Environmental Hydrodynamic Modelling Applied to Extreme Events in - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Environmental Hydrodynamic Modelling Applied to Extreme Events in Caribbean and Mediterranean Countries

J. Lugon

• Jr. 1,

M.M. Juliano 2, I. Kyriakides 3, E.N. Yamas aki 4, P.P.G.W. Rodrigues 5, A .J. S ilva Neto 5

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1 Instituto Federal Fluminense - IFFluminense, Macaé/RJ – Brazil 2 University of Azores, Ponta Delgada, Azores, Portugal 3 Dep. of Engineering, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus 4 Dep. of Life and Health Sciences, University of Nicosia, Nicosia, Cyprus 5 IPRJ/UERJ, Nova Friburgo/RJ – Brazil

MAIN RESEARCH INTEREST AND TOOLS

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MoHid Hydrodynamic Model MoHid Water MoHid Land

Model developed to simulate surface water bodies (oceans, estuaries, reservoirs). Model with four compartments or mediums (atmosphere, porous media, soil surface, and river network) Computational Modelling Water T ransport Beginning Cooperation with: 1) University of Nicosia (Cyprus) 2) Instec (Cuba)

INTRODUCTION

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Hurricanes are extreme natural events with potentially devastating effects on society, both in terms of property damage and loss of human life. In this work, the environmental hydrodynamics in the Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas are modelled using downscaling techniques on the MOHID Platform. The first critical extreme event of interest was Hurricane Irma (2017), with significant impact on Caribbean countries, such as Barbuda, Puerto Rico, and Cuba, while the second one was the Medicane Zorba, with significant impact on Greece (2018).

INTRODUCTION

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https://edition.cnn.com/s pecials/hurricane-irma

INTRODUCTION

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https://www.theguardian .com/news/2018/oct/05/w eatherwatch-greece-and- turkey-hit-by-unusual-m edicane

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MODEL DESCRIPTION

MOHID – 3D hydrodynamic computational model used to solve the Navier-Stokes equations with Boussinesq and hydrostatic approach. ui – velocity components in the cartesian components xi Ƞ - Free surface elevation; f - Coriolis parameter; vh – Turbulent viscosity; ps - atmosphere pressure; ρ – density.

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MODEL DESCRIPTION

GFS Atmospheric data COPERNICUS MyOcean Oceanic parameters GEBCO Bathymetric data

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MODEL DESCRIPTION

Horizontal Discretization Mediterranean Model Caribbean Model

• 2D formulation – barotropic model 0.12 Mediterranean

0.12 Caribbean

• 3D Formulation – baroclinic model 0.04 Greece

0.04 Cuba

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MODEL DESCRIPTION

Vertical Discretization Mediterranean and Caribbean Models Forcing 2D formulation – barotropic model 1 sigma layer FES2012 3D Formulation – baroclinic model 7 sigma layers and 43 Cartesian layers GFS and MyOcean

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RESUL TS – CARIBBEAN MODEL

September 8th to 10th, 2017: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents Winds velocity GFS Surface currents Caribbean Model

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RESUL TS – CARIBBEAN MODEL

September 8th to 10th, 2017: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents

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RESUL TS – CARIBBEAN MODEL

Water Level Results Calculated for a Virtual Station located at Isabela de Sagua,

• Cuba. Hurricane Irma

From September 2nd to 20th, 2017

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RESUL TS – MEDITERRANEAN MODEL

September 27th to 29th, 2018: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents Winds velocity GFS Surface currents Mediterranean Model

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RESUL TS – MEDITERRANEAN MODEL

September 27th to 29th, 2018: Atmospheric winds velocity & Oceanic surface currents

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RESUL TS – MEDITERRANEAN MODEL

Water Level Results Calculated for a Virtual Station (Kalamai) located at Kalamata, Greece - Medicane Zorba From November 28th to October 06th, 2018

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RESUL TS – MEDITERRANEAN MODEL

Water Level Validation Calculated for a Virtual Station (Katacolo) located at Pyrgos, Greece - Medicane Zorba From November 28th to October 03th, 2018

CONCLUSIONS

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The downscaling models developed allowed the simulation

• f the interaction between the water and the atmosphere,

and the computation of the variation of the sea surface height, currents, salinity, and temperature fields. The results obtained encourages the use of MOHID´s Platform in natural disaster modelling, aiming future application to environmental parameters estimation and drift simulation of floating objects, with the formulation and solution of inverse problems.

CONCLUSIONS

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Future work: Salinity intrusion and estuarine studies in Caribbean and Mediteranean modelling.

Salinity intrusion in Macaé River and estuary in Brazil.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

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The authors acknowledge the fjnancial support provided by FAPERJ, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, CNPq, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científjco e T ecnológico, and CAPES, Fundação Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior.

Thanks!

REFERENCES

20 Lim, Y .-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kovach, R; Molod, A. M.; Pawson, S. The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Scientifjc Reports. 8:16172 (2018). DOI:10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5. Romero, R. and Emanuel, K. Medicane risk in a changing climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(12), pp.5992-6001 (2013). DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50475. Gaertner, M. Á. et al., Simulation of Medicanes over the Mediterranean Sea in a Regional Climate Model Ensemble: Impact of Ocean–atmosphere Coupling and Increased Resolution. ClimDyn 51:1041– 1057 (2018). DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3456-1. ACTION MODULERS. Mohid Studio. [Ref. November, 21st 2018]. Available from: http://actionmodulers.pt/products/mstudio/products-mohidstudio2015.shtml. MOHID Water Modelling System [Ref. [November, 21st 2018]. Available from: www.mohid.com. GEBCO - General Bathymetric Chart of Oceans. Gridded bathymetry data. [ref. November, 20th 2017]. Accessed in Web: https://www.gebco.net/data\_and\_products/gridded\_bathymetry\_data. GFS - Global Forecast System. GFS Analysis. [ref. November, 20th 2017]. Accessed in Web: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/global-forcast-system-gfs Carrére, L.; Lyard, F .; Cancet, M.; Guillot, A., Roblout, L. FES2012: A new global tidal model taking advantage of nearly 20 years of altimetry . In proceedings of the meeting 20 Years of Altimetry, Venice. (2012).

• COPERNICUS. Marine Environment Monitoring Service. [ref. November, 20th 2017]. Accessed in Web:

http://marine.copernicus.eu/services-portfolio/access-to-products/?option=com\_csw\&task=results. Mellor, G.; Yamada, T. Development of a T urbulence Closure Model for Geophysical Fluid Problems. Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics, v. 20, n.4, pp. 851-875 (1982). Moura Neto, F . D. and Silva Neto, A. J. An Introduction to Inverse Problems with Applications. Springer- Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. ISBN 978-3-642-32556-4. (2013). DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-32557-1. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Isabella de Sagua Station) [ref. May, 8th 2019] Accessed in Web https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/411.php. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (Kalamai Station) [ref. May, 8th 2019] Accessed in Web https://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/411.php.