EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL PRESENTATION OF THE TOOL AND SOME APPLICATIONS JUNE 2020 EX-ACT – FAO Regional Office for Africa Team LOUIS BOCKEL PADMINI GOPAL
OUTLINE Presentation of the tool Role of the tool Why using EX-ACT? The structure and logic of the tool Outputs EX-ACT Applications Worldwide visibility Some examples in diverse countries
BRIEF REASON & BACKGROUND OF TOOL DEVELOPMENT
A PARTNERSHIP Partnership External partnership FAO IRD (French Development Research Institute) Investment Center TCI World Bank Policy Support Service TCS GIZ, IFAD, AFD (France), ADB, SEI Ag. Economics Division ESA (Sweden), ADEME (France) EX-ACT is a FAO tool to estimate the mitigation impact of agricultural and forestry projects it supports decision-making for agriculture and forestry planning, policies and investment projects
AGRICULTURE & CLIMATE CHANGE Threatened by climate change Agriculture Responsible for 1/3 of total GHG emissions forestry And other land use Huge potential to cost-effectively mitigate 3 accounted GHG : CO 2 , CH 4 , Mitigation N 2 0 Increase sinks Decrease sources The main GHG emission sources/removals and processes in managed ecosystems (After IPCC Volume 4 Chapter. 1 Introduction) HWP=Harvested wood products 70 % of agriculture mitigation In developing countries potential
THE NEED OF A NEW SIMPLE TOOL Need for a simple tool that helps project designers to integrate climate mitigation concerns as part of AFOLU* policy and project planning. In particular: Lack of operational tools Tools under UNFCCC/KP UNFCCC/KP Tools = Flowchart + Equations + Default values *AFOLU: agriculture, forestry and land use
THE NEED OF A N E W SIMPLE TOOL Lack of tools to screen the entire agricultural sector
THE NEED OF A NEW SIMPLE TOOL Need for an acceptable method which: measures C-balance impact in ex-ante appraisals, complements usual economic analysis, and fits within the time constraints of formulation process. Information that : Simple -scientists can quantify/use, Transparency -farmers/project developers can understand/use Practical Upgradable overtime Up-scaling (Able to extrapolate to region, watershed and community Cost effective level)
HISTORY 2008 2009 2010 Concept note Tool design Pilot desk and field cases: Tanzania, Brazil, Eritrea, Peer Madagascar, China review TCS EX-ACT v1 EX-ACT v2 TCI Tech. Guidelines Web site ESA User guides A simple tool to provide rapid ex-ante estimations of the impact of agriculture and forestry development projects on GHG emissions and carbon sequestration, using available data (cost-effective) and fitting within standard project formulation or evaluation format.
….HISTORY 2008 2009 2010 2011 Scaling up and interaction One tool, several potential uses Support policy Identifying decision-making externalities Anticipating GHG and carbon impacts of agriculture and forestry Help to get activities in a development additional funding context Strengthening value Capacity chains building
INTRODUCTION OF THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL
WHAT IS EXACTLY EX-ACT? An Excel based tool to quantify the amount of GHGs released or sequestered from activities in the AFOLU sector Requires activity data on agricultural practices, resource use and land use change Calculates estimated GHG impacts in tonne of CO 2 -e THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
The EX-Ante Carbon balance T ool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application MAIN LOGIC OF EX-ACT Takes into account activities Takes into account activities Deforestation, A-Re/forestation, forest degradation, Restoration of grasslands, livestock, cultivation of annual crops, cultivation of perennial crops, fertilization of crops, installation of building, installation of irrigation systems... that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks) that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks) CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O or stock changes from and to different carbon pools or stock changes from and to different carbon pools above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil, litter and dead wood GHG CARBON STOCK EMISSIONS CHANGES Carbon balance in t of eq-CO 2 Positive result : There are more emissions Negative result: There are less emissions MITIGATION !
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION WHAT IS EXACTLY EX-ACT? EX-ACT leads policy officers & project designers to elaborate two different development scenarios for the AFOLU sector: A “ business-as-usual ” scenario -> in absence of any intervention A “ policy/project scenario ” -> strengthening targeted & sustainable development
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
1 Description 8 major categories 2. Land Use Change Results Deforestatio Reforestation Other n Localization 3. Crop production Gross and Net Perennial Annual crops Irrigated rice balance in crops CO 2 -e ha -1 yr -1 4. Pasture and Livestock Soil Pastures Livestock 5. Degradation Climate Organic soils Forest 6. Coastal wetlands Matrix of change 7. Investment and infrastructure Inputs Energy Construction Default 8. Fisheries & Aquaculture agroecological Fisheries Aquaculture zones and EF and coefficients
A FIRST LOOK AT MAIN DATA NEEDS Activities foreseen … that may impact on mitigation (GHG reduction/releases) -Different areas of land uses and land use changes in ha - Management practices (residue burning, improved agronomic practice, nutrient management, organic management, tillage management) -Quantities of input s used -For livestock , evolution of herd - Energy consumption - Investments in infrastructure What would happen in What is expected in the What is the current the future if the project future if the project is situation ? is not implemented ? implemented ?
THE STRUCTURE AND LOGIC 3 different dynamics of Difference used to compute the final C change balance in tonne CO 2 equivalent (ha of land use, number of cattle heads,…) (adoption) of practices x 2 With project Variable considered Benefits of the project x 1 Without project x 0 Implementation phase Capitalization phase Time (years) t 0 t 1 t 2
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION DYNAMICS OF CHANGE The implementation phase defines in EX-ACT the period from start to finalization of project activities Any activity may be implemented with a different pace over time 3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practice Absolute Change “Immediate” “Linear” “Exponential” (x 1 -x 0 ) Time (years) t 0 t 1 t 0 t 1 t 0 t 1 Default option in Tier 1
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION AN EXAMPLE... Future without project Future with project 7 000 ha of deforestation 2 500 ha of deforestation 1 000 ha of afforestation 2 000 ha of afforestation More or less 1 000 ha annual crops 1 000 ha annual crops GHG’s (conventional tillage, (residue mulching, organic released ? burning) manure) 1 000 ha establishment of 1 500 ha establishment of perennial crops perennial crops 1 500 cattle under 500 cattle with improved conventional practices feeding practices The Gross Results of a specific scenario are defined as the overall impact from all GHGs expressed in CO 2 equivalents that were emitted or sequestered due to its implementation. The Carbon-Balance is defined as the marginal difference in Gross Results between the project scenario and the business-as-usual scenario.
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION GROSS RESULTS Component of Gross fluxes Gross fluxes the project Without With tCO 2 eq tCO 2 eq Land Use Changes Deforestation 70,000 25,000 Afforestation -10,000 -20,000 Other 0 0 Agriculture Annual 10,000 -5,000 Perennial -10,000 -15,000 Rice 0 0 Grassland & Livestocks Grassland 0 0 Livestock 15,000 5,000 Degradation 5,000 -10,000 Inputs & Investments 0 0 Total 80,000 -20,000 Emissions: 100 000 t 30 000 t THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND Sequestration: -20 000 t -50 000 t APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION GROSS RESULTS 100 80 t CO2-eq + = 30 EMISSIONS SEQUESTRATION TOTAL -20 -20 -50 THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND with without APPLICATION
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION THE CARBON BALANCE Component of Gross fluxes Gross fluxes the project Balance Without With tCO 2 eq tCO 2 eq Land Use Changes Deforestation 70,000 25,000 -45,000 _ Afforestation -10,000 -20,000 -10,000 Other 0 0 0 Agriculture = + Annual 10,000 -5,000 -15,000 Perennial -10,000 -15,000 -5,000 Rice 0 0 0 Grassland & Livestocks Grassland 0 0 0 Livestock 15,000 5,000 -10,000 Degradation 5,000 -10,000 -15,000 Inputs & Investments 0 0 0 THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION Total 80,000 -20,000 -100,000
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION THE CARBON BALANCE 100 80 80 60 40 20 T CO2-EQ 0 with without C balance -20 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -100 -120
THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION THE METHODOLOGY BEHIND THE TOOL THE EX-ANTE CARBON BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT): LOGIC AND APPLICATION
Recommend
More recommend
