EXPANDING CHOICES NOT CHANCE Equitable Ageing from A Life-Cycle Approach Marcela Suazo Country Director, UNFPA Thailand NextGen Ageing: Shaping a Smart Future for an Ageing Society 07/11/2018
OLDER PERSONS EXPECT TO LIVE LONGER AND HAVE FEWER ADULT CHILDREN AS POTENTIAL SUPPORT IN OLD AGE In 2015, there were 5.5 people in working ages (15-59 years) for each older person aged 60+ years, with considerable variations among countries (India: 7, China: 4.4, Japan: 1.6) By 2050, there will be 2.3 working age people for each older person in Asia and potential dependency will be lower in many countries Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2017 1
WHAT ARE THE TRENDS IN ASIA? Before mid-century the elderly will outnumber children By 2050 , there will be more elderly persons (60+ years) than children (0 – 14) By 2100 , elderly persons will be more than double the 0-14 children Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2017 2
INITIAL STAGE MIDDLE STAGE ADVANCED STAGE Median age below 23 Median age between Median age above 35 • Asian countries are at 23-35 different stages of Afghanistan Nepal China demographic Timor-Leste Cambodia Australia transition and have Solomon Island Philippines Macao Samoa Bangladesh New Zealand different patterns of ageing Papua New Guinea Maldives Thailand • Besides median age, we also Tonga India Taiwan observe variation in other Micronesia Bhutan Singapore important factors such as: Lao PDR Magnolia South Korea old-age dependency ratio , Vanuatu Fiji Hong Kong life expectancy , % of old- Kiribati Myanmar Japan age groups (e.g. 65+, 80+, Pakistan Indonesia centenarians, etc.) Malaysia Iran Viet Nam Brunei Darussalam Sri Lanka DPR Korea 3
ASIA: SHORT TIME TO PREPARE AND SET SYSTEMS IN PLACE Years required for ageing rate to rise from 7% to 14% Pace of ageing in many Asian countries is much faster compared to what developed countries experienced in the past Note : The year to the left of the bar designates the year in which the percentage of the population aged 65 and above (aging rate) reached 7%; the number to the right of the bar designates the year when the aging rate attained 14%. The number on the bar designates the years required for that increase. Source : Hungary by Kinsella and Wan He (2009); Kazakhstan, Vietnam, India, and Indonesia calculated using UN (2015) and others by IPSS (2016) 4
GENDER ASPECTS OF AGEING Older populations have a predominantly female face Despite gains in men survival, older population will remain predominantly female which requires specific policies and programs – health, living arrangements, support Sex Ratio among Older Persons in Asia, 2000 - 2050 Female as % of 60+ Female as % of 80+ 56 70 55 60 54 50 53 40 52 30 51 50 20 49 10 48 0 2000 2025 2050 2000 2025 2050 World East Asia World East Asia S.E. Asia South Asia S.E. Asia South Asia 5
2065 < 60 millions 2025 Thailand’s Population 68 millions 2084 2100 45 million 2018 40 million 67 millions 2100 20 62 754 million ASEAN’s Population ASEAN’s Population 794.5 millions 625 millions 6
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2017 7
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2017 8
TAKING A LIFE CYCLE APPROACH TOWARDS AGEING L I F E S T A G E S Childhood Youth Adult life Older age • ------------------- -------------------------------------------- Good nutrition & health care/ Promoting -------------------------------------------- - ----------------------- physical activity NCDs prevention/early detection Planning for older age, including dignified end-of-life & palliative care-------------------------------------- • • Continuing • • Early Formal and Age- stimulation & education / informal appropriate quality Vocational learning employment education----- training-------- opportunities • Decent work & livelihood Source: Adapted from WHO World Report on Ageing and Health 2015 9
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