Elliott D. Pollack & Company Scope of Work • Identify any potential stressors to the financial conditions of Buckeye Valley Fire District and the service levels of emergency ambulance service within the City of Buckeye. 1
Sources Consulted: • Maricopa Association of Governments Socioeconomic Projections -2016 (current and future land use, population projections) • U.S. Census (incorporated city boundaries) • Arizona Tax Research Association (property tax history of tax base, rates, revenue) • City of Buckeye (Boundary Map, Annexation Map) • Arizona Department of Health Services (CON designations) • Buckeye Valley Fire District (ARCRs, Financial Statements) • Elliott D. Pollack & Company Report on Arizona Fire District Revenue Outlook – June 2015 • Arizona Revised Statutes (property tax cap on fire districts) • Maricopa County Assessor (property counts & attributes) 2
Key Principles 1. The Buckeye Valley Fire District provides ambulance services to the current population of its CON at an operating loss. Thus, any increase in the population would create greater losses. 2. The operational gap between BVFD’s ambulance revenue and expense is directly or indirectly supplemented by BVFD property taxes. 3. The Buckeye Valley Fire District collects property taxes from properties located within their CON but NOT within incorporated city areas (Buckeye and Surprise). These are excluded from their tax base. 4. When the population of the CON increases within the incorporated areas of Buckeye and Surprise, BVFD must provide increased ambulance service with no matching increase to their property tax base. 5. Cities like Buckeye and Surprise have an incorporated boundary and a Municipal Planning Area (MPA). The MPA is a larger defined boundary that will eventually become part of the city through annexation. 6. Annexations by Buckeye and Surprise within the BVFD CON will reduce the property tax base of BVFD. 3
Key Findings 1. The population in this region is expected to grow rapidly. The need for substantial investment in additional vehicles, equipment, stations, and personnel will create stress on BVFD’s ambulance operation by increasing their operating losses. 2. Most of the population increases will be within the incorporated cities of Buckeye and Surprise, providing no new matching property taxes for BVFD while creating more demand for ambulance services. 3. As development occurs within unincorporated areas of the MPA of both Buckeye and Surprise, these cities will eventually annex that land, further decreasing the property tax base of BVFD. 4
City of Buckeye Future Conditions 5
Buckeye is still largely agricultural and undeveloped. There is limited commercial development thus far. 6
Currently, Buckeye’s population is found along the I-10 as well as some areas south of the highway. 7
(at Buildout) Buckeye is expected to grow by hundreds of thousands of people as well as add a significant amount of commercial and employment uses in the region. 8
The City of Buckeye is expected to double in the next 15 years and quadruple by 2040. Including areas that will eventually be annexed, the City will be 5 times the size it is today by 2040. Buckeye Population - Historical & Projected Incorporated City of Buckeye Buckeye Municipal Planning Area Avg Annual Avg Annual Change in Percent Change in Percent Year Population Population Change Population Population Change 1990 4,436 2000 6,537 2,101 4.0% 2010 50,876 44,339 22.8% 62,807 2015 61,173 10,297 3.8% 72,900 10,093 3.0% 2020 74,400 13,227 4.0% 87,700 14,800 3.8% Population 2025 89,200 14,800 3.7% Doubles 2030 123,900 34,700 6.8% 147,600 59,900 5.3% 2035 183,200 59,300 8.1% Doubles 2040 258,000 74,800 7.1% 310,800 163,200 7.7% AGAIN 2045 329,500 71,500 5.0% 2050 401,300 71,800 4.0% 488,000 177,200 4.6% Source: Maricopa Association of Governments - June, 2016; U.S. Census Bureau 9
2010 Population Concentration 10
2020 Population Concentration 11
2030 Population Concentration 12
2040 Population Concentration 13
By 2040, Buckeye will be comparable in size to many major cities across the Valley. Future Population Comparisons City 2040 Population Buckeye 258,000 Buckeye MPA 310,800 Avondale 103,800 Chandler 311,200 Gilbert 292,300 Glendale 280,200 Glendale MPA 323,900 Goodyear 192,900 Peoria 278,000 Scottsdale 308,500 Surprise 295,200 Surprise MPA 362,200 Tempe 253,000 14 Source: Maricopa Association of Governments - June, 2016
City of Buckeye MPA represents about 86% of the BVFD CON population. Areas outside of the MPA serviced by BVFD’s ambulances are expected to grow by more than 50,000 residents over the next 25 years. This is in addition to the anticipated growth of 238,000 people within the City of Buckeye MPA. Historical & Projected Population Buckeye & Buckeye Valley Fire District CON INSIDE Buckeye Valley Fire Buckeye Municipal Planning District CON but OUTSIDE TOTAL Buckeye Valley Fire Area Buckeye MPA District Ambulatory CON Avg Avg Avg Annual Annual Annual Change in Percent Change in Percent Change in Percent Year Population Population Change Population Population Change Population Population Change 2015 72,900 12,116 85,016 2020 87,700 14,800 3.8% 12,662 546 0.9% 100,362 15,346 1.7% 2030 147,600 59,900 5.3% 19,411 6,749 4.4% 167,011 66,649 5.2% 2040 310,800 163,200 7.7% 76,628 57,217 14.7% 387,428 220,417 8.8% Source: Maricopa Association of Governments; U.S. Census Bureau 15
Population forecasts based on Maricopa Association of Governments 2016 population projections . Excluded partial areas from forecast. These regions will also Buckeye MPA have increased populations in need of ambulance service. There are already an estimated 7,125 homes in this portion of the CON representing an estimated 18,800 residents. 16
Total Population Count Buckeye Valley CON Population Estimates 2000 2003 2005 2010 2015 MAG Estimate 28,723 39,575 49,003 74,972 85,016 Excluded Parcel Population 3,900 4,856 7,505 18,343 18,802 CON TOTAL POPULATION 32,623 44,431 56,508 93,315 103,818 City of Buckeye Population 6,537 14,139 23,685 50,876 61,173 CON Net Population 26,086 30,292 32,823 42,439 42,645 BVFD Tax Base $40,348,188 $55,694,314 $78,643,977 $182,732,902 $115,447,669 Source: Maricopa Association of Governments - 2003, 2007, 2013, 2016; U.S. Census; Maricopa County Assessor; AZ State Demographer's Office 17
The rapid growth of additional residents throughout Buckeye and the BVFD CON region (300,000 new residents over the next 25 years) will create an ever increasing demand for ambulance services. This will require providers to invest substantial additional capital for equipment (vehicles, ambulance equipment, supplies), personnel, and additional real estate (locations near resident population). 18
Future Annexations by City of Buckeye 19
Incorporated City (orange areas) 391.2 sq. miles Municipal Planning Area 592.2 sq. miles BVFD only collects property taxes from unincorporated areas. Remaining 201 sq. miles (shown in white) will be annexed by Buckeye over time which will reduce the tax base of Buckeye Valley Fire District. 20
Future Annexations by City of Surprise 21
The southwest portion of Surprise is within the BVFD CON. Green areas represent incorporated city boundaries and white areas are currently unincorporated. 22
While mostly vacant now, areas of unincorporated City of Surprise within the BVFD CON are expected to see development in the future and will eventually be annexed, thus reducing the tax base of BVFD. Existing Land Use in CON – Mostly Vacant Future Land Use – Residential & Commercial 23
Buckeye Valley Fire District Future Conditions 24
The statutory limit for fire district property taxes set by the Arizona Legislature is $3.25 per $100 of assessed value. Buckeye Valley Fire District has reached that cap. Buckeye Valley Property Tax History Year Tax Rate Tax Base (NAV) Revenue % Change 1998 $1.3713 $32,660,587 $447,875 1999 $1.3693 $33,450,573 $458,039 2.3% 2000 $1.4207 $40,348,188 $573,227 25.1% 2001 $1.4141 $46,378,853 $655,843 14.4% 2002 $1.4233 $50,946,770 $725,125 10.6% 2003 $1.4156 $55,694,314 $788,409 8.7% 2004 $1.5121 $64,262,481 $971,713 23.2% 2005 $1.9945 $78,643,977 $1,568,554 61.4% 2006 $1.9883 $103,425,913 $2,056,417 31.1% 2007 $2.4616 $148,820,470 $3,663,365 78.1% 2008 $2.4845 $184,285,792 $4,578,581 25.0% 2009 $2.5458 $238,585,473 $6,073,909 32.7% 2010 $2.5458 $182,732,902 $4,652,014 -23.4% 2011 $3.1000 $130,481,113 $4,044,915 -13.1% 2012 $3.1000 $116,410,785 $3,608,734 -10.8% 2013 $3.1000 $104,516,637 $3,240,016 -10.2% Statutory 2014 $3.2500 $119,542,203 $3,885,122 19.9% Limit 2015 $3.2500 $115,447,669 $3,752,049 -3.4% 25 Source: Arizona Tax Research Association; Maricopa County Assessor
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