2008 Earnings Presentation February 6, 2009 Safe Harbor Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2008 earnings presentation
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2008 Earnings Presentation February 6, 2009 Safe Harbor Statement - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2008 Earnings Presentation February 6, 2009 Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNMRs, PNMs, or TNMPs (collectively, the


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SLIDE 1

2008 Earnings Presentation

February 6, 2009

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SLIDE 2

2

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share and ongoing EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company's website as follows: http://pnm.client.shareholder.com/investors/gaap.cfm Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNMR’s, PNM’s, or TNMP’s (collectively, the “Companies”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets and strategies, are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates and the Companies assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, the Companies caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. The Companies’ business, financial condition, cash flow and operating results are influenced by many factors (which are often beyond their control) that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward- looking statements. These factors include conditions affecting the Companies’ ability to access the financial markets, or Optim Energy’s access to additional debt financing following the utilization of its existing credit facility, including actions by ratings agencies affecting the Companies’ credit ratings; the recession and its consequent extreme disruption in the credit markets; state and federal regulatory and legislative decisions and actions, including the PNM and TNMP electric rate cases filed in 2008; the performance of generating units, including the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station, the San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners Plant and Optim Energy generating units, and transmission systems; the risk that Optim Energy is unable to identify and implement profitable acquisitions, including development of the Cedar Bayou Generating Station Unit 4, or that PNMR and ECJV will not agree to make additional capital contributions to Optim Energy; the potential unavailability of cash from PNMR’s subsidiaries or Optim Energy due to regulatory, statutory or contractual restrictions; the impacts of the decline in the values of marketable equity securities on the trust funds maintained to provide nuclear decommissioning funding and pension and other postretirement benefits, including the levels of funding and expense; the outcome of any appeals of the PUCT order in the stranded cost true-up proceeding; the ability of First Choice Power to attract and retain customers; changes in ERCOT protocols; changes in the cost of power acquired by First Choice Power; the completion of the impairment analysis related to goodwill at First Choice Power; collections experience; insurance coverage available for claims made in litigation; fluctuations in interest rates; weather; water supply; changes in fuel costs; the risk that PNM Electric may incur fuel and purchased power costs that exceed the cap allowed under its Emergency Fuel and Purchase Power Adjustment Clause; availability of fuel supplies; the effectiveness of risk management and commodity risk transactions; seasonality and

  • ther changes in supply and demand in the market for electric power; variability of wholesale power prices and natural gas prices; volatility and liquidity

in the wholesale power markets and the natural gas markets; uncertainty regarding the ongoing validity of government programs for emission allowances; changes in the competitive environment in the electric and natural gas industries; the ability to secure long-term power sales; the risk that the Companies and Optim Energy may have to commit to substantial capital investments and additional operating costs to comply with new environmental control requirements, including possible future requirements to address concerns about global climate change; the risks associated with completion of generation, including the Cedar Bayou Generating Station Unit 4, transmission, distribution and other projects, including construction delays and unanticipated cost overruns; the outcome of legal proceedings, including pending appeal of PNM’s electric rate case and the Emergency FPPAC; changes in applicable accounting principles; and the performance of state, regional, and national economies.

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SLIDE 3

3

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Opening Remarks

Jeff Sterba

Chairman & CEO

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SLIDE 4

4

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Presentation Summary

Ongoing 2008 EPS: $0.12 2008 was a difficult transitional year. Focus was on shoring up the foundation to provide sustainable returns in the future Significant progress made on four key initiatives

  • Achieve fair regulatory treatment for all our regulated utilities
  • Streamline processes, reduce costs and maximize efficiency
  • Separate merchant operations from PNM utility for regulatory simplicity
  • Focus on core regulated and unregulated electric businesses

2009 outlook provided

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SLIDE 5

5

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

  • Close the sale of NM gas business in the 4th quarter

Close the acquisition of Cap Rock Energy in the 4th quarter Continue disciplined growth of First Choice Power retail business Opportunistically expand EnergyCo’s asset/trading position in ERCOT Ensure Palo Verde’s return to premier operating status within 24 months Complete scheduled environmental upgrades at San Juan Unit 3 by April, Unit 1 by November Achieve annual O&M reduction of at least $35 million Further evaluate PNM electric rate relief action, pending outcome of current rate case

  • Received regulatory approval in 4th quarter and closed the transaction on January 30th, met all operational transition milestone

2008 Checklist

s Terminated agreement; PNM Resources received $15M at close of PNM Gas sale

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SLIDE 6

6

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Utility Operations

Pat Vincent-Collawn

President & COO

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SLIDE 7

7

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

PNM: Solid Achievements in 2008

Implemented new rates in May, FPPAC in June Filed subsequent rate case in September

  • Reached generation resource stipulation with key parties

Completed San Juan scheduled environmental upgrades Maintained top-quartile T&D reliability Ensured Palo Verde continued improvement Achieved Business Improvement Plan targets

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SLIDE 8

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

PNM: 2009 Key Focus Areas

Achieve appropriate regulatory treatment to earn allowed ROE

Seek timely recovery of costs

  • Advocate legislative action for forward test year, GHG cost recovery

Enhance stakeholder relationships

  • Continue momentum of recent regulatory stipulations

Expand renewable portfolio through effective recovery avenues

Streamline capital deployment, manage costs and focus on fundamentals

Maintain Business Improvement Plan commitments Continue improving power plant availability

Complete final San Juan environmental upgrade

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SLIDE 9

9

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

TNMP: Solid Achievements in 2008

Good contributor to earnings Filed rate case in August 2008

  • First increase request in more than 5 years
  • Unlocks transmission cost recovery mechanism

Hurricane Ike response

  • Largest restoration effort in company history
  • Praised by public officials

Achieved Business Improvement Plan targets

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SLIDE 10

10

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

TNMP: 2009 Key Focus Areas

Streamline capital deployment, manage costs and focus on fundamentals

Seek timely recovery of costs

  • Will be amending rate case to recover:
  • Hurricane Ike costs
  • Higher interest expense

Enhance stakeholder relationships

  • Possible rate case settlement

Achieve appropriate regulatory treatment to earn allowed ROE

Maintain Business Improvement Plan commitments

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

$564 $422 $563 $419 $300 $339

2008E - 2012E 2009E - 2013E

($ Millions)

$1,741 $1,387

PNM T&D PNM

TNMP

TNMP

Delay of new plant construction due to

inclusion of the Luna & Lordsburg plants into rate base

Lower load growth expectations Reduction in nuclear fuel costs Completion of San Juan environmental

upgrades

TNMP increase targeted for transmission

expansion

TNMP

PNM T&D Generation Generation $149-Other

$71-Other

Comparison of 5-year capital spending plans

$165-Nuclear Fuel $136-Nuclear Fuel

2008E – 2012E 2009E – 2013E

Streamlining Capital Deployment

Reduced forecasted 5-year capital spending by $354 million

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12

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

First Choice Power Jeff Sterba

Chairman & CEO, PNM Resources

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

First Choice Power: Restoring Value

$41 $58 $48 2005 2006 2007 2008

Ongoing EBITDA

($ millions)

Unacceptable Results in 2008

Major Drivers EBITDA ‘07 vs ‘08 Lower average unit margins ($32) Bad debt ($34) Other ($9)

But, Seeing a Return to Growth

During Q4, customer churn returned to more

sustainable levels and enrollments grew 40% above 2007

Percentage of fixed price residential customers

increased from 47% to 67%

Margins returned to historical healthy levels

  • Margins Jan – Jun 08: $11.33/MWh
  • Margins Jul – Dec 08: $24.21/MWh

2008 was the best year for commercial sales

  • 42% increase in signed margins
  • 31% increase in new contracts

Residential Customer Count

(at month end, #s in thousands)

182 196 192

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

(1)

(1) $41M reflects post acquisition EBITDA. PNM Resources acquired FCP in June 2005.

($27)

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14

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

First Choice Power: 2009 Key Focus Areas

Strengthen customer acquisition, retention and mix

  • Acquire strategic commercial customers to mitigate risk
  • Introduce price segmentation to achieve risk-adjusted margins
  • Maintain customer satisfaction

Stabilize margins Mitigate bad debt exposure

Stabilize earnings and restore value

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SLIDE 15

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Jeff Sterba

Chairman & CEO, PNM Resources

formerly EnergyCo, LLC

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Optim Energy: Grew the Business in 2008

Strong progress on building-out the business

  • Management team
  • Systems

Strong availability at Twin Oaks Power and Altura Cogen Optimization of Altura Cogen Cedar Bayou 4 (275 MW) on schedule for summer 2009

commercial operation

Built-out infrastructure to become a full-service Qualified

Scheduling Entity (QSE)

  • Became Level IV QSE on February 2

$49 million EBITDA, up from $9 million in 2007

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SLIDE 17

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Optim Energy: 2009 Key Focus Areas

Pursue strategic growth to provide long-term value

Grow EBITDA 10% Continue to implement tools, people and processes to support asset optimization Maintain strong power plant performance Successfully integrate Cedar Bayou 4 Evaluate strategic expansion of asset fleet

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Financial Overview

Chuck Eldred

Executive Vice President & CFO

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SLIDE 19

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Full Year 2008 EPS (Ongoing)

$1.11 $0.12 2007 2008 $0.26 $0.14 $0.12 $0.57 $0.16 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08

PNM Regulated Fuel Costs & Rate Recovery PNM Scheduled Generation Outages Nuclear Decommissioning Trust Financing & Dilution First Choice Excluding Financing & Dilution Optim Energy Other Transfer of Twin Oaks to Optim Energy

►Ongoing earnings: $0.12 down from $1.11 in 2007

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SLIDE 20

20

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2009 EPS Outlook by Segment (Ongoing)

Ongoing EPS 2008 2009

( Excluding Rate Relief)

Regulated Operations Electric (PNM & TNMP) $0.47 $0.32 - $0.47 PNM Gas 0.26 0.04 - 0.05 Sub-total $0.73 $0.36 - $0.52 Unregulated Operations First Choice Power (0.26) 0.10 - 0.15 Optim Energy (PNMR Share - 50%) (0.03) (0.08) - (0.03) Sub-total ($0.29) $0.02 - $0.12 Corp/Other (primarly financing) (0.32) (0.20) - (0.16) Total EPS $0.12 $0.25 - $0.40 (1) Ongoing EBITDA

($ Millions)

Unregulated Operations 2008 2009 First Choice Power ($27) $20 - $35 Optim Energy (100%) $49 $55 - $70

Due to the sale of PNM Gas, quarterly earnings distribution will change

  • Expecting a loss in 1st quarter

(1) Business segment outlook ranges are not additive

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SLIDE 21

21

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Impact of Rate Cases on 2009 EPS

PNM Electric

$ millions Requested Increase in Base Rates 123 $ Fuel & Purchased Power currently recovered via FPPAC (38) Net increase in revenue due to rate relief 85 $ Annualized EPS Impact (assumes 100% rate relief) 0.57 $ 2009 EPS Impact (assumes Oct. 1, 2009 rate implementation) 0.15 $

TNMP

$ millions Requested Increase in Base Rates 8.7 $ Estimate for increase in financing costs ~ 9.0 Hurricane Ike restoration costs ~4.0 Subtotal 21.7 $ Incremental amortization of Hurricane Ike costs (4.0) Net Increase 17.7 $ Annualized EPS Impact (assumes 100% rate relief) 0.12 $ 2009 EPS Impact (assumes Q4 2009 implementation) 0.02 $

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2009 EPS Outlook by Segment (Ongoing)

Ongoing EPS 2008 2009

( Excluding Rate Relief)

2009

(100% Rate Relief)

Regulated Operations Electric (PNM & TNMP) $0.47 $0.32 - $0.47 $0.49 - $0.64 (2) PNM Gas 0.26 0.04 - 0.05 0.04 - 0.05 Sub-total $0.73 $0.36 - $0.52 $0.53 - $0.69 Unregulated Operations First Choice Power (0.26) 0.10 - 0.15 0.10 - 0.15 Optim Energy (PNMR Share - 50%) (0.03) (0.08) - (0.03) (0.08) - (0.03) Sub-total ($0.29) $0.02 - $0.12 $0.02 - $0.12 Corp/Other (primarly financing) (0.32) (0.20) - (0.16) (0.20) - (0.16) Total EPS $0.12 $0.25 - $0.40 (1) $0.45 - $0.60 (1,2) Ongoing EBITDA

($ Millions)

Unregulated Operations 2008 2009 First Choice Power ($27) $20 - $35 Optim Energy (100%) $49 $55 - $70

(1) Business segment outlook ranges are not additive (2) Assumes partial year of new rates

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2008 Actual 2009 Outlook 2009 Outlook $0.47 $0.32 – $0.47

Excluding Rate Relief

$0.49 – $0.64

100% Rate Relief (1)

Regulated Operations – 2009 EPS Outlook (Ongoing)

(1) Assumes partial year of new rates

Major Year-over-year Drivers EPS Estimate

Expiration of long-term contracts $0.10 – $0.13 Load growth ($0.02) – $0.04 Impact of lower market prices on Southern NM $0.03 – $0.05 New depreciation rates ($0.08) – ($0.06) Higher interest expense ($0.16) – ($0.12) Dilution ($0.05) Full year 2008 base rate increase & FPPAC $0.08 Pension ($0.07) – ($0.05)

Electric Utilities - PNM & TNMP

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24

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2008 Actual 2009 Outlook

Unregulated Operations - 2009 EBITDA Outlook

2008 Actual 2009 Outlook

$20 - $35 ($27)

First Choice Power

($ Millions)

Optim Energy (100%)

($ Millions)

$49 $55 - $70

Major Drivers

EBITDA ’08 vs ‘09

Asset Optimization $5 - $10 Cedar Bayou 4 online $7 - $9

(Ongoing)

Major Drivers

EBITDA ’08 vs ‘09

Higher margins $47 – $55 Lower bad debt $6 – $11 Marketing ($6) – ($4)

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SLIDE 25

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2010 Earnings Considerations

Impact of pending rate cases

  • Full rate relief totals $0.69 of EPS; incremental $0.52 over 2009

Increased pension expense

  • Currently estimated at $0.03 - $0.05 EPS

Higher financing costs

  • Full year impact of increased borrowings in 2009

Increased plant outage O&M

  • Major outages planned at San Juan (2), Four Corners, Afton, Reeves
  • Could range between $0.03 - $0.05 EPS
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SLIDE 26

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Utilities Potential Earnings Power - 2011

(1) TNMP net earnings includes $5 million of net income associated with CTC (stranded cost) recovery.

Equity % Allowed ROE Earnings Potential per share PNM Electric 1,895 $ M 50.0% 948 $ M 10.1% 96 $ M 1.04 $ Firm Wholesale Customers 195 M 50.0% 98 M 10.0% 10 M 0.11 $ TNMP 465 M 40.0% 186 M 10.25% 24 M (1) 0.26 $ Total 2,555 $ M 130 $ M 1.41 $ PVNGS Unit 3 (excluded asset) 10 M 0.11 $ Total 140 $ M 1.52 $ Net Income Equity Projected Rate Base

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

$200

$48 $50

$242 $316 $286

PNMR Hold Co TNMP PNM

Available Liquidity

($ Millions)

2009 Cash Flow and Liquidity

2009 Cash Flow Projection

($ Millions) 1/29/09 Actual * 12/31/09 Outlook * For more detail, see page A-15 in appendix

Sources of cash Cash from operations 1 $205 Proceeds from sale of PNM Gas (pre-tax) 640 Cap Rock termination fee (pre-tax) 15 Total Inflows $860 Uses of cash Tax on PNM Gas proceeds 142 Capital spending 367 Tender offer plus accrued interest 149 Short-term debt repayment - PNM 240 Short-term debt repayment - PNMR 109 Current dividends 45 Total Outflows $1,052 Net Cash Flow ($192)

$606 $536

1 Assumes partial year of new rates

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28

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Closing Remarks

Jeff Sterba

Chairman & CEO

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February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2009 Checklist

  • Achieve successful outcomes in PNM and TNMP rate cases
  • Restore First Choice Power’s sustainable earnings potential
  • Grow EBITDA to targeted levels at Optim Energy
  • Streamline capital deployment, manage costs and focus on

utility fundamentals

  • Improve credit metrics
  • Maintain top quartile performance in reliability
  • Strong operational performance at all baseload units
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30

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Questions & Answers Questions & Answers

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SLIDE 31

A-1

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Appendix

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SLIDE 32

A-2

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

PNM Electric Assumptions

2008 Assumptions Actual 2009 2010 Retail load growth (1.8%) (0.7%) - 1.3% 0% - 1.5% Average cost coal generation ($/MWh) $24.40 ~$22.50 ~$25.30 Average gas price (Permian in $/MMBtu) $7.42 ~$6.00 ~$7.90 Average power price (PV-On Peak $/MWh) $71.78 ~$55.60 ~$72.20 Average depreciation rate 2.35% 2.83% 2.83%

New depreciation rates effective October 1, 2009

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SLIDE 33

A-3

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

76.5% 78.8% 83.0% 87.7% 87.1% 83.1% 86.7% 78.9% 82.5%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

Coal: 88%*……………………………………………………

2008A 2009E 2010E 2008A 2009E 2010E 2008A 2009E 2010E

…………………………..Nuclear: 91%*

2009 & 2010 Outage Schedule

PNM Plant EAF and Outages

* Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Council

San Juan Unit Duration (days) Time Period 2 57 Q1 2009 4 36 Q1 2010 3 36 Q1/Q2 2010 Four Corners 4 10 Q1 2009 5 10 Q4 2009 4 91 Q1/Q2 2010 Palo Verde 3 41 Q2 2009 2 59 Q4 2009 1 59 Q1/Q2 2010 3 59 Q4 2010

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SLIDE 34

A-4

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Seasonality of Earnings after PNM Gas Sale

  • 40%

0% 40% 80% Pre-sale Post-sale Pre-sale 15% 15% 40% 30% Post-sale

  • 25%

25% 75% 25% 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr % of Total Year Earnings

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SLIDE 35

A-5

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

2008 Assumptions Actual 2009 2010 Average Unit Margin per MWh $18 $25 - $27 $21 - $24 Customers 237,000 264,000 281,000 2008 Assumptions Actual 2009 2010 Retail load growth (weather normalized) 1.1% (0.5%) - 1.3% 0% - 1.5% CTC revenue $20.6M 16.1M 16.3M Average depreciation rate 3.38% 3.34% 3.34%

New depreciation rates effective September 1, 2009

TNMP Assumptions First Choice Assumptions

TNMP & First Choice Assumptions

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SLIDE 36

A-6

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Financing & Other Assumptions

Use of after-tax proceeds from PNM Gas sale

  • Pay down short term debt of $240M at PNM Electric
  • Buy-back $157M of 9.25% SUN at 93%
  • Pay down short-term debt of $73M at PNM Resources

Pension income anticipated to be approximately $0; In 2008, income from pension assets totaled about $8M. Diluted shares outstanding:

  • 2009 & 2010: 91.7M
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SLIDE 37

A-7

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

$98 $97 $100 $95 $28 $23 $62 $80

$17 $11 2009E 2010E Other TNMP Nuclear Fuel PNM Generation PNM T&D

$305 $306

PNM Resources Capital Spending Plan

($ millions)

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SLIDE 38

A-8

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Optim Energy EBITDA

Optim Energy Reconciliation of EBITDA to Ongoing Earnings ($ millions) 2008 Ongoing EBITDA (100%) 48.9 $ 55.0 $

  • 70.0

$ Depreciation (30.5) (38.0)

  • (38.0)

Contract Amortization (8.9) (12.2)

  • (12.2)

Interest (19.2) (24.5)

  • (23.5)

Twin Oaks 3 (23.0)

  • CAIR

(31.7)

  • Losses on forward mark on economic hedges

6.3

  • Speculative trading

2.4

  • Margin Tax

0.1 (0.5)

  • (0.5)

Net Earnings (100% Optim Energy) (55.6) $ (20.2) $

  • (4.2)

$ Net Earnings (50% PNMR share) (27.8) $ (10.1) $

  • (2.1)

$ Ongoing EPS (Adjusted for tax and amort) (0.03) $

(1)

(0.08) $ (0.03) $

(2)

(1) Ongoing EPS does not include the impact of impairments or MTM. (2) Calculation of EPS in 2009 includes a PNMR adjustment of $1.7M reflecting the difference in the Twin Oaks contract basis.

Range 2009 Guidance

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SLIDE 39

A-9

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

91.9% 91.4% 2008A 2009E 2010

Optim Energy Plant Assumptions

Planned Outages Twin Oaks Duration (days) Time Period 35 Q1/ Q2 2009 Altura Cogen 14 Q1 2009 4 Q3 2009 58 Q4 2009

96.0% 98.1% 2008A 2009E

Altura Cogen Twin Oaks

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SLIDE 40

A-10

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

PNM Electric Rate Case

Filed on: 9/22/2008 For implementation: Q3/Q4 2009 ROE:

11.75%

Revenue Requirement: $807.4M Rate Base: $1.6B Requested Fuel Clause Rate Increase: $123.3M Capital Structure Long-term debt: Preferred stock: Common equity: 49.11% 0.42% 50.47% Weighted Cost of Capital (after- tax): 9.4% Staff & Intervenor testimony 02/27/2009 Rebuttal testimony due 03/23/2009 Hearings begin 03/30/2009 Recommended decision Q2 2009 Final Order Q3 2009

Schedule Summary

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SLIDE 41

A-11

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

TNMP Electric Rate Case

For implementation: Q3/Q4 2009 ROE: 11.25% Revenue Requirement: $162.9M Rate Base: $399.6M Rate Base: Requested cost of service: Wholesale transmission: $20.8M or 19.6% increase Retail T&D: $142.0M or 3.9% increase Total increase: $8.7M or 5.6% increase Weighted average cost of capital: 8.79% Requesting a catastrophe reserve fund and requesting a municipal franchise fee rider: $2M Case abated to allow TNMP to supplement testimony to include Hurricane Ike costs and to address debt costs Q4 2009 Final Order Q4 2009 Open Meeting 09/30/2008

Pre-Hearing Conference

Schedule Summary

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SLIDE 42

A-12

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Utility Rate Base

Rate Base Last Allowed ROE Last Allowed Test Period 12- month ended Comments Debt- Equity Ratio Implemented PNM-Electric $1.2 billion 10.1%

  • Sept. 2006

Final order issued May 2008 48%-52% May 2008 PNM - South (formerly TNMP- NM) $70 million 10.0%

  • Sept. 2004

Rates frozen through Dec. 2010 55%-45% NA TNMP-TX $402 million 10.25%

  • Sept. 2004

Rates Frozen through May 2007 60%-40% NA

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SLIDE 43

A-13

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

New Mexico PRC

Name District Term Ends Party Jason Marks District 1- Bernalillo 2012* Democrat David King

Vice Chair

District 2- Southern Bernalillo & Santa Fe,

Torrance Lincoln, Otero, DeBaca, Quay, Curry, Roosevelt, Chavez, Eddy, Lea

2010* Republican Jerome Block District 3- Taos, Rio Arriba, Colfax, Union,

Mora, Harding, San Miguel, Guadalupe, Santa Fe. Los Alamos

2012 Democrat Carol K. Sloan District 4- San Juan, Rio Arriba, McKinley,

Cibola, Sandoval, Bernalillo, Santa Fe, Socorro (NW)

2010 Democrat Sandy Jones

Chairman

District 5- Valencia, Socorro, Catron, Sierra,

Don Ana, Luna, Grant, Hidalgo,Lincoln (SW), Otero (NW)

2010 Democrat

* Two term limit reached

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SLIDE 44

A-14

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Rate Base & Revenue Requirement

As currently requested in PNM Electric Rate Case

a) Includes: $205M costs included in base fuel rate (from which the FPPAC is applied) $18M Other fuel items - includes fuel handling, coal mine decommissioning costs and gas transportation costs (all excluded from fuel clause) $25M Other Purchased Power - demand charges included in base rates, but to be excluded in the permanent fuel clause b) Reflects Test Period Revenues which were annualized to reflect end of base period customers and a full year of the rates approved by the Commission in Case 07-00077-UT, and were adjusted for known and measurable changes.

$ Millions NMPRC Rate Base 9/20/06 Rate Base 1,192 $ Luna, Lordsburg, PV2 149 San Juan Environmental (Units 1-4) 146 Transmission and Distribution Plant 63 Other Rate Base Items 49 Total Rate Base 3/31/08 1,599 Revenue Requirement Return on Rate Base (@ 9.4% WACC) 150 $ Fuel and Purchased Power 248

(a)

Non-fuel O&M 258 Depreciation 79 All Other expenses 95 Revenue Credit (23) Revenue Requirement 807 $ Test Year Revenue 684

(b)

Revenue deficiency 123 $ Fuel currently recovered in FPPAC (38) Incremental Net Earnings from Rate Relief 85 $

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SLIDE 45

A-15

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Liquidity

($ millions)

Liquidity Summary

PNM Resources PNM TNMP PNM Resources (As of 1/29/09) Including FCP Separate Separate Consolidated Revolving credit facility

(1)

$600 $400 $200 $1,200 Local lines of credit (2) $10 $8 $18 Delayed draw term loan $150 $150 Letters of credit agreement $100 $100 TNMP capital markets bridge (3) $100 $100 Total financing $610 $658 $300 $1,568 Total borrowings and letters of credit outstanding $387 $367 $252 $1,006 Remaining availability $223 $291 $48 $562 Cash balances $19 $25 $0 $44 Available Liquidity $242 $316 $48 $606

(3) Expires on March 30, 2009 (1) PNMR revolver has $600M capacity until Aug.15, 2010; reduces to $574M until Aug. 2011 and to $549M until Aug. 2012. PNM

revolver has $400M capacity until Aug. 17, 2010; reduces to $386M until Aug 2011 and to $368M until Aug. 2012. TNMP revolver expires May 2009.

(2) Expires on August 15, 2009

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SLIDE 46

A-16

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Credit Ratings

S&P

PNM Resources BB- PNM BB+ TNMP BB+ Outlook: Negative Moody’s PNM Resources Ba2 PNM Baa3 TNMP Baa3 Outlook: Negative Fitch PNM Resources BB PNM BB+ TNMP BBB- Outlook: Stable

Credit Agency Ratings Credit Agency Ratings

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SLIDE 47

A-17

February 6, 2009: Preliminary & Unaudited

Weather

PNM Electric

Heating Degree Days

Heating Degree Days

Normal 2008 2007 Normal 2008 2007 Q1 1,925 2,096 2,062 Q1 947 896 1,014 Q2 291 370 338 Q2 50 46 99 Q3 15 1 Q3 1 Q4 1,641 1,517 1,503 Q4 706 635 573 Total FY 3,872 3,983 3,904 Total FY 1,704 1,577 1,686 Cooling Degree Days Cooling Degree Days Normal 2008 2007 Normal 2008 2007 Q1 Q1 82 113 111 Q2 476 478 412 Q2 1,016 1,155 941 Q3 1,000 902 1,124 Q3 1,702 1,655 1,718 Q4 18 12 24 Q4 254 240 388 Total FY 1,494 1,392 1,560 Total FY 3,054 3,163 3,158

TNMP