Energies Douglas Arent, Ph.D., Deputy Associate Laboratory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Energies Douglas Arent, Ph.D., Deputy Associate Laboratory - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 10, 2022 158 likes •418 views

Technology, Policy and Finance for Clean and Renewable Energies Douglas Arent, Ph.D., Deputy Associate Laboratory Director, Scientific Computing and Energy Analysis UNU-WIDER; September 2018 NREL at a Glance nearly $872M 1,800 750

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Technology, Policy and Finance for Clean and Renewable Energies

Douglas Arent, Ph.D., Deputy Associate Laboratory Director, Scientific Computing and Energy Analysis UNU-WIDER; September 2018

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NREL | 2

National economic impact

facilities, renowned technology experts

World-class

with industry, academia, and government

Partnerships

  • perates as a

living laboratory

Campus National economic impact

NREL at a Glance

$872M

annually

1,800

Employees,

early-career researchers and visiting scientists

\

nearly

750

National economic impact

plus more than

400

NREL advances the science and engineering of energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, and renewable power technologies and provides the knowledge to integrate and optimize energy systems..

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MEGA TRENDS

Global Trends in Digitization, Decentralization, Decarbonization

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NREL | 4

World Energy Consumption Rises 28% between 2015 and 2040

200 400 600 800 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

OECD Non-OECD

2015

Quadrillion Btu

World Energy Consumption

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NREL | 5

Electrification Will Dominate Energy Growth

International Energy Outlook 2017

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NREL | 6

Renewables Dominate Power Capacity Growth

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Global Renewable Power Capacity

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High Shares of Variable Renewable Power on the Grid

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➜ Global new investment in renewable power and fuels in 2017: USD 279.8 billion (+2.2%) (USD 319.8 billion incl. large hydropower) ➜ Investment in new renewable power capacity roughly three times that in new fossil fuel capacity ➜ Renewable energy: 68% of the total amount committed to new power-generating capacity in 2017 ➜ USD 310 billion (est.) committed to constructing new renewable power plants, compared to:

  • Fossil fuel-fired generating capacity: USD

103 billion

  • Nuclear power capacity:

USD 42 billion

Global Investment in Renewable Energy

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NREL | 10

Costs and Performance of PV exemplifies decadal advancements

IRENA, 2016; PV Auction Prices

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 11

Potential of Wind: More Generation as Turbines Grow

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 12

Wind Energy Potential Capacity at 80m Hub Height 2008 Turbine Technology

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 13

Wind Energy Potential Capacity at 110m Hub Height 2014 Turbine Technology

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 14

Wind Energy Potential Capacity at 140m Hub Height ‘Near Future’ Turbine Technology (150W/m2)

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 15

Wind and Solar Add Variability to Supply Side

Wind and solar add variability and uncertainty to the generation supply, increasing the need for grid flexibility.

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 16

Rooftop PV adoption Temporal Resolution Global U.S. Regional/ Balancing Area Generator Sub-hourly Annual Hourly

Electricity Modeling at Multiple Scales

National policy, market, technology analysis Hourly plant output Automatic generation control (AGC) & dispatch Regional integrated resource planning Global energy-economic-climate wind, solar, demand, generator, transmission Security-constrained unit commitment & economic dispatch Seasonal/Diurnal Geographic Scale Agent Based Models

  • f Customer

Behavior

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Gaining insights from Advanced Visualization

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 18

ERGIS Visualization

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NREL | 19

India’s 2022 100 GW Solar Goal Requires an Evolution in Power System Planning

Solar (and wind) generation is variable, uncertain, and location-constrained… …raising new considerations for grid planning and operations

  • 1. More flexibility is needed to balance supply and demand
  • 2. More transmission might be necessary
  • 3. Grid services (e.g. inertial response) from wind/solar or
  • ther equipment come at additional cost
  • 4. Existing conventional generators are needed, but run less,

affecting cost recovery

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India’s power system with 160 GW wind and solar— Achieving system balance every 15 minutes

http://www.nrel.gov/india-grid-integration

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The Evolving Power System

Transitioning today: Restructuring, New Business Models, New Technologies

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A Few Takeaways

  • Technology advances are changing the landscape
  • IT & ET & Business model Innovations…
  • Renewables offer domestic advantages with potential

economy wide benefits:

  • Price certainty, trade, water/food, health…
  • Policy, Finance/business models enable or

hinder change

  • Power Sector Structural reforms underway

across the globe

  • Innovation in Financing and Financial reforms continue

to evolve to support creative business solutions

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NREL | 23

Human-Centered Innovation

It is not the essential nature of a technology that matters but its capacity to fit into the social, political, and economic conditions of the day.

–The Economist, March 12, 2012 “The Dream that Failed”

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NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 24

www.nrel.gov www.21stcenturypower.org www.cleanenergysolutions.org

References and Resources