Drought conditions and strategies for their management : Case of Cte - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

National Meteorological Service Drought conditions and strategies for their management : Case of Côte d’I voire Mr Kouakou Bernard DJE Chief of Climatology Apply Meteorology Department SODEXAM / National Meteorological Service of Côte d’Ivoire E-mail: dkouakou_b@yahoo.fr

OUTLI NE INTRODUCTION I. DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS II. DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT III. EMERGENCY RELIEF AND RESPONSE TO DROUGHT IV. NEED KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS ON MANAGEMENT OF DROUGHT V. NEEDS FOR PREVENTION AND MANAGEMENT CONCLUSION

INTRODUCTION • Côte d’Ivoire is a country of forest and savannah. • The country udergoes rainfall variation observed several years ago, such as West and Central Africa. • This variation is reflected in a decrease of annual rainfall and a shift of onset seasons. • The high frequency of deficits of rainfall affects the ecosystem balance, related to specific climatic conditions and availability of water resources in the ground. • This situation is aggravated by the increase of population, who destroys vegetation for plantations or annual crops. • Drought problems are becoming therefore, a national concern.

DROUGHT MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Rainfall decadal evolution 11 11 (1971- 10 10 (1961- 1980) Odienné Odienné Korhogo Korhogo 1970) line 9 9 line 1400 Bondoukou Bondoukou 8 8 Bouaké 1400 Bouaké mm is in Man Man mm is Yamoussoukro the 7 Daloa Yamoussoukro 7 Daloa Dimbokro Dimbokro in the South- Gagnoa Gagnoa 6 6 Center interior Adiaké Abidjan Adiaké Abidjan Sassandra 5 Sassandra 5 San Pédro San Pédro Tabou Tabou 4 4 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 11 11 (1991- 2000) 10 10 Odienné Odienné (1981- Korhogo Korhogo line 9 9 1990) 1400 line Bondoukou Bondoukou mm is 8 8 Bouaké Bouaké 1400 Man Man at the Yamoussoukro Yamoussoukro 7 Daloa 7 Daloa mm is Dimbokro Dimbokro coast Gagnoa Gagnoa at the and 6 6 coast Adiaké Adiaké Abidjan Abidjan near Sassandra Sassandra 5 5 San Pédro San Pédro Tabou Tabou Tabou 4 4 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2

Drought m onitoring The characterization of the drought in Côte d’Ivoire is using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) .  SPI values are calculated for one, 3, 6 and 12 months,  Referring to SPI classification system as proposed by McKee et al , (1993) , we consider that we are facing a phenomenon of drought when the index values fall below -0.99 .  Duration of the drought sequence corresponds to the time during which the values of SPI remain below -0.99 .

Distribution of drought Pays %Moderement sec 40 35 Pourcentage des stations 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Années • 1961-1978: 15% of regions were affected; • 1981-2000: 17% of regions were affected (strong recurrent of drought since 1981)

Station

EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS As part of the improvement of warning systems, National Meteorology Service ( SODEXAM / DMN) develops and distributes a 10 days bulletin "Special Risk of bushfires ." This bulletin is designed based on the 10 days monitoring index of Angstrom based on temperature and relative humidity, Objective: to provide a useful set of information to fight against bush fires that cause annual forest destruction, plantations , villages and loss of life, Destination: policy makers and all national institutions in charge of disasters

Map of dekad 01, january 2009 LEGEND OBSERVATIONS Moderate risk No vigilance Vigilance in the use of fire for High risk agricultural works and other ODIENNE Extreme risk High vigilance in the use of fire KORHOGO Not evaluated No data BONDOUKOU BOUAKE MAN YAMOUSSOUKRO DIMBOKRO DALOA GAGNOA ABIDJAN SASSANDRA ADIAKE SAN PEDRO TABOU

Analysis of rainfall profiles Objective : to track on a daily scale, rainfall variations from normal. When the rainfall deficit becomes persistent in the month , drought notices are issued for national agencies ( ONPC, ANADER ).

Spatial monitoring NDVI index is followed at dekad (10 days) scale to track the dryness of the vegetation at national level

DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

$US 500,000,000. producer in the world. The lost is estimated at around With 1.5million T/ year, Côte d’Ivoire is the first 1972-1973 and 1982-1983. Drop of cocoa yield about 21% and 27% during the Cocoa yield variation compared to the previous yield Variation du rendem ent de cacao (% ) -50,0 -40,0 -30,0 -20,0 -10,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 0,0 1950-1951 1952-1953 1954-1955 1956-1957 1958-1959 1960-1961 1962-1963 1964-1965 (Nina) Variation (en %) par rapport à la campagne précédente 1966-1967 1968-1969 (Nino) 1970-1971 1972-1973 (Nino) 1974-1975 (Nina) 1976-1977 1978-1979 1980-1981 1982-1983 (Nino) 1984-1985 1986-1987 1988-1989 1990-1991 1992-1993 (Nino) 1994-1995 1996-1997 (Nino) 1998-1999

Social im pact • Movement of farmers towards forest regions to practise their agricultural activities. • High concentration of population in these regions, source of many conflicts between natives and farmers. • Rural rights problem : adoption of the law No. 98-750 of december 23 rd 1998 on national rural rights in Cote d’Ivoire. Movement of farmers from the old loop of cocoa to forest areas since 1970s. Old loop of cocoa in 1960s

EMERGENCY RELIEF AND RESPONSE TO DROUGHT

LEGAL REGULATIONS There is no institutional and legal dispositions concerning especially drought. The problem of drought is taken into account in general political management of environment and forest, energy, water and, regulations texts that follow. However, since ratification of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) by Côte d’Ivoire, the implementation of institutional and legal texts in what concerns drought and dersertificatio n is in progress.

NEED KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS ON MANAGEMENT OF DROUGHT

Because of the variability of drought, the following recommendations concerning the prevention and management of drought situations can be made:  To develop integrated method for monitoring and evaluating drought;  To strengthen national capacities for collecting and processing data on natural disasters such as drought.

CONCLUSI ON • The effects of drought have weakened the Ivorian economy, especially droughts of 1983, 1998 and 2010. • Joint efforts at national and regional level should be undertaken to monitor the drought and mitigate its negative effects.