Cost and potential of renewable energy in the Alps while protecting ecosystems services Sylvain Leduc(1), Florian Kraxner(1), Sennai Mesfun(2), Hernán Serrano León(1), Giulia Geregnani(3), Georg Kindermann(1), Sabine Fuss (1,4), Annika Marxen(4,5), Chris Walzer(6) (1) Ecosystems Services and Management Program, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (2) Luleå University of Technology, Sweden (3) EURAC - European Academy of Bozen/Bolzano, Italy (4) Working Group on Sustainable Resource Management and Global Change, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany (5) Technical University Berlin, Berlin, Germany (6) Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria Swedish Association for Energy Economics Conference 2016 Luleå, Sweden, 23 August 2016
Outline • Background • Objective • Methodology • Results • Online-tool • Conclusion 2
Background • Renewable energy (RE): EU climate change policy (2009/28/EC), nuclear phase-out • Alpine Convention’s Energy Protocol: Alpine region to make a long-term contribution to meeting Europe’s energy needs (EC 2005, p. 37) Concern: ESS often compete with RE for productive sites important tradeoffs to be • analyzed to maintain ES functions and services under increasing RE demand and other pressures. • Contributions: Detailed spatial analysis of renewable energy solutions and tradeoffs in in multifunctional landscapes Quantification and visualization of ecological-economic tradeoffs without making assumptions on weights and preferences and judgments about valuation Support decision-makers in forming strategies offering robustness across uncertainties 3
Objective To identify the potential and cost of production of renewable energy (RE) in the Alps in regards with the protection of the ecosystems services (ESS) 4
The BeWhere Umbrella Forest resources Crop residuals Biofuel MSW Heat Algae Biochar Solar Fertilizers Wind Biogas Hydro Power Ecosystem services Power to liquid/gas Geothermal Co-firing BECCS 5
BeWhere Model Domestic Forest biomass industries Heat Fossil fuel & power CHP Sawmill residuals Existing Biofuel industries Transport fuel Biomass Import import Reference Biomass New bioenergy Demand system plants Existing flows Optional flows 6
Input Data • Distribution • Production sites – Road, train network – Existing infrastructure – Power lines – Techno-economic – Power stations param. • Costs and emissions • Fossil fuel – Transport – Power/heat price – Distribution – Fossil fuel use – Plant setup and OM • Protected areas
BeWhere answers… (1)Number Policy tool Costs (2)Technologies Emission avoided (3)Size Direct emissions Economic potential (4)Locations Trades 31/08/2016 8
Ecosystem trade-offs of forest areas • G4M estimates the impact of 1: Carbon sequestration scenario (stock) tC/ha forestry activities on carbon sequestration and supply of biomass in the Alps (258,000 km 2 total area, 115,000 km 2 forest). • Forests managed to maximize two ecosystem values through changing the rotation period: S1: Maximization of carbon stock in forests. 2: Biomass production scenario (stock) tC/ha S2: Maximization of biomass production. S1: Carbon S2: Biomass sequestration production Harvest potential 11 23 Mt C /year Carbon stock 1,057 577 Mt C Source: G4M www.iiasa.ac.at/g4m
Economic bioenergy potential BeWhere estimates the optimal S1: Carbon sequestration scenario (increment) allocation of bioenergy 1,000 m 3 tC/ha production plants and associated harvesting intensity. • Bioenergy is competing with other energy production types (i.e. costs of fossil fuels). • Economic supply: 14 TWh (heat & electricity) met by both scenarios. • Significant local difference of S2: Biomass production scenario (increment) harvesting intensity. tC/ha 1,000 m 3 Harvesting Total Total intensity/cell harvested harvested (1,000 m 3 / yr) amount in S1: amount in S2: (1,000 m 3 / yr) (1,000 m 3 / yr) 0 – 12 208 88 13 – 32 1,098 498 33 – 60 2,820 1,341 61 – 87 1,851 1,194 88 – 141 478 3,290 Source: BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/Bewhere
National Park National Park DESIGN_ENG National Park National Park - Core Area National Park - Integrale Reserve Alps Convention
Nature Reserve Nature Reserve Nature Reserve Alps Convention
Natural Park Natural Park Natural Park Alps Convention
Particular Protection Legend Particular Protection DESIGN_ENG
Particular Protection Legend Particular Protection DESIGN_ENG DESIGN_ENG Biosphere Park Biosphere reserves Biotope Protection Order Dry Grasslands Ecological Important Area Emerald Sites Federal Hunting Reserves Federal Inventory of Alluvial Zones of National I* Federal Inventory of Amphibian Spawning Areas of * Federal Inventory of Dry Grasslands and Pastures * Federal Inventory of Fenlands of National Importa* Federal Inventory of Raised and Transitional Mire* Federal Inventory of Reserves for Waterbirds and * Fenlands of National Importance Flora Protection Area Forest Biological Reserve Forest Reserve Horticultural Monument Land acquired by Conservatoire du Littoral (natio* Land acquired by a regional conservatory of natur* Landscape Park Landscape Protection Area Landscapes and Natural Monuments of National Impo* Mire Landscapes of National Importance National Hunting and Wildlife Reserve Natural Monument Natural Monument or Site Other Protected Natural Regional Areas
Natura 2000 Natura 2000 Natura 2000 Alps Convention
UNESCO Protection UNESCO Protection UNESCO Biosphere Reserve UNESCO World Heritage Alps Convention
IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN Categories Ia – Strict Nature Reserve Ia Ib – Wilderness Area Ib II II – National Park III III – Natural Monument or Feature IV IV – Habitat/Species Management Area V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable VI Use of Natural Resources
IUCN Categories International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN Categories UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Ia – Strict Nature Reserve Ia UNESCO World Heritage Ib – Wilderness Area Ib II II – National Park Natura 2000 III III – Natural Monument or Feature IV IV – Habitat/Species Management Area V – Protected Landscape VI – Protected Area with Sustainable VI Use of Natural Resources 19 Sources : combined from EEA - European Environment Agency, WDPA - World Database on Protected Areas, and ALPARC.
Harmonized Protected Areas Scenario 1 – General protection level Production restrictions 0 High protection 30 Medium protection 50 Low protection 20
Solar & Wind Solar Wind Source: Garegnani et al. Evaluation of wind, solar and hydro energy potential using GRASS, FOSS4G-Europe 2015, July 14th - 17th 2015, Como.
Theoretical Potential Solar potential Wind potential
Theoretical Potential by Catchment
Existing Hydropower Station Source: Carma Own calculation
Remaining Potential (1)
Remaining Potential (1)
Reduced Potential (2)
Reduced Potential (2)
Reduced Potential Breakdown
Marginal protection cost 5% Abatment cost change 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Protection level 30
JECAMI http://www.jecami.eu/ 31
Summary and Outlook • Forests provide a number of essential ecosystem services and the full range of implication of changes in management needs to be considered. • The pros and cons of RE production have to be weighted against each other in an integrated and systematic manner while considering trade-offs with ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration or biodiversity).
Thank you! More information on IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at More on BeWhere www.iiasa.ac.at/bewhere Contact Sylvain Leduc, leduc@iiasa.ac.at 33
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