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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Enrollment management by colleges and universities Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion Ozan Jaquette ozanj@ucla.edu UCLA Department of Education November 2016 No Board

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Enrollment management by colleges and universities

Ozan Jaquette

UCLA

Department of Education

November 2016

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  • zanj@ucla.edu
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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Enrollment management at public universities Research and policy discourse

Presentation outline

1 Introduction: Federal goals and institutional enrollment

management behavior

2 Allocation of Title IV financial aid

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Federal role in student access and success

Title IV federal financial aid Enables students to attend college Title IV institutions Institutions eligible to enroll students receiving Title IV aid Federal govt. is principal; Title IV institutions are agents Title IV eligibility requirements Institution-level accreditation Office of Postsecondary Education (OPE) administrative requirements Performance requirements related to student outcomes

Cohort default rates Gainful employment

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Overview of research program

Enrollment management behavior of colleges and universities

Research program How do colleges and universities change behavior to generate enrollment from desired student populations? What is enrollment management? Integrates activities of admissions, financial aid, recruiting Goal is to “influence the characteristics and size of enrolled students” (Hossler & Bean, 1990, p. xiv) Access, academic prestige, and tuition revenue What enrollment goals do Title IV institutions? Synergies and tensions between enrollment goals

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Mean tuition revenue as a percent of total revenue

20 25 30 35 2004 2006 2008 Research I (N=101) Master's (N=261) 2010 2012 2014 Research II (N=62) Bachelor's (N=63) Research I (N=48) Research II (N=40) Master's (N=305) BA (N=439)

Public four-year

20 40 60 80 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Private non-profit four-year

60 70 80 90 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 4-yr (N=213) Less-than 2-yr (N=1,187) 2-yr (N=652)

For-profit

10 20 30 40 50 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 NYU Columbia Cuny Grad 2014

In the city

  • f

New York... Note: For publics, tuition revenue excludes external student grant aid (e.g., Pell) Use 2000 Carnegie to classify public and private non-profit No Board endorsement

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2003-04 to 2013-14

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Percent of undergraduates receiving Pell grant aid

10 30 50 2005 2007 2009 Research I (N=101) Master's (N=261) 2011 2013 2015 Research II (N=61) Bachelor's (N=63) Research I (N=48) Research II (N=40) Master's (N=305) BA (N=439)

Public four-year

10 30 50 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Private non-profit four-year

40 50 60 70 80 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 4-yr (N=178) Less-than 2-yr (N=1,149) 2-yr (N=640)

For-profit

10 12 14 16 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

National poverty rate Note: Enrollment based on 12-month headcount; Pell data from Office of Federal Student Aid Use 2000 Carnegie to classify public and private non-profit No Board endorsement

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2004-05 to 2014-15

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Federal financial aid

Disbursement, repayment, and default

$ billions (2015 CPI) 25 50 75 100 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Pub 4-yr Pub 2 Non-prof Prof

Total federal loans disbursed

$ thousands (2015 CPI) 2 4 6 8 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Pub 4-yr Pub 2-yr Non-prof Prof

Median federal loans per FTE

Millions 1 2 3 4 5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pub 4-yr Pub 2-yr Non-prof Prof

Number

  • f

loans entering repayment

$ billions (2015 CPI) 10 20 30 40 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Total federal grants disbursed

$ thousands (2015 CPI) 1 2 3 4 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Median federal grants per FTE

Thousands 100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number

  • f

loans defaulting within 3 years FTE enrollment based on 12-month instructional activity Public 2-year includes less-than-2-year institutions

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Pub 4-yr Non-prof Pub 4-yr Non-prof Pub 4-yr Non-prof Pub 2-yr Prof Pub 2-yr Prof Pub 2-yr Prof

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Mean 3-year cohort default rate, 2005-2013

(Year refers to year loan entered repayment)

5 Default rate 10 15 20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pub 4-yr Pub 2-yr Non-prof Prof No Board endorsement

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Allocation of Title IV loans by 3-yr CDR band

$ billions (2015 CPI) 25 50 75 100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

All sectors

$ billions (2015 CPI) 2 4 6 8 10 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Public 2-year

  • r

less-than-2-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 2 4 6 8 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

For-profit 2-year

  • r

less-than-2-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 10 20 30 40 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Non-profit 4-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 10 20 30 40 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008

Public 4-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 5 10 15 20 2010 2012 2014 2016

For-profit 4-year

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CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+

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Year of CDR assigned to end date of 3-year CDR window (e.g., 2013 3-yr CDR assigned to 2015-16)

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Enrollment management

Allocation of Title IV grants by 3-yr CDR band

$ billions (2015 CPI) 10 20 30 40 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

All sectors

$ billions (2015 CPI) 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Public 2-year

  • r

less-than-2-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 1 2 3 4 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

For-profit 2-year

  • r

less-than-2-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 1 2 3 4 5 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Non-profit 4-year

$ billions (2015 CPI) 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2008

Public 4-year

2 4 6 $ billions (2015 CPI) 2010 2012 2014 2016

For-profit 4-year

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CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+ CDR 0-15 CDR 15-30 CDR 30+

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Year of CDR assigned to end date of 3-year CDR window (e.g., 2013 3-yr CDR assigned to 2015-16)

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Number of Title IV institutions

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Pub 4-yr Pub 2-yr Non-prof Prof No Board endorsement

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2003-04 to 2015-16

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

2003 2005 2007 Res 1 (N=99) MA (N=250)

Creating the out-of-state university

Enrollment management at public universities

100 200 300 2009 2011 2013 Res 2 (N=58) BA (N=66) Res I (N=99) MA (N=250)

State appropriations

$ millions (2014 CPI) 1 200 300 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Res II (N=58) BA (N=66) Res I (N=99) Res II (N=58) MA (N=250) BA (N=66)

Net tuition revenue

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Resident freshman headcount

$ thousands (2014 CPI) 5 10 15 20 25 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Res I (N=99) Res II (N=58) MA (N=250) BA (N=66) Res I (N=99) Res II (N=58) MA (N=250) BA (N=66)

Resident price

$ thousands (2014 CPI) 5 10 15 20 25 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Res I (N=99) Res II (N=58) MA (N=250) BA (N=66)

Nonresident price

500 1,000 1,500 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Nonresident freshman headcount Freshman migration data available every other year Net tuition revenue excludes student grant aid from external sources (e.g., Pell)

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$ millions (2014 CPI)

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Enrollment management Ozan Jaquette Introduction Title IV aid Public universities Discussion

Discussion: Relationship between research and policy discourse

Policy discourse on for-profits

  • Dept. of Ed has been aggressive in regulating for-profits

Scholars have failed to inform Title IV regulations Discourse on access inequality at 2014 White House summit Scholarship focuses on households and K-12 schools Pledges for action by colleges and universities What we know from research: Institutions very purposeful about who they enroll Effect of college on students differs by institutional type Need more research on recruiting Which institutions target which prospective students Are some talented students systematically under-recruited?

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