Energy to deliver RBS Morgans Breakfast Presentation 17 July 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Energy to deliver RBS Morgans Breakfast Presentation 17 July 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Energy to deliver RBS Morgans Breakfast Presentation 17 July 2013 Important notice and disclaimer Important information This Presentation has been prepared by Senex Energy Limited ( Senex ). It is current as at the date of this Presentation.
Important notice and disclaimer
Important information This Presentation has been prepared by Senex Energy Limited (Senex). It is current as at the date of this Presentation. It contains information in a summary form and should be read in conjunction with Senex’s other periodic and continuous disclosure announcements to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) available at: www.asx.com.au. Risk and assumptions - An investment in Senex shares is subject to known and unknown risks, many of which are beyond the control of
- Senex. In considering an investment in Senex shares, investors should have regard to (amongst other things) the risks outlined in this
presentation and in other disclosures and announcements made by Senex to the ASX. This presentation contains statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material, based on various assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not prove to be correct. No investment advice - The information contained in this presentation does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient and is not financial advice or financial product advice. Before making an investment decision, recipients of this presentation should consider their own needs and situation, satisfy themselves as to the accuracy of all information contained herein and, if necessary, seek independent professional advice. Disclaimer - To the extent permitted by law, Senex, its directors, officers, employees, agents, advisers and any person named in this presentation: give no warranty, representation or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any assumptions upon which any part of this presentation is based or the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation; and accept no responsibility for any loss, claim, damages, costs or expenses arising out of, or in connection with, the information contained in this presentation. Reserve and resource estimates Unless otherwise indicated, the statements contained in this presentation about Senex’s reserves estimates have been compiled by Mr James Crowley BSc (Hons), who is General Manager – Exploration and Development, a full time employee of Senex, in accordance with the definitions and guidelines in the 2007 Petroleum Resources Management System approved by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE PRMS). Mr Crowley consents to the inclusion of the estimates in the form and context in which they appear. Senex’s reserves and resources are consistent with the SPE PRMS.
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Since our last RBS Morgans breakfast…
March 2012 July 2013 Permits 65,584 km2 71,933 km2 People 52 170 Net profit after tax $1.9 million for 1H FY12 $23.5 million for 1H FY13 Oil Production 601,000 barrels for FY12 1.24 million barrels for FY13 Drilling program 11 wells 30+ wells 2P reserves 6.9 million barrels1 10.8 million barrels Pipelines Proposed Complete and operational Gas Activity Drilling first Cooper Basin gas well Discovered Hornet gas field and basin centred gas play Cooper Basin resources Nil 2C: 1.9 Tcf 3C: 5.5 Tcf Surat Basin 2P reserves 13 mmboe (79 Bcf)1 26 mmboe (157 Bcf) 2017 gas price estimate A$6-9/GJ A$8-11/GJ2
1 As at 30 June 2011 2 Source: EnergyQuest
Focus on cash generation and balance sheet strength
OIL
- FY14 production guidance:
1.4 million to 1.6 million barrels, up 13% to 28%
- FY14 2P reserves growth guidance1:
4 million to 6 million barrels, generating a reserves replacement ratio of over 300%2 GAS
- Focus on early commercialisation of
2.4 Tcf Hornet gas discovery
- Monetisation of coal seam gas assets
2013/14 guidance
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1 Before production and divestments 2 At midpoint of production and 2P oil reserves growth guidance
Cooper Basin Gas Business
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LNG 1,720PJ Domestic 630PJ
2017 (2,350 PJ/a)
CSG 1,590PJ Otway and
- ther
115PJ Gippsland 260PJ Cooper 105PJ Forecast shortfall and required third party supply 280PJ
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LNG demand set to outstrip CSG supply
Power 210PJ Major Industrial 110PJ Utility 400PJ
2012 (720 PJ/a)
Demand
CSG 270PJ Cooper 94PJ Otway 105PJ Gippsland 258PJ Other 4PJ
Supply
Source: EnergyQuest
Domestic
- LNG gas demand to
dwarf the domestic gas market
- Domestic market to
soften, however large uncontracted positions forecast
- 2017 price estimate:
$8-11 per gigajoule
- Coal seam gas
production must grow more than five fold in five years
- Third party supply
critical to meeting LNG demand
- Cooper Basin perfectly
placed to meet shortfall
Cooper Basin is the solution for gas supply
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Early success with Hornet gas discovery
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Program objectives so far:
Gas to surface Resource definition Continual cost reduction
Next steps:
- Confirm project economics
- Progress field appraisal and
development plan
Focused on commercialising Hornet…
Hornet contingent resources1 Prospective resource1,2 1C 2C 3C High Bcf mmboe Bcf mmboe Bcf mmboe Bcf mmboe 1533 26 835 139 2,374 396 3,686 614
1 Estimated gross raw gas. 1,000 Bcf = 1 Tcf. 1 barrel of oil equivalent = 6,000 cubic feet 2 Prospective resource includes contingent resource. 3 100% share. Senex has entered into an agreement to acquire the 20% share of PEL 115 held by Orca Energy Limited – refer ASX announcement dated 13 June 2013
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Intensifying interest in monetisation opportunities
- Located in the Gladstone LNG
feedstock heartland
- CSG to LNG projects will require
additional third party gas supplies
- Seven successful appraisal wells
drilled in 2012/13
- Reserves upgraded:
– 2P reserves 156.6 PJ – 3P reserves 357.7 PJ – 598 PJ of reserves and resources (~102.8 mmboe)
- Planning underway for further
eleven exploration and appraisal wells across eastern and western permits
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… and monetising CSG
Cooper Basin oil business
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Track record for production growth:
- 106% increase to 1.24 million barrels in 2012/13
- 2013/14 production guidance of 1.4 million to
1.6 million barrels, an increase of 13% to 28%
- Majority equity and operatorship across all Senex
interests in the Cooper Basin Western Flank
200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 FY14 guidance
Barrels of oil
Annual oil production (net)
Oil production underpins financial strength
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- 1. Midpoint of guidance
Net oil reserves upgraded:
- 2P reserves 10.8 mmbbls
- 3P reserves 21.4 mmbbls
- Reserves growth guidance of
4 to 6 million barrels1 in 2013/14
- High quality 3D seismic is the
key exploration tool Drilling underway:
- More than 30 exploration, appraisal and
development targets to be drilled in 2013/14
- Underexplored historically
- Working petroleum system throughout the
region provides increased confidence
Senex continues to deliver oil reserves growth
4.5 16.2 14.0 21.4 5 10 15 20 25 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 CAGR: 68% 0.0 3.3 4.2 5.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 1.6 6.4 8.2 10.8 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 CAGR: 89%
Net 3P reserves (mmbbls) Net 2P reserves (mmbbls) Net 1P reserves (mmbbls)
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1 Before production and divestments
The Cooper Basin has a long history…
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Source: APPEA, DMITRE (South Australia) and Senex estimates
5 10 15 20 25 mmbbls/year
The Cooper Basin has already produced 158 million barrels of oil
DECLINE 1986 to 2000 STABILISATION 2000 to 2011 REVITALISATION 2011 onwards
Estimated total Cooper Basin FY14 oil production
- Majority of past exploration
targeted structural traps
- 20% 3D seismic coverage
- Low well density
- Majority of gas and oil reservoirs
NOT fracture stimulated
- Rare use of secondary or
tertiary recovery
- Concentrated and low number
- f contractors
…by global standards it is immature
- Majority of current exploration
targets are stratigraphic traps
- 70%+ 3D seismic coverage
- High well density
- Production enhancement
methods are the norm
- Extensive use of secondary
and tertiary recovery methods
- Highly competitive contractor
market
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Mature Basin Cooper Basin
There is massive potential to “innovate”…
Bringing old ideas to new areas and new ideas to old areas:
- Fracture stimulation of both oil
and gas reservoirs
- Application of horizontal wells
- Underbalanced and at-balance
drilling
- Drilling with casing
- Patterned water-flooding
- And more…
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…with transformational 3D seismic
2D seismic only provides vertical sections of the earth in one direction 3D seismic provides sections in any direction for better definition of traps Exploration is all about “seeing” the subsurface to minimise risk
2D seismic line near Skipton-1 3D seismic image of Worrior oil field 17
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Summary
Oil is our strength
- Production guidance for 2013/14:
1.4 million to 1.6 million barrels
- Oil reserves growth guidance of 4 million
to 6 million barrels1 for 2013/14
- Material drilling program underway
Gas is our game changer
- Focus on early commercialisation of
Hornet gas field
- Monetisation of coal seam gas
1 Before production and divestments
Telephone +61 7 3837 9900 Email info@senexenergy.com.au Registered Office Level 14, 144 Edward Street GPO Box 2233 Brisbane Queensland 4000 Australia