energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services Sylvain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services Sylvain - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Cost and potential of renewable energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services Sylvain Leduc(1), Florian Kraxner(1), Sennai Mesfun(2), Hernn Serrano Len(1), Giulia Geregnani(3), Georg Kindermann(1), Sabine Fuss (1,4), Annika

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Cost and potential of renewable energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services

Sylvain Leduc(1), Florian Kraxner(1), Sennai Mesfun(2), Hernán Serrano León(1), Giulia Geregnani(3), Georg Kindermann(1), Sabine Fuss (1,4), Annika Marxen(4,5), Chris Walzer(6)

(1) Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (2) Luleå University of Technology, Sweden (3) EURAC - European Academy of Bozen/Bolzano, Italy (4) Working Group on Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany (5) Technical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany (6) Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria

Swedish Association for Energy Economics Conference 2016 Luleå, Sweden, 23 August 2016

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Outline

  • Background
  • Objective
  • Methodology
  • Results
  • Online-tool
  • Conclusion

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Background

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  • Renewable energy (RE): EU climate change policy (2009/28/EC), nuclear phase-out
  • Alpine Convention’s Energy Protocol: Alpine region to make a long-term contribution to

meeting Europe’s energy needs (EC 2005, p. 37)

  • Concern: ESS often compete with RE for productive sites  important tradeoffs to be

analyzed to maintain ES functions and services under increasing RE demand and other pressures.

  • Contributions:
  • Detailed spatial analysis of renewable energy solutions and tradeoffs in in multifunctional

landscapes

  • Quantification and visualization of ecological-economic tradeoffs without making assumptions on

weights and preferences and judgments about valuation

  • Support decision-makers in forming strategies offering robustness across uncertainties
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Objective

To identify the potential and cost of production

  • f renewable energy (RE) in the Alps

in regards with the protection

  • f the ecosystems services (ESS)

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Forest resources Crop residuals Algae MSW Solar Wind Hydro Biofuel Heat Power Power to liquid/gas Biogas Fertilizers Biochar Co-firing Ecosystem services BECCS Geothermal

The BeWhere Umbrella

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BeWhere Model

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Reference system Demand

New bioenergy plants Existing industries

Biomass

Heat & power Transport fuel Fossil fuel Forest industries Biomass import Sawmill residuals Domestic biomass Biofuel Import CHP Optional flows Existing flows

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Input Data

  • Distribution

– Road, train network – Power lines – Power stations

  • Costs and emissions

– Transport – Distribution – Plant setup and OM

  • Production sites

– Existing infrastructure – Techno-economic param.

  • Fossil fuel

– Power/heat price – Fossil fuel use

  • Protected areas
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BeWhere answers…

(1)Number (2)Technologies (3)Size (4)Locations

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Costs Emission avoided Direct emissions Economic potential Trades Policy tool

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  • G4M estimates the impact of

forestry activities on carbon sequestration and supply of biomass in the Alps (258,000 km2 total area, 115,000 km2 forest).

  • Forests managed to maximize

two ecosystem values through changing the rotation period: S1: Maximization of carbon stock in forests. S2: Maximization of biomass production.

tC/ha

Ecosystem trade-offs of forest areas

1: Carbon sequestration scenario (stock) 2: Biomass production scenario (stock) tC/ha

Source: G4M www.iiasa.ac.at/g4m

S1: Carbon sequestration S2: Biomass production Harvest potential Mt C /year 11 23 Carbon stock Mt C 1,057 577

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Source: BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/Bewhere

S2: Biomass production scenario (increment)

Economic bioenergy potential

BeWhere estimates the optimal allocation of bioenergy production plants and associated harvesting intensity.

  • Bioenergy is competing with
  • ther energy production types

(i.e. costs of fossil fuels).

  • Economic supply: 14 TWh

(heat & electricity) met by both scenarios.

  • Significant local difference of

harvesting intensity.

S1: Carbon sequestration scenario (increment)

Harvesting intensity/cell (1,000 m3/ yr) Total harvested amount in S1: (1,000 m3/ yr) Total harvested amount in S2: (1,000 m3/ yr) 0 – 12 208 88 13 – 32 1,098 498 33 – 60 2,820 1,341 61 – 87 1,851 1,194 88 – 141 478 3,290

1,000 m3 tC/ha tC/ha 1,000 m3

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National Park

National Park

DESIGN_ENG

Alps Convention National Park National Park - Core Area National Park - Integrale Reserve

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Nature Reserve

Nature Reserve

Nature Reserve Alps Convention

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Natural Park

Natural Park

Natural Park Alps Convention

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Particular Protection

Legend

Particular Protection

DESIGN_ENG

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Particular Protection

Legend

Particular Protection

DESIGN_ENG

DESIGN_ENG

Biosphere Park Biosphere reserves Biotope Protection Order Dry Grasslands Ecological Important Area Emerald Sites Federal Hunting Reserves Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I* Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of * Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures * Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa* Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire* Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and * Fenlands of National Importance Flora Protection Area Forest Biological Reserve Forest Reserve Horticultural Monument Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio* Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur* Landscape Park Landscape Protection Area Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo* Mire Landscapes of National Importance National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve Natural Monument Natural Monument or Site Other Protected Natural Regional Areas

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Natura 2000

Natura 2000 Alps Convention

Natura 2000

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UNESCO Protection

UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Alps Convention

UNESCO Protection

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IUCN Categories

International Union for Conservation of Nature

Ia Ib II III IV VI

Ia – Strict Nature Reserve Ib – Wilderness Area II – National Park III – Natural Monument or Feature IV – Habitat/Species Management Area V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

IUCN Categories

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Ia Ib II III IV VI

Ia – Strict Nature Reserve Ib – Wilderness Area II – National Park III – Natural Monument or Feature IV – Habitat/Species Management Area V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

IUCN Categories UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage

Natura 2000

IUCN Categories

International Union for Conservation of Nature

Sources: combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC.

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Harmonized Protected Areas

Scenario 1 – General protection level

30 50

Production restrictions High protection Medium protection Low protection

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Solar & Wind

Solar Wind

Source: Garegnani et al. Evaluation of wind, solar and hydro energy potential using GRASS, FOSS4G-Europe 2015, July 14th - 17th 2015, Como.

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Theoretical Potential

Solar potential Wind potential

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Theoretical Potential by Catchment

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Existing Hydropower Station

Source: Carma Own calculation

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Remaining Potential (1)

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Remaining Potential (1)

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Reduced Potential (2)

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Reduced Potential (2)

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Reduced Potential Breakdown

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Marginal protection cost

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0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Abatment cost change Protection level

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JECAMI

http://www.jecami.eu/

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  • Forests provide a number of essential ecosystem services

and the full range of implication of changes in management needs to be considered.

  • The pros and cons of RE production have to be weighted

against each other in an integrated and systematic manner while considering trade-offs with ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration or biodiversity).

Summary and Outlook

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Thank you!

More information on IIASA

www.iiasa.ac.at

More on BeWhere

www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere

Contact

Sylvain Leduc, leduc@iiasa.ac.at

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