ENERGY PORTFOLIO UPDATE
SEPTEMBER 2019
ENERGY PORTFOLIO UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2019 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ENERGY PORTFOLIO UPDATE SEPTEMBER 2019 CAUTIONARY STATEMENT Forward Looking Statements This presentation contains forward looking information and forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws and
SEPTEMBER 2019
Forward Looking Statements
This presentation contains “forward looking information” and “forward looking statements” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws and the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, respectively, which may include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to future events or future performance, management’s expectations regarding Franco-Nevada’s growth, results of operations, estimated future revenues, carrying value of assets, future dividends and requirements for additional capital, mineral reserve and mineral resource estimates, production estimates, production costs and revenue, future demand for and prices of commodities, expected mining sequences, business prospects and opportunities and the remedies relating to and consequences of the ruling of the Supreme Court of Panama in relation to the Cobre Panama project. In addition, statements (including data in tables) relating to reserves and resources and gold equivalent ounces are forward looking statements, as they involve implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, and no assurance can be given that the estimates and assumptions are accurate and that such reserves and resources and gold equivalent ounces will be realized. Such forward looking statements reflect management’s current beliefs and are based on information currently available to management. Often, but not always, forward looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects”, “is expected”, “budgets”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “predicts”, “projects”, “intends”, “targets”, “aims”, “anticipates” or “believes” or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases or may be identified by statements to the effect that certain actions “may”, “could”, “should”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause the actual results, performance
any forward looking statement, including, without limitation: fluctuations in the prices of the primary commodities that drive royalty and stream revenue (gold, platinum group metals, copper, nickel, uranium, silver, iron-ore and oil and gas); fluctuations in the value of the Canadian, Australian dollar and Mexican Peso and any other currency in which revenue is generated, relative to the U.S. dollar; changes in national and local government legislation, including permitting and licensing regimes and taxation policies, and the enforcement thereof; regulatory, political or economic developments in any of the countries where properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest are located or through which they are held; risks related to the
are pursued by Franco-Nevada; reduced access to debt and equity capital; litigation; title, permit or license disputes related to interests on any of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest; whether or not Franco-Nevada is determined to have “passive foreign investment company” (“PFIC”) status as defined in Section 1297 of the United States Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended; potential changes in Canadian tax treatment of offshore streams; excessive cost escalation as well as development, permitting, infrastructure, operating or technical difficulties on any of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest; actual mineral content may differ from the reserves and resources contained in technical reports; rate and timing of production differences from resource estimates, other technical reports and mine plans; risks and hazards associated with the business of development and mining on any of the properties in which Franco- Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest, including, but not limited to unusual or unexpected geological and metallurgical conditions, slope failures or cave-ins, flooding and other natural disasters, terrorism, civil unrest or an outbreak of contagious disease; and the integration of acquired assets. The forward looking statements contained in this presentation are based upon assumptions management believes to be reasonable, including, without limitation: the ongoing operation of the properties in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest by the owners or operators of such properties in a manner consistent with past practice; the accuracy of public statements and disclosures made by the owners or operators of such underlying properties; no material adverse change in the market price of the commodities that underlie the asset portfolio; Franco-Nevada’s ongoing income and assets relating to determination of its PFIC status; no material changes to existing tax treatment; the expected application of tax laws and regulations by taxation authorities; the expected assessment and outcome of any audit by any taxation authority; no adverse development in respect of any significant property in which Franco-Nevada holds a royalty, stream or other interest; the accuracy of publicly disclosed expectations for the development of underlying properties that are not yet in production; integration of acquired assets; and the absence of any other factors that could cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. However, there can be no assurance that forward looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements and investors are cautioned that forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Franco-Nevada cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward looking statements and investors should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. For additional information with respect to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please refer to the “Risk Factors” section of Franco-Nevada’s most recent Annual Information Form filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com and Franco-Nevada’s most recent Annual Report filed on Form 40-F filed with the SEC on www.sec.gov. The forward-looking statements herein are made as of the date herein only and Franco-Nevada does not assume any obligation to update or revise them to reflect new information, estimates or opinions, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
Non-IFRS Measures
Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EBITDA and Margin are intended to provide additional information only and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”). They do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS, and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Management uses these measures to evaluate the underlying operating performance of the Company as a whole for the reporting periods presented, to assist with the planning and forecasting of future operating results, and to supplement information in its financial statements. The Company also uses Margin in its annual incentive compensation process to evaluate management’s performance in increasing revenue and containing costs. Management believes that in addition to measures prepared in accordance with IFRS such as Net Income and Earnings per Share (“EPS”), our investors and analysts use these measures to evaluate the results of the underlying business of the Company, particularly since the excluded items are typically not included in guidance. While the adjustments to Net Income and EPS include items that are both recurring and non-recurring, management believes these measures are useful measures of the Company’s performance because they adjust for items which may not relate to or have a disproportionate effect on the period in which they are recognized, impact the comparability of our core operating results from period to period, are not always reflective of the underlying operating performance of our business, and/or are not necessarily indicative of future operating results. For a reconciliation of these measures to various IFRS measures, please see the end of this presentation or the Company’s most recent Management’s Discussion and Analysis filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com and with the SEC on www.sec.gov. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security in any jurisdiction.
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OUR BOARD
Highly experienced in resource investments Owners with >$300 million invested1 Risk averse Board renewal and succession
OUR BUSINESS MODEL
Focused on exploration upside Avoid long term debt Sustainable and progressive dividends
OUR EXECUTIVES
Lower G&A than comparables Active with deals and structural innovations Most opportunistic in the commodity cycle
OUR PORTFOLIO
Strongest growth profile Greatest diversity (lowest single asset exposure) Most exploration optionality (> 370 assets and
44,000 km2)
1. Common shares held per March 2019 circular and July 31, 2019 share price.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1/2019 2023E
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Weyburn NRI Acquisition STACK Acquisition Midland Basin Acquisition Delaware Basin Acquisition STACK II Acquisition Marcellus ORR Acquisition Orion Acquisition Franco-Nevada Corporation IPO
Target for Energy Revenue of up to 20 % of Total Revenue
Energy as % of Total Revenue
1. For 2023 Estimate: Assumes midpoint of 570,000 to 610,000 GEO guidance, midpoint of $170 to $190 million Energy revenue guidance including Marcellus transaction. Not updated for First Quantum’s technical report of March 29, 2019 projecting an expansion of Cobre Panama’s mill throughput to 100mtpa from 85mtpa 2. Commodity prices assume: $1,400/oz. Au, $16.00/oz. Ag, $850/oz. Pt and $1,500/oz. Pd, $55/bbl. WTI.
Continental Resources Strategic Partnership
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Why Now
Diver ersifi sifica cati tion
Opportu tuni nity y Rich h – >12 million private royalty owners & PE looking to exit Timi ming ng – Favourable point in commodity cycle - accelerating activity and productivity Ad Additiona nal Growth th – Acquiring royalties ahead of large capital spend to develop multi- decade resources
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Why U.S. Royalty Space
Secure re Titl tle – Lowest risk globally Favoura rable Juri risdiction diction - U.S. tax reform & pro business Highl hly Economi mic - Focused on most economic and active shale basins Long Life - Expect 20 - 40 years of development Low R Risk sk - Diversified operatorship & minimal cost exposure Scale – Perpetual royalty space 20x the size of Canada
Marcellus
1. RBC Capital Markets Estimates
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Market Size of US Energy Royalties(1)
Public Market TEV: 2.2% Private Market: 4.3% Federal Lands: 8.2% Indian Lands: 1.0% Land Trusts: 1.2% Other: 83.1%
Only 2% of royalty market is held by public companies
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~$520B
Public Company Market Capitalization
U.S. Private Equity have accumulated substantial Energy royalty holdings and many are seeking to exit
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1. Source – Bloomberg/EIA Anadarko (SCOOP/STACK)
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Production (million barrels per day)
U.S. Crude Oil Shale Production (2008-2018)
Permian Anadarko Eagle Ford Bakken DJ Niobrara Haynesville Appalachia
Permian
~50% CAGR
20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 Production (billion cubic feet per day)
U.S. Natural Gas Shale Production (2008-2019)
Marcellus Barnett Eagle Ford Haynesville Fayettevile Woodford Utica Bakken Antrim Rest of U.S.
Marcellus
Oil production in Permian Basin has surpassed Canada & Marcellus now produces more gas than Canada
FNV Investment FNV Investment
1. Source: XTO
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Full field d developme pment: nt: XTO to increase Permian production to > 1mmboe/d by 2024 (~4X increase)1 CLR Project Springboard Conso solida dati tion: n: Encana $5.5B acquisition of Newfield – SCOOP/STACK Focus Occidental $57B acquisition of Anadarko – Permian Focus
Trend is for majors/senior operators with strong balance sheets to acquire assets in the leading basins as they move to full field development
Source: Barclays Research
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1. Total Returns since Jan 1, 2018 Sector performance based on U.S. ETFs tracking each sector, except Minerals which is calculated as the average return of Black Stone Minerals, Viper Energy Partners, and Kimbell Royalty Partners 2. Source: S&P Capital IQ
U.S. Energy Royalties is a rapidly growing sector despite a depressed overall energy market
25% 17% 14% 14% 14% 11% 5% 5% 4% (3%) (12%) (21%) (24%)
Technology Utilities Consumer Discretionary U.S. Royalties REITs Health Care Consumer Staples Industrials Financials Communication Services Materials Energy Oil & Gas
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Most significant operators on FNV Acreage: Exposure to multiple basins and >120 different operators
Marcellus STACK SCOOP Orion Delaware Midland Weyburn/ Midale
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1. Estimated Life is Total Undeveloped Potential Well Locations on royalty lands/2018 Wells Drilled on royalty lands. Does not include additional years of decline after new wells stop being drilled.
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2018 Wells Drilled Estimated Undeveloped Well Locations Potential Drilling Inventory Life (1) SCOOP/STACK 205 4,700 23 years Permian 284 11,300 40 years Marcellus 78 2,400 31 years
FNV U.S. Horizontal Fracking Assets
Assets have multi-decade drilling potential followed by long tail
Geology - Stacked Pay
Source: BMO Research & IHS
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Recovery & Productivity Drilling Improvements
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Drilling Days (10,000’ TLL)
Drilling Efficiency
Delaware Midland SCOOP/STACK
Midland Basin Well Productivity (Lateral Adjusted Basis) Weyburn Unit Oil Production – Impact of EOR
Source: IHS and Industry Research. Type curves derived from the average of time-normalized public production data from all wells spud by basin 2017+ with >1,500 ft lateral length (normalized to 7,500 ft laterals). Basin-specific commercial assumptions based on public operator disclosure, including D&C costs, operating expenses, gas shrink, NGL yield, and oil & gas basis differentials. Production taxes based on actual rates by state. Economics assume 5-year NYMEX strip pricing as of 8/22/2019 (flat thereafter).
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U.S. acquisition focus on quality plays with attractive economics
$51.20 $49.30 $48.60 $47.70 $44.60 $44.20 $43.30 $42.90 $39.00 $38.90 $38.90 $37.20 $35.40 $32.40 $27.10 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 $50.00 $60.00 NE Marcellus Utica Haynesville Piceance Central Basin Platform San Juan DJ Eagle Ford STACK SW Marcellus Bakken Uinta Midland SCOOP Delaware Break-Even Oil Price ($/Bbl) @ 10% BTAX ROR (25:1 Oil/Gas Pricing Ratio) FNV Basins Oil-Weighted Basin Gas-Weighted Basin High breakeven and Low IRR Low breakeven and High IRR
Source: Enverus (DrillingInfo)
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Activity levels are indicative of favourable economics to operators
57 55 49 42 38 29 24 23 22 22 21 20 20 15 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 Reeves (TX) Lea (NM) Eddy (NM) Midland (TX) Martin (TX) Loving (TX) Upton (TX) Grady (OK) Howard (TX) Converse (WY) Mckenzie (ND) Ward (TX) Weld (CO) Pecos (TX) Williams (ND) Reagan (TX) Canadian (OK) Karnes (TX) Winkler (TX) De Soto (LA) Andrews (TX) Kern (CA) Culberson (TX) Dunn (ND) Mountrail (ND) Dewitt (TX) Webb (TX) Sublette (WY) Kingfisher (OK) Campbell (WY) La Salle (TX) Gonzales (TX) San Augustine (TX) Belmont (OH) Atascosa (TX) Burleson (TX) Marshall (WV) Red River (LA) Glasscock (TX) Blaine (OK) Panola (TX) Greene (PA) Dimmit (TX) Susquehanna (PA) Garvin (OK) Harrison (TX) Bossier (LA) White (IL) Sweetwater (WY) Dewey (OK) FNV Royalties No FNV Royalties
Active Rig Count by U.S. County
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DATE Amount Asset Q4 2016 $100M STACK, Oklahoma Q1 2017 $115M Midland, Permian Basin Q2 2017 $28M STACK II, Oklahoma Q3 2017 $74M Orion, Alberta Q4 2017 $101M Delaware, Permian Basin Q3 2018 $520M Continental Strategic Relationship, Oklahoma Q2 2019 $300M Marcellus, Pennsylvania
>$1.2B .2B comm mmitt tted ed since ce 2016 6
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Continental Resources
EV: $16 Billion Leading SCOOP/STACK operator 2019 Capex plan: $2.6B with 19 of 25 rigs in the SCOOP/STACK Guidance of SCOOP/STACK production 12.5% CAGR 2019-2023 Vehicle to acquire royalties at grass-roots level Benefit from operator’s drill plans and knowledge of local land title & geology Less administrative burden to FNV
Transaction Strategy
FNV acquires $220M in royalty interests from Continental and commits $300M over 3 years to acquire royalties with Continental – August 2018 Greater certainty of timing of development
Source: Continental’s public disclosure filings
Diver ersifi sification: ation: Gas diversification with economics underpinned by liquids Desi sirable able Basins: sins: Marcellus & Utica have attractive economics and ~40% of US gas production Low Risk: sk: ~1,000 producing wells drilled on property since 2007 Strong
rent Cash h Flow: 2020 revenue forecast of $25M growing to $30M in 5 years Long g Life: e: Inventory of ~2,400 undrilled wells (78 wells drilled in 2018) Up Upsi side: : Exposure to multiple formations (Marcellus/Utica/Upper Devonian)
1. All metrics relate to the ORR royalty area. Revenue forecasts based on $55/bbl. WTI, and $2.40/mcf Henry Hub
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$300M for a 1% ORR covering ~350,000 acres of Range Resources core position in SW Pennsylvania
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1. Assumes ~U.S.$81M revenue in 2019 at WTI of $55 US$/bbl and $2.40/mcf Henry Hub .
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$- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2023
Average WTI Oil Price (U.S.$/bbl) Energy Revenue, U.S.$ (U.S. Millions)
Annual Net Revenue
Other Weyburn Permian STACK/SCOOP Guidance - Lower Guidance - Upper WTI 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Energy Production, MBoe
Annual Net Production
Weyburn Other STACK/SCOOP Permian
Oil 86% Gas 10% NGL 4%
Q2 2019
COMMOD ODIT ITY
Weyburn SCOOP/STACK Permian Other
Q2 2019
BASIN IN
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US 43% CDN 57%
Q2 2019
GE GEOGRAP GRAPHIC HIC
Q2/2019 Energy Revenue: $27.6M
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$86.1M $100M $160M $115M $180M
$- $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $- $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2023E WTI (U.S.$/bbl) RevenU.S., U.S.$ (millions)
Annual Net Revenue
Actual Guidance - Lower Guidance - Upper WTI
Addition of: STACK 1 Addition of: STACK 2 Midland Delaware Orion Addition of: CLR Royalty Acquisition Vehicle Addition of: Marcellus ORR Guidance incorporates $55/bbl WTI and $2.40/mcf NYMEX. 5 Year Outlook assumes full deployment of capital commitments for Continental Royalty Acquisition Venture. Leverage assumes gas prices remain constant.
WTI increa eases ses 10% % : Reven enue ue increases ases 11%
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