / GapKids Roti La Madeleine Sport & Health Seasons Olive Oil Lucky Brand ShopHouse &Pizza Nike
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Pinstripes
building
brand hotel
Apple Google Stanford Santa Clara Sunnyvale 500 Santana Row 41
700 Santana Row
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1 Value of NOI less capital. Assumes a 4.5% cap rate.
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1 Value of NOI less capital. Assumes a 4.5% cap rate.
spaces
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Lot 11
Lot 9
Lot 12 residential Future Development Development Underway
Santana West
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1 Represents an estimate of future phases. Actual investment may differ.
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Future Property Location Acreage Commercial Residential Hotel Potential SF1 Assembly Row Somerville, MA 44 597,000 447 apts 160 rms 2.5M Bethesda Row Bethesda, MD 12 534,000 180 apts
Pike & Rose North Bethesda, MD 24 430,000 765 apts 177 rms 1.7M Santana Row San Jose, CA 56 510,000 662 apts 215 rms 1.6M Village at Shirlington Arlington, VA 30 261,000
Federal Plaza Rockville, MD 18 251,000
Pan Am Fairfax, VA 25 227,000
Pike 7 Tysons Corner, VA 13 164,000
Rollingwood Silver Spring, MD 14
CocoWalk Coconut Grove, FL 3 198,000
Darien Darien, CT 9 95,000
Montrose Crossing North Bethesda, MD 35 363,000
San Antonio Center Mountain View, CA 31 365,000
Shops at Sunset Place South Miami, FL 10 515,000
Total 15 Properties 324 4,510,000 2,336 apts 552 rms 17M Current/In Process SF
1 Potential SF are estimates. Actual SF could differ significantly when final redevelopment plans are completed.
47 SOUT OUTH MIAMI MI CORAL G L GABLE LES COCONUT ONUT G GROV OVE CORA ORAL W WAY WEST F FLAGL GLER ER LITTL TTLE H HAVANA THE R HE ROADS BRI BRICKELL DOW OWNT NTOWN VIR IRGINIA IA K KEY KEY B BISC ISCAYNE THE S HE SHOPS A AT SUNSE SET P PLACE CE CO COCO COWALK
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1 Represents an estimate of future phases. Actual investment may differ.
∙ Superior location and visibility next to mass transit and the University of Miami
miles): ∙ Population: 100,389 ∙ Average HHI: $118,806 ∙ Daytime Population: 80,009
entitlements.
(negotiations underway to gain control early).
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1 Represents an estimate of future phases. Actual investment may differ.
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1 Represents an estimate of future phases. Actual investment may differ.
SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS
redevelopment growth
0.0 – 1.0% GROWTH
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SAME CENTER SHOPPING CENTER PORTFOLIO
upside
redevelopment
10%
“THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE”
3.0 – 3.5% GROWTH
CONSERVATIVE LOW COST OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE
low cost
raised
STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT
destinations
1.5 – 2.0% GROWTH
TACTICAL REDEVELOPMENT
remerchandising
0.5 – 0.75% GROWTH
Acquired: October 2015 515,000 sf lifestyle center / 10 acres
Shops at Sunset Place
Acquired: May 2015 198,000 sf lifestyle center / 3 acres
CocoWalk
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Acquired: January 2015 376,000 sf neighborhood center / 33 acres
San Antonio Center
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Current Redevelopment Opportunities Transaction Overview
partnership in January 2016
Plaza Del Mercado
Cost: $16 million ROI: 8% Demolition of former grocery anchor space to construct spaces for new grocery anchor and fitness center tenants
Free State Shopping Center
Cost: $4 million ROI: 8% Demolition of 26k SF vacant building to allow for construction of new 12.5k SF pad building for new daycare tenant
STRATEGIC REDEVELOPMENT
destinations
1.5 – 2.0% GROWTH
55 TACTICAL REDEVELOPMENT
remerchandising
0.5 – 0.75% GROWTH
CONSERVATIVE LOW COST OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE
cost
SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS
redevelopment growth 0.0 – 1.0% GROWTH
SAME CENTER SHOPPING CENTER PORTFOLIO
upside
redevelopment
10%
“THE CENTER OF THE UNIVERSE”
3.0 – 3.5% GROWTH
coupon of 3.625% and an effective rate of 3.750%
lowered to LIBOR + 82.5 bps in April 2016
moderate equity through our ATM all while maintaining consistent debt to EBITDA and interest coverage metrics
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Source: Company Filings, SNL Financial
Debt to Market Cap Net Debt to EBITDA
20% 31% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% FRT Peers 5.2x 5.9x 4.4x 4.6x 4.8x 5.0x 5.2x 5.4x 5.6x 5.8x 6.0x FRT Peers
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Source: Company Filings, SNL Financial
FRT
BRX DDR KIM WRI SPG BXP EQR FRT 3/31/14
Peer Group Average
3.60 3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 Weighted Average Interest Rate (%) Weighted Average Debt Maturity
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Source: Company Filings
4.6x 4.4x 3.6x 3.6x 3.5x 2.5x 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x FRT EQY REG WRI BRX DDR Fixed Charge Ratio % Variable Debt
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Source: Company Filings, SNL Financial 1) 3Q 2016 Annualized.
6.1%
60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% FRT REG KIM WRI EQY DDR Dividend CAGR (2005 - 2016(1)) 2016 FFO Payout Ratio
Source: SNL Financial, Company Filings
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84.6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016E FRT REG EQY KIM WRI DDR
$0.12 $3.92
1967 2016
The Longest Record in the REIT Industry Current Annualized Dividend Per Share: $3.92
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Asian and Russian financial crisis
1998
Inflation in U.S. hits 14.8%
1980
Inflation hits 40- year low of 1.1%
2004
Great Recession
2009
OPEC imposes
the U.S.
1973
Certain matters discussed within this press release may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities
give no assurance that its expectations will be attained. These factors include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described in our Annual Report
favorable rents as leases expire;
anticipated or ongoing property redevelopments or renovation projects that we do pursue may cost more, take more time to complete, or fail to perform as expected;
aspects of certain projects, requires spending a substantial amount upfront in infrastructure, and assumes receipt of public funding which has been committed but not entirely funded;
receive from our properties may be lower than expected, that new acquisitions may fail to perform as expected, that competition for acquisitions could result in increased prices for acquisitions, that costs associated with the periodic maintenance and repair or renovation of space, insurance and other operations may increase, that environmental issues may develop at our properties and result in unanticipated costs, and, because real estate is illiquid, that we may not be able to sell properties when appropriate;
interest rates that would result in increased interest expense; and
adverse consequences of the failure to qualify as a REIT. Given these uncertainties, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements that we make, including those in this press release. Except as may be required by law, we make no promise to update any of the forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should carefully review the risks and risk factors included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 9, 2016.
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CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS
1626 East Jefferson Street Rockville, MD 20852-4041 PH 301.998.8100 FX 301.998.3700
REGIONAL OFFICES
BOSTON 450 Artisan Way, Suite 320 Somerville, MA 02145 PH 617.684.1500 FX 617.623.3601 LOS ANGELES 710-B South Allied Way El Segundo, CA 90245 PH 310.414.5280 FX 310.333.0766 PHILADELPHIA 50 East Wynnewood Road, Suite 200 Wynnewood, PA19096 PH 610.896.5870 FX 610.896.5876 SAN JOSE 356 Santana Row, Suite 1005 San Jose, CA 95128 PH 408.551.4600 FX 408.551.4616
www.federalrealty.com