ebinar Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on physical activity and sport around the world 9 April 2020 0
Today’s speakers Asahi Takano Becky Fry Chris Scott Partner, Portas Consulting Insights Manager, Head of Corporate Communications Aktive Auckland London Sport Felicien Dillard Lee Huei Chern Peter Ahlström Partner, Portas Consulting Head of Strategic Communications & Insights, Chief of Staff, Sport Singapore Stockholm Sport 1
Today’s objectives Understand the impact of COVID-19 01 on sport and physical activity Explore some effective responses 02 from sport leaders Discuss potential long-term impact 03 and mitigation strategies 04 Share knowledge 2
Sport and physical activity bring widespread benefits ~2% reduction Social Healthcare Economy youth criminality for those physically active Stronger values Improved health and Happier and more ~$10 per person GDP Individual wellbeing productive workforce Empathy and resilience growth from increased educational attainment per Integration in active youth communities Healthier New jobs and Community communities, opportunities ~158 hrs of positive Improved upward mobility interaction annually per active person Reduced healthcare Cohesion between costs Stronger Society communities Reduced incidence of economy mental health issues 3
What is the expected impact of COVID-19 on sport and physical activity participation? How are sport leaders across the world ensuring citizens stay fit and active in the wake of COVID-19? 4
ACW is a data-driven initiative for decision-makers to get citizens more active DRIVERS OUTCOMES ECOSYSTEM PROFILE ECONOMIC Consumption Age Lifestyle Job Creation Gender Mindsets I ntensity F requency Ethnicity Environment Education HEALTH Socio-economic MONETARY Disease Incidence IMPACT PHYSICAL Productivity Gain $ ACTIVITY SPORT & ACTIVITY POLICY Improved Quality of Life Death Prevention Facilities Infrastructure SOCIAL Individual wellbeing Workforce Investment T ime T ype Social cohesion Events $ Social confidence Programmes Equity Campaigns What are the current trends? What works and what doesn’t? Why does it matter? Create a detailed physical Measure the impact of different Calculate value created by activity profile drivers of physical activity physical activity 5
The methodology provides actionable insights from in-depth data analytics Barriers, Physical motivations and activity levels opportunities and socio- for physical demographic activity trends Value Impact of generated by policy and physical interventions on activity physical activity 6
Governments have responded to COVID-19 a range of ways AS OF 06 APRIL 2 PARIS AUCKLAND SEOUL MILAN LONDON STOCKHOLM MADRID SINGAPORE TOKYO HIGH LOW Degree of restriction “FULL LOCKDOWN” “PARTIAL LOCKDOWN” “SOCIAL DISTANCING” Public Banned Banned Allowed gatherings Schools & Closed Closed Partially open universities Sporting All cancelled All cancelled Allowed events Sports Closed Closed Partially open facilities Leaving the Approval required Allowed for exercise Allowed house 7
COVID-19 is having a major impact on physical activity HIGH LOW Degree of restriction 38% 9% AS OF 22 MARCH % decline in step count verses 2019 25% 8% 25% 7% 8
Sports facilities have witnessed sharp drops in utilization after social distancing Actual vs. predicted attendance in gyms 4 Social distancing measures First case introduced PREDICTED ACTUAL Attendance - 50% - 70% Time 9
We modelled the impact of COVID-19 on three forms of physical activity… Exercise Active Transport Sport 1 2 3 Planned, structured and repetitive Getting to and from work places Team and individual sports activity Outdoor Exercise Team Sport Cycling Facility Exercise Individual Sport Walking Home Exercise 10
…and ran 2 generic scenarios HIGH LOW Degree of restriction Scenario 2: “SOCIAL DISTANCING” Scenario 1: “FULL LOCKDOWN” ▪ Outdoor prohibited ▪ Outdoor reduced by 10% Exercise ▪ All facility-based stopped ▪ Facility-based reduced by 10% ▪ At home continues ▪ At Home continues ▪ Team sport prohibited ▪ Team sport prohibited Sport ▪ Individual sport prohibited ▪ Individual sport reduced by 10% ▪ Prohibited ▪ Reduced by 10% Active Transport Activity continuing Activity reducing Activity prohibited 11
Impact on physical activity under the two scenarios HIGH LOW Degree of restriction FULL LOCKDOWN SOCIAL DISTANCING scenario scenario -15% 12
We used ACW to model the impact on a “typical city” 13
We used ACW to model the impact on a “typical city” City Profile Drivers 1M 50:50 Ethnically diverse population Gender split CITY PROFILE Physical activity profile ▪ New framework ½ ▪ Edit with outcomes behind monetary impact 65% 30% physically active active transport SPORT & PHYSICAL ACTIVITY ACTIVITY Sports & Activity Policy POLICY Typical provision of facilities, programmes and sporting events of a Western European major city 14
We used ACW to model the impact on a “typical city” Social Full Drivers Distancing Lockdown CITY PROFILE ▪ New framework ½ COVID-19 ▪ Edit with outcomes behind monetary impact impact 150k 450k SPORT & PHYSICAL ACTIVITY ACTIVITY FEWER ACTIVE FEWER ACTIVE INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUALS POLICY 15
A less active population will have significant short-term and long-term impact SHORT-TERM OUTCOMES Social impact ECONOMIC Physical Activity MONETARY $45M 13hrs 450k IMPACT HEALTH $ MONTHLY LOSS MONTHLY FEWER ACTIVE DECLINE in expenditure on INDIVIDUALS gym fees and leisure SOCIAL in positive social classes interaction 16
A less active population will have significant short-term and long-term impact Economic loss LONG-TERM OUTCOMES US$ • Participation consumption 165m • Workforce salaries ECONOMIC Increased health burden Physical Activity • Disease Incidence US$ MONETARY • Productivity Gain 450k IMPACT 100m • Improved Quality of Life HEALTH $ • Death Prevention FEWER ACTIVE INDIVIDUALS SOCIAL Negative social impact • Individual wellbeing US$ • Social cohesion 200k • Social confidence • Equity 17
This will disproportionately affect specific demographic groups – impact on young children MENTAL HEALTH BENEFITS WHEN ACTIVE 5 EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHEN ACTIVE HAPPINESS 5 TEAMWORK 6 Team sport participants are 9% happier 7.3x more likely to self report high levels LEADERSHIP 6 ANXIETY 5 6.7x more likely to self report high 25% decreased risk of anxiety levels DYSTHYMIA 5 CONFIDENCE 6 52% decreased risk of dysthymia 5.1x more likely to self report high levels 18 18
Sporting ecosystems are facing health and economic pressures which can be modelled using extensive financial analysis 2. Establish financial and welfare 4. Test how scenarios impact the health of each stakeholder industry and each stakeholder Financial modelling Optimisation modelling 1. Map the industry, money and 3. Quantify the challenge over the service flows next five years Behavioural Simulation modelling modelling 19
What is the expected impact of COVID-19 on sport and physical activity participation? How are sports leaders across the world ensuring citizens stay fit and active in the wake of COVID-19? 20
This crisis has led to innovative responses – ELITE SPORTS UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GAMES REPLACEMENT OF POSTPONED / CANCELLED EVENTS IN BEHIND CLOSED DOORS 7 ESPORTS FORMATS 8 FREE ACCESS TO ARCHIVE CONTENT 9 21
This crisis has led to innovative responses – MASS PARTICIPATION SUPPORT TO STAY ACTIVE DESPITE RESTRICTIONS 10 #STAYINWORKOUT GYMS LEASING FITNESS EQUIPMENT NEW TYPES OF ACTIVITIES WITH A PURPOSE 22
Becky Fry: Auckland is using digital campaigns to encourage activity Insights Manager Aktive – Auckland sport and recreation Aims #StayAktiveAKL campaign 11 Encourage physical activity Support mental wellbeing 1. Keeping active at home 2. Keeping active in my community Encourage upskilling in sport and recreation sector 3. Keeping active in my sport and recreational activity 23
Huei Chern: Sport Singapore responded with stakeholder support and innovation Head of Strategy Sport Singapore Initial social distancing guidelines “Circuit breaker” measures 12 Prior to the shutdown of facilities, stringent guidelines were put in place in all Sport SG facilities Support Providing training and work Maximum of 10 participants ▪ opportunities within the sector Build One person per 16 m 2 ▪ Building new delivery models, and knowledge, to become a future ready Increased space between ▪ industry equipment Renew ▪ Running/swimming lane Emerge as a stronger Sport Singapore, ready for the segregation changed landscape 24
Peter Ahlström: Stockholm is encouraging swapping the gym for outdoor exercise Chief of Staff Stockholm Sport Aims Actions Stockholm Gym 13 Inspire people to exercise outdoors Mitigate the drop in gym / indoor sports facility use 25
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