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Exploration of Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in the Western Renewable Energy in the Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) Initiative Andrew Mills, Amol Phadke, and Ryan Wiser Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory February 2010


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SLIDE 1

Exploration of Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in the Western Renewable Energy in the Western Renewable Energy Zone (WREZ) Initiative

Andrew Mills, Amol Phadke, and Ryan Wiser

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory February 2010

Energy Analysis Department

1 This analysis was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, Permitting, Siting and Analysis Division

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SLIDE 2

Resource and Transmission Expansion Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline

1. Motivation and Scope 2 Summary of Key Findings 2. Summary of Key Findings 3. Framework for Comparing WREZ Resources

a) Bus-bar Costs b) Transmission and Line Losses Cost c) Market Value Adjustment Factors d) Advantages and Disadvantages of WREZ Model and Framework

4. Results

a) Impact of Level of Renewable Energy (RE) Demand b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone c) Alternative Scenarios with 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone d) Alternative Scenarios with Tradable Renewable Energy Credits

5 C l i d F t R h

Energy Analysis Department

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5. Conclusions and Future Research

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SLIDE 3

Project Overview Project Overview

Motivation: The WREZ Initiative identified renewable resource hubs composed

  • f environmentally preferred, high quality resources sufficient to justify building

new high-voltage transmission

  • Which WREZ renewable resources might be economically attractive for

meeting aggressive renewable energy (RE) targets in the West?

  • What transmission might need to be built to access those resources? Who

should cooperate in developing the transmission?

  • What factors contribute to the costs of meeting renewable energy targets?

Scope: Examine at a screening-level the sensitivity of least-cost WREZ

resource selection, required transmission expansion, and costs of meeting aggressive Western RE targets to different assumptions and policy decisions

  • How do resource selection and transmission expansion decisions change with

assumptions and changes in policies?

  • What are the important assumptions or factors that should be explicitly

Energy Analysis Department

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What are the important assumptions or factors that should be explicitly considered in more-detailed resource and transmission planning forums?

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SLIDE 4

Summary of Key Findings Summary of Key Findings

  • Increasing renewable energy demands increase costs, as less economically

attractive resources are required to meet higher targets

  • Wind energy is the largest contributor to meeting WECC wide renewable
  • Wind energy is the largest contributor to meeting WECC-wide renewable

energy demands when only resources from the WREZ resource hubs are considered

  • Hydropower, biomass, and geothermal contributions do not change

significantly with increasing renewable demand or changes to key significantly with increasing renewable demand or changes to key assumptions

  • Key uncertainties can shift the balance between wind and solar in the

renewable resource portfolio

  • The costs of meeting renewable energy targets within WECC are

heterogeneous without Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)

  • Transmission investment costs are substantial, but are only a fraction of the

costs required to meet a 33% renewable energy target costs required to meet a 33% renewable energy target

  • Long transmission lines can be economically justified in particular cases, but

the majority of transmission lines are found to be relatively short

  • Transmission expansion needs and overall WECC-wide costs can be

d d th h th f REC

Energy Analysis Department

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reduced through the use of RECs

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SLIDE 5

Framework for Comparing WREZ Framework for Comparing WREZ Resources: The WREZ Model Resources: The WREZ Model Resources: The WREZ Model Resources: The WREZ Model

300 350

Renewable Resource Ranking for Southwest Load Zone:

st

300 350

Renewable Resource Ranking for Southwest Load Zone:

st

  • WECC load is divided

into 20 load zones ( i il j

50 100 150 200 250

Bus-bar Cost ($/MWh)

Bus-Bar Cost ($/MWh)

Bus-bar Cos ($/MWh)

50 100 150 200 250

Bus-bar Cost ($/MWh)

Bus-Bar Cost ($/MWh)

Bus-bar Cos ($/MWh)

(primarily major metropolitan areas; at least one per state)

  • 55 WREZ hubs

150 200 250 300 350

vered Cost ($/MWh)

+

Transmission Cost ($/MWh)

Geothermal Solar Wind

elivered Cost ($/MWh)

150 200 250 300 350

vered Cost ($/MWh)

+

Transmission Cost ($/MWh)

Geothermal Solar Wind

elivered Cost ($/MWh)

55 WREZ hubs identified in WECC

  • Most economically

attractive resources h th l t

50 100

Deliv (

250 300 350

Cost

+

Integration Cost ($/MWh)

  • Biomass

Hydro

ivered Wh) De

50 100

Deliv (

250 300 350

Cost

+

Integration Cost ($/MWh)

  • Biomass

Hydro

ivered Wh) De

have the lowest adjusted delivered cost

  • Limited, high quality

resources are allocated

50 100 150 200 250

Adjusted Delivered C ($/MWh)

Capacity Value ($/MWh)

  • TOD Energy Value ($/MWh)

Adjusted Deli Cost ($/MW

50 100 150 200 250

Adjusted Delivered C ($/MWh)

Capacity Value ($/MWh)

  • TOD Energy Value ($/MWh)

Adjusted Deli Cost ($/MW

resources are allocated to the load zone with the highest economic benefit of procuring that resource Energy Analysis Department

5

0 31 36 8 73 3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621

Energy Generated

0 31 36 8 73 3 110 146 183 219 256 292 329 365 402 438 475 511 548 584 621

Energy Generated

resource

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SLIDE 6

Bus Bus-

  • bar Costs Vary By Technology and

bar Costs Vary By Technology and Resource Quality Resource Quality Resource Quality Resource Quality

Renewable Technology Total Capital Cost ($/kW) Capacity Factor Bus-Bar Cost with Starting Point Assumptions ($/MWh) Energy- Weighted Median (10th; 90th Percentile) Energy- Weighted Median (10th; 90th Percentile) Energy- Weighted Median (10th; 90th Percentile) Hydro 4,263 (1,106 ; 9,818) 50% (39% ; 51%) 128 (27 ; 376) Renewable Technology Biomass 3,659 (3,515 ; 3,824) 85% (85% ; 85%) 115 (109 ; 147) Geothermal 5,064 (4,355 ; 5,901) 80% (80% ; 90%) 92 (78 ; 108) Wind 2,418 (2,396 ; 2,469) 31% (28% ; 39%) 92 (73 ; 121) W t C l d S l Wet Cooled Solar Thermal with Storage 7,473 (7,465 ; 7,556) 38% (30% ; 40%) 163 (155 ; 193) Wet Cooled Solar Thermal without Storage 5,174 (5,165 ; 5,352) 27% (21% ; 29%) 169 (161 ; 212) Dry Cooled Solar Thermal 7 674 (7 665 7 756) 36% (29% 37%) 175 (170 201) y with Storage 7,674 (7,665 ; 7,756) 36% (29% ; 37%) 175 (170 ; 201) Fixed PV 4,576 (4,565 ; 4,690) 25% (22% ; 26%) 156 (150 ; 179)

Starting point assumptions from WREZ model include 30% Investment Tax Credit

Energy Analysis Department

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g p p (ITC) for all U.S. resources, a 15-year debt term for all non-solar technologies, and a 25-year debt term for solar technologies; Base solar technology assumed to be wet-cooled solar thermal with storage

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SLIDE 7

Transmission Costs Depend on Transmission Costs Depend on Distance from Resource to Load Zone Distance from Resource to Load Zone Distance from Resource to Load Zone Distance from Resource to Load Zone

  • All WREZ resources are assumed to

require new transmission capacity require new transmission capacity

  • Transmission distance is largely based
  • n following existing rights-of-way
  • Starting point transmission costs are

allocated assuming a pro-rata share of a single circuit 500 kV line g

  • Transmission utilization is assumed to

equal capacity factor of renewable resource resource

  • Transmission losses are 0.7% per 100

miles

Energy Analysis Department

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  • Transmission cost of 500 kV line total

an assumed $1,564/MW-mi

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SLIDE 8

Market Value Adjustment Factors Vary Market Value Adjustment Factors Vary by Technology and Load Combination by Technology and Load Combination by Technology and Load Combination by Technology and Load Combination

Integration Cost ($/MWh) Market Value Adjustment ($/MWh) (10th; 90th (10th; 90th TOD Energy Value Assuming $65/MWh Average Marginal Production Cost ($/MWh) Capacity Value Assuming $156/kW-yr Resource Adequacy Cost ($/MWh) Technology Median (10th; 90th Percentile) Median (10th; 90th Percentile) Assumption Median Hydro 65.4 (60.9 ; 72.7) 21.7 (5.0 ; 35.4) N/A 87.0 Biomass 65.0 (65.0 ; 65.0) 17.8 (17.8 ; 17.8) N/A 82.8 Geothermal 64.4 (63.7 ; 65.0) 13.5 (11.1 ; 20.0) N/A 77.9 Wind 63.4 (55.7 ; 70.8) 9.7 (5.8 ; 25.7) 5.0 68.1 Wet Cooled Solar Thermal with Storage 71.0 (69.5 ; 73.5) 38.5 (13.7 ; 43.7) N/A 109.5 Wet Cooled Solar Thermal without Storage 69.0 (67.7 ; 71.4) 30.2 (8.8 ; 40.5) 2.5 96.7 Dry Cooled Solar Thermal 70 9 (69 4 73 3) 36 1 (14 7 41 3) N/A 106 9

TOD energy value is based on correlation of renewable generation profile and marginal

Dry Cooled Solar Thermal with Storage 70.9 (69.4 ; 73.3) 36.1 (14.7 ; 41.3) N/A 106.9 Fixed PV 68.3 (67.6 ; 70.3) 22.7 (15.6 ; 30.0) 2.5 88.5

Energy Analysis Department

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TOD energy value is based on correlation of renewable generation profile and marginal production costs at load zone. Capacity value is based on renewable generation during top 10% of load hours at load zone. Integration coststhe costs to manage variability and uncertaintyare technology specific and are based on previous wind integration studies.

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SLIDE 9

Advantages and Disadvantages of Advantages and Disadvantages of WREZ Model and Framework WREZ Model and Framework WREZ Model and Framework WREZ Model and Framework

Advantages:

  • Simple and transparent

Disadvantages:

  • Renewable resource database
  • Simple and transparent
  • Broadly accessible: Excel-

based

  • User can quickly define own
  • Renewable resource database
  • nly characterizes resources in

WREZ hubs

  • Pro-rata allocation of
  • User can quickly define own

input assumptions

  • Screening tool identifies factors

that should be carefully transmission costs ignores lumpiness of transmission

  • Market value adjustment

factors do not change with y evaluated in more detailed analysis

  • Appropriate tool for

understanding policy decisions factors do not change with renewable penetration level (particularly important for TOD energy and capacity value) understanding policy decisions

  • Tool incorporates main drivers
  • f economic attractiveness
  • Assumes no existing

transmission capacity and allocates full cost of new transmission to renewable

Energy Analysis Department

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resources

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SLIDE 10

WREZ Model Used to Examine Several WREZ Model Used to Examine Several Cases Centered Around 33% RE Target Cases Centered Around 33% RE Target Cases Centered Around 33% RE Target Cases Centered Around 33% RE Target

Cases Considered

Individual best resources Competition without RECs Competition with RECs Transmission No Federal ITC/PTC Lower Resource Adequacy Costs Solar Sensitivity WECC- wide RECs RECs with Limits Wind Sensitivity RE Target Levels 33% RE Lower Unit Cost: 500 kV HVDC Technology Costs Technology Choice 25% RE 12% High Utilization for Wind and Solar Higher Integration Costs O l Sh t Technology Costs

Energy Analysis Department

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12% RE Only Shorter Lines

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SLIDE 11

Resource and Transmission Expansion Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline

1. Motivation and Scope 2 Summary of Key Findings 2. Summary of Key Findings 3. Framework for Comparing WREZ Resources

a) Bus-bar costs b) Transmission and Line Losses Cost c) Market Value Adjustment Factors d) Advantages and Disadvantages of WREZ Model and Framework

4. Results

a) Impact of Level of Renewable Energy (RE) Demand b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone c) Alternative Scenarios with 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone d) Alternative Scenarios with Tradable Renewable Energy Credits

5 C l i d F t R h

Energy Analysis Department

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5. Conclusions and Future Research

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SLIDE 12

Increasing RE Targets Increases Costs Increasing RE Targets Increases Costs and Required Transmission Investment and Required Transmission Investment and Required Transmission Investment and Required Transmission Investment

Impact (TWh/yr) (GW) (TWh/yr) (GW) (TWh/yr) (GW) 33% Renewables 12% Renewables 25% Renewables

  • Wind is the largest source of

incremental renewable energy when the renewables target

Geothermal 22.7 3.0 28.6 3.9 28.6 3.9 Biomass 7.9 1.1 17.2 2.3 20.7 2.8 Hydro 6.5 1.5 12.0 2.7 16.7 3.7 Resource C iti

when the renewables target increases from 12% to 25%

  • Equal amounts of wind and solar

(wet-cooled solar thermal with thermal storage) are added when

y Wind 42.2 13.2 108.5 36.1 144.3 48.2 Solar 0.0 0.0 47.1 13.7 85.5 25.0 A Adj t d Composition

thermal storage) are added when western RE target increases from 25% to 33%

  • Increasing the RE target from

12% to 33% WECC-wide

Average Adjusted Delivered Cost ($/MWh) Marginal Adjusted Delivered Cost ($/MWh) 23.6 33.9 37.2 54.7 43.2 61.5 Costs

12% to 33% WECC wide increases the average costs of renewable energy by $20/MWh

  • Transmission investment costs

are substantial, but are only

New Capacity (GW-mi) Transmission Investment ($ Billion) Transmission and Transmission Expansion 5.9 17.0 26.3 4,123 11,958 18,510

are substantial, but are only about 15% of delivered cost at all RE target levels Note: Marginal adjusted cost indicates the cost of the resource that would be

Energy Analysis Department

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Losses Cost as Percentage of Delivered Cost 15% 14% 16%

the cost of the resource that would be procured if the RE target were increased by a very small amount

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SLIDE 13

Resource and Transmission Expansion Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline

1. Motivation and Scope 2 Summary of Key Findings 2. Summary of Key Findings 3. Framework for Comparing WREZ Resources

a) Bus-bar costs b) Transmission and Line Losses Cost c) Market Value Adjustment Factors d) Advantages and Disadvantages of WREZ Model and Frameworks

4. Results

a) Impact of Level of Renewable Energy (RE) Demand b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone c) Alternative Scenarios with 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone d) Alternative Scenarios with Tradable Renewable Energy Credits

5 C l i d F t R h

Energy Analysis Department

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5. Conclusions and Future Research

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SLIDE 14

Wind Is the Largest Contributor to Meeting Wind Is the Largest Contributor to Meeting the 33% RE Target with WREZ Resources the 33% RE Target with WREZ Resources the 33% RE Target with WREZ Resources the 33% RE Target with WREZ Resources

60 yr) 6,000 i) Hydro Biomass Wind Solar Geothermal GW-mi 30 40 50 Resource (TWh/y 3,000 4,000 5,000 Capacity (GW-m 10 20 rgy From Each R 1,000 2,000 , w Transmission C Albuquerque Billings Boise Calgary Casper Denver El Paso Las Vegas Los Angeles Phoenix Portland Reno Sacramento alt Lake City San Diego co/Bay Area Seattle Spokane Tucson er, Canada Ener

  • New

A L S Sa San Francisc Vancouve

  • Nine load zones procure only wind in the Base case
  • Solar thermal is second largest resource and is

Energy Analysis Department

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particularly important in the Southwest

  • Transmission expansion driven by Seattle, San

Francisco, Calgary, Los Angeles, and Vancouver

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SLIDE 15

High Bus High Bus-

  • bar Costs of Solar Are Offset

bar Costs of Solar Are Offset by High TOD Energy and Capacity Value by High TOD Energy and Capacity Value by High TOD Energy and Capacity Value by High TOD Energy and Capacity Value

dro mass d ar

  • thermal

d-sited CCGT acramento)

  • Average TOD energy and

capacity value of solar

150 200 Wh) 12K 14K 16K Hyd Biom Wind Sola Geo Load (S city (GW-mi) Adjusted Delivered Cost

thermal with storage procured in Base case is $34/MWh greater than TOD energy and capacity

50 100 150 ivered Cost ($/MW 2K 4K 6K 8K 10K ransmission Capac

value of procured wind

  • Adjusted delivered cost of

solar is more sensitive to correlation with loads and

  • 50

Adjusted Del 0K 2K New Tr

correlation with loads and avoided resource adequacy costs than other technologies

  • 200
  • 150
  • 100

Bus-bar Cost Carbon Cost at $35/tonCO2 Transmission and Losses Cost Energy Value Capacity Value Integration Cost GW-mi

  • Wind provides 49% of the

renewable energy but drives 63% of transmission expansion Energy Analysis Department

15 Note: Load-sited CCGT cost assumes $8/MMBTU gas cost

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SLIDE 16

Resource and Transmission Expansion Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline

1. Motivation and Scope 2 Summary of Key Findings 2. Summary of Key Findings 3. Framework for Comparing WREZ Resources

a) Bus-bar costs b) Transmission and Line Losses Cost c) Market Value Adjustment Factors d) Advantages and Disadvantages of WREZ Model and Framework

4. Results

a) Impact of Level of Renewable Energy (RE) Demand b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone c) Alternative Scenarios with 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone d) Alternative Scenarios with Tradable Renewable Energy Credits

5 C l i d F t R h

Energy Analysis Department

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5. Conclusions and Future Research

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SLIDE 17

Key Uncertainties Can Shift Balance Key Uncertainties Can Shift Balance Between Wind and Solar Procurement Between Wind and Solar Procurement Between Wind and Solar Procurement Between Wind and Solar Procurement

300 350 WECC Wide Results with 33% RE

  • Biomass, hydro, and geothermal

contribute 16-23% of overall portfolio across all cases: supply

200 250 300 y (TWh/yr) Wind Solar

portfolio across all cases: supply constrained

  • More wind energy is procured

when wind costs are low, i i l

100 150 Renewable Energy Solar Hydro Biomass Geothermal

transmission costs are low, resource adequacy costs are low, or federal tax incentives for RE are allowed to expire

50 e s n e C t r r PV V d g C s

  • More solar energy is procured

when solar capital costs decline

  • r wind integration costs are

assumed to be higher

Base Case HVDC Long Lines High Utilization Short Line No Fed. ITC or PTC Low Adequacy Cost Sol Thrm Dry w Stor

  • l Thrm Wet no Stor

Fixed P Equal Solar Finance Low Cost Sol Thrm Low Cost Fxd PV Low Cost Wind High Wind Intg WECC REC REC with Limits

  • Dry-cooled solar thermal, solar

thermal without thermal storage, and fixed PV are all less attractive than wet-cooled solar

Energy Analysis Department

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S E Sensitivity Solar Tech. Solar Cost Wind RECs

thermal with thermal storage, under starting point assumptions

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SLIDE 18

Transmission Costs with 33% RE Delivered Transmission Costs with 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone Are $22 to Each Load Zone Are $22-34 Billion 34 Billion to Each Load Zone Are $22 to Each Load Zone Are $22 34 Billion 34 Billion

  • Overall cost is most influenced by

availability of Federal tax

ines n r PTC y Cost w Stor no Stor nance Thrm PV d g ts Sensitivity Solar Tech. Solar Cost Wind RECs

availability of Federal tax incentives and potential reductions in renewable capital costs

  • Transmission expansion is

$60 30K HVDC Long Li High Utilization Short Line No Fed. ITC or Low Adequacy Sol Thrm Dry w Sol Thrm Wet n Fixed PV Equal Solar Fi Low Cost Sol T Low Cost Fxd Low Cost Wind High Wind Intg WECC REC REC with Limit GW-mi)

greatest in scenarios with significantly more wind

  • Cases with more transmission

than Base case sometimes also

$40 $50 ($/MWh) 20K 25K mission Capacity (G

than Base case sometimes also have overall lower costs than Base case

  • Transmission costs are only a

$10 $20 $30 ative to Base Case 5K 10K 15K New Transm

fraction of delivered costs: 14-19% in cases that require 33% RE to be delivered to each load zone

  • $10

$0 Cost Rela 0K

  • Avg. Relative Cost ($/MWh)
  • Marg. Relative Cost ($/MWh)

Energy Analysis Department

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  • $20

GW-mi Base Case GW-mi WECC Wide Results

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SLIDE 19

Long Trans. Lines Can Be Economically Long Trans. Lines Can Be Economically Justified But Most Are Relatively Short Justified But Most Are Relatively Short Justified But Most Are Relatively Short Justified But Most Are Relatively Short

  • Lines over 800 miles

long can be

Renewable Energy Obtained within Maximum Transmission Distance (TWh/yr)

economically justified in some cases

  • Long lines are more

prevalent when HVDC is d f li l

1200 e (mi) 50 100 150 200 250 300 Base Case HVDC Long Lines

assumed for lines longer than 400 miles

  • Average transmission

distances are 230-315 il h 33% RE i

600 800 1000 mission Distance REC with Limits

miles when 33% RE is delivered to each zone

  • Any long distance lines

built to access renewable energy in the

200 400 ximum Transm

renewable energy in the west would ideally be coupled with an even- greater emphasis on short-distance lines

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Renewable Energy Obtained within Maximum Transmission Distance (% of Target) Ma

Energy Analysis Department

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SLIDE 20

Resource and Transmission Expansion Resource and Transmission Expansion Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline Decisions in WREZ: Presentation Outline

1. Motivation and Scope 2 Summary of Key Findings 2. Summary of Key Findings 3. Framework for Comparing WREZ Resources

a) Bus-bar costs b) Transmission and Line Losses Cost c) Market Value Adjustment Factors d) Advantages and Disadvantages of WREZ Model and Framework

4. Results

a) Impact of Level of Renewable Energy (RE) Demand b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone b) Base Case: WECC-wide 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone c) Alternative Scenarios with 33% RE Delivered to Each Load Zone d) Alternative Scenarios with Tradable Renewable Energy Credits

5 C l i d F t R h

Energy Analysis Department

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5. Conclusions and Future Research

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SLIDE 21

Renewable Energy Credits Can Reduce Renewable Energy Credits Can Reduce Transmission Expansion and Overall Costs Transmission Expansion and Overall Costs Transmission Expansion and Overall Costs Transmission Expansion and Overall Costs

  • Costs of meeting RE

targets are

50

g heterogeneous across load zones

  • RECs allow loads near

high-quality resources

20 30 40 Case Procurement Calgary: Los Angeles: 37.6 TWh/yr Renewable Procurement Increases Phoenix:

g q y to increase procurement and loads distant from resources to decrease procurement

10

  • 40
  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

10 20 30 40 50 rement Less Base C (TWh/yr) Calgary: 34.4 TWh/yr Denver: 20.6 TWh/yr Increases with RECs Phoenix: 24.3 TWh/yr Portland: 16.1 TWh/yr SLC Tucscon Sac. San Diego

procurement

  • RECs can reduce

transmission costs by $8 billion in 33% RE target scenario

  • 30
  • 20
  • 10

h Limits Case Procur Seattle: 27.3 SF Bay: Vancouver: 28.2 TWh/yr Renewable Procurement Decreases with RECs

target scenario

  • RECs may potentially

reduce average costs

  • f meeting 33% RE

target by $6/MWh

  • 50
  • 40

Base MADC - REC MADC ($/MWh) REC with TWh/yr SF Bay: 27.7 TWh/yr Renewable Resources in Base Case are More Expensive than RECs Renewable Resources in Base Case are Less Expensive than RECs

Energy Analysis Department

21 target by $6/MWh

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SLIDE 22

Conclusions Conclusions

  • Assumptions and policies that affect bus-bar costs of renewables have

the largest impact on resource selection and transmission expansion

  • Renewable resource capital cost, financing parameters, availability of

incentives, and resource quality need careful consideration

  • Bus-bar costs are only one piece of the puzzle: transmission and

y p p market value assumptions can also be important

  • Wind energy is the largest contributor toward a 33% RE target under

starting point assumptions, but key uncertainties can shift the balance starting point assumptions, but key uncertainties can shift the balance between wind and solar in the Southwest

  • Transmission investment to meet 33% RE with new WREZ resources

estimated at $17-34 billion estimated at $17 34 billion

  • Transmission costs are 10-19% of delivered cost of WREZ resources
  • Availability of tradable RECs should be explicitly considered in more

d t il d t i i l i

Energy Analysis Department

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detailed transmission planning

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SLIDE 23

Future Research Future Research

  • Considerable non-WREZ renewable resource

potential exists in the West; the adjusted delivered cost potential exists in the West; the adjusted delivered cost

  • f non-WREZ resources should be compared to the

adjusted delivered costs of WREZ resources

  • Market value adjustment factors will change with

penetration levels; more detailed tools should evaluate changes in market value at higher penetration particularly changes in market value at higher penetration, particularly in identifying the potential role of tradable RECs

  • Higher transmission utilization increases wind

Higher transmission utilization increases wind procurement; detailed analysis should evaluate the costs and benefits of approaches to increasing transmission utilization for wind energy

Energy Analysis Department

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utilization for wind energy

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SLIDE 24

For more information... For more information...

Contact the authors: Contact the authors:

Andrew Mills, 510-486-4059, ADMills@lbl.gov Amol Phadke 510 486 6855 AAPhadke@lbl gov Amol Phadke, 510-486-6855, AAPhadke@lbl.gov Ryan Wiser, 510-486-5474, RHWiser@lbl.gov

Download the full report:

htt // td lbl / /EMS/ b ht l http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/re-pubs.html

Download the WREZ model:

Energy Analysis Department

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www.westgov.org