Drought conditions and strategies for their management : Case of Cte - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Drought conditions and strategies for their management : Case of Côte d’I voire

National Meteorological Service

Mr Kouakou Bernard DJE Chief of Climatology Apply Meteorology Department SODEXAM / National Meteorological Service of Côte d’Ivoire E-mail: dkouakou_b@yahoo.fr

INTRODUCTION

• I. DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
• II. DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
• III. EMERGENCY RELIEF AND RESPONSE TO DROUGHT
• IV. NEED KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS ON MANAGEMENT OF

DROUGHT

• V. NEEDS FOR PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT

CONCLUSION

OUTLI NE

INTRODUCTION

• Côte d’Ivoire is a country of forest and savannah.
• The

country udergoes rainfall variation

• bserved

several years ago, such as West and Central Africa.

• This variation is reflected in a decrease of annual

rainfall and a shift of onset seasons.

• The high frequency of deficits of rainfall affects the

ecosystem balance, related to specific climatic conditions and availability of water resources in the ground.

• This

situation is aggravated by the increase

• f

population, who destroys vegetation for plantations

• r annual crops.
• Drought problems are becoming therefore, a national

concern.

DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

• 9
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4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Korhogo Odienné Bondoukou Bouaké Daloa Man Dimbokro Yamoussoukro Gagnoa Adiaké Abidjan Sassandra San Pédro Tabou

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4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Korhogo Odienné Bondoukou Bouaké Daloa Man Dimbokro Yamoussoukro Gagnoa Adiaké Abidjan Sassandra San Pédro Tabou

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4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Korhogo Odienné Bondoukou Bouaké Daloa Man Dimbokro Yamoussoukro Gagnoa Adiaké Abidjan Sassandra San Pédro Tabou

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4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Korhogo Odienné Bondoukou Bouaké Daloa Man Dimbokro Yamoussoukro Gagnoa Adiaké Abidjan Sassandra San Pédro Tabou

Rainfall decadal evolution

(1961- 1970) line 1400 mm is in the Center (1971- 1980) line 1400 mm is in the South- interior (1981- 1990) line 1400 mm is at the coast (1991- 2000) line 1400 mm is at the coast and near Tabou

Drought m onitoring

The characterization of the drought in Côte d’Ivoire is using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) .

• SPI values

are calculated for one, 3, 6 and 12 months,

• Referring to SPI classification system as proposed by

McKee et al , (1993) , we consider that we are facing a phenomenon of drought when the index values fall below -0.99 .

• Duration of the drought sequence corresponds to the

time during which the values

• f SPI remain below
• 0.99 .

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999

Années Pourcentage des stations

%Moderement sec

Distribution of drought

• 1961-1978: 15% of regions were affected;
• 1981-2000: 17% of regions were affected (strong

recurrent of drought since 1981)

Pays

Station

As part

• f

the improvement

• f

warning systems, National Meteorology Service ( SODEXAM / DMN) develops and distributes a 10 days bulletin "Special Risk of bushfires ." This bulletin is designed based on the 10 days monitoring index of Angstrom based on temperature and relative humidity, Objective: to provide a useful set of information to fight against bush fires that cause annual forest destruction, plantations , villages and loss of life, Destination: policy makers and all national institutions in charge

• f disasters

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

ODIENNE KORHOGO BONDOUKOU BOUAKE YAMOUSSOUKRO DIMBOKRO ABIDJAN ADIAKE GAGNOA SASSANDRA SAN PEDRO TABOU DALOA MAN

Map of dekad 01, january 2009

LEGEND OBSERVATIONS Moderate risk No vigilance High risk Vigilance in the use of fire for agricultural works and other Extreme risk High vigilance in the use of fire Not evaluated No data

Analysis of rainfall profiles Objective : to track on a daily scale, rainfall variations from normal. When the rainfall deficit becomes persistent in the month , drought notices are issued for national agencies ( ONPC, ANADER ).

NDVI index is followed at dekad (10 days) scale to track the dryness of the vegetation at national level Spatial monitoring

DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

Cocoa yield variation compared to the previous yield

• 50,0
• 40,0
• 30,0
• 20,0
• 10,0

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 1950-1951 1952-1953 1954-1955 1956-1957 1958-1959 1960-1961 1962-1963 1964-1965 (Nina) 1966-1967 1968-1969 (Nino) 1970-1971 1972-1973 (Nino) 1974-1975 (Nina) 1976-1977 1978-1979 1980-1981 1982-1983 (Nino) 1984-1985 1986-1987 1988-1989 1990-1991 1992-1993 (Nino) 1994-1995 1996-1997 (Nino) 1998-1999 Variation du rendem ent de cacao (% )

Variation (en %) par rapport à la campagne précédente

Drop of cocoa yield about 21% and 27% during the 1972-1973 and 1982-1983. With 1.5million T/ year, Côte d’Ivoire is the first producer in the world. The lost is estimated at around $US 500,000,000.

Social im pact

• Movement
• f

farmers towards forest regions to practise their agricultural activities.

• High concentration of population in these regions, source of many

conflicts between natives and farmers.

• Rural rights problem : adoption of the law No. 98-750 of december 23rd

1998 on national rural rights in Cote d’Ivoire.

Movement of farmers from the old loop of cocoa to forest areas since 1970s. Old loop of cocoa in 1960s

EMERGENCY RELIEF AND RESPONSE TO DROUGHT

LEGAL REGULATIONS

There is no institutional and legal dispositions concerning especially drought. The problem

• f drought is taken into account in

general political management of environment and forest, energy, water and, regulations texts that follow. However, since ratification

• f

the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) by Côte d’Ivoire, the implementation

• f

institutional and legal texts in what concerns drought and dersertification is in progress.

NEED KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS ON MANAGEMENT OF DROUGHT

Because of the variability of drought, the following recommendations concerning the prevention and management

• f

drought situations can be made:

• To

develop integrated method for monitoring and evaluating drought;

• To

strengthen national capacities for collecting and processing data on natural disasters such as drought.

CONCLUSI ON

• The effects of drought have weakened

the Ivorian economy, especially droughts of 1983, 1998 and 2010.

• Joint

efforts at national and regional level should be undertaken to monitor the drought and mitigate its negative effects.