Drought Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay 9.01 GNR 639 GNR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Lesson 9 Drought

9.01

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Water stress occurs when the demand for water exceeds the available amount during a certain

period or when poor quality restricts its use. Falkenmark Water Stress Indicator - a country or region is said to experience "water stress" when annual water supplies drop below 1,700 cubic metres per person per year. At levels between 1,700 and 1,000 cubic metres per person per year, periodic or limited water shortages can be expected. When water supplies drop below 1,000 cubic metres per person per year, the country faces water scarcity.

Water crisis is a general term used to describe a situation where the available water within a

region is less than the region's demand (potable water).

Drought

is a period of drier-than-normal conditions that results in water-related problems, when rainfall is less than normal for several weeks, months or years, the flow of streams and rivers declines and water levels in lakes and reservoirs fall and the depth to water in wells increase.

Famine results from a sequence of processes and events that reduces the food availability and

causes widespread and increased morbidity and mortality. 9.02

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

GLOBAL WATER AVAILABILITY

• 70% Earth Surface covered with water
• Total water reserves: 1400 m km3
• 97.5% Water is salty
• 2.5% Water is fresh (35 m km3)

Out of total fresh water - 68.7%% is frozen in ice caps 30% is ground water 0.3% is surface water (Lakes 87%, swamp 11% and river 2%)

• Only 1% (0.007% of total water) is useable

WASTAGE OF WATER

• Only 35% rain water is used effectively
• Heavy soil erosion along river banks is causing floods and forcing rivers to change their direction
• 40 m ha flood prone; 8-10 m ha affected every year:

Floods in 2007-08 caused 3659 deaths, loss of 0.114 m livestock and damaged 3.5 m houses

• 70% Irrigation water, 48% river water wasted
• Flood irrigation turning agriculture expensive
• 20 m wells pumping water with free power, resulting in depletion of ground water and intrusion
• f sea water in coastal areas

9.03

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Water Scarcity –2025

Outlines show those that are both in and approaching scarcity 9.04

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.05

Drought situations develop due to:

• Deficit precipitation that yield required volume of water
• Storage systems do not have sufficient water for supply
• Lesser crop area to meet food requirements
• Sale in distress conditions
• Crisis management approach is used in Drought management
• Resources & risk based capacity management practices
• Climate scenario along with depleted resources need
• Alternate sources of supply drain out on continuous tapping
• Need for inherent resource management based on vulnerability
• Exposure, sensitivity, adoptive capabilities

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions that results in water-related problems, when rainfall is less than normal for several weeks, months or years, the flow of streams and rivers declines and water levels in lakes and reservoirs fall and the depth to water in wells

• increase. If dry weather persists and water-supply problem develops, the dry period can

become a drought. Famine results from a sequence of processes and events that reduces the food availability and causes widespread and increased morbidity and mortality. It has occurred periodically in the history. In Chronicles of ancient civilization in India, Egypt, Western Asia, China, Greece and Rome, had recorded famines. Desert is a landscape or region that receives an extremely low amount of precipitation, less than enough to support growth of most plants. It is also defined as areas with an average annual precipitation of less than 250 mm per year. Desertification is the process of destruction of the biological potential of the land and can lead ultimately to widespread deterioration of ecosystem. It is the means of conversion of a fertile land towards a dry infertile or deserted land

9.06

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Drought ranges from - statistical (the lowest decile of annual rainfall) to a meteorologist; through yield being limited by too little water to an agronomist; shortfall in the storage system and distribution curtailments to water resources engineers. farmer, it corresponds to management issues, such as - how best to manage a meteorologically drought-prone farm over several years, Permanent - characteristics of the driest climate, and drought vegetation is found and the agriculture is possible only by irrigation Seasonal – planting dates and the crop duration should be synchronized with rainy season and residual moisture storage (arid and semi-arid regions) Contingent - irregular occurrence and there is no regular season of occurrence and invisible-occurs even when there is frequent rainfall and occurs in humid region by Thornwaite (1947).

9.07

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Absolute drought is a period of at least 15 consecutive days to, none of which is credited 0.01 inches of rain or more. Partial drought is a period of at least 29 consecutive days, the mean daily rainfall of which does not exceed 0.01 inches. Dry spell is a period of no rain condition for at least 15 consecutive days to none, out of which 0.04 inches or more is credited for the period. Meteorological drought is the deficiency of rainfall compared to the average mean annual rainfall

• f an area.

Agriculture drought is related to the reduced topsoil moisture at planting stage that may hinder germination, leading to lesser plant population per hectare and a reduction of final yield. It is grouped into - Early season (Delayed onset, prolonged dry spells after onset of monsoon), Mid-season (Inadequate soil moisture between two rain events) and late season (Early cessation

• f rains or insufficient rains).

9.08

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Hydrological drought is associated with shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply for established water uses of a given water resources management system on a watershed or river basin scale. It takes longer for precipitation deficiencies to show up in components of the hydrological system such as soil moisture, stream flow, and ground water and reservoir levels. Socio-economic drought is associated with failure of water resources systems to meet water demands and thus associating droughts to meet water demands and thus associating droughts with supply of and demand for an economic good (

9.09

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.10

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.11

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.12

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.13

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.14

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.15

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Factors responsible for drought are

• cean – atmosphere system, sea surface temperature anomalies, high

temperature of the soil during drought and the increase in fine particles in the air, the high albedo in dry areas

• solar-weather relationship
• monsoon mechanism and impairment of this mechanism.

9.16

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Common consequences of drought include: 1) Diminished crop growth or yield productions and carrying capacity for livestock; 2) Dust storms when drought hits an area suffering from desertification and erosion; 3) Famine due to lack of water for irrigation; 4) Habitat damage, affecting both terrestrial and aquatic wildlife; 5) Malnutrition, dehydration and related diseases; 6) mass migration resulting internal displacement and international refugees; 7) reduced electricity production due to reduced water flow through hydroelectric dam; 8) Shortages of water for industrial users; 9) civil restlessness or war over natural resources – water and food, 10) wild fires / bush fires are common during drought times.

9.17

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Social, economic and environmental impacts are assessed by:- 1) identifying appropriate and relevant physical and social indicators; 2) developing triggers that link indicators of drought severity to impacts during the

• nset and termination of drought conditions;

3) appropriate interpretation of information and clearly expressing that assessment to decision makers in a timely manner. Biophysical indicators used in the profile consisted of soil conditions (quality and depth) and ground water availability. Socioeconomic factors consisted of levels of human and social capital, and the presence

• r lack of alternative economic activities.

Technological Vulnerability Index illustrates the relative technological vulnerability of a district by using indicators that measure a district's technological capacity or access to

• technology. Assured irrigation reduces farmers’ vulnerability to low and erratic rainfall.

9.18

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Declaration Process Drought declaration processes rely on rainfall, soil moisture and irrigation. Irrigation Commission and National Commission on Agriculture derives its definition from Indian Meteorological Department’s definition of drought are:

• when rainfall is less than 75% (normal),
• moderate (25-50% deficiency)
• severe ( > 50% rainfall deficiency).

In areas where drought has occurred in at least 20% of the years examined are classified as Drought Prone Areas those where drought has occurred more than 50% of the years examined are considered as Chronic Drought Areas.

9.19

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Australian Government adopts criteria for Exceptional Circumstances : 1. The event must be both rare (occurs once in every 20-25 years) and severe (significant scale - measured by the number of farm businesses affected, sector impacts, size of the area affected, and overall value of lost production). 2. The effects of the event must result in a severe downturn in farm income over a prolonged period. 3. The event must not be predictable or manageable through normal risk management strategies available to farmers, or be part of a process of structural adjustment.

9.20

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

• Physical indicators include

Rainfall, Effective soil moisture, Surface water availability, Depth to groundwater, etc.

• Biological/ Agricultural indicators comprise

Vegetation cover & composition, Crop & Fodder yield, Condition of domestic animals, Pest incidence, etc.

• Social indicators are mostly impact indicators and include

Food and Feed availability, Land use conditions, Livelihood shifts, Migration of population, etc. In most cases only those indicators that measure the rainfall needs of following sectors are considered: (a) agricultural need, (b) drinking water supply, and (c) storage of reservoirs and ground water

9.21

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.22

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.23

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

• India sustains 16% of the

world’s population on 2.4% of land resource

• Agriculture contributes 24% of

the Indian GDP

• Livelihood support to two-

thirds of the population

• Employment to 57% of work

force

• Single largest private sector
• ccupation
• Raw material source to large

number of industries like (textiles, silk, sugar, rice, flour mills, milk products)

• High dependence on weather

– Up to 80% of variability in crop yields is attributable to weather – Less than 40% of net sown area irrigated – Most irrigation from non- perennial sources – Affects adoption of improved crop production techniques because of high risks and low margins

• Extreme Weather Events in India

(cold wave, drought, fog, heat wave, tropical cyclones, floods)

• Dwindling ground water resources

9.24

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Physical indicators could be measured at regular interval in understanding the drought process. 1) Rainfall - Given the limited capacity to retain surface and sub-surface fresh water and the increasing demands for rainfall, it is imperative that there be a regular and reliable replenishment mechanism. 2) Water levels in streams / rivers indicate us of the quantity of rainfall, the amount of percolation taking place and the water demands. Low water level may also be attributed to weather patterns that climatologists call climate change and could mean debilitating drought. 3) Ground water levels are reflections of rainfall, more importantly though, ground water levels speak of the true national water reserve. Extraction demands are up while re-entry volumes are down due to impermeable covering of asphalt, concrete and galvanized iron sheets in critical places. 4) Soil moisture is critical to the growth of vegetation and the existence of some soil organisms important to the maintenance of soil fertility. As soil moisture decreases, the crumb structure of the soil disintegrates paving the way for windblown erosion. As the moisture in the soil diminishes, gaping cracks emerge allowing for more and faster

9.25

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Biophysical indicators - Plant yellowing: Plant genetic material carry with them survival skills developed over centuries. Embedded in this genetic code is the ability to recognize the emergence of extreme climatic conditions and to respond accordingly. Soil type, texture, water holding capacity, etc. are used. Socio-economic factors that are affected and included are – environmental (ecological), livelihood (economical), social, integrated water resources management (for agriculture & drinking), institutional capacity building, systematic planning and sustainable development of agriculture.

10.26

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Meteorological Indicators such as – Percent of normal, Deciles (Gibbs & Meher 1967) Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al 1993), Palmers Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (Palmer 1965), Aridity Anomaly Index (IMD) etc are widely used. Hydrological - Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) (Shafer & Dezman 1982) and Palmer Hydrological Drought Severity Index (PHDI) (Karl 1987) are effectively being used. A streamflow drought is said to be a period during which the discharge is below normal

• r, in a demand orientated study, a period during which the discharge is insufficient. The

term ‘low flow period’ usually refers to the regime of a stream, which represents the average annual cycle of the stream flow, and the terms ‘low flow period’ and ‘high flow period’ are used to describe the normal annual fluctuations of stream flow linked to the annual cycle of the regional climate.

9.27

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

Withdrawals exceeding 20% of renewable water supply has been used as an indicator of water stress in initiating water resource legislation and management. 1) Ground water abstraction ratio is used in creation of water stress scenarios. 2) Renewable groundwater resources per capita (m3/year) expresses renewable groundwater resources per capita at the national or regional level. 3) Groundwater as a percentage of total use of drinking water indicates the dependency of habitats as the ground water level declines and ground water storage is depleted due to exploitation. 4) Ground water vulnerability (net recharge, soil properties, unsaturated lithology and thickness, ground water level below ground, aquifer media and aquifer hydraulic conductivity in addition to topographic slope) is a relative non-measurable dimensionless property. 5) Ground water quality with respect to drinking water standards, irrigation requirements, industrial use and others forms an indicator. 6) Dependence of agricultural population on ground water is an important indicator in arid and semi-arid regions, as it signifies the livelihood and household home support of rural people.

9.28

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.29

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.30 Source courtesy: mthsdroughts.weebly.com

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

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9.31

Drought vulnerability profile of a region need to capture the socioeconomic conditions of diverse population groups by 1) identifying weaknesses in the current observation system, including the critical needs of marginal areas and the most drought-prone areas; 2) drought monitoring products that are prepared in collaboration with decision makers and presented in an easy-to-understand format; 3) periodic user evaluation of drought monitoring products. Risk is the possibility of adversity or loss and refers to uncertainty that matters and management involves choosing among alternatives to reduce the effects of risk. Production or yield risk occur when agriculture is affected by many uncontrollable events, excessive or insufficient rainfall, extreme temperatures, hail, insects, and diseases. Operationally, farmers are as much affected by the timing of water deficits during a season as by the total seasonal water supply.

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9.32

The following aspects are followed : 1) collection and analyses of drought related information in a timely and systematic manner; 2) establish criteria for declaring drought emergencies and triggering mitigation measures; 3) provide an organizational structure and delivery system for free flow of information; 4) define duties & responsibilities of all agencies; 5) identify vulnerable areas, economic sectors, individuals etc.; 6) identify drought impacts and mitigation activities that would reduce hardship; 7) timely and accurate assessment of drought impacts on various sectors; 8) public awareness initiatives; 9) strategy to remove possible obstacles; 10) plan for continuous evaluation and revision of responsive actions.

Management planning

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9.33

Strategies for drought protection, mitigation or relief include: 1)Construction of many dams and their associated reservoirs supply additional water in times of drought; 2) cloud seeding - an artificial technique to induce rainfall; 3) desalination of sea water for irrigation or consumption; 4) Drought monitoring - Continuous observation of rainfall levels and comparisons with current usage levels can help prevent man-made drought and also ground water level, moisture levels etc. 5) Land use - Carefully planned crop rotation can help to minimize erosion and allow farmers to plant less water-dependent crops in drier years; 6) water use restriction and Regulating the use of sprinklers, hoses or buckets on outdoor plants, filling pools, and other water-intensive home maintenance tasks; 7) rain water harvesting-Collection and storage of rainwater from roofs or other suitable catchments; 8) recycled water - Former wastewater (sewage) that has been treated and purified for reuse 9) Transvasement - Building canals or redirecting rivers as massive attempts at irrigation in drought- prone areas.

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

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• Crop production depends on seed, soil, climate, water & pest
• Crop growth needs soil, air & sunlight and water (precipitation of irrigation). Water

available only in root zone can be used & it is called effective rainfall influenced by climate, soil texture, structure and root zone.

• Crops need water for transpiration and evaporation. Plant roots suck water from

soil for growth. Water that escapes from the plant to atmosphere is transpiration (Day time). Water that goes from surface as vapor to atmosphere is evaporation .

• Crop water requirement depends on climate, crop type & growth stage. It is High

during sunny, hot temperature, low humidity and windy days and low during cloudy (no sun), cool, high humidity and little windy days.

9.34

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.36

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

A GIS-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM for drought:-

• measure, monitor, alert about drought and management
• As traditional wisdom of drought management / sustenance is elusive due to over-dependence on

drought relief

• It has different connotations and contextual relations in different areas and societal segments of

India

• Group of indices provide a total picture of the problem rather than one index.
• Crop cultivators / cattle raisers are most vulnerable - medium & small farmers face maximum
• vulnerability. Livestock raisers who migrate with large herds of animals
• Marginal farmers and weaker sections of the society get priority in social security cover during

drought relief

• Villages depend on rain-fed agriculture and poor access to roads and other infrastructures

constitute the most vulnerable areas

• Spatial distribution of rain-fed villages, high water demand for drinking & irrigation requirement,

poor social network, migratory habitat, drought frequency etc on different scales. 9.37

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

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9.38

Significant Factors that influence drought vulnerability in agricultural systems are:

• Biophysical factors (climate and soil);
• Technological (eg. irrigation);
• Socio-economics (eg. land use).

Drought vulnerability mapping

• Agro- climatological factors - probability of seasonal moisture deficiency;
• Soil water-holding capacity;
• Agricultural systems (rainfed, irrigated, rangeland and livestock);

Output Vulnerability map with low vulnerability, low to moderate, moderate, and high vulnerability. Managing agricultural risks

• Land & Water Management
• Reduced tillage (including non-tillage)
• Water harvesting
• Supplementary irrigation
• Increase water use efficiency

Deviation in Rainfall and Impact on Yield

9.39

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GNR 621 : Hydrosphere

10.05

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GNR 621 : Hydrosphere

10.05

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1999

Week Jun 1- 7 Jun 8-14 Jun 15-21 Jun 22-30 Jul 1-7 Jul 8-14 Jul 15- 21 Jul 22-31 Aug 1- 7 Aug 8- 14 Aug 15-21 Aug 22-31 Sep 1-7 Sep 8-14 Sep 15-21 Sep 22-30 Oct 1-7 Oct 8- 15 Oct 15-21 Oct 22- 31 Akkalkot 23 70 16 7 62 16 2 28 2 70 16 106 20 21 14 41 Barshi 10.4 82.4 7.2 73.2 21.6 25.2 16.6 11.4 10.2 6 4 68.8 76.6 33.6 4.2 2 Tuljapur 3 16.4 49.5 12.3 47.8 23.8 28 29.2 17 26 20.2 10.8 168.6 4.4 34 34 49 18.2 0.2 N.Solapur 0.22 34.2 42.6 13.2 34.27 22.18 8.6 5.2 15.1 8.2 22.7 0.3 1.4 57.5 0.4 16 24.1 55.5 14

2000

Akkalkot 23 57 14 98 59 75 3 16 40 21 156 9 15 66 23 55 Barshi 92 77.4 17.6 51.6 111.8 87.6 207.8 4.5 2.8 39.4 5.5 43.6 Tuljapur 53.2 54.8 12.2 39 166.8 6.2 5.6 29 64.6 16.4 213.4 1.2 48.6 18.2 43.8 5.2 N.Solapur 51.5 34.4 1 21.7 17.4 55.3 0.7 41.1 63.69 12.08 144.4 3.9 12.8 71 10 1.09 34.6

2001

Akkalkot 42 13 2 17 7 46 41 16 4 2 130 105 69 57 6 Barshi 4 129 14.3 4 11.4 6 51.9 100.2 13.4 13 54.2 33 6.4 166.02 Tuljapur 10 48.8 28.6 9.4 7 7.8 3 3.6 56.2 95.2 16.6 6.4 4 9.4 100.4 108.4 35.6 63.9 N.Solapur 2 39.2 7.2 8.8 7.5 3.4 1.4 0.9 42.7 17.3 14.8 1.6 5.6 115.3 194.2 31.5 93.8 0.9

2002

Akkalkot 31 49 12 4 35 41 37 38 63 15 68 18 7 63 8 Barshi 58 24 19 63 27.2 7.5 23.3 51 22 26.05 21.05 40 7 67 4 19 Tuljapur 19.2 38.4 6 62.4 15 28.6 34.4 44.4 43 38 122 16.2 12.3 16.7 37.8 N.Solapur

2003

Akkalkot 8 10 17 3 7 31 3 12 2 135 Barshi 13 16.6 45 34.6 36.6 7.2 4.4 7 4.04 68.02 51.4 10.6 Tuljapur 2 7 52.2 93 35.4 59.4 18.6 30 10.4 94.4 2 1 63.2 N.Solapur

2004

Akkalkot 37 35 5 15 71 19 10 112.5 15.5 5 24 71 17 47 11

9.41

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• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

MYSOR Mysore 148 83 83 117 84 47 47 34 57 57 57 57 52 35 27 101 123 35 34 85 84 76 92 182 162 162 147 174 187 225 62 62 62 186 183 179 180 192 192 192 190 112 75 137 164 187 158 102 188 170 128 148 96 166 149 70 126 151 174 404 92 92 92 93 93 94 88 88 87 109 131 145 50 74 71 188 346 196 331 33 33 32 51 17 25 23 60 111 65 1925 597 515 35 34 33 33 32 32 35 36 37 650 365 130 83 155 599 23 24 25 26 28 29 (mm)

• %

RF %

• CWR

RF (mm) (ha.) Sown Ragi Std. Week 205 112 58 CWR

• CWR
• %

263 154 59 RF (mm) 194

• (mm)

% RF CWR CROPWATER BUDGETING FOR DIFFERENT CROPS SOWN IN SELECTED TALUKS DURING KHARIF 2000 Late Season Stage Crop Dev. Stage Initial Stage Area Sowing Middle Season Stage Crop District Taluk

2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 2 9 3 0 3 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 5 3 6 3 7 3 8 3 9 4 0 4 1 4 2 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 4 7 4 8 4 9 5 0 5 1 5 2 1 2 3 3 0 .5 2 9 .5 2 8 .5 2 7 .9 2 7 .2 2 6 .6 2 6 .0 2 6 .1 2 6 .2 2 6 .3 2 6 .4 2 6 .5 2 6 .7 2 6 .8 2 7 .2 2 7 .3 2 6 .7 2 6 .2 2 4 .7 2 5 .1 2 5 .2 2 5 .5 2 5 .0 2 4 .9 2 4 .8 2 4 .8 6 5 0 3 6 5 2 5 .8 2 6 .5 2 7 .3 2 4 .8 2 5 .0 1 9 2 5 5 9 7 5 1 5 1 3 0 8 3 1 5 5 5 9 9

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Natural Calamity Relief (NDM, GOI)– cyclone, hailstorm, tsunami, flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, snow avalanche, pest attack Assistance to small & marginal farmers for:- Desilting of agricultural land & removal of debris

• 1. Agriculture input subsidy where crop loss 50% & above – agriculture, horticulture, annual

plantation & perennial crops

• 2. Animal husbandry assistance – water supply & fodder / medicine
• 3. Drinking water supply – repair of damaged pumps/ wells; restoration/replacement of damaged

pipes; repairing of pumps

• 4. Approach Roads – filling of breaches, stone pitching embankments; repair of breached culverts;

temporary bridge repair

• 5. Irrigation - immediate repair of damaged canal structures, masonry tank works; removal of debris
• 6. Health – health center building; medicines
• 7. Ex-gratia payment to deceased persons, injury; relief to old /destitute, children; gratuitous relief for

families for sustainance.

9.43

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9.44

Application of early warning system is related to: - a)

• perational responsibilities established at National and local levels of public administration and

authority, b) sole responsibility should rest with an agency, c) decision to act upon receipt of warning information is political in character, d) warnings should be clearly understood and operationally relevant to local agencies, e) warning is based on risk analysis that would lead to advisory information to vulnerable groups, f) relevant to risk reduction practices, g) need to monitor and forecast changes in vulnerability patterns, h) locally appropriate warning systems need to provide a range of communication methods and multiple strategies i) require substantial involvement of stockholder.

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9.45

Natural disaster mitigation activities address the following:-

• 1. Minimize the potential risks by developing disaster early warning

strategies

• 2. Prepare and implement developmental plans to provide resilience to

such disasters

• 3. Mobilize

resources including communication and tele-medicinal services

• 4. Help the rehabilitation and post-disaster reduction.

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9.46

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GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.01

Assessing Vulnerability to Drought

• Conceptual Model of Vulnerability

Climatic vulnerability Agricultural vulnerability Occupational vulnerability

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9.48

Anticipated Drought Intensity Assessment is for individual village’s Water Demand & supply Based on Surface run-off & storage Demand from human & animal Irrigation & Drinking water Storage & conveyance loss Consideration Ground water abstraction is minimum or nil to avoid uncontrolled exploitation Available Storage facility is functional Extra resource is not sought for Drought intensity Assessment – Loha-Nanded

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9.49

Drought vulnerability and adaptive capacity of villages

Exposure infers about the condition of a spatial unit depending on the extent, duration, magnitude and frequency of droughts. Exposure index (EI)=( DF+DI+AR+SR+MR+WR+DS+TV+VC+CA+CCA+DC+WCA+PD+WS+RAI+SPI)/17

Sensitivity refers to the degree to which agriculture and agricultural laborers’ response to drought

• r water stress. It is being assessed based on the farmer’s decision to cultivate a crop or not due to

delay of monsoon or improper distribution of rainfall.

Sensitivity index (SI)=(IA+AL+SL+CP)/4 Adaptive capacity is the ability of an area to cope up during rainfall failure (water stress or drought).

Adaptive capacity (ACI)=(WH+RO+WC+WI+GR+LD+WD+LR)/8 soil WC, livestock density (LD), water demand (WD), water holding in structure like tanks/reservoir (WH) and literacy (LR) information

𝐸𝑠𝑝𝑣𝑕ℎ𝑢 𝑤𝑣𝑚𝑜𝑓𝑠𝑏𝑐𝑗𝑚𝑗𝑢𝑧 𝑗𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑦 𝑬𝑾𝑱 EI + SI + ACI X 100

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.50

Exposure index

(EI) = (DF+ DI+ AR+ SR+ MR+ WR+ DS+ TV+ VC+ CA+ CCA+ DC+ WCA+ PD+ WS+ RAI+ SPI Declared Drought frequency (DF) (%); Drought intensity (DI) (%); Annual rainfall (AR) (%); Seasonal rainfall (SR); Monthly rainfall (kharif) (MR); Weekly rainfall (WR); Dry spell (DS) frequency (%) ; Temperature Variation (TV); Vegetation cover (VC); Cultivated area (%) (CA); Change in cultivated area (CCA) Dry crop area (%) (DC); Wet crop area (%) (WCA); Population density (PD); Water stress (%) (WS); Rainfall Analysis (RAI); Soil moisture (SPI)

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.51

Sensitivity index

(SI) = (IA+AL+SL+CP)/4

Irrigated area (%) (IA) Agriculture labor (%) (AL) Slope (SL)) (%) Crop production (CP

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.52

Drought vulnerability index (DVI) = (EI+SI+ACI)/3 X 100

Exposure index (EI) Sensitivity index (SI) Adaptive capacity (ACI)

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.53 Source courtesy:slideshare.net

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.54 Source courtesy: public.wmo.int

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 621 : Hydrosphere

10.05

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.56 Community Level Drought Preparedness Assessment

• Compare

rainfall amount, water level in wells & lakes / reservoir with that of previous year

• IF it is less

THEN

• Compare with

crop area, population, industry etc

• IF it is less
• THEN

Initiate conservation practices Or drought preparedness activities

• IF it is equal or higher

Share resources & Save resources Experiment with Drought preparedness measures & consult stake holders prior to execution (R.Nagarajan/IIT Bombay)

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.59

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.59

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

10.57 Source courtesy:iwa-network.org

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.58 Source courtesy:slideshare.net

GNR 639

• Prof. R. Nagarajan, CSRE , IIT Bombay

GNR 639 : Natural Disaster And Management

9.59

Thank you