Earnings Presentation November 3, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Earnings Presentation November 3, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation November 3, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources, Public Service Company of New Mexicos (PNM), or Texas - New Mexico


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SLIDE 1

Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation

November 3, 2011

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SLIDE 2

Safe Harbor Statement

Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’, Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNM Resources’, PNM’s, and TNMP’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and

  • perating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-

looking statements. These factors include: The ability of PNM and TNMP to recover their costs and earn their allowed returns in their regulated jurisdictions; the ability of the Company to successfully forecast and manage its operating and capital expenditures, particularly in the context of a future test year rate case with respect to PNM; the performance of state, regional, and national economies and the resulting impacts on the electricity usage of the Company’s customers; the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (“PVNGS”), the San Juan Generating Station (“SJGS”), and the Four Corners Plant, transmission systems, and distribution systems, which could be negatively affected by major equipment failures, major weather disruptions, disruptions in fuel supply, cyber and physical security breaches, and other significant operational issues; state and federal regulation or legislation relating to climate change, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, coal combustion byproducts , nitrogen oxides, and other power plant emissions, including the risk that the Company may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental requirements, including possible future requirements to address regional haze regulations and related best available retrofit technology requirements and concerns about global climate change, and the resultant impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM has interests; uncertainties surrounding the mine fire incident at the mine supplying coal to SJGS, including potential impacts on the operations of SJGS, the costs of fuel, and the cap on the annual amounts recoverable through PNM's fuel and purchase power adjustment clause (“FPPAC”); state and federal regulatory, legislative, and judicial decisions and actions, including the outcomes of PNM’s pending transmission and firm requirements power rate cases and appeals of prior regulatory proceedings; uncertainty surrounding the status

  • f PNM’s participation in jointly-owned generation projects resulting from the scheduled expiration of the operational documents for the projects beginning in 2016 and

potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects; uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs of decommissioning power plants owned or partially owned by PNM and coal mines supplying certain PNM power plants, as well as the ability to recover decommissioning costs from customers; financial and operational risks at PVNGS relating to any increased regulatory review and actions in response to the events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan; the risk that recently enacted reliability standards regarding available transmission capacity may reduce certain PNM transmission rights used to transmit its generation resources and provide access to transmission customers resulting in a need to purchase additional transmission capacity, reduce sales of transmission capacity, or operate generation facilities less economically; the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns; the ability of PNM to successfully defend the utilization of a future test year in its electric rate filings with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (“NMPRC”), including PNM’s ability to withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors; the ability of PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the NMPRC, including the resource diversity requirement, within the specified cost parameters; the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its Emergency FPPAC will not be approved by the NMPRC; the risk that PNM may not be able to recover a portion of the increased costs of rights-

  • f-way renewals on Native American lands through rates charged to transmission customers; conditions affecting the Company’s ability to access the financial markets, including

disruptions in the credit markets and actions by ratings agencies affecting the Company’s credit ratings; the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries due to regulatory, statutory, or contractual restrictions; the impacts of decreases in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense; the impacts of the true-up of the purchase price for the sale of First Choice Power to the actual amounts of certain components of working capital at closing; uncertainties surrounding the successful completion of PNM Resources' tender offer to repurchase up to $50.0 million of its outstanding 9.25% senior unsecured notes, due in 2015; changes in the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas protocols; collections experience; fluctuations in interest rates; weather; water supply; changes in fuel costs; availability of fuel supplies; the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions; seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power; the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage; variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices; volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets; uncertainty regarding the ongoing validity of government programs for emission allowances; changes in the competitive environment in the electric industry; the outcome of legal proceedings; the extent of insurance coverage available for claims made in litigation; and changes in applicable accounting principles. Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, and ongoing EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm

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SLIDE 3

Opening Remarks & Overview

Pat Vincent-Collawn

President and CEO

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SLIDE 4

Third Quarter Financial Highlights

Q3 2011 Q3 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2010 Ongoing EPS $0.61 $0.63 $0.85 $0.90 GAAP EPS $0.48 $0.53 $0.70 $0.69

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  • Closed the sale of First Choice Power on Nov. 1
  • Exit from competitive businesses and return to

regulated utility model

  • Aligning utility costs with revenues
  • Regulatory relief and cost-cutting plans set the path for

PNM to earn its return on rate base by the end of 2012

  • TNMP on pace to achieve its allowed ROE in 2011

(1) On a fully diluted basis

(1) (1)

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SLIDE 5

Load Growth Continues Positive Trend

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PNM ∆(1) TNMP ∆(2) PNM ∆(1) TNMP ∆(2) Residential 0.2%

  • 0.1%

0.9% 2.1% Commercial

  • 2.0%

0.1%

  • 0.1%

0.2% Industrial 8.8% 8.1% 5.4% 0.5% Total Retail 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% Customer Growth 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% Q3 2011 vs Q3 2010 YTD 2011 vs YTD 2010

Regulated Retail Energy Sales Growth

(weather-normalized KWh)

(1) Excluding Economy Service customers (2) Excluding Transmission Service customers

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SLIDE 6

San Juan - BART Update

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  • EPA BART determination: SCR technology
  • Total estimated costs: $750M or more
  • PNM’s share of estimated costs (46%): minimum of $345M
  • PNM appealed EPA mandate, requesting stay
  • Petitioned EPA for reconsideration of state plan calling for SNCR

technology

  • N.M. Gov. Martinez and the N.M. Environmental Dept. are

challenging EPA’s decision in federal appeals court and are petitioning EPA for reconsideration

  • Evaluating timeline for regulatory recovery
  • Early design, construction total plant estimated costs in 2012: $44M
  • Total plant estimated costs in 2013: $246M
  • PNM to issue RFP for SCR installation by late 2011, early 2012
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SLIDE 7

Financial Overview

Chuck Eldred

Executive Vice President and CFO

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SLIDE 8

Q3 2011 Financial Summary

$0.63 $0.61 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 ($0.11) $0.01 Q3 2010 Q3 2011

Ongoing EPS

PNM First Choice Power Optim Energy (1) Other TNMP

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(1) Includes PNM Resources’ share of Optim Energy’s ongoing EPS through August 2011

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SLIDE 9

Regulated Businesses: Q3 2011 EPS (Ongoing)

PNM TNMP

$0.42 $0.45 Q3 2010 Q3 2011

Q3 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS Rate relief $0.07 Weather $0.03 Lower outage costs $0.01 PV3 toll expiration ($0.07) Other ($0.01) Q3 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS Rate relief $0.01 Weather $0.01

$0.08 $0.10 Q3 2010 Q3 2011

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SLIDE 10

First Choice Power Sale Update

  • First Choice Power Sale
  • Received $329M in cash which includes $59M working capital
  • Repurchased Series A convertible Preferred Stock
  • Finalized on Oct. 5
  • Purchased from Cascade for $73.5M, share price $15.38
  • Reduces EPS share count by 4.8 million shares beginning on Sept. 23
  • Tender offer to repurchase approximately $50M

9.25% SUNs

  • Premium is priced at 17%
  • Anticipated to close Nov 22
  • Common Stock Repurchase Options
  • Various alternatives being considered

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SLIDE 11

Credit Rating Agency Actions Moody’s

  • Upgraded PNMR and TNMP credit ratings one notch on Nov. 1, 2011 and

affirmed PNM rating on Sept. 23, 2011

S&P

  • Upgraded ratings one notch on Sept. 26, 2011 and placed all entities on

positive outlook

PNMR PNM TNMP Debt rating BB (1) BBB- (1) BBB (2) Outlook Positive Positive Positive PNMR PNM TNMP Debt rating Ba1(1) Baa3(1) A3(2) Outlook Stable Stable Stable

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(1) Senior unsecured (2) Senior secured

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SLIDE 12

Recent Financing Transactions

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  • Refinanced $50 million term loan
  • Reduced interest rate by approximately 1.5%

TNMP

  • Issued $160 million 10-year notes
  • 5.35% interest rate

PNM

  • Renewed credit facilities
  • Total capacity of $700 million

PNM and PNM Resources

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SLIDE 13

2011 Guidance (Ongoing)

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$1.00 Consolidated EPS(1) $1.05

Corp/Other ($0.17 - $0.15) Regulated $1.00 - $1.05 PNM $0.72 - $0.75 TNMP $0.28 - $0.30 Competitive $0.16 - $0.18

(1) Segments are not additive

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SLIDE 14

 Maintain profitability of First Choice Power by

achieving customer growth and increasing retention

 Conserve Optim Energy cash and position

generation assets to capitalize as market conditions improve

Key Strategic Goals and Checklist Earn Authorized Return on Our Regulated Businesses Return to Solid Investment Grade Credit Ratings at PNMR

 Achieve successful outcomes in:

  • PNM retail rate case
  • PNM FERC transmission rate case
  • TNMP AMS case

 Maintain strong electric reliability and power

plant availability

 Control O&M and capital costs

Maximize the Value of Our Competitive Businesses

 Become fully investment grade at:

  • PNM
  • TNMP

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 Achieved by monetizing

competitive entities and returning value to shareholders

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SLIDE 15

Questions & Answers

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SLIDE 16

Appendix

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SLIDE 17

PNM Plant EAF and Outages

86.8% 77.9% 98.1% 91.3% 85.0% 94.6%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Annual Top Quartile Numbers(1) Coal 91% Nuclear 93% Unit Duration Time Period San Juan

2 47 Q1 – Q2 2012 3 54 Q3 – Q4 2012

Four Corners

4 10 Q4 2011 5 13 Q1 2012

Palo Verde

1 45 Q4 2011 3 44 Q1 - Q2 2012 2 44 Q4 2012

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(1) Annual top quartile number from the North American

Electricity Reliability Council as of August 2011

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PNM Resources 5-Year Capital Plan(1) as of Q3 2011

$111 $111 $107 $101 $106 $74 $77 $71 $67 $68 $73 $59 $57 $63 $62 $88 $16 $14 $15 $16 $16 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

(In millions)

PNM Generation PNM T&D TNMP T&D PNM Renewables Other (Primarily IT)

$362 $261 $250 $248 $252

(1) Excludes BART capital expenditures

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Guidance (ongoing): First Choice Power & Optim Energy

(1) 100% of Optim Energy

(2) Actual results

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Prior Guidance First Choice Power (Jan – Dec 2011) Optim Energy (Jan – Dec 2011) Earnings (Loss) per Share $0.28 – $0.35 $(0.22)-$(0.19) EBITDA $43M-$53M $20M-$30M (1) Current Guidance First Choice Power (Jan – Oct 2011) Optim Energy (Jan – Aug 2011)(2) Earnings (Loss) per Share $0.22 – $0.24 $(0.06) EBITDA $34M-$37M $40.6M(1)

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Regulatory Information

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NMPRC Commissioners and Districts

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NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas Name District Term Ends Party

Jason Marks District 1 2012 Democrat Patrick Lyons

Chairman

District 2 2014 Republican Vacant (1) District 3 2012 N/A Theresa Becenti-Aguilar

Vice Chair

District 4 2014 Democrat Ben Hall District 5 2014 Republican

(1) Jerome Block resigned on Oct. 7, 2011. Governor Susana Martinez will

appoint a candidate to serve the remainder of Block’s term.

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Utility Rate Base and Return

Test Period (1) Rate Base % of Rate Base Allowed Equity Ratio ROE Increase PNM Retail Current Rates June 30, 2010 $1.8B 89% 51.28% 10.00% $72.1M PNM FERC Transmission Current Rates (2)

  • Dec. 31, 2011

$156.2M 8% 49.40% 12.25% $11.1M PNM FERC Generation (3) Current Rates

  • Dec. 31, 2012

$70M 3% 49.46% 11.00% $8.7M (4) A-7

(1) Period is for the 12 months ending on stated date (2) Rates implemented June 1, 2011, subject to refund pending final order by FERC (3) FERC Generation is comprised of three individual wholesale customer contracts under the jurisdiction of FERC: Navopache Electric

Cooperative, Inc., City of Gallup, and City of Aztec

(4) Rate increase reflects the amount of annual increase filed with FERC under an amended sales agreement between PNM and

Navopache Electric Cooperative, Inc., which represents approximately 60% of the FERC Generation rate base

Test Period (1) Rate Base % of Rate Base Allowed Equity Ratio ROE Increase TNMP Current Rates March 31, 2010 $448.2M 100% 45.00% 10.125% $10.3M

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SLIDE 23

Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics

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Selected Balance Sheet Information

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(1) Excludes debt from affiliate.

Tables may not appear visually accurate due to rounding

Dec 31, 2010 Sep 30, 2011 Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion) PNM $1,055.7 $1,055.8 TNMP 310.3 $310.8 PNMR 199.8 $199.8 Consolidated $1,565.8 $1,566.3 Total Debt (incl. short-term) (1) PNM $1,245.7 $1,312.8 TNMP 310.3 310.8 PNMR 231.8 231.8 Consolidated $1,787.8 $1,855.3

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Liquidity as of Nov. 1, 2011

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PNM Resources PNM TNMP PNM Resources Consolidated Financing Capacity: (in millions) Revolving Credit Facility $300.0 $400.0 $75.0 $775.0 Local lines of credit (LOC) 5.0

  • 5.0

Total Capacity $305.0 $400.0 $75.0 $780.0 As of 11/1/11: LOC balances (1) 69.6 (2) 5.2 0.3 75.1 Remaining availability 235.4 394.8 74.8 705.0 Invested cash 166.7 (3)

  • 166.7 (2)

Available liquidity as of 11/1/11: $402.1 $394.8 $74.8 $871.7

(1) There was no short-term debt as of 11/1/11 (2) Includes First Choice Power LOCs which will be eliminated by end of November (3) Includes proceeds from First Choice Power sale

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Environmental Compliance

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San Juan – BART Timeline

  • Proposed Federal Implementation Plan issued in January
  • Called for SCR technology
  • PNM estimated costs @ between $750M - $1B (total plant costs) on all four units within three years
  • Proposed State Implementation Plan revisions filed with EPA in July
  • Called for SNCR technology
  • PNM estimated costs @ ~$77M (total plant costs)
  • Final BART determination issued Aug. 5
  • Calls for installation of SCR technology on all four units within five years
  • PNM current estimate is at least $750M
  • Decision bypassed alternative technology (SNCR) approved by the state
  • PNM has challenged the EPA decision
  • A Petition for Review of the EPA decision was filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit on Sept. 16.
  • Also on Sept. 16, PNM asked EPA to stay the effective date of the rule pending judicial review.
  • A Petition for Reconsideration with the EPA was filed on October 21, 2011. In this filing, PNM also asks EPA to stay

the effective date of the rule pending EPA’s review.

  • On October 21, Governor Martinez and the NM Environmental Dept also filed a Petition for Reconsideration
  • WildEarth Guardians filed a Petition for Review of the EPA decision (based on the five year vs 3 year compliance

schedule) in the Tenth Circuit

  • PNM also Moved to Intervene in that proceeding on Sept. 16
  • On October 17, several other environmental groups (EarthJustice representing Sierra Club, Dine CARES, New Energy

Economy and others) also filed a separate Petition for Review and were granted leave to intervene.

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Environmental Control Equipment at Coal Units

Coal Unit PNM Share Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X San Juan Unit 2 170 X X X San Juan Unit 3 249 X X X San Juan Unit 4 194 X X X Four Corners Unit 4 97.5 X X Four Corners Unit 5 97.5 X X

(1) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental upgrade. (2) SNCR refers to selective non-catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions. (3) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental upgrade.

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Impact of Proposed Environmental Regulation

Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments San Juan Generating Station

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (FIP) – SCR ~$340M - $460M EPA approved plan on Aug. 5, Filed petition for review with 10th Circuit and filed request for stay with EPA

  • n Sep 16., Filed petition for

reconsideration and request for stay with EPA on Oct. 21 Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (SIP) – SNCR ~$36M State of NM submitted with EPA in early July Mercury Rules (proposed) None to minimal Testing shows 99% removal Clean Water Act - 316(b) (proposed) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance

Four Corners (Units 4 and 5)

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze - SCR ~$69M APS in negotiations with EPA Mercury Rules (MACT) (proposed) Slight exposure APS evaluating options Clean Water Act – 316(b) (proposed) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance

Palo Verde

Clean Water Act – 316(b) (proposed) None to minimal Closed system

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