EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL PRESENTATION OF THE TOOL AND SOME - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL PRESENTATION OF THE TOOL AND SOME APPLICATIONS JUNE 2020 EX-ACT FAO Regional Office for Africa Team LOUIS BOCKEL PADMINI GOPAL OUTLINE Presentation of the tool Role of the tool Why using EX-ACT?
EX-ACT – FAO Regional Office for Africa Team LOUIS BOCKEL PADMINI GOPAL
Role of the tool Why using EX-ACT? The structure and logic of the tool Outputs
Worldwide visibility Some examples in diverse countries
GIZ, IFAD, AFD (France), ADB, SEI (Sweden), ADEME (France)
Threatened by climate change Responsible for 1/3 of total GHG emissions Huge potential to cost-effectively mitigate
The main GHG emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC Volume 4 Chapter. 1 Introduction) HWP=Harvested wood products
3 accounted GHG : CO2, CH4, N20 Mitigation
70 % of agriculture mitigation potential In developing countries
Need for a simple tool that helps project designers to integrate climate mitigation concerns as part of AFOLU* policy and project planning. In particular: Lack of operational tools Tools under UNFCCC/KP UNFCCC/KP Tools = Flowchart + Equations + Default values
*AFOLU: agriculture, forestry and land use
Lack of tools to screen the entire agricultural sector
Need for an acceptable method which: measures C-balance impact in ex-ante appraisals, complements usual economic analysis, and fits within the time constraints of formulation process. Simple Practical Cost effective Upgradable
Information that :
can understand/use Up-scaling (Able to extrapolate to region, watershed and community level)
Transparency
2008 2009 2010 Concept note Tool design Pilot desk and field cases: Tanzania, Brazil, Eritrea, Madagascar, China EX-ACT v1
User guides Peer review EX-ACT v2 Web site A simple tool to provide rapid ex-ante estimations of the impact of agriculture and forestry development projects on GHG emissions and carbon sequestration, using available data (cost-effective) and fitting within standard project formulation or evaluation format. TCS TCI ESA
2008 2009 2010 2011 One tool, several potential uses
Identifying externalities Anticipating GHG and carbon impacts of agriculture and forestry activities in a development context Strengthening value chains Help to get additional funding Support policy decision-making
Capacity building
Scaling up and interaction
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
The EX-Ante Carbon balance T
Takes into account activities that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks)
Deforestation, A-Re/forestation, forest degradation, Restoration of grasslands, livestock, cultivation of annual crops, cultivation of perennial crops, fertilization of crops, installation of building, installation of irrigation systems...
CO2, CH4, N2O
above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil, litter and dead wood
GHG EMISSIONS CARBON STOCK CHANGES Positive result : There are more emissions Negative result: There are less emissions
Carbon balance in t of eq-CO2 Takes into account activities that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks)
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Gross and Net balance in CO2-e ha-1 yr-1
1 Description
Results
8 major categories
Deforestatio n Reforestation Other
Annual crops Perennial crops Irrigated rice
Pastures Livestock
Forest Organic soils
Inputs Energy Construction
Fisheries Aquaculture
Soil Climate
Localization Default agroecological zones and EF and coefficients
Matrix of change
management, organic management, tillage management)
Activities foreseen … that may impact on mitigation (GHG reduction/releases) What is the current situation ? What would happen in the future if the project is not implemented ? What is expected in the future if the project is implemented ?
Time (years)
Implementation phase
With project Without project
Capitalization phase
Difference used to compute the final C balance in tonne CO2 equivalent
Variable considered (ha of land use, number of cattle heads,…)
x0 x1 x2
3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practices
t0 t1 t2
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Absolute Change (x1-x0)
t0 t1 “Immediate” “Linear” “Exponential” t0 t1 t0 t1
Time (years) Default option in Tier 1 3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practice
Future without project 7 000 ha of deforestation 1 000 ha of afforestation 1 000 ha annual crops (conventional tillage, burning) 1 000 ha establishment of perennial crops 1 500 cattle under conventional practices
Future with project 2 500 ha of deforestation 2 000 ha of afforestation 1 000 ha annual crops (residue mulching, organic manure) 1 500 ha establishment of perennial crops 500 cattle with improved feeding practices
The Gross Results of a specific scenario are defined as the overall impact from all GHGs expressed in CO2 equivalents that were emitted or sequestered due to its implementation. The Carbon-Balance is defined as the marginal difference in Gross Results between the project scenario and the business-as-usual scenario.
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Component of Gross fluxes Gross fluxes the project Without With tCO2eq tCO2eq Land Use Changes Deforestation 70,000 25,000 Afforestation
Other Agriculture Annual 10,000
Perennial
Rice Grassland & Livestocks Grassland Livestock 15,000 5,000 Degradation 5,000
Inputs & Investments Total 80,000
Emissions:
100 000 t 30 000 t
Sequestration:
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
30
100
80 EMISSIONS SEQUESTRATION TOTAL t CO2-eq with without
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Component of Gross fluxes Gross fluxes the project Balance Without With tCO2eq tCO2eq Land Use Changes Deforestation 70,000 25,000
Afforestation
Other Agriculture Annual 10,000
Perennial
Rice Grassland & Livestocks Grassland Livestock 15,000 5,000
Degradation 5,000
Inputs & Investments Total 80,000
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
80
20 40 60 80 100 with without C balance T CO2-EQ
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Default emission factors are provided as first option and reference, but...
2.1. Deforestation
Available Ecological zone 1.Tropical rain forest - 2.Tropical moist deciduous forest - 3.Tropical dry forest - 4.Tropical shrubland You have indicated that your are using the following types of vegetation Forest Zone 1 Use this part only if you want to refine analysis with Tier 2 coefficients All values are in t of carbon per ha (tC/ha) (default values are provided for your information only, while EX-ACT will use Tier 2 values automatically wherever specified) Type of vegetation (that will be deforested) Above-ground Below-ground Litter Dead wood Soil C Default Tier 2 Default Tier 2 Default Tier 2 Default Tier 2 Default Tier 2 Forest - Zone 1 141.0 52.2 3.7 0.0 60.0 Forest - Zone 2 103.4 24.8 3.7 0.0 60.0 Forest - Zone 3 98.7 27.6 3.7 0.0 60.0 Forest - Zone 4 37.6 15.0 3.7 0.0 60.0 Plantation - Zone 1 70.5 26.1 3.7 0.0 60.0 Plantation - Zone 2 56.4 11.3 3.7 0.0 60.0 Plantation - Zone 3 28.2 7.9 3.7 0.0 60.0 Plantation - Zone 4 14.1 5.6 3.7 0.0 60.0
Back
Available AEZ Use this part only if you want to refine analysis with Tier 2 coefficients (default values are provided for your information only, while EX-ACT will use Tier 2 values automatically wherever specified) Systems Rates of soil C sequestration Residues/Biomass available for burning Annual systems from (or to) other LUC Default Tier 2 Default Annual after Deforestation 10 Converted to A/R 10 Annual after non-forest LU 10 Converted to OLUC 10 Annual systems remaining annual systems Trad Cotton 10 Impr Cotton 1.54 10 Trad Cassava 10 Impr Cassava 0.33 10 Rainfed Rice 0.29 10 description 6 10 description 7 10 description 8 10 description 9 10 description 10 10 (t CO2/ha/yr) Tier 2 (t Dry Matter per ha)
Back
You can always use your own coefficients when available!
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
About 60 countries which benefited from training workshops
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
More than 70 countries with EX-ACT project or policy appraisals
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
BRAZIL Santa Catarina rural competitiveness & Rio de Janeiro sustainable rural dev. MADAGASCAR 4 studies (140 000 small-farming families)
ETHIOPIA Agricultural Growth Proj. (AGP) – 2 Mi fam. RWANDA Land husbandry, Water harvesting and Hillside irrigation (LWH) proj. &Kirehe Community-based Watershed Management Proj. (KWAMP) – 8,000 families UGANDA Agriculture Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) – 2 Mi families TANZANIA Accelerated Food Security Project – 2.5 Mi families
Agriculture Rehabilitation and Recovery Support Project (ARRSP) – 0.1 Mi families BURKINA FASO Cashew nuts value chain – 15,000 families
EX-Act applied at landscape levels for developing country, smallholder contexts All these studies are available on the dedicated website
CARE Int. Hillside Conservation Agriculture Project (HICAP) KENYA East Africa Dairy Dev.t project (EADD) NIGER Community prog. of action - resilience to CC (PACRC) RUSSIA Forest Fire Emergency Response Project WWF Bikin Forest Conservation Project (BFCP) VIETNAM Low Carbon Ag. Support Project (LCASP)
One tool, several potentials
Forest Management Projects
www.fao.org/tc/exact
Sustainable Land Management Watershed Development Food Security and Sustainable Intensification Conservation Projects Land Rehabilitation
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Contact to EX-ACT team during the project design process Initial EX-ACT appraisal based on preliminary project document Intensive interaction between EX-ACT team and project designers
Elaboration and correction of preliminary developed project and baseline
scenarios
Discussion of potential improvements of project and policy actions for
targeted mitigation benefits
Delivery of final EX-ACT analysis Set up of monitoring system:
Entirely based on activity data vs involving field measurements/verification
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
One tool, several potentials Food security and agriculture intensification project
Objective: Increase agricultural production and productivity Targets: 2.5 millions rice and maize farmers 3 main project activities:
Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 7+13 years
t CO2-e
Maize
Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs
T
Carbon balance
235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -5.821.604
Carbon balance ha-1
Carbon balance ha-1 y-1
t CO2-e
Maize
Irrigation Irrigated rice Inputs
T
Carbon blance (CB)
235 2.607.667 4.187.055 -1.558.440
Carbon balance ha-1
Carbon balance ha-1 y-1
Accelerated Food Security Project in the United Republic of Tanzania Scenario 1: Very high adoption rates Scenario 2: Moderately high adoption rates
conventionnel improved 1: agronomic+nutrient+no tillage+no burning Improved 2 : nutrient+no burning Improved 3: nutrient
One tool, several potentials Project on sustainable land mgmt & hillside irrigation
Land husbandry, water harvesting and hillside irrigation (LWH) project Objective: Increase productivity and commercialization of hillside agriculture in targeted areas (Nyanza, Gatsibo, Karongi, Bugasera) Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 10+10 years Project activities: Land use changes Land and water conservation structures
Result in t of CO2- eq Net effect over 20 years
Unitary mitigation potential/ha/year
One tool, several potentials Watershed Development Project
Objective: Establishing irrigated agriculture & promoting forested watersheds Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 10+10 years
T Eq- CO2 Reducing deforestatio n Forestatio n Agroforest ry Annual crops Rice crops Restoring grasslands Input s Land use change Othe r invest ment s
T
Carbon balance
91148
1463
Carbon Balance.ha-1
Carbon Balance.an-1.ha-1
Carbon price Constant price US$/ton T
public value million US$ Project NPV million US$ IRR Without value 9.1 14.7% valued at 3.5 8.3 11.6 15.8% 2010 → 2020 from 2 to 10 20.4 13.9 16.5% 2010 → 2020 from 2 to 20 38.7 17.8 17.7%
Potential employment generation in the area of PES through regular monetary inflows from carbon payments
Irrigation and watershed management programme in Madagascar Project Carbon Balance Role of Carbon Payments
At low carbon price of US$ 3.5 Annual Equiv Carbon value per ha US$ 3.7 Carbon value per farmer US$ 14 Equiv Carbon financial rent per village US$ 1400 Equiv carbon financial rent per watershed US$ 104 000
One tool, several potentials Rice value chain analysis
Rice in Madagascar Putting forward :
adapted rice management practices
Current annual emissions: 12.9 Million tons of CO2eq 4.8 kg of CO2eq per kg of paddy 7.2 kg of CO2eq per kg of rice Methane production of aquatic rice (67%) Deforestation effect (29%) Persistence of hilly S&B rice (tavy) Rice production in Madagascar T
The upgraded scenario will allow to fix 5.6 million tons of CO2eq/year between 2003-2020
flooding rice management
policy letting S&B increase by 3.1%/year
intermitted flooding and non flooded preseason
amendment
S&B rice
fertilizers used => 45% due to ↘CH4 (from continuously to intermitted flooding) => 54% linked with reduction of deforestation due to tavy
One tool, several potentials Sustainable Agriculture Putting forward :
intensification as an alternative to cropland expansion
Agroforestry
Objective: Increase in agricultural productivity and household incomes of participating smallholder farmers Project activities: Improving agricultural practices through extension, promoting agroforestry, preventing deforestation Duration of carbon appraisal: 5+15 years
Land expansion (through deforestation, land use change on set aside and grasslands) No land expansion = 50`% of mitigation potential No expansion Expansion of agroforestry and perennials = 12 % of mitigation potential Burning residue No burning residue Improved practises = 35 % of mitigation potential
Agriculture T echnology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) in Uganda
Scenario 1
More pragmatic scenario: Agriculture expansion is not stopped but reduced
stopped
without deforestation WITH PROJECT SITUATION 50% on deforested lands Annual crop expansion Tree plantation Manure application yes no Millions of t eq-CO2 Defores- tation Afforestatio n/ reforestatio n Land use change Annual crops Perennial crops Final Carbon balance
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Agriculture T echnology and Agribusiness Advisory Services project (ATAAS) in Uganda
One tool, several potentials Agricultural Policy
One tool, several potentials
Watershed Development Food Security and Sustainable Intensification Forest Management Projects
Sustainable Land Management Conservation Projects Land Rehabilitation
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Without Project With Project
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