EARNINGS RESULTS
FIRST QUARTER 2017
EARNINGS RESULTS FIRST QUARTER 2017 Cautionary Language This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
EARNINGS RESULTS FIRST QUARTER 2017 Cautionary Language This presentation contains statements, estimates and projections which are forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended).
FIRST QUARTER 2017
Cautionary Language
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This presentation contains statements, estimates and projections which are forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). Statements that are not historical, are forward-looking, and include our operational and strategic plans; estimates of coal and gas reserves and resources; the projected timing and rates of return of future investments; and projections and estimates of future production, revenues, income and capital spending. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements, plans, estimates and projections. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of future actual results. Factors that could cause future actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements include risks, contingencies and uncertainties that relate to, among other matters, the following: we may not receive the prices we expect to receive for our natural gas, natural gas liquids, and coal, including due to
failures, geological conditions, and higher than expected costs for equipment, supplies, services and labor, including with respect to third-party contractors; we may not achieve the efficiencies we expect to realize in our drilling and completion operations, and as a result, our projected cost savings may not be fully realized; our participation in joint ventures may restrict
Energy to satisfy liabilities it acquired from us, or failure to perform its obligations under various arrangements, which we guaranteed, could materially or adversely affect our results of
and may result in economic penalties to us or permit the customer to terminate the contract; the majority of our common units in CNX Coal Resources LP are subordinated, and we may not receive related distributions; there is no assurance that the potential dropdowns, spin-off or sale of the coal business will occur, or if it does occur that we will be able to negotiate favorable terms; and other factors, many of which are beyond our control. Additional factors are described in detail under the captions "Forward Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors" in CONSOL Energy Inc.’s annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2016 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), as updated by any subsequent quarterly reports
not to rely on them unduly. Currently, the SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible oil and gas reserves that a company anticipates as of a given date to be economically and legally producible and deliverable by application of development projects to known accumulations. We may use certain terms in this presentation, such as EUR (estimated ultimate recovery), unproved reserves and total resource potential, that the SEC's rules strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. We caution you that the SEC views such estimates as inherently unreliable and these estimates may be misleading to investors unless the investor is an expert in the natural gas industry. These measures are by their nature more speculative than estimates of reserves prepared in accordance with SEC definitions and guidelines and accordingly are less certain. We also note that the SEC strictly prohibits us from aggregating proved, probable and possible reserves in filings with the SEC due to the different levels of certainty associated with each reserve category. Except for proved reserve data, the information included in this presentation is based on a summary review of the title to the gas rights we hold. As is customary in the gas industry, prior to the commencement of natural gas drilling operations on our properties, we conduct a thorough title examination and perform curative work with respect to significant defects. We are typically responsible for curing any title defects at our expense. As a result of our title review or otherwise, we may be required to acquire property rights from third parties at our expense in order to effectively drill and produce the gas rights we control and third parties may participate in the wells we drill, thereby reducing our working interest in those wells. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy securities of CONSOL Energy Inc. or CNX Coal Resources LP.
Q1 2017 Highlights
Free Cash Flow Continue to expect annual production growth and free cash flow generation Production Raising 2017 and 2018 production guidance based on improved cycle times and optimized type curves EBITDA Raising 2017 EBITDA guidance by 7% Debt Repurchased approximately $100 million of debt in Q1 2017; have paid down ~$1.3 billion since 2015 when total debt peaked at ~$3.7 billion Leverage Ratio Expect to reach our target leverage ratios quicker than our 4Q16 forecast
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Operations: E&P Results Summary
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(3) Adjusted earnings before income tax for the E&P Division of $19.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2017 is calculated as GAAP loss before income tax of $93.5 million plus total pre-tax adjustments of $113.4 million. The $113.4 million adjustment is a $24.6 million pre-tax gain related to the unrealized gain on commodity derivative instruments, a pre-tax loss of $137.9 million related to the impairment of exploration and production assets and a pre-tax loss of $0.1 million related to severance expense.
Mcfe in the year-earlier quarter, or an 11% improvement
in the year-earlier quarter, or a 21% impairment
(1) Average Sales Prices for 1Q2017, 1Q2016, and 4Q2016 include gains/(loss) on commodity derivative instruments (cash settlements) of ($0.55), $0.98, and $0.46, respectively. (2) Average Costs for 1Q2017, 1Q2016, and 4Q2016 include DD&A of $1.01, $1.08, and $1.05, respectively.
1Q 2017(1) 1Q 2016 Y/Y Change 1Q 2017(1) 4Q 2016 Q/Q Change Average Sales Price(1) ($/Mcfe) $2.85 $2.73 $0.12 $2.85 $2.77 $0.08 Total Production Costs(2) ($/Mcfe) $2.32 $2.41 ($0.09) $2.32 $2.27 $0.05 Sales Volumes (Bcfe) 95.0 97.5 (2.5) 95.0 101.3 (6.3) Sales Volumes (Bcfe) by Category Marcellus 58.0 51.2 6.8 58.0 56.5 1.5 Utica 15.3 22.9 (7.6) 15.3 22.2 (6.9) CBM 16.7 17.6 (0.9) 16.7 17.4 (0.7) Other 5.0 5.8 (0.8) 5.0 5.2 (0.2)
Operations: Operations Summary
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Production Efficiency Highlights
$6.1 million, improving unit costs by $0.05/Mcfe Y/Y
production surveillance yielded a 72% Y/Y reduction in lost volume due to downtime, driving production improvements of ~1.2 Bcfe and incremental revenue of $3.8 million
production facilities optimization resulted in a ~3% reduction in CAPEX and a five-day reduction in installation cycle time
SWPA SWPA WV OH Marcellus Upper Devonian Marcellus Dry Utica TOTAL Horizontal Rigs 1
Drilled 2
Completed 5
Turned In Line (TIL) 5 1
9,417 10,663
Q1 2017 Summary TD TIL TD TIL Marcellus 8 31 33-41 15-20 Utica 17 26 26-31 21-25 Upper Devonian
CBM 63 63 20-25 25-30 TOTAL ex. CBM 25 60 59-72 36-45 2017 2018
Two-Year TIL Schedule
remains unchanged:
Operations: Drilling Cycle Time Efficiencies
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Utica
improved 23% compared to 2016 helping to reduce cost per lateral foot by 11%
non-productive time was driven by:
consultants
Marcellus
with an average lateral length of 9,141 ft in SWPA in 5.85 days each
record of 7,380’ drilled in a 24 hour period
Monroe County Drilling Cost Savings
1.3 1.0 $392 $347 $250 $270 $290 $310 $330 $350 $370 $390 $410 $430 $450 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 FY2016 1Q2017 $/Lateral Foot Days/1000’ LL Drilled Days/1000' LL Monroe $/Lateral Foot
Operations: Completions Cycle Time Efficiencies
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Marcellus
Efficiency
56% compared to 2016
improvement in Q1 2017 compared to 2016
times were driven by:
KPIs rather than lowest cost
Cost
cost of $348/lateral foot, which was flat with 2016 as operational efficiencies offset increased vendor costs
Marcellus Frac Efficiency
800 1,245 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1Q16 1Q17 Feet per Day Lateral Feet/Day - Stimulated
Operations: Revised Type Curves
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Monroe County, OH – Dry Utica
performance driving accelerated production forecast, but EUR unchanged
spacing
proppant type, size, and loading
Morris Field, SWPA – Marcellus
to accelerated production, but EUR remains the same
enhance flowback and early time production
diversion techniques, and proppant loading
Revised Type Curve Shape vs. Prior Plan Revised Type Curve Shape vs. Prior Plan
Operations: Gaut 4IH Update – as of Q1 2017 End
9 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 9/23/15 1/1/16 4/10/16 7/19/16 10/27/16 2/4/17 5/15/17 Casing Pressure (psi) Flow Rate (Mcf/d) Flow Rate MCf/Day Casing Pressure
Hit line pressure: 2/6/2017 Tubing installed: 2/22/2017
Testing period
Gaut 4IH IP: 61.4 MMcf/d Initial SICP: 9,921 psig Lateral Length: 5,808’ EUR: 3.5 Bcf/1,000’ lateral
Initial SICP: 9,921 psig EUR: 3.5 Bcf/1,000’ lateral
Marketing: Q1 2017 E&P Marketing Highlights
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customers on East Tennessee
Dth/day of FT renewals
unutilized TCO firm transportation capacity
367,000 barrels in Q1 and, on an equivalent basis, yielded a $1.15 per MMBtu premium over CONSOL’s residue natural gas alternative
realization is up 30% from Q4 2016
the impact of hedging
Natural Gas Price Reconciliation
2017 2016 Q1 Q1 NYMEX Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) $3.32 $2.09 Average Differential (0.30) (0.36) BTU Conversion (MMBtu/Mcf)* 0.16 0.10 (Loss)/Gain on Commodity Instruments-Cash Settlement (0.55) 0.98 Realized Gas Price per Mcf $2.63 $2.81 * Conversion Factor 1.05 1.06
Marketing: Gas Hedges
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(1) Hedge positions as of 4/18/2017. 2017 includes actual settlements of 97.8 Bcf. 2021 excludes 2.6 Bcf of physical basis sales not matched with NYMEX hedges. (2) Includes the impact of NYMEX, index and basis-only hedges as well as physical sales agreements. (3) Based on midpoint of total production guidance of 420-440 Bcfe in 2017E.
production volumes hedged(3)
147 Bcf (2018-2021)
254 Bcf (2017-2021)
Hedge Volumes and Pricing Q2 2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NYMEX Only Hedges Volumes (Bcf) 68.0 279.9 276.4 194.9 117.2 17.2 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $3.18 $3.17 $3.17 $3.07 $3.11 $3.03 Index Hedges and Contracts Volumes (Bcf) 8.1 32.5 6.8 12.8 7.7 7.8 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $3.19 $3.18 $2.61 $2.51 $2.46 $2.41 Total Volumes Hedged (Bcf)(1) 76.1 312.4 283.2 207.7 124.9 25.0 NYMEX + Basis (fully-covered volumes)(2) Volumes (Bcf) 71.1 307.2 253.8 170.0 109.8 25.0 Average Prices ($/Mcf) $2.59 $2.61 $2.86 $2.81 $2.85 $2.63 NYMEX Only Hedges Exposed to Basis Volumes (Bcf) 5.0 5.2 29.4 37.7 15.1 - Average Prices ($/Mcf) $3.18 $3.17 $3.17 $3.07 $3.11 - Total Volumes Hedged (Bcf)(1) 76.1 312.4 283.2 207.7 124.9 25.0
Gas Hedges 2017-2021
307.2 253.8 170.0 109.8 25.0 5.2 29.4 37.7 15.1
100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Gas Volumes Hedged (Bcf) NYMEX + Basis (2) NYMEX Only Hedges Exposed to Basis
Marketing: Gas Hedges – Continued
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(1) Hedge positions as of 4/18/2017. Physical Fixed Basis and Fixed Price Sales(1) Q2 2017 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Physical Fixed Basis Sales Volumes (Bcf) 13.1 58.7 88.5 69.8 41.0 9.5 Average Basis Prices ($/Mcf) ($0.11) $0.01 $0.15 $0.10 $0.06 $(0.28) Physical Fixed Price Sales Volumes (Bcf) 0.9 3.4 6.8 12.8 7.7 7.8 Average Prices ($/Mcf): NYMEX portion $3.70 $3.68 $3.22 $3.09 $3.06 $3.01 Basis portion $(1.13) $(1.13) $(0.61) $(0.58) $(0.60) $(0.60) $2.57 $2.55 $2.61 $2.51 $2.46 $2.41
2017 2018
Hedge Position
(Outer ring = NYMEX; Inner ring = Basis)
in illiquid markets
basis fully covers the majority of 2017 and 2018 expected production
Marketing: Natural Gas Sales Market Mix
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MIDWEST TETCO M3 TETCO M2 EAST TENNESEE TETCO ELA TETCO WLA TCO POOL DOMINION SOUTH Natural Gas Sales Market Mix 2017E 2018E Columbia (TCO) 11% 9% TETCO (M2) 42% 44% TETCO (M3) 11% 8% Dominion (DTI) 12% 11% East Tennessee 12% 14% TETCO ELA & WLA 8% 6% Midwest (Michcon) 4% 8% 100% 100%
$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 Q1 2017 Ethane $/gal
CNX Netback Appalachian Gas Alternative
Q1 2017 Direct Ethane Sales Comparison
Marketing: Liquids Realizations
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Natural Gas Liquids, Oil, and Condensate
increased 39% to $29.72 per Bbl in Q1 2017, from $21.34 per Bbl in Q4 2016(1) (+133% Y/Y)
2017 production volumes, 16% of E&P revenue, and 6% of total company revenue(1)
Average Price Realization ($ per Bbl)(1)
Gas $ High Gas $ Low NGL $ Low NGL $ High Avoid Processing Optimize Send to Processing Optimize
22 Bcf Wet Gas Flexibility
(1) Excludes propane hedging impact. (2) Net of basis and de-ethanization fees.
2017 2016 Q1 Q1 NGLs $29.16 $12.30 Oil 44.40 30.84 Condensate 33.84 14.64
(2)
Marketing: Market Currently Undersupplied
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0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Population Weighted HDDs (thousands) Week
Cumulative Nationwide Population Weighted Heating Degree Days
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Avg
0.00 500.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Cumulative Withdrawal (Bcf) Week
Cumulative Lower 48 Storage Withdrawal
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 Avg
Yet, storage withdrawals near average levels
One of the lowest levels of heating demand recently
Source: NOAA National Weather Service – Climate Prediction Center Source: EIA
Nov.-Mar. Nov.-Mar.
Marketing: Pipeline Projects will Make a Difference
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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Regional Export Capacity (Bcf/d) Year End
Regional Export by Delivery Market
Southwest Midwest Southeast Canada ACP Atlantic Sunrise Atlantic Sunrise MVP NEXUS NEXUS Rover Rover 5 10 15 20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Regional Export Capacity (Bcf/d) Year End
Regional Export by Project
Forecast Forecast
coming online this year and will materially improve export capacity away from Appalachia
Source: EIA Source: EIA
New Pipeline Projects Changing the Landscape
Marketing: But When Will Supply Respond?
17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
200 300 400 500 600 Production (Bcf/d) Rig Count
Permian Region Production and Rig Count
Rig count Total production
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Production (Bcf/d) Rig Count
Marcellus Region Production and Rig Count
Rig count Actuals Prediction
additional capacity and balance the market
Source: EIA Source: EIA, CNX analysis
Historically, it appears 300+ rigs were required to grow Permian gas production We’ve not yet seen this dip in rig numbers manifest itself in slowed production growth Despite recent efficiency gains, Marcellus production will not be ready to fill the new pipelines due to the recent low rig counts
Finance: Q1 2017 Results
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$0.17 per diluted share(1); on a GAAP basis, a net loss attributable to CONSOL Energy shareholders of $39 million or ($0.17) per diluted share
for Sale
(1) Income tax effect of Total Pre-tax Adjustments was $40,884 and $10,310 for the three months ended March 31, 2017 and March 31, 2016, respectively. Adjusted net income attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders for the three months ended March 31, 2017 is calculated as GAAP net loss attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders of $38,966 plus total pre-tax adjustments from the table on slide 36 of $117,949, less the associated tax expense of $40,884 equals the adjusted net income attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders of $38,099. Note: The terms "adjusted net income attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders," "EBITDA from continuing operations," and "adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations" are non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to the GAAP net income below, under the caption “Non-GAAP Reconciliation."
Q1 2017 Summary ($ in millions, except per share data) 1Q 2017 1Q 2016 Y/Y Change 1Q 2017 4Q 2016 Q/Q Change Net (Loss) Income Attributable to CNX Shareholders ($39) ($98) $59 ($39) ($306) $267 (Loss) Earnings per Diluted Share ($0.17) ($0.43) $0.26 ($0.17) ($1.33) $1.16 Revenue and Other Income from Continuing Operations $699 $533 $166 $699 $462 $237 Net Cash Provided by Continuing Operating Activities $205 $124 $81 $205 $87 $118 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to Continuing Operations $217 $181 $36 $217 $205 $12
Finance: Q1 2017 Review
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Source: Company filings. Note: Numbers may not sum and may differ slightly from totals and financial statements due to rounding. The terms "adjusted net income attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders," "EBITDA from continuing operations," and "adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations" are non- GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to the GAAP net income below, under the caption “Non-GAAP Reconciliation."
Net Increase/(Decrease) in Cash
in Q1 2016
Q1 2017 Cash Flow Summary (including Discontinued Operations) ($ in millions) 1Q 2017 1Q 2016 Y/Y Change 1Q 2017 4Q 2016 Q/Q Change Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $205 $130 $75 $205 $83 $122 Capital Expenditures ($113) ($78) ($35) ($113) ($47) ($66) Proceeds from Asset Sales $19 $404 ($385) $19 $21 (2) Other Investing $6 ($6) $12 $6 $79 ($73) Proceeds from Noble Exchange Agreement
($213) (Payments on) / Proceeds from Short-Term Debt & Misc. Borrowings ($3) ($103) $100 ($3) ($356) $353 (Payments on) / Proceeds from Long-Term Notes ($98)
($98)
Dividends Paid
$2
($15) $9 ($24) ($15) ($13) ($2) Net (Decrease) / Increase in Cash $1 $354 ($353) $1 ($20) $21
Finance: Strong Liquidity Position of ~$1.7 Billion
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$2.0 billion Revolving Credit Facility
(1) Cash and cash equivalents on CNX’s consolidated balance sheet was $61 million as of 3/31/2017, $6 million of which was CNXC’s and consolidated in CNX’s financial statements per US GAAP accounting. (2) Revolving credit facility as of 3/31/2017.
March 31, 2017 ($ in millions) Amount/ Capacity Amount Drawn Letters
Amount Available Cash and Cash Equivalents(1) $55
Revolving Credit Facility(2) $2,000 $0 $333 $1,667 Total $2,055 $0 $333 $1,722 Maintenance Covenants Limit
2017 CONSOL Energy Revolver: Minimum Interest Coverage Ratio < 2.5 to 1.0 3.9 to 1.0 Minimum Current Ratio < 1.0 to 1.0 2.4 to 1.0
Finance: Debt and Liquidity Profile
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Note: Some numbers may not match exactly to financial statements due to rounding. (1) The 2022 and 2023 senior notes includes $4 million and $5 million of unamortized bond premium / discount, which will be amortized over the life of the notes, respectively. (5) Number of MLP units owned by CNX as of 3/31/2017 and unit prices as of market close on 4/21/2017. (6) CNX Coal Resources liquidity data is as of 3/31/2017 and CONE Midstream data is as of 12/31/2016. (7) Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to CNX Shareholders is a non-GAAP financial measure and the reconciliation is provided in the Appendix. Bank methodology LTM EBITDA equals LTM Adjusted EBITDA of $727 million less the $57 million of CNXC EBITDA net of cash distributions attributable to CNX, plus coal contract buyout of $6 million, less $3 million of severance payments, plus $10 million of other net adjustments. For a reconciliation of CNXC’s EBITDA please see the Company’s form 10Q’s and 10K’s. Bank net debt of $2.688 billion equals debt of $2.695 billion, less $55 million cash on hand excluding CNXC’s cash, less $197 million of CNXC revolver debt, less $3 million of advance mining royalties, plus $248 million of net letters of credit related to firm transportation obligations, mining equipment leases, and insurance policies. (2) Total Debt of $2.695 billion excludes total unamortized debt issuance costs of $25 million. (3) Net Debt equals Total Debt less Cash and Cash Equivalents. (4) As of 3/31/2017, CNX had approximately $333 million of outstanding letters of credit under its revolving credit facility, leaving approximately $1,667 million of availability. CNXC had $197 million outstanding on its revolving credit facility leaving approximately $203 million of availability. CNX Owned LP Units(5) Unit Price(5) Market Value CNX Coal Resources LP (CNXC:NYSE) 16.6 $15.20 $252 CONE Midstream Partners LP (CNNX:NYSE) 21.7 $21.25 $461 Total Equity Value of Ownership Interests in Affiliated Public MLPs $713 Liquidity of Affiliated MLPs Total Facility Capacity Outstanding Balance Available Capacity Cash Total Liquidity CNX Coal Resources LP (6) $400 $197 $203 $6 $209 CONE Midstream Partners LP (6) $250 $167 $83 $6 $89 Leverage Ratio 3/31/2017 LTM Bank EBITDA Attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders (7) $683 LTM Bank Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA (7) 3.9x Equity Value of Ownership in Affiliated Public MLPs CNX Consolidated CNXC: 100% CNX Attributable Capitalization and Liquidity 3/31/2017 3/31/2017 3/31/2017 Capitalization Cash and Cash Equivalents $61 $6 $55 Revolving Credit Facility Balance 197 197
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Total Secured Debt $244 $197 $47 8.25% Senior Notes due 2020 $74
6.375% Senior Notes due 2021 21
5.875% Senior Notes due 2022 (1) 1,754
8.0% Senior Notes due 2023 (1) 495
Baltimore 5.75% Revenue Bonds due 2025 103
Miscellaneous Debt 4
Total Debt (2) $2,695 $197 $2,498 Net Debt (3) $2,634 $191 $2,443 Stockholders’ Equity $3,906 $142 $3,764 Total Capitalization $6,601 $339 $6,262 Liquidity Cash and Cash Equivalents $61 $6 $55 Revolving Credit Facility Capacity (4) 1,870 203 1,667 Total Liquidity $1,931 $209 $1,722
2.2 1.4 4.4 2.0 1.2 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 2016 2017E 2018E 4Q16 Forecast Current Forecast
Finance: Leverage Ratio and Liquidity Projection
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(1) Leverage ratio equals expected year-end net debt divided by expected EBITDA. CONSOL Energy is unable to provide a reconciliation of projected EBITDA to projected operating income, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items. (2) Excludes letters of credit of $333 million. Note: Assumes $400-$600 million in asset sales in 2017 and a base case 20% CNXC drop in 2018. Forecasts based on strip pricing for open volumes as of 4/4/2017.
additional 0.2x each since the end of 4Q16
Leverage Ratio 2016-2018E(1) Liquidity 2016-2018E
Asset Sales Organic
FCF Sources 2017E-2018E
1.7 2.2 2.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2016 2017E 2018E $ in billions
(2) (2)
Finance: Legacy Liabilities
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Significant legacy liability reductions over past three years:
substantial reduction in legacy liabilities in 2016
Balance Sheet Liability Long-Term Liability Guidance 3/31/2017 FY 2017E FY 2018E LTD $19 WC 79 CWP 118 OPEB 698 Salary Retirement/Pension 111 Asset Retirement Obligations 238 Total Legacy Liabilities $1,263 Total Cash Servicing Cost $19 $74 - $79 $70 - $75 EBITDA Impact
($12)
($57 - $62) ($57 - $62)
Note: 3/31/17 liability balance includes approximately $22 million and $38 million in employee-related and environmental liabilities associated with Pennsylvania Mining Operation (PAMC), respectively. Future EBITDA loss and cash servicing costs related to these liabilities will run through the PAMC segment financial detail and therefore the cash servicing costs and EBITDA loss related to these liabilities are excluded from the 2017 & 2018 forecast presented above. For FY 2017, the cash servicing costs associated with PAMC long-term liabilities are forecasted to approximate $8 million, while the EBITDA loss associated thereto is forecasted to approximate $12 million. Excludes gas well closing.
$4,187 $1,703 $1,497 $1,362 $1,267 $1,263 $1,258 $365 $144 $139 $133 $92 $77 $77 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2017 2017E Annual Cash Servicing Costs ($ in Millions) Legacy Liabilities ($ in millions) Total Legacy Liabilities Total Annual Legacy Liabilities Cash Servicing Cost
Finance: Segment Guidance
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Note: Guidance as of 5/2/2017, based on strip pricing as of 4/4/2017. (1) Excludes stock-based compensation. (2) Includes Idle Rig Charges, Unutilized Firm Transportation Expense (Net Of 3rd Party Revenue), Land Rentals, Lease Expiration Costs, Misc. Gas, and Exploration Expense.
E&P Segment Guidance 2017E 2018E Production Volumes: Natural Gas (Bcf) 380-400 NGLs (MBbls) 6,000-7,000 Oil (MBbls) 45-50 Condensate (MBbls) 600-700 Total Production (Bcfe) 420-440 490-520 % Liquids 9%-11% 7%-12% Open Natural Gas Basis Differential to NYMEX ($/Mcf) ($0.31) ($0.27) NGL Realized Price ($/Bbl) $20.40 $17.60 Condensate Realized Price % of WTI 70% 70% Oil Realized Price % of WTI 90% 90% Capital Expenditures ($ in millions): Drilling and Completions $465 Midstream $40 Land, Permitting and Other $50 Total E&P and Midstream CapEx $555 $600 Average per unit operating expenses ($/Mcfe): Lease Operating Expense $0.17-$0.21 Production, Ad Valorem, and Other Fees $0.07-$0.08 Transportation, Gathering and Compression $0.85-$0.90 Total Cash Production and Gathering Costs $1.09-$1.19 $0.98-$1.11 Other Expenses ($ in millions): Selling, General, and Administrative Costs(1) $70-$75 $65-$75 Other Corporate Expenses(2) $75-$80 $50-$60 PA Mining Operations – Consolidated 100% Basis 2017E Coal Sales Volumes: Total Coal Sales Volumes (millions of tons) 25.6-27.6 Total Committed Volumes (contracted and priced) 25.4 % Committed ~95% Capital Expenditures ($ in millions): Total Coal Capital Expenditures ($ in millions) $120-$136
per ton in 2017 and beyond
Finance: Raising 2017E EBITDA Guidance
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(1) Includes forecasted Earnings of Equity Affiliates of $40 million in 2017 associated with CNX's proportionate share of ownership in CONE Midstream. This income is reflected within Miscellaneous Other Income in the CNX Income Statement. Base plan assumes NYMEX as of 4/4/2017 of $3.40 per MMBtu + weighted average basis of ($0.29) per MMBtu on open volumes. Note: CONSOL Energy is unable to provide a reconciliation of projected EBITDA to projected operating income, the most comparable financial measure calculated in accordance with GAAP, due to the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items.
EBITDA Guidance by Segment – 2017E
($ in millions) E&P(1) PA Mining Operations Other Current Total (5/2/17) Prior Total (1/31/17) Earnings Before Interest, Taxes and DD&A (EBITDA) $705 $410 ($20) $1,095 $1,080 Adjustments: Unrealized (Gain)/Loss on Commodity Derivative Instruments (150)
(200) Stock-Based Compensation 20 10
30 Adjusted EBITDA $575 $420 ($20) $975 $910 Noncontrolling Interest
(45) Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to CNX $575 $370 ($20) $925 $865
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Operations: Acreage Position
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Note: Acreage numbers as of 2016 10-K ; PDPs as of 3/31/2017 (1)
undeveloped acreage, including both type curve guidance area and surrounding acreage.
SWPA WV CPA OH Total Upper Devonian Net Acres 111,500 157,000 35,500
Net Acres 103,000 62,000 234,500 13,500 413,000 Fee Acres 41,000 2,000 19,000 3,000 65,000
572 411 1,472 85 2,540 Net Producing Wells (PDPs) 196 34 60 1 291 Net Acres 151,500 181,000 229,000 121,500 683,000 Fee Acres 48,000 13,000 16,000 38,000 115,000
855 1,104 1,294 483 3,736 Gross Producing Wells (PDPs) 1
98 100 Utica Marcellus
Acreage Position and PDPs by Asset Region and Formation
Asset Region 1: Southwest Pennsylvania Overview
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Upper Devonian Shale
Marcellus Shale
next two years
Utica Shale
drilling and participation
(1) Average EUR represents the type curve guidance area depicted on the map. Note: Asset region type curve data and modeling inputs available at http://investors.consolenergy.com/events-and-presentations/events/2017.
64% Utica/Marcellus core over core acreage overlap
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 12 24 36 48
Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
7000' LL
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 12 24 36 48
Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
8500' LL
Southwest Pennsylvania Modeling Inputs and Economics
29
SWPA Marcellus Type Curve (2.7 Bcfe/1000') SWPA Utica Type Curve (3.1 Bcf/1000')
BTAX ROR % (3)
Realized Price 8,500' $2.00 39% $2.50 71% $3.00 109%
BTAX ROR % (3)
Realized Price 7,000' $2.00 19% $2.50 34% $3.00 52%
(1) Assuming 8,500 ft lateral @ 750 ft inter-lateral spacing, total undeveloped net locations in region (2) Assuming 7,000 ft lateral @ 1,100 ft inter-lateral spacing, total undeveloped net locations in region (3) Escalation not applied to gas pricing, capex, and opex Note: NRI excludes potential partial amendments to existing leases and adverse or third party acreage within drilling units.
Assumptions IP (MMcfe/d) 19.0 Decline 69% B-factor 1.65 EUR/1000’ (Bcfe) 2.7 Lateral Length 8,500’ Wells Per Pad 6 Capital ($ millions) $7.1 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $730 LOE ($/Mcfe) $0.12 Gathering ($/Mcfe) $0.48 Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcfe) 22.6 BTU 1,130 Assumptions IP (MMcf/d) 23.1 Decline 67% B-factor 1.20 EUR/1000’ (Bcf) 3.1 Lateral Length 7,000’ Wells Per Pad 5 Capital ($ millions) $13.2 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $500 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.05 Gathering ($/Mcf) $0.23 Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 100% / 89% Net Locations(1) ~572 Wells Online (3/31/17) 196
104 Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcf) 21.4 BTU 1,010 Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 100% / 89% Net Locations(2) ~855 Wells Online (3/31/17) 1
Asset Region 2: West Virginia Overview
30
Marcellus Shale
inventory: sunk capital results in improved IRR
Utica Shale
participation
(1) Average EUR represents the type curve guidance area depicted on the map Note: “CNX Utica Resource Potential” as depicted on the map represents an additional 220,000 acres of Utica resource potential in WV not included in company totals Note: Asset region type curve data and modeling inputs available at http://investors.consolenergy.com/events-and-presentations/events/2017.
30% Utica/Marcellus acreage overlap
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 12 24 36 48
NGL/CND Production (BBL/month) Gross Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
Gas NGL CND 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 12 24 36 48
Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
6500' LL
BTAX ROR % (4)
Realized Price 6,500' $2.00 10% $2.50 20% $3.00 31%
West Virginia Modeling Inputs and Economics
31
WV Marcellus Type Curve (2.9 Bcfe/1000')
BTAX ROR % (4)
Realized Price 8,000' $2.00 37% $2.50 56% $3.00 76%
(1) Assuming 8,000 ft lateral @ 750 ft inter-lateral spacing, total undeveloped net locations in TC guidance area (2) Assuming 6,500 ft lateral @ 1,100 ft inter-lateral spacing, total undeveloped net locations in region (3) See NGL and CND assumptions on type curve data file located at www.consolenergy.com (4) Escalation not applied to gas pricing, capex, and opex Note: NRI excludes potential partial amendments to existing leases and adverse or third party acreage within drilling units.
WV Utica Type Curve (2.8 Bcf/1000')
Assumptions IP (MMcf/d) 14.0 Decline 69% B-factor 1.65 EUR/1000’ (Bcfe) 2.9 Lateral Length 8,000' Wells Per Pad 6 NGL Yield (Bbl/MMcf)(3) 74.1 CND Yield (Bbl/MMcf)(3) 12.8 Capital ($ millions) $6.6 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $730 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.12 Gathering/Processing ($/Mcf) $0.93 NGL OpEx ($/Bbl) $5.00 CND OpEx ($/Bbl) $5.00 Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcfe) 22.8 BTU 1,260 Assumptions IP (MMcf/d) 15.3 Decline 58% B-factor 1.10 EUR/1000’ (Bcf) 2.8 Lateral Length 6,500' Wells Per Pad 3 Capital ($ millions) $12.7 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $500 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.05 Gathering ($/Mcf) $0.23 Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcf) 17.9 BTU 1,015 Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 100% / 88% Net Locations(2) ~1,104 Wells Online (3/31/17)
WI / NRI (%) 100% / 86% Net Locations(1) ~151 Wells Online (3/31/17) 34
156
Asset Region 3: Central Pennsylvania Overview
32
Marcellus Shale
the entire region is 1.5 Bcf
in conjunction with Utica
Utica Shale
2017 and 2018
(1) Average EUR represents the type curve guidance area depicted on the map, which is approximately 111,000 acres in CPA Note: “CNX Utica Resource Potential” as depicted on the map represents an additional 22,000 Utica resource potential in CPA not included in company totals Note: Asset region type curve data and modeling inputs available at http://investors.consolenergy.com/events-and-presentations/events/2017.
96% Utica/Marcellus acreage overlap
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 12 24 36 48
Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
9000' LL
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 1,000,000 12 24 36 48
Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
7000' LL
Central Pennsylvania Modeling Inputs and Economics
33
CPA Marcellus Type Curve (1.8 Bcf/1000')
BTAX ROR % (3)
Realized Price 9,000' $2.00 23% $2.50 39% $3.00 62%
CPA Utica Type Curve (3.5 Bcf/1000')
(1) Assuming 9,000 ft lateral @ 750 ft inter-lateral spacing, total undeveloped net locations in region (2) Assuming 7,000 ft lateral @ 1,100 ft inter-lateral spacing, total undeveloped net locations in region (3) Escalation not applied to gas pricing, capex, and opex (4) IP held flat for 14 months at 21.6 MMcf/d Note: NRI excludes potential partial amendments to existing leases and adverse or third party acreage within drilling units.
BTAX ROR % (3)
Realized Price 7,000' $2.00 63% $2.50 107% $3.00 152% Assumptions IP (MMcf/d) 13.3 Decline 69% B-factor 1.65 EUR/1000’ (Bcf) 1.8 Lateral Length 9,000' Wells Per Pad 6 Capital ($ millions) $6.2 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $730 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.12 Gathering ($/Mcf) $0.32 Assumptions IP (MMcf/d)(4) 21.6 Decline 74% B-factor 1.20 EUR/1000’ (Bcf) 3.5 Lateral Length 7,000' Wells Per Pad 6 Capital ($ millions) $12.6 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $500 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.05 Gathering ($/Mcf) $0.23 Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcf) 24.8 BTU 1,010 Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 100% / 89% Net Locations(2) ~1,294 Wells Online (3/31/17) 1 Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcf) 15.8 BTU 1,000 Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 100% / 88% Net Locations(1) ~1,472 Wells Online (3/31/17) 60
130
Asset Region 4: Ohio Overview
34
Total Ohio Utica:
Utica Dry:
Monroe County
Utica Wet:
continued development
(1) Average EUR represents the type curve guidance area depicted on the map by a solid blue line (Utica Dry) (2) Average EUR represents the type curve guidance area depicted on the map by a dotted blue line (Utica Wet) Note: Asset region type curve data and modeling inputs available at http://investors.consolenergy.com/events-and-presentations/events/2017.
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 12 24 36 48
NGL/CND Production (BBL/month) Gross Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
Gas NGL CND 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 12 24 36 48
Gas Production (Mcf/month) Months After TIL
9000' LL
Ohio Modeling Inputs and Economics
35
OH Wet Utica Type Curve (2.1 Bcfe/1000') OH Dry Utica Type Curve (2.8 Bcf/1000')
BTAX ROR % (4)
Realized Price 8,000' $2.00 13% $2.50 27% $3.00 47%
BTAX ROR % (4)
Realized Price 9,000' $2.00 55% $2.50 90% $3.00 127% Assumptions IP (MMcf/d) 16.3 Decline 71% B-factor 1.40 EUR/1000’ (Bcfe) 2.1 Lateral Length 8,000’ Wells Per Pad 5 NGL Yield (Bbl/MMcf)(3) 32.6 CND Yield (Bbl/MMcf)(3) 4.0 Capital ($ millions) $7.6 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $1,371 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.29 Gathering/Processing ($/Mcf) $0.78 NGL OpEx ($/Bbl) $6.78 CND OpEx ($/Bbl) $6.25 Assumptions IP (MMcf/d) 20.4 Decline 56% B-factor 1.10 EUR/1000’ (Bcf) 2.8 Lateral Length 9,000’ Wells Per Pad 4 Capital ($ millions) $9.4 Fixed Cost ($/mo./well) $500 LOE ($/Mcf) $0.05 Gathering ($/Mcf) $0.21
(1) Assuming average 8,500 ft lateral @1,100’ spacing, total undeveloped net locations in region (2) Assuming 8,000 ft and 9,000 ft lateral @ 1,100’ spacing for Ohio Wet and Ohio Dry, respectively, total undeveloped net locations in TC guidance area (3) See NGL and CND assumptions on type curve data file located at www.consolenergy.com (4) Escalation not applied to gas pricing, capex, and opex Note: NRI excludes potential partial amendments to existing leases and adverse or third party acreage within drilling units.
OH Utica Total Net Locations(1) ~483 Wells Online (3/31/17) 98 Ohio Dry - Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcf) 25.0 BTU 1,060 Ohio Dry - Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 100% / 89% Net Locations(2) ~100 Wells Online (3/31/17) 4
187 Ohio Wet - Reserves Detail Gross EUR (Bcfe) 16.9 BTU 1,150 Ohio Wet - Interest / Net Locations WI / NRI (%) 50% / 45% Net Locations(2) ~159 Wells Online (3/31/17) 94
187
Non-GAAP Reconciliation: EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA
36
Source: Company filings. Note: Income tax effect of Total Pre-tax Adjustments was $40,884 and $10,310 for the three months ended March 31, 2017 and March 31, 2016, respectively. Adjusted net income attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders for the three months ended March 31, 2017 is calculated as GAAP net loss attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders of $38,966 plus total pre-tax adjustments from the above table of $117,949, less the associated tax expense of $40,884 equals the adjusted net income attributable to CONSOL Energy Shareholders of $38,099. (1) CONSOL Energy's Other Division includes expenses from various other corporate and diversified business unit activities including legacy liabilities costs and income tax expense that are not allocated to E&P or PA Mining Operations Divisions.
Three Months Ended March 31, 2017 2017 2017 2017 2016 ($ in thousands) E&P Division PA Mining Operations Division Other(1) Total Company Total Company Net (Loss) Income ($93,502) $61,015 ($1,015) ($33,502) ($96,458) Less: Loss from Discontinued Operations
Add: Interest Expense 621 2,297 41,515 44,433 49,865 Less: Interest Income
(1,543) (214) Add: Income Taxes
(53,789) (23,800) (Loss)/Earnings Before Interest & Taxes (EBIT) from Continuing Operations (92,881) 63,312 (14,832) (44,401) (17,440) Add: Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 95,348 42,301 11,104 148,753 154,988 Earnings/(Loss) Before Interest, Taxes and DD&A (EBITDA) from Continuing Operations $2,467 $105,613 ($3,728) $104,352 $137,548 Adjustments: Unrealized (Gain)/Loss on Commodity Derivative Instruments (24,640)
29,271 Impairment of E&P Properties 137,865
Severance Expense 162
$230 2,918 Other Transaction Fees
5,316
(822)
$113,387
$117,949 $44,825 Adjusted EBITDA from Contiuing Operations $115,854 $105,613 $834 $222,301 $182,373 Less: Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest
1,114 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to Continuing Operations $115,854 $100,149 $834 $216,837 $181,259
Non-GAAP Reconciliation: TTM EBIT, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA
37
Source: Company filings. Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended June 30, September 30, December 31, March 31, March 31, ($ in thousands) 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Net (Loss)/Income ($468,649) $27,593 ($301,634) ($33,502) ($776,192) Less: Loss from Discontinued Operations 234,605 34,975 (19,564)
Add: Interest Expense 47,427 47,317 46,867 44,433 186,044 Less: Interest Income (547) (214) (532) (1,543) (2,836) Add: Tax Valuation Allowance
Add: Income Taxes (100,856) 52,858 (84,990) (53,789) (186,777) (Loss)/Earnings Before Interest & Taxes (EBIT) from Continuing Operations (288,020) 162,529 (193,055) (44,401) (362,947) Add: Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization 135,220 151,712 156,583 148,753 592,268 Earnings/(Loss) Before Interest, Taxes and DD&A (EBITDA) from Continuing Operations ($152,800) $314,241 ($36,472) $104,352 $229,321 Adjustments: Unrealized Loss/(Gain) on Commodity Derivative Instruments 279,715 (159,555) 236,802 (24,640) 332,322 Impairment of E&P Properties
137,865 Severance Expense 1,451 952 424 230 3,057 Pension Settlement 13,696 3,652 4,848
Other Transaction Fees
5,316 9,068 Coal Contract Buyout (6,288)
Gain on Debt Extinguishment
(822) Total Pre-tax Adjustments $288,574 ($154,951) $245,826 $117,949 $497,398 Adjusted EBITDA from Continuing Operations $135,774 $159,290 $209,354 $222,301 $726,719 Less: Net Income Attributable to Noncontrolling Interest $1,179 $2,248 $4,413 $5,464 $13,304 Adjusted EBITDA Attributable to Continuing Operations $134,595 $157,042 $204,941 $216,837 $713,415
Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
38
Source: Company filings.
Three Months Ended Three Months Ended March 31, March 31, ($ in thousands) 2017 2016 Net Cash provided by Continuing Operations $205,194 $119,808 Capital Expenditures (112,978) (78,968) Net Distributions from Equity Affiliates 5,909 (5,578) Organic Free Cash Flow From Continuing Operations $98,125 $35,262 Net Cash Provided By Operating Activities $205,119 $128,442 Capital Expenditures (112,978) (78,968) Capital Expenditures of Discontinued Operations
Net Distributions from Equity Affiliates 5,909 (5,578) Proceeds from Sales of Assets 19,427 411,259 Free Cash Flow $117,477 $449,418