Dynamics and spatial structure of Global atmospheric oscillation - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Dynamics and spatial structure of Global atmospheric oscillation (GAO) based on observations, re-analyses and CMIP5 models Serykh Ilya El Nio Average SST anomalies for 35 El Nio (SSTa > +0.5 C) Duration of the anomalies must be
Average SST anomalies for 35 El Niño (SSTa > +0.5 °C) Average SST anomalies for 32 La Niña (SSTa < -0.5 °C)
Duration of the anomalies must be longer than 5 months. Data from COBE SST for 1891-2014
El Niño 2015/16 Figures from
Figures from
NCEP NOAA Climate Prediction Centre ENSO Diagnostic Discussion Archive
a) The spatial structure
Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) in the smoothed monthly near-surface temperature distribution over the 1920-2016.
t
b) The spatial structure
values of statistical significance of nonzero differences between the near-surface temperature corresponding to El Niño and La Niña events observed during the 1920-2016.
Data from HadCRUT4
a) The spatial structure
Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) in the smoothed monthly sea level pressure distribution over the 1920-2016. b) The spatial structure
values of statistical significance of nonzero differences between the sea level pressure corresponding to El Niño and La Niña events observed during the 1920-2016.
Data from HadSLP2
The speed of the eastward propagation of the sea-level pressure GAO anomalies is the same that the speed of the Chandlerian Pole tide propagation!!!
Data from HadSLP2
1000 hPa 850 hPa 600 hPa 400 hPa 250 hPa Differences and t-Student test between geopotential heights of GAO at different geopotential height levels Data from NCEP/NCAR 1948-2012
ERA-20C ERA-20C NCEP/NCAR NCEP/NCAR JRA-55 JRA-55 JRA-55 NCEP/NCAR ERA-20C HadCRUT.4.4 HadSLP2 HadCRUT HadSLP2 20thC_ReanV2c 20thC_ReanV2c 20thC_ReanV2c Correlations between GAO and ENSO
El Nino (a) and GAO (b) spectra computed for monthly data over the period 1920-2016. Initial data were taken from HadISST and
imitations of the spectra. The 95%- and 5%-quantiles of the "red noise" spectra also are shown. Power spectra of the time series of the monthly mean values
annual period (red line) as well as represented with maximal spectral resolution (blue line), and calculated over the 1870- 2014 year period.
Data from HadCRUTEM4, HadISST and HadSLP2
3c 7c 2c 4c 9c 1/2m 1/6m 1/3m 1/4s 1/4m 1/5m 1/2s 8c 6c
1.2 y – Chandler wobble (c) 11.2 y – Sun-spots activity (s) 18.6 y – Moon-sun nutation (m)
1/3s 5c
Data from HadCRUTEM4
20th Century Reanalysis ACCESS1-3 CESM1-CAM5 CanESM2 CMCC-CM CNRM-CM5 GFDL-CM3 HadGEM2-ES INM-CM4 MPI-ESM-MR MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M
ACCESS1-3 CESM1-CAM5 CanESM2 CMCC-CM CNRM-CM5 GFDL-CM3 HadGEM2-ES INM-CM4 MPI-ESM-MR MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M 20th Century Reanalysis
20th Century Reanalysis v2c ACCESS1-3 CanESM2 CMCC-CM CNRM-CM5 GFDL-CM3 HadGEM2-ES INM-CM4 MPI-ESM-MR MRI-CGCM3 NorESM1-M CESM1-CAM5
Power spectra of the EONI (red) and ESOI (blue) computed from the NOAA CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis, as well as from the
the best of the CMIP5- models Historical experiment.
Comparing of the experiments Historical (with solar forcing) and piControl (with no forcing) for CESM1-CAM5 (NCAR) model
Lag in months
Correlations with lag from -22 to +22 months between EONI (anomalies of SST in Niño 3.4 + Niño 3 + Niño 2 regions) and the sea-level atmospheric pressure for the period 1871-2011.
Data from 20thC_ReanV2c