Beyond FY 2011 Real E state Cycles in Alexandria Alexandria's Average Home Value as a Multiple of Average Per Capita Personal Income 9.00 8.41 (2006) 8.00 7.00 5.80 (1991) 5.61 (1978) 6.00 6.38 (2010) 5.00 4.00 4.41 (1986) 4.15 (1999) 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $100 $83.2 Millions $50 $0 ($50) ($81.0) ($100) ($150) $(216.6) ($200) ($250) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Low Grow th Medium Grow th High Grow th City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 Assumes Reduced Market Rate Adjustment from 2% to 0% for FY 2012 and Beyond Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $20 Millions $14.5 $0 ($20) ($40) ($60) Current Mid-Range ($81.0) ($80) ($100) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Mid-range projection Variable City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 Assumes School E nrollment Growth at 0% Annually (Mid-range currently at 3.7%) Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $10 Millions $0 ($10) ($20) ($30) ($40) ($50) ($44.2) ($60) Current Mid-Range ($70) ($81.0) ($80) ($90) ($100) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Mid-range projection Variable City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 Increases to Non-Real E state Taxes (+1% point on most tax rates) Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $10 Millions $0 ($10) ($20) ($30) ($40) ($50) ($60) ($67.7) ($70) ($80) Current Mid-Range ($90) ($81.0) ($100) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Mid-range projection Variable City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 Real E stateTax Rate to 95.3 cents in all years (up 5.0 cents per $100 from 90.3 cents) Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $10 Millions $0 ($10) ($20) ($30) ($40) ($50) ($58.9) ($60) Current Mid-Range ($70) ($81.0) ($80) ($90) ($100) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Mid-range projection Variable City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 All changes described above Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $100 Millions $83.0 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 ($20) ($40) Current Mid-Range ($60) ($81.0) ($80) ($100) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Mid-range projection Variable City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
Beyond FY 2011 Required Change to Real E state Assessments Projection to Balance Budget Budget Balance Projection FY10-FY20 $10 Millions ($1.0) Midrange RE Growth $0 RE Growth for Balance Tax Rate ($10) ($20) CY 10 -8.1% -1.5% 0.903 ($30) CY 11 -5.0% 1.5% 0.903 ($40) CY 12 0.0% 6.6% 0.903 ($50) CY 13 3.0% 7.6% 0.903 ($60) Current Mid-Range CY 14 5.3% 7.2% 0.903 ($70) ($81.0) CY 15 - CY 20 6.0% 4.5% 0.903 ($80) ($90) ($100) FY FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 2010 Mid-range projection Variable City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat
FY 2011 Current Services General Fund Operating Budget • Current Services Summary • Schools Transfer • Transit Subsidies & CIP • City Operations
FY 2011 Current Services General Fund Operating Budget Summary GENERAL FUND FY 2010 FY 2011 EXPENDITURES Approved Current $ % (in millions of $) Budget Services Chg Chg City Operations 307.6 314.3 6.7 2.2 CIP-related Expenditures Cash Capital 4.4 4.0 -0.4 -9.1 Debt Service 37.4 38.4 1.0 2.7 Transit Subsidies 16.0 17.3 1.3 7.9 Total City Managed Funds 365.4 374.0 8.6 2.4 Schools Transfer 164.6 178.8 14.2 8.6 Total General Fund 530.0 552.8 22.8 4.3 City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 2
Current Services Adjustments • Schools transfer ($14.2 million increase) – To be discussed by Schools staff separately – Reduced State sales tax and ARRA revenues – Increased enrollment – Employee benefit costs – January 1, 2010 merit pay City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 3
Current Services Adjustments • Transit subsidies ($1.3 million increase) – DASH and WMATA increase 9.1% – VRE increases 5% • CIP ($0.6 million increase) – Debt service increase of $1.0 million – Cash capital reduction of $0.4 million City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 4
Current Services Adjustments • City operations (net $6.7 million increase) – Cost savings of $1.5 million – Cost increases of $8.2 million • City operating cost savings ($1.5 million) – Turnover savings ($1.1 million) – Comprehensive Services Act cost containment ($0.3 million) – One-time reductions from FY 2010 ($0.1 million) City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 5
Current Services Adjustments • City operating cost increases ($8.2 million) – Personnel increases of $6.2 million – Non-personnel increases of $2.0 million • Personnel ($6.2 million) – Merit/step for City employees ($2.8 million) – 2% retirement increase ($1.7 million) – Vacancy savings adjustment ($1.1 million) – 5% health insurance increase ($0.4 million) – OPEB costs ($0.2 million) City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 6
Current Services Adjustments • Non-Personnel ($2.0 million) – Vehicle replacement costs ($0.7 million) – Leased property costs ($0.4 million) – IT maintenance ($0.4 million) – Supplies and equipment ($0.2 million) – Fees for professional services ($0.2 million) – Hazardous household waste disposal ($0.1 million) • No increase assumed for inflation or utilities City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 7
FY 2011 Current Services General Fund Operating Budget Summary GENERAL FUND FY 2010 FY 2011 EXPENDITURES Approved Current $ % (in millions of $) Budget Services Chg Chg City Operations 307.6 314.3 6.7 2.2 CIP-related Expenditures Cash Capital 4.4 4.0 -0.4 -9.1 Debt Service 37.4 38.4 1.0 2.7 Transit Subsidies 16.0 17.3 1.3 7.9 Total City Managed Funds 365.4 374.0 8.6 2.4 Schools Transfer 164.6 178.8 14.2 8.6 Total General Fund 530.0 552.8 22.8 4.3 City of Alexandria City of Alexandria FY 2011 Council Retreat 8
Planning for the Future Planning for the Future Alexandria City Public Schools Alexandria City Public Schools City Council Budget Retreat City Council Budget Retreat Nov. 7, 2009 Nov. 7, 2009
Alexandria City Public Schools Alexandria City Public Schools will provide the environment, will provide the environment, resources, and commitment resources, and commitment to ensure that each and every to ensure that each and every student succeeds — — student succeeds academically, emotionally, academically, emotionally, physically, and socially. physically, and socially.
Fast Facts Fast Facts Enrollment as of October 2009: 11,681 Enrollment as of October 2009: 11,681 Current Operating Budget: $197,546,081 Current Operating Budget: $197,546,081 Per Pupil Cost: $18,003 Per Pupil Cost: $18,003 Capital improvement budget (FY 2010- -2015): $64,751,921 2015): $64,751,921 Capital improvement budget (FY 2010 Student Demographics Student Demographics Black: 36.5% Black: 36.5% Hispanic: 27.2% Hispanic: 27.2% White: 24.5% White: 24.5% Asian Pacific: 6.2% Asian Pacific: 6.2% Native American: 1.4% Native American: 1.4% Unspecified: 4.2% Unspecified: 4.2% Countries of birth: 128 Countries of birth: 128 Native languages: 75 Native languages: 75 Eligible for free or reduced price meals: 53% Eligible for free or reduced price meals: 53% Receiving special education services: 15.1% Receiving special education services: 15.1% Students requiring English as a Second Language (ESL) services: 22.9% 22.9% Students requiring English as a Second Language (ESL) services:
Fast Facts Fast Facts Teachers: 1055 Teachers: 1055 Advanced degrees: 75.88% Advanced degrees: 75.88% Teacher starting salary: $43,115 Teacher starting salary: $43,115 Teacher average salary: $68,836 Teacher average salary: $68,836 National Board Certified: 28 National Board Certified: 28 Other licensed staff: 215 Other licensed staff: 215 Total Employees: 2089 Total Employees: 2089 The Graduating Class of 2009 The Graduating Class of 2009 675 Graduates: Graduates: 675 Students to post- -secondary education: 4 secondary education: 4- -year college year college - -58 %; 2 58 %; 2- -year college year college - - 32% 32% Students to post (26 ) and Honors Courses (10) AP Courses (26 ) and Honors Courses (10) AP Courses National Merit Scholarship semi- -finalists: finalists: 1 1 National Merit Scholarship semi National Achievement Scholarship semi- -finalists: finalists: 2 2 National Achievement Scholarship semi AP exams taken: 997 997 AP exams taken: AP scores of 3 or higher: 54 54 % % AP scores of 3 or higher: 484 ; Mean Math= 474 ; Mean Writing= 483 SAT scores: Mean Reading= SAT scores: Mean Reading= 484 ; Mean Math= 474 ; Mean Writing= 483
Good News! Good News! On- -time graduation rate increased time graduation rate increased On – Up 9% for students with disabilities Up 9% for students with disabilities – – Up 8% for economically disadvantaged Up 8% for economically disadvantaged – – Up 7% for Hispanic Up 7% for Hispanic – – Up 2% overall Up 2% overall – Drop- -out rate decreased out rate decreased Drop – Down 8% for students with disabilities Down 8% for students with disabilities – – Down 9% for homeless Down 9% for homeless – – Down 4% for economically disadvantaged Down 4% for economically disadvantaged – – Down 1% overall Down 1% overall –
Good News Good News AYP pass rates increased AYP pass rates increased – Reading increased 4% overall Reading increased 4% overall – – Math increased 3% overall Math increased 3% overall – – Even as required pass rate benchmark Even as required pass rate benchmark – increased by 4% increased by 4% AP scores increased AP scores increased – Percent scoring 3 or better highest ever since Percent scoring 3 or better highest ever since – ACPS required all AP students to take exams ACPS required all AP students to take exams
The City and Schools The City and Schools Working Together Working Together Shared Services Shared Services The City/School Shared Services Group The City/School Shared Services Group (CSSG) has been meeting to identify areas (CSSG) has been meeting to identify areas where the sharing of resources will result where the sharing of resources will result in increased savings or improved service. in increased savings or improved service. Long- -term results may not affect this term results may not affect this Long budget cycle. budget cycle.
The City and Schools The City and Schools Working Together Working Together Community Schools Community Schools (from the Coalition for Community Schools) (from the Coalition for Community Schools) – Integrated focus on academics, health and Integrated focus on academics, health and – social services, youth and community social services, youth and community development and community engagement development and community engagement leads to improved student learning, stronger leads to improved student learning, stronger families and healthier communities. families and healthier communities. – Schools become centers of the community Schools become centers of the community – and are open to everyone – – all day, every all day, every and are open to everyone day, evenings and weekends. day, evenings and weekends.
Hot Topic Updates Hot Topic Updates Residency Residency – We follow up on all non We follow up on all non- -resident reports resident reports – – Plans are to Plans are to “ “spot check spot check” ” some grade levels and to centralize some grade levels and to centralize – analysis of mass mailing returns analysis of mass mailing returns Bus Safety Bus Safety – We have reviewed and modified procedures We have reviewed and modified procedures – – Drivers have signed an Drivers have signed an “ “understanding of procedures understanding of procedures” ” letter letter – – Procedures in synch with neighboring school divisions Procedures in synch with neighboring school divisions – Fights at T.C. Williams Fights at T.C. Williams – Perception is worse than reality for school with 2800 students – Perception is worse than reality for school with 2800 students – Students are engaged in developing a strong culture to succeed Students are engaged in developing a strong culture to succeed –
Guiding Principles Guiding Principles Champion student achievement and instruction Champion student achievement and instruction Respond to enrollment increase and changing needs of Respond to enrollment increase and changing needs of students students Respect impact of economic downturn Respect impact of economic downturn Identify efficiencies (services/organization) Identify efficiencies (services/organization) Eliminate or modify programs or activities that do not Eliminate or modify programs or activities that do not help us reach our goals help us reach our goals Base determinations on research and data Base determinations on research and data Strive to place affected employees in other positions Strive to place affected employees in other positions
Alexandria City Public Schools Alexandria City Public Schools will provide the environment, will provide the environment, resources, and commitment resources, and commitment to ensure that each and every to ensure that each and every student succeeds – – student succeeds academically, emotionally, academically, emotionally, physically, and socially. physically, and socially.
Alexandria City Public Schools Department of Financial Services October 19, 2009 FISCAL FORECAST Operating Budget: Fiscal Years 2011 - 2015 1
AGENDA • The context • Demonstration of the – Population and enrollment forecast model – Capacity • Sample cases – Budget trends – Compensation and benefits • Methodology and revenue assumptions 2
Strategic Plan VISION VISION Set the international standard for educational excellence, where all students achieve their potential and actively contribute to our local and global communities. MISSION MISSION Provide the environment, resources, and commitment to ensure that each and every student succeeds — academically, emotionally, physically, and socially. GOALS GOALS Equity and Excellence: Every student prepared for college, work, and life. Each student, with support for their unique circumstances, will graduate from high school with the knowledge and skills necessary for higher education, multiple career paths and active citizenship. 3
City of City of Al Alexandria: exandria: Population forecast to Population forecast to reach approx. reach approx. 170,000 170,000 by 2030 by 2030 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 4 Sources: City of Alexandria Planning Department, US Census Bureau & MWCOG Cooperative Forecasts
DC Region Population Change • None of the Washington DC region’s population gain over the past 22 years can be attributed to domestic migration. • Over the past two decades, nearly all of the population growth in the Washington DC region was due to international immigration and the higher fertility rates of the foreign-born population . • Households that move into the Washington DC region from other parts of the U.S. tend to be smaller and have lower incomes than households moving out. • People moving into the region tend to be younger, and therefore have smaller household sizes and lower incomes. Out-migrants are more likely to be families and have higher incomes. Source: Center for Regional Analysis, George Mason University School of Public Policy
Population change by age group (1980 – 2020) 14,000 12,000 2020 10,000 2020 2000 8,000 1980 2000 6,000 2020 1980 1980 2020 1980 2000 2000 4,000 2,000 0 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 6 Source: US Census Bureau and Virginia Employment Commission
ACPS Enrollment ACPS Enrollment is Increasing is Increasing ACPS Enrollment Trends: Actual and Preliminary Projections 13,800 FY07 to FY10 13,300 up 13.1% 12,800 Number of Students 12,300 FY09 to FY10 up 4.1% 11,800 11,681 11,345 11,274 11,239 11,300 11,225 11,203 10,995 10,921 10,800 FY 11 to FY15 10,521 FY 11 to FY15 10,557 10,300 10,332 up 13.9% up 13.9% 9,800 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Proj Proj Proj Proj Proj Fiscal Year Actual Projected 7
Economic Constraints • Revenue outlook for • Macro-Economic outlook - Cities - GDP - Counties - Unemployment - Other school divisions - Consumer confidence index - Other states - CPI and Inflation (CPI-Education component) - Budget shortfall • Other factors • Real estate outlook - Income distribution - Residential properties - At risk factors - Commercial properties - Etc. 8
9 Constraints Economic
Strategic Efforts to contain expenditure grow th I nc r nc re a s e a se i e in O n Ope r pe ra t a t ing ng Fund E Fund E x pe ndi x pe ndit ur ure s e s FY FY 2 0 0 4 A 2 0 0 4 Ac t c t ua l ua l t t o FY o FY 2 0 1 0 B 2 0 1 0 Budge t udge t e d e d 15.0% 12.7% 11.6% 10.6% 10.0% 7.5% 7.5% 6.7% 4.8% 5.0% 2.1% -0.1% 0.0% FY05 Actual FY06 Actual FY07 Actual FY08 Actual FY09 Actual FY10 -0.7% -1.5% -5.0% -7.3% -10.0% Operating Fund Annual Increase Per Student Annual Increase 10
Where does the money come from? ACPS Revenue Sources Ope r pe ra t a ting Fund ng Fund Re ve nue Sour nue Sourc e s FY c e s FY 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 State Funds 13.7% Beginning Balance 2.2% Local Funds 0.8% Federal Funds City 0.0% Appropriation 83.3% 11
Methodology • Used historical trends • Grouped expenditures (adjusted) for other into several non-personnel items categories and benefits rates • Fully budgeted for all • Collaborated w ith items needed City, state and other (completeness rule) stakeholders • Identified other • Forecasted revenues mandatory increases based on City and • Used data-driven state projections, allocations adjusted for economic outlook 12
Revenue Assumptions: FY2011 compared to FY2010 • City appropriation: -2% to +2% change • State sales tax: 5% decrease • State basic aid is enrollment-driven • ARRA funding: SFSF (State Fiscal Stabilization Fund) may no longer be available • Beginning fund balance: an increase of $1.2 million compared to beginning balance for FY 2010 budget (see FY2009 year-end fund balance report) 13
5-Year Revenue Assumptions City Appropriation City Appropriation State sales tax revenue State sales tax revenue Sales tax accounts for City appropriation accounts about 4.7% of ACPS for about 83% of ACPS operating revenue operating revenue FY 11 -5.0% FY 11 2.0% FY 12 -1.0% FY 12 2.5% FY 13 +1.0% FY 13 3.0% FY 14 +1.5% FY 14 3.5% FY 15 +1.5% FY 15 4.0% State basic aid revenue (9% of ACPS operating revenue) State basic aid revenue (9% of ACPS operating revenue) Change is based on enrollment. No modifications to state legislature approved funding formulas are assumed. 14
Expenditure Assumptions (Preliminary subject to change) • Student grow th: based on • Strategic plan implementation preliminary budget projections. might require reallocation or The key variable here is redirection of resources “absorptive capacity”, the number of students w ho can be • ARRA (SFSF) expenditures absorbed w ith existing staffing. expected to come off of ARRA funding and returned to the The preliminary forecast assumes operating fund in FY 2012 20% absorption rate. • 17.91% 17.91% VRS co VRS contrib ntributio tion rate, rate, • Modified zero-based budgeting compar compared to 13.81% in FY ed to 13.81% in FY 2010 2010 • Data-driven resource allocations • ACPS supplemental retirement: 2.70% compared to 2.25% in FY 2.70% • Step: the preliminary forecast 2010 includes the cost of step. • Student-teacher ratio: staff is • 13% 13% annual annual healt health insurance h insurance review ing best use of capacity increase based on the history of increase based on the history of and w ill report results to the paid claims. paid claims. Board in November 15
5-Year Projected Budget Gap Impact on five-year budget forecast FY FY 2011 - 2011 - FY FY 2015 For 015 Forecas ecast 265,000,000 255,000,000 245,000,000 235,000,000 225,000,000 215,000,000 205,000,000 195,000,000 185,000,000 175,000,000 FY 10 FY11 Forecast FY12 Forecast FY13 Forecast FY14 Forecast FY15 Forecast 16 Revenue Expenditures: Case 1
17 Demonstration The forecast model
Forecasted Funding Gap Funding Gap Based on a 2% Increase to the City Appropriation FY11 Forecast FY12 Forecast FY13 Forecast FY14 Forecast FY15 Forecast Funding Gap (10,925,306) (7,002,581) (4,334,358) (3,834,360) (3,190,495) 18
Impact on Cost per Student Impact of Five Year Forecast on Cost per Student Assumes 2% Increase in City Appropriation in FY 201 1 $20,000 $1 8,000 $1 6,000 $1 4,000 FY09 FY1 0 FY1 1 19
Other Cost Variables • $11 million gap represents almost 100% of the total budget for utilities, leases, educational supplies, and textbooks • $11 million gap equals also to 77% of the employer’s share of health care benefit • $11 million is also the equivalent of: – 254 FTE’s on Support Scale (35% of all support employees) or – 116 FTE’s on Teacher Scale (9% of all teachers) or – 76 FTE’s on Administrator Scale (79% of all administrators) 20
Other Revenue Variables • Value of one-cent on the real property tax rate: approx. $3.0 million • 1% change in City appropriation: $1.6 million • 1% change in state sales tax: approx. $0.1 million • 1% change in state aid: approx. $0.17 million. 21
Summary Our Challenges • Closing the “A B C Gap” – Achievement – Budget – Capacity • Educating More students • Greater pressure on school facilities due to population grow th • Revenue constraints and uncertain economic environment • Expenditure: cost drivers and cost structure 22
ACPS Commitment Our Commitment • To meet the division goal of higher achievement for each and every student • To attract and retain the best and highest performing employees • To think creatively about how to reach our goals • To be careful stew ards of the public funds • To w ork collaboratively w ith the City, Board, staff, state, and all other organizations and stakeholders. 23
Next Steps? • November 1, Sunday: School Board retreat • November 3, Tuesday: CIP long-range plan • November 7, Saturday: City budget retreat 24
25 Your Questions ?
ACPS Forecast: Five Scenarios for FY 2011 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Remaining funding (gap)/surplus (17,509,093) (15,863,146) (14,217,199) (12,571,253) (10,925,306) (Gap)/surplus as percent of prior year -8.86% -8.03% -7.20% -6.36% -5.53% Annual expenditure change including 7.94% 7.94% 7.94% 7.94% 7.94% stimulus funds Balancing reduction as % of city revenue -10.85% -9.74% -8.64% -7.56% -6.51% Forecasting Assumption Details Item Element Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 1 Maintain 2010 half-year step? Y $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 2 MRA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $ impact (salaries only) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 3 Step Full Year 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% $ impact (salaries only) $ 2,983,661 $ 2,983,661 $ 2,983,661 $ 2,983,661 $ 2,983,661 4 New Lapse Savings Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% Change in Lapse Savings $ (265,345) $ (265,345) $ (265,345) $ (265,345) $ (265,345) 5 Benefits Cost Increase 16.20% 16.20% 16.20% 16.20% 16.20% Benefits cost increase $ impact $ 7,645,941 $ 7,645,941 $ 7,645,941 $ 7,645,941 $ 7,645,941 6 Enrollment growth 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 7 Absorption 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% New students 432 432 432 432 432 Homeroom FTE teachers 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 29.00 Special education, ELL, art, music, PE 14.11 14.11 14.11 14.11 14.11 $ impact (salaries and benefits) $ 3,375,176 $ 3,375,176 $ 3,375,176 $ 3,375,176 $ 3,375,176 Other operating expenditures 8 Outside services 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% $ impact $ 50,117 $ 50,117 $ 50,117 $ 50,117 $ 50,117 9 Cost of contracted transportation 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% $ impact $ 91,629 $ 91,629 $ 91,629 $ 91,629 $ 91,629 10 Other 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% $ impact $ 255,520 $ 255,520 $ 255,520 $ 255,520 $ 255,520 11 Utilities 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $ impact $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 12 Fuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $ impact $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 13 New expenditures $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 14 ARRA funded-projects returned to operating 2010 City appropriation 15 City Appropriation Change -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 16 State Sales Tax Rate of Change -5.00% -5.00% -5.00% -5.00% -5.00% $ impact $ (461,135) $ (461,135) $ (461,135) $ (461,135) $ (461,135) Sales tax estimate $ 8,761,565 $ 8,761,565 $ 8,761,565 $ 8,761,565 $ 8,761,565 ***revised October 19, 2009 26
ACPS 5-year forecast: Results FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Remaining funding (gap)/surplus (10,925,306) (7,002,581) (4,334,358) (3,834,360) (3,190,495) (Gap)/surplus as percent of prior year -5.53% -3.28% -1.94% -1.64% -1.30% Annual expenditure change including 7.94% 4.91% 4.59% 4.65% 4.66% stimulus funds Balancing reduction as % of city revenue -6.51% -4.07% -2.45% -2.09% -1.67% Forecasting Assumption Details (figures in blue may be modified)*** FY12 FY13 FY14 FY11 Forecast Forecast FY15 Forecast Forecast Forecast Item Element 1 Maintain 2010 half-year step? Y $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 $ 1,848,047 2 MRA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $ impact (salaries only) $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 3 Step Full Year 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% $ impact (salaries only) $ 2,983,661 $ 3,099,524 $ 3,180,112 $ 3,262,795 $ 3,347,628 4 New Lapse Savings Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% Change in Lapse Savings $ (265,345) $ (381,454) $ (500,972) $ (625,159) $ (753,068) 5 Benefits Cost Increase 16.20% 5.39% 5.17% 5.31% 5.47% Benefits cost increase $ impact $ 7,645,941 $ 3,001,672 $ 3,084,057 $ 3,384,424 $ 3,721,267 6 Enrollment growth 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 7 Absorption 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% New students 432 448 465 482 500 Homeroom FTE teachers 29.00 30.00 31.00 33.00 34.00 Special education, ELL, art, music, PE 14.11 14.63 15.13 15.66 16.34 $ impact (salaries and benefits) $ 3,375,176 $ 3,494,218 $ 3,611,152 $ 3,809,072 $ 3,941,020 Other operating expenditures 8 Outside services 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% $ impact $ 50,117 $ 50,468 $ 50,821 $ 51,177 $ 51,535 9 Cost of contracted transportation 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% $ impact $ 91,629 $ 100,792 $ 110,871 $ 121,958 $ 134,154 10 Other 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% $ impact $ 255,520 $ 259,794 $ 264,140 $ 268,559 $ 273,052 11 Utilities 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $ impact $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 12 Fuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% $ impact $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 13 New expenditures $ - $ - $ - $ - 14 ARRA funded-projects returned to operating $ 546,736 2010 City appropriation 15 City Appropriation Change 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 16 State Sales Tax Rate of Change -5.00% -1.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.50% $ impact $ (461,135) $ (87,616) $ 86,739 $ 131,410 $ 133,381 Sales tax estimate $ 8,761,565 $ 8,673,949 $ 8,760,689 $ 8,892,099 $ 9,025,481 Revised October 19, 2009 27
Investing in our Students: An Overview of CIP Needs FY 2011- FY 2016 Alexandria City Public Schools City Council Retreat November 7, 2009 November 7, 2009 1
The ACPS Strategic Plan MISSION Provide the environment, resources, and commitment to ensure that each and every student succeeds — academically, emotionally, physically, and socially. Goal 5 Provide clean, safe and conducive learning environments that utilize best practices for energy efficiency and environmental sustainability. November 7, 2009 2
Agenda CIP budget drivers EMG facility needs assessment and results Other CIP needs Current and future planning activities November 7, 2009 3
CIP Budget Drivers Enrollment, programs, City requirements and capacity ADA compliance Building and site requirements maintenance and Systems upgrades for repair energy savings Major equipment Safety and asset replacement and preservation upgrades additional purchases November 7, 2009 4
Maintenance Needs: ACPS Facility Assessment Completed in April, 2009 by EMG Corporation Reviewed building architectural, structural, mechanical, and electrical systems, as well as the site, interior finishes, and accessibility. Developed detailed building system replacement costs, for a 20-year period, to maintain operation of existing buildings November 7, 2009 5
EMG Recommended Investments: By Year Required Required Year Maintenance Year Maintenance Expenditures Expenditures 2011 $ 6,445,499 2021 $ 4,736,059 2012 23,583,726 2022 13,075,448 2013 8,186,855 2023 9,646,927 2014 4,749,537 2024 2,221,466 2015 6,403,482 2025 4,252,493 2016 2,557,619 2026 3,439,367 2017 12,660,860 2027 23,230,798 2018 8,020,573 2028 4,395,678 2019 7,852,282 2029 1,795,775 2020 8,566,139 Total, All Years $155,820,583 November 7, 2009 6
EMG Recommended Investments: By School Required School Maintenance Expenditure Charles Barrett Elementary School $ 5,196,375 Cora Kelly Elemetary School 5,560,660 Douglas MacArthur Elementary School 4,608,007 George Mason Elementary School 4,588,133 James K. Polk Elementary School 5,110,648 Jefferson-Houston Elementary School 10,946,452 John Adams Elementary School 9,434,768 Lyles-Crouch Traditional Academy 4,170,329 Matthew Maury Elementary School 3,101,702 Mount Vernon Community School 8,879,187 Patrick Henry Elementary School 6,066,438 Samuel W. Tucker Elementary School 5,573,599 William Ramsay Elementary School 6,958,218 Francis C. Hammond Middle School 14,259,599 George Washington Middle School 15,920,149 Minnie Howard Campus/TCW 11,217,872 T.C. Williams Secondary School 31,959,549 Rowing Facility 698,631 School Maintenance and Transport Facility 1,570,267 Total, All Years $ 155,820,583 November 7, 2009 7
Building Replacement Recommendations: Worst Case – No Maintenance Done This scenario Replacement Replacement School Name Cost Year assumes that none of the Jefferson-Houston Elementary School $ 13,299,720 2012 recommended Patrick Henry Elementary School 12,168,000 2019 School Maintenance and Transport Facility 3,380,500 2019 maintenance has George Mason Elementary School 9,932,325 2020 been done. Cora Kelly Elemetary School 13,455,000 2022 Minnie Howard Campus/TCW 25,434,825 2023 Replacement Charles Barrett Elementary School 12,238,200 2025 occurs when William Ramsay Elementary School 17,091,800 2025 John Adams Elementary School 26,783,250 2027 deferred Mount Vernon Community School 21,982,350 2027 maintenance Douglas MacArthur Elementary School 12,308,400 2028 Samuel W. Tucker Elementary School 15,635,100 2029 equals 35% of the replacement cost Total Replacement Cost $ 183,709,470 of the building. November 7, 2009 8
Capacity Needs Classroom capacity Capacity impact on projects to meet short term transportation: additional needs. Current CIP and replacement buses. reflects $2.0 million in FY Not funded in FY 2010 or 2011. FY 2011 CIP. Currently 19 of the 98 buses are 12 Capacity projects to meet years old or greater. By medium term needs: two 2011 29 of the 98 buses new elementary schools. will be 12 years old or Not included in FY 2010- greater. 2015 CIP November 7, 2009 9
Capacity Needs, cont. Furniture, fixtures, and Each additional equipment: capacity- classroom costs driven additional $18,000 to equip purchases and ACPS has added replacement needs. about 25 elementary FY 2011 funding at classrooms each year $95,000 for the past two years November 7, 2009 10
City Requirements and ADA Needs Schools emergency Elevator and other shelters must meet access projects: $3.6 OCR requirements. million, of which $3.3 Estimated cost of $1.1 million was in the FY million not currently in 2010-2015 CIP CIP November 7, 2009 11
Energy Conservation, Safety, and Preservation of Assets Energy conservation Modern fire alarm and projects to reduce sprinkler systems, operating costs and which would provide be better stewards faster response times of the environment: and diminish fire $3.3 million in the damage to the facility: FY 2010-2015 CIP $10.8 million in the FY 2010-2015 CIP November 7, 2009 12
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