Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation
November 3, 2011
Earnings Presentation November 3, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Presentation November 3, 2011 Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources, Public Service Company of New Mexicos (PNM), or Texas - New Mexico
November 3, 2011
Safe Harbor Statement
Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’, Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNM Resources, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNM Resources’, PNM’s, and TNMP’s business, financial condition, cash flow, and
looking statements. These factors include: The ability of PNM and TNMP to recover their costs and earn their allowed returns in their regulated jurisdictions; the ability of the Company to successfully forecast and manage its operating and capital expenditures, particularly in the context of a future test year rate case with respect to PNM; the performance of state, regional, and national economies and the resulting impacts on the electricity usage of the Company’s customers; the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (“PVNGS”), the San Juan Generating Station (“SJGS”), and the Four Corners Plant, transmission systems, and distribution systems, which could be negatively affected by major equipment failures, major weather disruptions, disruptions in fuel supply, cyber and physical security breaches, and other significant operational issues; state and federal regulation or legislation relating to climate change, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, coal combustion byproducts , nitrogen oxides, and other power plant emissions, including the risk that the Company may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental requirements, including possible future requirements to address regional haze regulations and related best available retrofit technology requirements and concerns about global climate change, and the resultant impacts on the operations and economic viability of generating plants in which PNM has interests; uncertainties surrounding the mine fire incident at the mine supplying coal to SJGS, including potential impacts on the operations of SJGS, the costs of fuel, and the cap on the annual amounts recoverable through PNM's fuel and purchase power adjustment clause (“FPPAC”); state and federal regulatory, legislative, and judicial decisions and actions, including the outcomes of PNM’s pending transmission and firm requirements power rate cases and appeals of prior regulatory proceedings; uncertainty surrounding the status
potential changes in the objectives of the participants in the projects; uncertainty regarding the requirements and related costs of decommissioning power plants owned or partially owned by PNM and coal mines supplying certain PNM power plants, as well as the ability to recover decommissioning costs from customers; financial and operational risks at PVNGS relating to any increased regulatory review and actions in response to the events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan; the risk that recently enacted reliability standards regarding available transmission capacity may reduce certain PNM transmission rights used to transmit its generation resources and provide access to transmission customers resulting in a need to purchase additional transmission capacity, reduce sales of transmission capacity, or operate generation facilities less economically; the risks associated with completion of generation, transmission, distribution, and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns; the ability of PNM to successfully defend the utilization of a future test year in its electric rate filings with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (“NMPRC”), including PNM’s ability to withstand challenges by regulators and intervenors; the ability of PNM to meet the renewable energy requirements established by the NMPRC, including the resource diversity requirement, within the specified cost parameters; the risk that replacement power costs incurred by PNM related to not meeting the specified capacity factor for its generating units under its Emergency FPPAC will not be approved by the NMPRC; the risk that PNM may not be able to recover a portion of the increased costs of rights-
disruptions in the credit markets and actions by ratings agencies affecting the Company’s credit ratings; the potential unavailability of cash from PNM Resources’ subsidiaries due to regulatory, statutory, or contractual restrictions; the impacts of decreases in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense; the impacts of the true-up of the purchase price for the sale of First Choice Power to the actual amounts of certain components of working capital at closing; uncertainties surrounding the successful completion of PNM Resources' tender offer to repurchase up to $50.0 million of its outstanding 9.25% senior unsecured notes, due in 2015; changes in the Electric Reliability Council Of Texas protocols; collections experience; fluctuations in interest rates; weather; water supply; changes in fuel costs; availability of fuel supplies; the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions; seasonality and other changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power; the impact of mandatory energy efficiency measures on customer energy usage; variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices; volatility and liquidity in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets; uncertainty regarding the ongoing validity of government programs for emission allowances; changes in the competitive environment in the electric industry; the outcome of legal proceedings; the extent of insurance coverage available for claims made in litigation; and changes in applicable accounting principles. Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, and ongoing EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm
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President and CEO
Third Quarter Financial Highlights
Q3 2011 Q3 2010 YTD 2011 YTD 2010 Ongoing EPS $0.61 $0.63 $0.85 $0.90 GAAP EPS $0.48 $0.53 $0.70 $0.69
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(1) (1)
Load Growth Continues Positive Trend
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PNM ∆(1) TNMP ∆(2) PNM ∆(1) TNMP ∆(2) Residential 0.2%
0.9% 2.1% Commercial
0.1%
0.2% Industrial 8.8% 8.1% 5.4% 0.5% Total Retail 0.3% 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% Customer Growth 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% Q3 2011 vs Q3 2010 YTD 2011 vs YTD 2010
Regulated Retail Energy Sales Growth
(weather-normalized KWh)
(1) Excluding Economy Service customers (2) Excluding Transmission Service customers
San Juan - BART Update
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technology
challenging EPA’s decision in federal appeals court and are petitioning EPA for reconsideration
Executive Vice President and CFO
Q3 2011 Financial Summary
$0.63 $0.61 $0.03 $0.03 $0.02 ($0.11) $0.01 Q3 2010 Q3 2011
Ongoing EPS
PNM First Choice Power Optim Energy (1) Other TNMP
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(1) Includes PNM Resources’ share of Optim Energy’s ongoing EPS through August 2011
Regulated Businesses: Q3 2011 EPS (Ongoing)
PNM TNMP
$0.42 $0.45 Q3 2010 Q3 2011
Q3 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS Rate relief $0.07 Weather $0.03 Lower outage costs $0.01 PV3 toll expiration ($0.07) Other ($0.01) Q3 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS Rate relief $0.01 Weather $0.01
$0.08 $0.10 Q3 2010 Q3 2011
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First Choice Power Sale Update
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Credit Rating Agency Actions Moody’s
affirmed PNM rating on Sept. 23, 2011
S&P
positive outlook
PNMR PNM TNMP Debt rating BB (1) BBB- (1) BBB (2) Outlook Positive Positive Positive PNMR PNM TNMP Debt rating Ba1(1) Baa3(1) A3(2) Outlook Stable Stable Stable
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(1) Senior unsecured (2) Senior secured
Recent Financing Transactions
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TNMP
PNM
PNM and PNM Resources
2011 Guidance (Ongoing)
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Corp/Other ($0.17 - $0.15) Regulated $1.00 - $1.05 PNM $0.72 - $0.75 TNMP $0.28 - $0.30 Competitive $0.16 - $0.18
(1) Segments are not additive
Maintain profitability of First Choice Power by
achieving customer growth and increasing retention
Conserve Optim Energy cash and position
generation assets to capitalize as market conditions improve
Key Strategic Goals and Checklist Earn Authorized Return on Our Regulated Businesses Return to Solid Investment Grade Credit Ratings at PNMR
Achieve successful outcomes in:
Maintain strong electric reliability and power
plant availability
Control O&M and capital costs
Maximize the Value of Our Competitive Businesses
Become fully investment grade at:
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Achieved by monetizing
competitive entities and returning value to shareholders
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PNM Plant EAF and Outages
86.8% 77.9% 98.1% 91.3% 85.0% 94.6%
San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde
Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Annual Top Quartile Numbers(1) Coal 91% Nuclear 93% Unit Duration Time Period San Juan
2 47 Q1 – Q2 2012 3 54 Q3 – Q4 2012
Four Corners
4 10 Q4 2011 5 13 Q1 2012
Palo Verde
1 45 Q4 2011 3 44 Q1 - Q2 2012 2 44 Q4 2012
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(1) Annual top quartile number from the North American
Electricity Reliability Council as of August 2011
PNM Resources 5-Year Capital Plan(1) as of Q3 2011
$111 $111 $107 $101 $106 $74 $77 $71 $67 $68 $73 $59 $57 $63 $62 $88 $16 $14 $15 $16 $16 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(In millions)
PNM Generation PNM T&D TNMP T&D PNM Renewables Other (Primarily IT)
$362 $261 $250 $248 $252
(1) Excludes BART capital expenditures
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Guidance (ongoing): First Choice Power & Optim Energy
(1) 100% of Optim Energy
(2) Actual results
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Prior Guidance First Choice Power (Jan – Dec 2011) Optim Energy (Jan – Dec 2011) Earnings (Loss) per Share $0.28 – $0.35 $(0.22)-$(0.19) EBITDA $43M-$53M $20M-$30M (1) Current Guidance First Choice Power (Jan – Oct 2011) Optim Energy (Jan – Aug 2011)(2) Earnings (Loss) per Share $0.22 – $0.24 $(0.06) EBITDA $34M-$37M $40.6M(1)
NMPRC Commissioners and Districts
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NMPRC Districts and PNM Services Areas Name District Term Ends Party
Jason Marks District 1 2012 Democrat Patrick Lyons
Chairman
District 2 2014 Republican Vacant (1) District 3 2012 N/A Theresa Becenti-Aguilar
Vice Chair
District 4 2014 Democrat Ben Hall District 5 2014 Republican
(1) Jerome Block resigned on Oct. 7, 2011. Governor Susana Martinez will
appoint a candidate to serve the remainder of Block’s term.
Utility Rate Base and Return
Test Period (1) Rate Base % of Rate Base Allowed Equity Ratio ROE Increase PNM Retail Current Rates June 30, 2010 $1.8B 89% 51.28% 10.00% $72.1M PNM FERC Transmission Current Rates (2)
$156.2M 8% 49.40% 12.25% $11.1M PNM FERC Generation (3) Current Rates
$70M 3% 49.46% 11.00% $8.7M (4) A-7
(1) Period is for the 12 months ending on stated date (2) Rates implemented June 1, 2011, subject to refund pending final order by FERC (3) FERC Generation is comprised of three individual wholesale customer contracts under the jurisdiction of FERC: Navopache Electric
Cooperative, Inc., City of Gallup, and City of Aztec
(4) Rate increase reflects the amount of annual increase filed with FERC under an amended sales agreement between PNM and
Navopache Electric Cooperative, Inc., which represents approximately 60% of the FERC Generation rate base
Test Period (1) Rate Base % of Rate Base Allowed Equity Ratio ROE Increase TNMP Current Rates March 31, 2010 $448.2M 100% 45.00% 10.125% $10.3M
Selected Balance Sheet Information
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(1) Excludes debt from affiliate.
Tables may not appear visually accurate due to rounding
Dec 31, 2010 Sep 30, 2011 Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion) PNM $1,055.7 $1,055.8 TNMP 310.3 $310.8 PNMR 199.8 $199.8 Consolidated $1,565.8 $1,566.3 Total Debt (incl. short-term) (1) PNM $1,245.7 $1,312.8 TNMP 310.3 310.8 PNMR 231.8 231.8 Consolidated $1,787.8 $1,855.3
Liquidity as of Nov. 1, 2011
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PNM Resources PNM TNMP PNM Resources Consolidated Financing Capacity: (in millions) Revolving Credit Facility $300.0 $400.0 $75.0 $775.0 Local lines of credit (LOC) 5.0
Total Capacity $305.0 $400.0 $75.0 $780.0 As of 11/1/11: LOC balances (1) 69.6 (2) 5.2 0.3 75.1 Remaining availability 235.4 394.8 74.8 705.0 Invested cash 166.7 (3)
Available liquidity as of 11/1/11: $402.1 $394.8 $74.8 $871.7
(1) There was no short-term debt as of 11/1/11 (2) Includes First Choice Power LOCs which will be eliminated by end of November (3) Includes proceeds from First Choice Power sale
San Juan – BART Timeline
the effective date of the rule pending EPA’s review.
schedule) in the Tenth Circuit
Economy and others) also filed a separate Petition for Review and were granted leave to intervene.
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Coal Unit PNM Share Capacity (MW) Activated Carbon Injection (1) SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X San Juan Unit 2 170 X X X San Juan Unit 3 249 X X X San Juan Unit 4 194 X X X Four Corners Unit 4 97.5 X X Four Corners Unit 5 97.5 X X
(1) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental upgrade. (2) SNCR refers to selective non-catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions. (3) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental upgrade.
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Impact of Proposed Environmental Regulation
Estimated Compliance Costs (PNM Share) Comments San Juan Generating Station
Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (FIP) – SCR ~$340M - $460M EPA approved plan on Aug. 5, Filed petition for review with 10th Circuit and filed request for stay with EPA
reconsideration and request for stay with EPA on Oct. 21 Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (SIP) – SNCR ~$36M State of NM submitted with EPA in early July Mercury Rules (proposed) None to minimal Testing shows 99% removal Clean Water Act - 316(b) (proposed) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance
Four Corners (Units 4 and 5)
Clean Air Act – Regional Haze - SCR ~$69M APS in negotiations with EPA Mercury Rules (MACT) (proposed) Slight exposure APS evaluating options Clean Water Act – 316(b) (proposed) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of compliance
Palo Verde
Clean Water Act – 316(b) (proposed) None to minimal Closed system
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