ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE IN OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE IN OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE IN OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT ANNUKKA LEHIKOINEN RIIKKA VENESJRVI RESEARCH GROUP OF FISHERIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT CONTENT Part 1: Assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk: Combining

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ANNUKKA LEHIKOINEN RIIKKA VENESJÄRVI RESEARCH GROUP OF FISHERIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE IN OIL SPILL RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT

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CONTENT

Part 1: Assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk: Combining Bayesian networks and spatial data on ecological values Part 2: Operational use of the ecological knowledge: Conservation prioritization during oil spill response

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Combining Bayesian networks and spatial data on ecological values

PART 1: ASSESSING THE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ECOLOGICAL RISK

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BAYESIAN NETWORKS IN BRIEF

  • Artificial intelligence tools that integrate knowledge, logic, and

rules, providing aid for thinking complex systems.

  • BN integrates our prevailing knowledge about the single

dependencies and related uncertainties into a learning system.

  • Can also be seen as a scenario synthesis, where the

alternative scenarios are weighted following to their realization probability.

  • Modular nature: any two models having at least one identical

node can be connected. -> Allows long term development of learning platforms.

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Jolma et al. 2014

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COMPONENTS OF THE SOFTWARE

  • 1. Condensed version of Lehikoinen et al.

(2013 and 2015) BN models

  • Site-specific estimates on the accident

probabilities and parameters

  • 2. SpillMod drifting simulations for 180 spill

scenarios, using the weather data of 6 different years -> 1080 simulations in tot.

  • Probability that a grid cell is oiled 10 days

after the accident

  • 3. OILECO database (Kokkonen et al.

2010; Ihaksi et al. 2011) for mapping of nature values to support prioritization of coastal oil spill response

  • Conservation value for the threatened

species occurring in a grid cell

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THE ECOLOGICAL VALUATION

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after Ihaksi et al. 2011

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EXAMPLE RESULTS

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  • In C3, P(oil accident) is 2 – 3

times the one in C4

  • Acknowledging the potential

harm to the known occurrences

  • f threatened species, accident

in C4 would cause a seven-fold ecological risk in comparison to C3

Figures: Jolma et al. 2014

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Helle et al. 2016

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COMPONENTS OF THE SOFTWARE

  • Bayesian network describing oil spills + probability maps

describing oil drifting + site information and conservation value of threatened species and habitats

= Spatial risk estimates for species and habitats sensitive to oil

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Figures: SYKE, OILRISK, I. Helle

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Helle et al. 2016

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Helle et al. 2016

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Conservation prioritization during oil spill response

PART 2: OPERATIONAL USE OF THE ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE

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OILECO Map application:

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Ihaksi et al. 2011

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Ihaksi et al. 2011

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OILRISK MAP APPLICATION

  • Prioritization of nature values

revised

  • Species database updated
  • Including habitats
  • Selection of suitable method
  • Shoreline response
  • Shoreline cleaning
  • Advisory tool
  • Oil spills
  • Exercises

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OILRISK CONSERVATION PRIORITIZATION SCHEME

  • Populations and habitats 5 years

after an oil spill

  • On the basis of
  • Oil-induced loss
  • Recovery potential

‒ Recolonization and reproduction cabapilities for species

  • Conservation value
  • Protection efficiency

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Value Loss

Loss, no protection

Recovery Recovery Pre-spill Oil spill, t=0 t=5 Size/area (0) Size/area (1) t=5 OILRISK index =

  • pop. size / hab. area, protected –
  • pop. size / hab. area, not protected

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OILRISK MAP APPLICATION

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TAKE-HOME MESSAGE

  • Definition of loss may greatly affect the results of the risk assessments
  • P(accident) vs. P(spill) vs. P(oiling) vs. P(ecological loss)
  • Valuation of the ecological loss!
  • When threatened species and habitats are taken into account in the GoF,

clear regional differences in the risk levels can be found

  • For example, total ecological risk is higher in the western GoF although

eastern GoF is more accident prone

  • In case of an oil spill, to maximize the utility gained through the restricted

shoreline response or cleaning capacity, ecological understanding is needed.

  • To estimate the potential loss caused to the ecosystems, follow-up monitoring

is needed.

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Helle, I., A.Jolma and R. Venesjärvi. 2016. Species and habitats in danger: estimating the relative risk posed by oil spills in the northern Baltic Sea. Ecosphere 7(5) Ihaksi, T., Kokkonen, T., Helle, I., Jolma, A., Lecklin, T., Kuikka, S. 2011. Combining Conservation Value, Vulnerability, and Effectiveness of Mitigation Actions in Spatial Conservation Decisions: An Application to Coastal Oil Spill Combating. Environmental Management 47: 802–813. Jolma, A., Lehikoinen, A., Helle, I. & Venesjärvi, R. 2014. A software system for assessing the spatially distributed ecological risk posed by oil shipping. Environmental Modelling & Software 61: 1-11. Kokkonen, T., Ihaksi, T., Jolma, A., Kuikka, S. 2010. Dynamic mapping of nature values to support prioritization of coastal oil combating. Environmental Modelling & Software 25: 248–257. Lehikoinen, A., Luoma, E., Mäntyniemi, S. & Kuikka, S. 2013. Optimizing the Recovery Efficiency of Finnish Oil Combating Vessels in the Gulf of Finland Using Bayesian Networks. Environmental Science & Technology 47: 1792 – 1799. Lehikoinen, A., Hänninen, M., Storgård, J., Luoma, E., Mäntyniemi, S., Kuikka, S. 2015. A Bayesian network for assessing the collision induced risk of an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland. Environmental Science & Technology 49: 5301–5309. See also: Lecklin, T., Ryömä, R., Kuikka, S. 2011. A Bayesian network for analyzing biological acute and long-term impacts of an oil spill in the Gulf of Finland. Marine Pollution Bulletin 62: 2822–2835.

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REFERENCES

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FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT US!

ANNUKKA.LEHIKOINEN@HELSINKI.FI RIIKKA.VENESJARVI@HELSINKI.FI

THANK YOU!

Photo: Kotka Maritime Research Centre

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WELCOME!

ICES Working Group on Risks of Maritime Activities in the Baltic Sea (WGMABS) Warmly welcomes new and old members to participate its 3rd meeting in

Helsinki, November 6th – 10th

Interested? Contact the chair of the meeting: sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi

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