El Nio Past, present and future perspectives M Jarraud - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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El Nio Past, present and future perspectives M Jarraud - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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El Nio Past, present and future perspectives M Jarraud Secretary-General Emeritus World Meteorological Organization Rome, 17 March 2016 www.wmo.int El Nio: Much ado El Nio (1997) about something Largest component of internal

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El Niño Past, present and future perspectives

M Jarraud Secretary-General Emeritus World Meteorological Organization

www.wmo.int

Rome, 17 March 2016

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El Niño (1997) La Niña (1988)

  • Largest component of

internal climate variability

  • Global impacts
  • Major actor in human

history

  • Significant progress in

understanding and prediction, but…

  • Important remaining

questions!

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El Niño: Much ado about something

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El Niño: a brief history of time

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  • Fishing off the coast of Peru
  • Observed for many centuries

with failures of fish catch

  • Often near Christmas
  • El Niño
  • At the same time…
  • Droughts in China and Africa
  • Failure of monsoon in India
  • As a result, tens of millions

died from famine

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El Niño and Southern Oscillation: ENSO

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  • El Niño: Ocean component of ENSO
  • Southern Oscillation: atmospheric

component of ENSO

  • Connection discovered

in 1960s-1970s

  • Intensive observation

campaigns and research (1980s-1990s)

  • significantly improved predictive skill (1990s-2000s)
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ENSO: Current state of knowledge

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Equator 120°E 60°W

Increased convection

Thermocline

El Niño

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ENSO: Current state of knowledge

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Strong convection

La Niña

Cold upwelling

Equator 120°E 60°W Thermocline

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Zimbabwe Chennai-India Indonesia Peru

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El Niño: Impacts

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December-February

Wet Dry and warm Dry and warm Warm Warm Warm Warm Warm Wet Wet Wet Wet and warm Wet and cold Dry Dry

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EL Niño: Impacts

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June-August

Dry Dry Dry and cold Wet Wet Warm Warm Dry and warm

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ENSO: Impacts

10 Warm and wet More hurricanes Fewer hurricanes

  • Also:
  • Global temperature
  • Sea level
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Global surface temperature anomalies 1950-2015

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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ENSO: Impacts

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  • Can affect tens of million people
  • Increased frequency of extreme events (droughts,

floods, fires…)

  • Food security (severe reduction or even total loss of

harvest, need to slaughter cattle…)

  • Health (diseases transmitted by insects, or linked to

quality of water or air pollution…)

  • Energy production (in particular hydro power)
  • Environment (coral bleaching…)
  • Economic losses attributed to 1997-98 El Niño: 30 to 100

billions $. Direct setback to sustainable development

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Weather-to-climate: seamless framework

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Adapted from NOAA 2011

Forecast uncertainty

Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Weeks Months Seasons Years Decades Centuries

Weather forecasting Climate predictions Climate scenarios and projections

Forecast lead time Socioeconomic benefits

Warnings and alert coordination Watches Scenarios Outlooks Guidance Threat assessment Forecasts

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Skill of SST Forecast for J F M

from North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

CorrelaEon (x10) HIGH SKILL LOW SKILL MEDIUM SKILL

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ENSO predictions

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Regional climate outlooks and climate services

Food Security Outlook for Horn of Africa based on seasonal forecast

Projected food security outcomes, October to December 2015 Consensus Climate Outlook for September to December 2015

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Probabilistic El Niño forecast – 11 February 2016

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The future

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  • Further investments in observation and research

(including social sciences)

  • Capacity development
  • Climate change and ENSO
  • Further development of climate services (GFCS), in

close cooperation with all relevant partners and

  • stakeholders. Need for stronger 2 ways communication
  • Need for strengthened regional cooperation
  • Need for more systematic socio economic impact

studies

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Stakeholder engagement

  • Effective engagement of

various stakeholders essential to the implementation of GFCS

  • Definition of principles

allowing future designation of activities implemented by various stakeholders as contributing to GFCS

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Weather • Climate • Water

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GFCS is a partnership

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However…

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Mummy, it’s El Niño

  • ENSO is a normal part
  • f climate system
  • Not every weather or

climate anomaly can be attributed to El Niño

  • Link with climate

change still unclear

  • Forecasting ENSO

different from forecasting its impacts

(after M Glantz – 2000)

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Weather • Climate • Water 22

Thank you

www.wmo.int

спасибо اركش 谢谢 Gracias Merci Thank you

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Current ENSO

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ENSO: Current state of knowledge

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  • Precise definition difficult
  • Every 2 to 10 years
  • No two ENSO are identical
  • Significant historical

variability (over last 10 to 20 000 years), derived from:

  • Pollens, corals,

sediments, tree rings, …

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From observations to prediction

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Space-based component of the Global Observing System

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From observations to prediction

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Over 3600 ARGO floats

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Made March 1997 Made June 1997 Made September 1997

Forecasts of the 1997-98 El Niño

From the Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin (COLA)

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Global surface temperature anomalies 1880-2015

  • ver 5 and 10 years

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1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

5-year anomaly

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

10-year anomaly