DSTA OUTLOOK 2017 EVENT 1 www.ecb.europa.eu Welcome ABN Amro Bank - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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DSTA OUTLOOK 2017 EVENT 1 www.ecb.europa.eu Welcome ABN Amro Bank - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Rubric DSTA OUTLOOK EVENT 2017 DSTA OUTLOOK 2017 EVENT 1 www.ecb.europa.eu Welcome ABN Amro Bank Barclays Capital Citibank Commerzbank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC France ING Bank Jefferies Natixis NatWest Markets Nordea Nomura

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Rubric

www.ecb.europa.eu

DSTA OUTLOOK EVENT 2017

DSTA OUTLOOK 2017 EVENT

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Welcome

ABN Amro Bank Barclays Capital Citibank Commerzbank Deutsche Bank Goldman Sachs HSBC France ING Bank Jefferies Natixis NatWest Markets Nordea Nomura Rabobank Santander GB&M Société Générale

16 Primary Dealers, Single Market Specialists and CP Dealers

DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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Today’s programme

15.00 hrs Welcome Key note speaker: Stephen Cohen (BlackRock) Presentation Outlook 2017 by Niek Nahuis (Agent DSTA) Panel discussion, led by Peter Nijsse (BNG) DSTA Awards by Regine Doornbos (Head dealingroom, DSTA) 17.15 hrs Drinks & Bites

DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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Rubric

www.ecb.europa.eu

2017

Niek Nahuis

The Hague, 15 December 2016

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Economic and budgetary outlook

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Economic performance: strong

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1 2 3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Household consumption Capital formation Government consumption Net exports GDP growth

Contribution to growth (% GDP)

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Results structural reforms underpinning growth

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  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 10

  • 60
  • 40
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20 40 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Transactions (LHS) Prices (RHS)

Labour market

(% labour force, seasonally adjusted)

Housing market

(% y-o-y) DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 Unemployment rate (LHS) Job vacancies (RHS)

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Deficit and debt

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  • 8%
  • 7%
  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS)

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DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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  • 8%
  • 7%
  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS)

Deficit and debt

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DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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  • 8%
  • 7%
  • 6%
  • 5%
  • 4%
  • 3%
  • 2%
  • 1%

0% 1% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 68% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS)

Deficit and debt

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Budgetary comparison Euro area (% GDP)

DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

11 Slovakia Slovenia Portugal Luxembourg Lithuania Latvia Greece Ireland Estonia Belgium Germany France Finland Austria Italy Euro area Netherlands Spain 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

  • 4
  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 EMU debt Budget deficit

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Looking back on funding 2016

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Looking back: lower than expected funding

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13 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 capital market range money market range

25-30 26.6 28-33 18.9

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Outlook 2016 Cash effects 2015 Cash effects 2016 Sale of State

  • wned enterprises

Change cash collateral Latest update

DSL buy backs

  • Money market changes explained

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Suppose over the next five years…

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… the budget improves further; … debt levels keep declining; … rates gradually increase; … we keep the MM at 25 bn.  How will this effect our the funding need?  How to fill in our CM?  Major challenges may lie ahead…

DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

Funding returns to pre-crisis levels ?

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 EMU debt (% GDP; RHS) Money market volume ultimo year (€ bn; LHS) Capital market issuance (€ bn; LHS)

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Funding plan 2017

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Funding need 2017

Funding need (€ bn) Capital market redemptions 2017 42.5 Money market ultimo 2016 18.9 Cash collateral ultimo 2016 17.3 Cash surplus 2.0 Total funding need 2017 76.8

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20 20

Funding need 2017

Funding need (€ bn) Capital market redemptions 2017 42.5 Money market ultimo 2016 18.9 Cash collateral ultimo 2016 17.3 Cash surplus 2.0 Total funding need 2017 76.8

DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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Funding need 2017

Funding need (€ bn) Capital market redemptions 2017 42.5 Money market ultimo 2016 18.9 Cash collateral change in 2017 Cash surplus 2.0 Total funding need 2017 59.4

DSTA Presentation Outlook 2017

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Funding plan 2017: split CM and MM

Funding (€ bn) Capital market 30 - 35 Money market 24.4 – 29.4 Total funding requirement 2017 59.4

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Funding plan 2017: redemption profile (€ bn)

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10-year DSL 5-year DSL 3-year DSL USD DSL 20-year DSL 30-year DSL 7-year DSL

New 7-year New 10-year 3 - 5.5 in longer dated off-the-runs On-the-run 5-year

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Capital market issuance in 2017

DSL Indicative amount (€ bn) New DSL 2027 (DDA) 15 Reopening existing on-the-run DSL 2022 7 New DSL 2024 (DDA)* 5.0 – 7.5 Reopening longer dated off-the-run DSLs 3.0 – 5.5 Total DSL funding 30 - 35

* Will be reopened again in 2018 to reach at least € 15 bn

DSL auctions: 2nd and 4th Tuesday of the month DTC auctions: 1st and 3rd Monday of the month

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Issuance calendars Q1 2017

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Month Date Details Target volume (€ bn) January 10 Re-opening DSL 15 January 2047 0.75 -1.25 January 24 Re-opening DSL 15 January 2022 2 – 3 February DDA date to be announced in due time New 10-year DSL 15 July 2027 DDA volume to be announced in due time March 14 Re-opening DSL 15 January 2022 2 - 3 Issuing date Settlement date 3-month programme 6-month programme 2-1-2017 4-1-2017 31-3-2017 30-6-2017 16-1-2017 18-1-2017 31-3-2017 30-6-2017 6-2-2017 8-2-2017 31-7-2017 20-2-2017 22-2-2017 28-4-2017 31-7-2017 6-3-2017 8-3-2017 31-8-2017 20-3-2017 22-3-2017 31-5-2017 31-8-2017

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Q & A plaatje

Panel discussion

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Q & A plaatje

DSTA Awards

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Top 3 CP-dealers 3 Citibank 2 RBS 1 Rabobank

DSTA Awards (I)

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Top 3 DTCs 3 Nordea 2 ING Bank 1 ABN Amro Bank

DSTA Awards (II)

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Top 3 DSLs 2 Jefferies 1 RBS

DSTA Awards (III)

3 HSBC France

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Please join us for drinks & bites

DSTA Outlook Event 2016 11 December 2015