ETP 2015 demonstrates that strategic action on clean energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ETP 2015 demonstrates that strategic action on clean energy - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 17, 2022 241 likes •695 views

ETP 2015 demonstrates that strategic action on clean energy technologies at national, regional and international levels has the capacity to move the world closer to shared goals for climate change mitigation while delivering benefits of enhanced

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Source: “Tracking Clean Energy Progress,” IEA, 2015 “ETP 2015 demonstrates that strategic action on clean energy technologies at national, regional and international levels has the capacity to move the world closer to shared goals for climate change mitigation while delivering benefits of enhanced energy security and sustainable economic development. Unfortunately, this report also shows that the current pace of action is falling short of the aim of limiting climate change to a global temperature rise of 2°C (ETP modeling, the 2° Scenario or 2DS). Indeed, despite positive signs in many areas, for the first time since the IEA started monitoring clean energy progress, not one of the technology fields tracked is meeting its objectives. As a result, our ability to deliver a future in which temperatures rise modestly is at risk of being jeopardized, and the future that we are heading towards will be far more difficult unless we can take action now to radically change the global energy system. “

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Why Are We Lagging Behind Targets?

  • Global Externality Problems Involving Such Large Costs and Potential

Wealth Transfers are Inherently Difficult

  • Too Much Wishful Thinking
  • Too Little Hard‐Nosed Analysis of Mitigation Costs, Incentives, Human

and Organizational Behavior

  • Too Little Long‐Term R&D and Innovation
  • Reinforced By Bad Domestic and International Public Policies
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Domestic and International Public Policies

  • Marginal Cost of Mitigation with Current Policies Varies Widely Across

Applications (‐$X ‐ $1000/ton CO2 Avoided)

  • Solar in Northern Ontario vs. Solar in Mexico
  • The Most Economical Long‐Term Mitigation Innovations Are Very

Uncertain and Cry Out for Broad Rather than Narrow Incentives

  • Picking “Favorite” Technologies to Subsidize is a Loser
  • Subsidies Are Very Difficult to Remove Once They Are Made Available
  • Complementary Policies Receive Inadequate Attention (e.g. Electric

and Gas Transmission)

  • Costs of Meeting 2050 Mitigation Goal Using Current Technologies

are Enormous Making the Likelihood of Achieving Goal Very Low

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Domestic and International Public Policies

  • International “Pledge and Verify Strategy” is Not Credible
  • Incentive Structure is Wrong in the Short Run and Long Run (Innovation)
  • Need Commitment to Uniform Global GHG Price Trajectory Equal to Best

Estimate of the (PDV) of the Marginal Damages from Emissions

  • Cap and Trade with International Trading is the Most Realistic Approach
  • Good luck with a global tax on carbon emissions
  • Need a Different Mechanism to Allocate R&D Funds That Takes a Broad

Long‐Term Perspective (e.g. ARPA‐E)

  • Hard to Make an International “Deal” with 195 Countries
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Stabilization Wedges

Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies

This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in "Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004. Please credit the Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University 16 8 4

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Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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U.S. EPA Updated May 2014

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U.S. EPA Updated May 2014

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U.S. EPA Updated May 2014

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Clean Energy Wire, May 9, 2015 German Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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9/5/15

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Mauna Loa Observatory

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MIT Joint Program Report #164

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U.S. EIA

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U.S. EIA 2015

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Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings

Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of

  • ne wedge

Efficiency Efficiency

There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055 Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today

E, T, H / $

Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA Sector s affected: E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

Carbon Mitigation Initiative Princeton University

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Fowlie, Greenstone and Wolfram, E2e Working Paper 20, 2015

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Consumer Reports Magazine, August 2013

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VMT 1991‐2015

U.S. Federal Highway Administration 2008

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Implement CCS at

  • 800 GW coal electric plants or
  • 1600 GW natural gas electric

plants or

  • 180 coal synfuels plants or
  • 10 times today’s capacity of

hydrogen plants

Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey

Carbon Capture & Storage Carbon Capture & Storage

There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.

E, T, H / $$ Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2060

Nuclear Electricity Nuclear Electricity

Graphic courtesy of NRC

The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975‐1990.

E/ $$ Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal‐fired facilities

A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today

Fuel Switching Fuel Switching

Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).

E, H / $ Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015

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Wind Electricity Wind Electricity

Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal‐based electricity, OR Use 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel

Photo courtesy of DOE

A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 10

E, T, H / $‐$$ Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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U.S. EIA

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U.S. EIA

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Solar Electricity Solar Electricity

Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program

Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2060

A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 100 times

E / $$$ Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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CAISO, August 18, 2015

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CAISO, June 30, 2015

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Biofuels Biofuels

Photo courtesy of NREL

Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops

Scale up current global ethanol production by ~12 times

T, H / $$ Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University

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LIHEAP = Low Income Energy Assistance Program

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Borenstein and Lucas, NBER WP21342, 2015

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2011