Wiener Institut für The Vienna Institute for www.wiiw.ac.at Internationale International Economic Wirtschaftsvergleiche Studies wiiw FDI Report 2016 FDI IN CENTRAL, EAST AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE: SLUMP DESPITE GLOBAL UPTURN EUROPE: SLUMP DESPITE GLOBAL UPTURN Dr. Gábor Hunya, senior economist, wiiw hunya@wiiw.ac.at
2 Erratic fluctuations of FDI in the EU-CEE and Russia FDI inflows in 2015 as against 2014: EU-CEE -43%, Western Balkans and Turkey: +48%, CIS-3 and Ukraine: -3%, Russia: -60% EU-CEE Western Balkans Turkey CIS-3 + Ukraine Russia 45000 40000 35000 35000 30000 EUR million 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EU-CEE = new EU members of Central and Eastern Europe, CIS-3 = Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova. Source: wiiw FDI Database .
3 FDI – limited contribution to gross fixed capital formation FDI inflow in % of GFCF, 2008-2015 EU-CEE Western Balkans + Turkey CIS-4 + Ukraine 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: wiiw FDI Database and wiiw Annual Database.
4 FDI less important than EU transfers in financing investments Transfers on the capital account, FDI net (assets minus liabilities) and FDI liabilities (inflows), in % of GFCF 35 Hungary 30 Transfers FDI net FDI liability 25 Czech Republic 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 5 5 0 0 -5 -5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20 20 Poland Romania 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: wiiw FDI Database.
5 Russia: FDI collapse and capital flight (EUR 15 bn in 2015) Three quarters of FDI in tax havens – round-tripping Russian capital FDI in- and outflows, EUR billion FDI inflow FDI outflow 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: wiiw FDI Database.
6 More greenfield investment in 2015, but still behind past years Greenfield FDI projects 2010-2015: number of projects, announced capital investment in EUR million and number of jobs to be created Number of projects (right scale) Capital investment Job creation 350000 2500 300000 2000 2000 250000 1500 200000 150000 1000 100000 500 50000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: fdimarkets.com.
7 Greenfield investment grew mainly in manufacturing Number of greenfield projects and capital investment pledged in greenfield projects by activity, EUR million, 2013-2015 Manufacturing Sales, logistics Electricity Construction Advanced services Other 70000 1600 1400 1400 60000 60000 1200 Number of projects 50000 1000 40000 EUR mn 800 30000 600 20000 400 10000 200 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 Source: fdimarkets.com.
8 WIIW FDI REPORT 2016: FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe: Slump despite Global Upturn � 149 pages including 105 Tables, 10 Figures and 5 Boxes, analysis and methodological explanations � hardcopy: EUR 70.00 (PDF: EUR 65.00) � Order via wiiw-website www.wiiw.ac.at, per E-Mail koehrl@wiiw.ac.at Online acces to wiiw FDI Database via www.data.wiiw.ac.at Annual fee: EUR 160.00
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