Earnings Presentation 4Q & FY 2019 Results Disclaimer The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

earnings presentation
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Earnings Presentation 4Q & FY 2019 Results Disclaimer The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The National Commercial Bank Earnings Presentation 4Q & FY 2019 Results Disclaimer The National Commercial Bank (NCB) prepared this presentation on a proprietary basis as general background information about the activities of NCB. The


slide-1
SLIDE 1

Earnings Presentation

The National Commercial Bank 4Q & FY 2019 Results

slide-2
SLIDE 2

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Disclaimer

2

The National Commercial Bank (NCB) prepared this presentation on a proprietary basis as general background information about the activities of NCB. The information contained herein is given in summary form and for discussion purposes only. Some of the information that is relied upon by NCB is

  • btained from sources believed to be reliable, but NCB (nor any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, affiliates or subsidiaries) does not guarantee

the accuracy or completeness of such information, and disclaims all liability or responsibility for any loss or damage caused by any act taken as a result

  • f the information. This presentation including the information covered therein is not intended either to be relied upon or construed as an advertisement

for, or an offer, solicitation or invitation to sell or issue, or to subscribe, underwrite or otherwise acquire any securities in any jurisdiction. It should and must not be treated as giving tax, legal, investment or other specialist advice or a recommendation to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Neither shall any part of this information nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision or commitment relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the subject of this presentation. All statements included in this presentation other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, those regarding financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives) are forward-looking statements and may thus include words like "anticipate", "believe", "intend", "estimate", "expect", "will", "may", "project", "plan" and such other words of similar meaning. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding present and future business strategies and the relevant future business

  • environment. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation and NCB expressly disclaims to the fullest extent permitted

by law any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. Nothing in the foregoing is intended to or shall exclude any liability for, or remedy in respect of, fraudulent misrepresentation. Due to rounding, numbers and percentages presented throughout this presentation may not add up precisely to the totals provided. NCB is not under any obligation to update, complete, amend, revise or keep current the information contained herein, and any opinions expressed herein are subject to change materially without notice. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made by NCB, their respective advisors or any such persons’ directors, officers or employees, or any other person as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or

  • pinions contained in this presentation, and any reliance you place on them will be at your sole risk. Investors must rely solely on their own examinations
  • f the Offering and relevant documentation in making a determination as to whether to invest in the securities described. An investor should seek

independent professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate. Securities that may be discussed herein may not be suitable for all

  • investors. Investors are required to make their own independent investigation and appraisal of the business and financial condition of NCB and its

subsidiaries, the nature of the securities and the merits or suitability of the securities or any transaction to any investor’s particular situation and

  • bjectives, including the possible risks and benefits of purchasing any securities. Any such determination should involve an assessment of the legal, tax,

accounting, regulatory, financial, credit or other related aspects of the offering or the securities. Without prejudice to the foregoing, NCB, their advisors and any such persons’ directors, officers or employees expressly disclaim any liability whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from use of, or reliance on, this presentation or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith.

slide-3
SLIDE 3

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Net et i income e (SA SARbn) Fina nanc ncing ng (SA SARbn)

Key Messages

3

Agenda for today's FY 2019 earnings call

9.6 11.4 +19%

5 10 15 20 25 30

FY 18 FY 19 265 282 +6%

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

4Q 18 4Q 19 FY FY 20 2019 Guida danc nce FY FY 20 2019 Rep eported ed Fina nanc ncing ng Gro rowth +4-6% +6.5% NSCI M I Margi rgin 3.65% - 3.69%* 3,77% Cos

  • st to I
  • Incom
  • me

Below 34% 30.7% Cost st of R f Risk sk 0.6% - 0.8% 0.51% Tier 1 C CAR AR 16% - 18% 18.0%

* FY 2019 outlook provided in 2Q and 3Q 2019 were at similar levels of ~3.5% Excluding the restatement impact of fee amortization, NSCI margin would have been 3.52%

Business Segments Strategic Enablers

  • 1. Tangible progress against strategic agenda
  • 2. Strong financial performance
  • 3. Exceeded original guidance expectations
  • 4. Positive momentum and outlook for 2020
slide-4
SLIDE 4

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

LDR Cost of Risk Net Income (TRYmn) AUM Net Income (SARmn) Investment Income (SARmn) Net Income (SARmn)

2019 Strategy Highlights

4

Strategic Priorities

RETAIL AIL CORP RPORA RATE TREASURY RY NCB C CAP APIT ITAL AL TÜ TÜRKIYE YE FIN INAN ANS KATIL ILIM IM BAN ANKAS ASI (TFKB FKB)

Net Income (SARmn) Mortgage Financing Growth (SARbn) Net Income Return on Assets 24 37

(5) 5 15 25 35 45 55

4Q 18 4Q 19

+57 57% +32 32% +21 21% +33p 33ps +2% 2%

376 459

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2018 2019

+22% 22% +8% 8%

445 377

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2018 2019

  • 15

15% +7 +76bp bps +1 +175% 5%

4,375 5,765

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

2018 2019 1.84% 2.17% 2018 2019 3,418 3,497

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

2018 2019 514 1,411

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

2018 2019

SAR 156bn 2.21%

2,399 2,905

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

2018 2019

  • 31

31bps

76%

slide-5
SLIDE 5

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

2019 Strategy Highlights

Strategic Enablers

DIG IGIT ITIZ IZATIO ION

Digital Transactors (% of Total) Digital Sales (% of Total) Branch Transactions Digital Account Opening

5

LEAN AN D DIS ISTRIB IBUTIO ION

Branches Self-Service Kiosks Average FTE / new Branch FTE / Branch 39% 50% 62% 2017 2018 2019

+12ppt 2ppts

YoY

  • Y

51%

+23 23ppt ppts

2.2%

  • 75bp

5bps

19% 71%

1 1 1 1

2018 2019

+52ppt 2ppts

401 434

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

4Q 18 4Q 19

+33 33

315

+21 210

10.4 9.9 9.6 2017 2018 2019

  • 3%

3%

YoY

  • Y

PRODUC DUCTIVITY

Front to Back Office Ratio NOR per Employee (SARmn) Cost to Income Ratio, excl. International

72% to 28%

+30b 30bps

6

  • 23

237bps ps

29.3%

2.1 2.2 2.5 2017 2018 2019

+11% 11%

YoY

  • Y
slide-6
SLIDE 6

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

2019 Financial Highlights

6

Strong financial performance from positive trends in key driver metrics

RO ROE

18.4%

+221 bps

ROA OA

2.4%

+22 bps

Net et I Income e (SAR mn)

11,401

+19%

Total A Asse ssets s (SAR bn)

507.3

+12%

Ope peratin ing In Income (SAR mn)

20,607

+9%

NSCI

15,807

+5%

NSCI Margin Fee & Other Income

4,801

+26%

Cost st t to I Inco come me Rat Ratio

  • 334pbs

Cos

  • st of
  • f Ri

Risk

0.51%

+0bps

NPL C Cover erage e Rat Ratio

138.1%

  • 338bps

Fina nanc ncing ng (SAR bn)

+6%

Cust ustome mer D Deposi sits (SAR bn)

+11%

Inves estmen ents (SAR bn)

134.1

+14%

EPS PS (SAR)

+19%

DP DPS (SAR)

+10% 3.08 3.68

2018 2019

2.10 2.30

2018 2019

319 353

2018 2019

265 282

2018 2019

3.81% 3.77%

2018 2019

34.1% 30.7%

2018 2019

slide-7
SLIDE 7

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Asset Deployment

Healthy balance sheet growth from financing and Investments

7

452.2 17.2 16.0 13.5 8.4 507.3 +12%

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00

4Q 18 Financing Invest- ments Cash, Bank & SAMA Other 4Q 19

Movement i nt in n Tot

  • tal A

Assets (S (SARb Rbn) n)

265 282 118 134 48 62 21 29 452 507

1 1 1

4Q 18 4Q 19

Tot

  • tal Assets C

Com

  • mpos
  • sition
  • n

(S (SARb Rbn) n)

Other Cash, Bank & SAMA Investments Financing 452 507

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Tot

  • tal A

Assets Trend nd (S (SARb Rbn) n)

slide-8
SLIDE 8

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

265.1 13.5 5.5 (1.9) 1.8 (1.7) 282.3 +6%

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

4Q 18 Mortgages Other Corporate FI Inter- national 4Q 19

Movement nt in F n Fina nanc ncing ng (S (SARb Rbn) n)

Financing

Financing growth of 6% mainly from strong Retail mortgage origination

8

Reta etail +SAR 19bn (+18%)

Guida danc nce +4%-6%

104 123

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Retail (S (SARb Rbn) n)

131 129

50 100 150 200 250

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Cor

  • rpor
  • rate (S

(SARb Rbn) n)

21 20

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Int nterna nationa

  • nal (S

(SARb Rbn) n)

slide-9
SLIDE 9

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Saudi Government securities 52% Other investment grade 35% Non- investment grade 5% Equity &

  • thers

8%

Investment nts b by y Credit Grade (S (SARb Rbn) n)

Investments

Continued participation in Saudi Government Issuance drives investment portfolio growth

9

118.1 13.9 (5.1) 3.0 4.2 134.1 +14%

20 40 60 80 100

4Q 18 Saudi Government securities Other investment grade Non- investment grade Equity &

  • thers

4Q 19

Movement nt in n Investment nts (S (SARb Rbn) n)

118 134 34

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

4Q 18 4Q 19 118 134 34

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

4Q 18 4Q 19

Fixed rate securities 64% Floating rate securities 29% Equity instruments & others 7%

Investment nts b by y Typ ype (S (SARb Rbn) n)

slide-10
SLIDE 10

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

CASA 71% Time 25% Others 4%

Cust ustomers' s' D Deposi sits M s Mix (S (SARb Rbn) n)

Interbank 14% Customers' deposits 81% Debt 0% Other 5%

Total al Liab iabil ilitie ities M Mix ix ( (SARbn)

Funding

Balance sheet growth funded by growth in time deposits and effective utilization of inter-bank markets

10

Domesti estic D c Dep eposi sits ts +SAR 28.4bn (+9%) Intern ternati tional Dep eposi sits ts +SAR 6.3bn (+33%)

387 87 43 437

100 200 300 400 500

4Q 18 4Q 19 31 319 353 53

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

4Q 18 4Q 19

452.2 (6.6) 36.7 16.2 (1.7) 2.6 3.6 0.2 (8.4) 507.3 +12% 8.5 4.1

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

4Q 18 CASA Time Other CASA Time Other Inter- bank Debt Other Liabil- ities Total Equity 4Q 19

Movement i nt in n Fund nding ng (S (SARb Rbn) n)

slide-11
SLIDE 11

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

* Impairments include impairment charges for financing, investments and goodwill

9,594 683 996 115 215 78 (327) 46 11,401 +19%

0.00 1,000.00 2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00

FY 18 NSCI Fee & Other Income Expenses Impair- ments* Other Non- Operating Zakat & Tax Minorities FY 19

Net I Inc ncom

  • me aft

fter Z Zakat and nd I Inc ncom

  • me Tax a

x attributed t to E

  • Equity

y Hol

  • lders (S

(SARm Rmn) n)

Net Income

Strong growth in net income, driven by NSCI and Investment income, combined with controlled operating and credit costs

11

16.2% 18.4% +221 bps

1

FY 18 FY 19

RO ROE (% (%)

3.08 3.68 +19%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

FY 18 FY 19

EPS PS (S (SAR) R)

2.10 2.30 +10%

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5

FY 18 FY 19

DPS PS (S (SAR) R)

slide-12
SLIDE 12

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

15,123 1,356 216 (394) (34) (7) 15,807 +5% 3.81% +16 bps +0 bps

  • 8 bps
  • 10 bps
  • 0 bps
  • 2 bps

3.77% (454)

  • 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

FY 18 Financing mix & yield Investments Deposit mix & cost Wholesale funding Other International FY 19

Movement i nt in n Net S Special Com

  • mmision I
  • n Inc

ncom

  • me (S

(SARm Rmn) & n) & NSCI Margin n (% (%)

Outlook

  • ok @

@3Q 3.51%

NSCI and Margin

Margin negatively impacted by change in funding mix, partly offset by positive retail mix impact

12

Domesti estic +SAR 717mn (+5%}

Guida danc nce 3.65%-3.69%

* Excluding the restatement impact of fee amortization

3.52%*

slide-13
SLIDE 13

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

269 237 3,804 82 (59) 15 (18) (22) (104) 897 205 4,801 4,564 3,535 +26%

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

FY 18 Finance & lending Trade finance

  • Inv. mgt.

& brokerage Credit cards Others Exchange Income Investment- related income Other

  • perating

expenses FY 19

FY 1 19 F Fee a and nd ot

  • ther I

Inc ncom

  • me Movement

nt (S (SARm Rmn) n)

Fee & Other Income

Fee and other income grew by 26% YoY due to higher investment income and lower other operating expenses

13

Fees ees fro rom Banking S Serv ervices ces

  • SAR 2mn (-0%)

Do Domest stic Int Interna rnational.

slide-14
SLIDE 14

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Operating Expenses

Digitization, productivity enhancement and

  • ptimization delivered further expense savings

14

Do Domest stic Int Interna rnational

34.1% 32.2% 32.5% 32.1% 30.7% 31.6% 30.1% 30.8% 30.6% 29.3% FY 18 1Q 19 1H 19 9M 19 FY 19

Cos

  • st to I
  • Inc

ncom

  • me Ra

Ratio (Y

  • (YTD

TD %)

Group (%) Excluding International (%) 6,446 59 (371) 259 (62) 6,331 5,604 727 5,506 940

  • 2%
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

FY 18 Employee- related Rent & premises Deprecia- tion & amorti- zation Other G&A FY 19

FY 1 Y 19 Op Oper erating Ex Expen enses es Movemen ement (S (SARm Rmn) n)

Guida danc nce < 34%

slide-15
SLIDE 15

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

51 (3) 9 (3) 3 (1) (5) 51 +0 bps

  • 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40

FY 18 Impairments Recoveries & Other Impairments Recoveries & Other Other International FY 19

Movement i nt in n Cos

  • st of
  • f Ri

Risk (b (bps)

Cost of Risk for Financing

Overall stability in cost of risk

Guida danc nce 60 - 80 bps

Corp rpora rate te

  • 8 bps

Reta etail +6 bps

15

0.5% 0.5% FY 18 1Q 19 1H 19 9M 19 FY 19

Gro roup

0.3% 0.4% FY 18 1Q 19 1H 19 9M 19 FY 19

Retail ail

0.6% 0.4%

(0)

FY 18 1Q 19 1H 19 9M 19 FY 19

Cor Corpor

  • rate

1.5% 2.2% FY 18 1Q 19 1H 19 9M 19 FY 19

Internat atio ional al

slide-16
SLIDE 16

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

5,247 (54) (316) 452 5,329 +2%

  • 1,000
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

4Q 18 Retail Corporate International 4Q 19

Movement i nt in n NPL PLs (S (SARm Rmn) n)

Credit Quality

Credit Quality remains stable, albeit impacted by International segment

Domesti estic

  • SAR 370mn (-9%)

16

142% 138% 1.9% 1.8%

120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% 180% 190% 200%

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Gro roup

264% 290% 0.6% 0.5%

200% 250% 300% 350% 400%

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Retail ail

136% 151% 2.5% 2.3%

125% 130% 135% 140% 145% 150% 155%

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Corporat ate

90% 62% 5.5% 8.2%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Int nterna nationa

  • nal

NPL Ratio NPL Coverage

slide-17
SLIDE 17

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Capital

Capital position comfortably above regulatory minima

17

16.6% 16.5% 16.0% 15.4% 16.2% 18.5% 18.4% 17.8% 17.2% 18.0% 20.6% 19.3% 18.7% 18.0% 18.7% 4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Capit apital al Rat atio ios ( (%)

CET1 ratio T1 ratio TC ratio

T1 G Guida danc nce 16% - 18%

74.3 11.4 (0.4) (6.6) (0.5) (5.0) 73.2

  • 2%
  • 20.0
40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0

FY 18 Net Income Tier 1 Sukuk cost Dividends T2 Sukuk Other FY 19

Movement i nt in n Tot

  • tal C

Capital (S (SARb Rbn) n)

360.2 25.5 1.0 3.7 390.3 +8%

  • 50.0
100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0

FY 18 Credit risk Operational risk Market risk FY 19

Movement i nt in n RW RWA (S (SARb Rbn) n)

slide-18
SLIDE 18

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

* Headline ratio, which does not equate to SAMA regulatory LDR ratio

Liquidity

Strong and stable liquidity profile maintained

18

320 319 330 334 343 250 256 263 271 275 128.0% 124.0% 125.5% 123.2% 124.4%

  • 100
200 300 400 500 600 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

NSF NSFR R Ratio (%) (%)

Available stable funding (SARbn) Required stable funding (SARbn) NSFR 97 98 92 92 99 55 53 50 53 59 176.0% 183.9% 185.5% 173.2% 168.9%

(5) 15 35 55 75 95 115 135 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

LCR Ra R Ratio (%)

HQLA (SARbn) Net cash outflows (SARbn) LCR 83.2% 86.8% 84.4% 82.4% 79.9%

1 1 1 1 1

4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

LD LDR R Ra Ratio* ( (%)

13.5% 13.6% 13.2% 12.6% 12.8% 4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Basel el III L Lev ever erage e Ratio (%)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Strategic Enablers

Dig igit ital Pr Product uctivity

Accelerat ate d digital al tran ansformat ation Inc Incre rease Opera rationa nal Efficienc ncy

  • Digital sales
  • Advanced analytics
  • Lean distribution
  • Robotics & AI

Funding

Cu Curre rrent t Acco ccoun unts Wh Whole lesale le Fund nding ng

Grow C Current Accou

  • unts

Expand nd Fundi nding ng Opt Options

  • Digital & physical

distribution

  • Cash management
  • Customer coverage

models

  • Programs across

maturity and seniority spectrums

  • Mix and cost
  • ptimization

2020 Strategy Overview

19

Strategic agenda for 2020 positions NCB for continued growth

Asset Deployment

Reta tail Cor

  • rpor
  • rat

ate Treasur sury Subsid idia iarie ies

Grow M Mort rtga gage ges Im Impro rove R Returns rns Sustain Inv n Investment nt Retur urns s Grow V Value Cont ntri ribu bution

  • Sales channels
  • Digitization
  • Mega financing
  • SME
  • Transaction banking
  • Recurring revenues
  • Portfolio liquidity &

quality

  • Key business lines
  • Efficiency &

productivity

slide-20
SLIDE 20

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

2020 Guidance

20

Economic outlook provides opportunities

Macro-Economic Outlook

202 020 O 0 Outloo

  • ok

Oil Pr Price ce USD 60 / bbl US US Fed ed R Rates es Stable GDP G Gro rowth wth Real GDP +2.3% Bu Budget et

  • Revenue SAR 833 bn
  • Expenditure SAR 1.0 tr
  • Deficit 6.4% of GDP

Inflat ation

  • n

+2.0%

Financial Guidance

FY 2 201 019 9 Repor

  • rted

202 020 G 0 Guidan ance Financing G Gro rowth wth +6% 10 - 12% NSC NSCI M Margi gin 3.77% 3.60% - 3.80% Cost st t to I Inco come me 30.7% Below 32% Cos

  • st of
  • f Ri

Risk 0.51% 0.6% - 0.8% Tie ier 1 1 CAR AR 18.0% 16% - 18%

slide-21
SLIDE 21

Q&A SESSION

4Q & FY 2019 Results

slide-22
SLIDE 22

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

4Q & FY 2019 Results

slide-23
SLIDE 23

NCB Investor Relations | 4Q 2019 Earnings Presentation

Cont ntact ct U Us

The National Commercial Bank P.O. Box 3555 21481 Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

  • Mr. Abdulbadie Alyafi

Head Of Investor Relations +966 12 646 3988 investorrelations@alahli.com

More

  • re I

Inform formation

  • n

Visit: http://www.alahli.com/en-us/Investor_Relation to access NCB’s current and previous Investor Publications including:

  • Financial statements
  • Earnings releases
  • Investor presentations
  • Financial data packs (in Excel)

NCB Contacts

NCB welcomes your feedback and inquiries

23