Dont Panic! A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Don’t Panic! A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming Theory Warren Meyer, Climate-Skeptic.com November 10, 2009 in Phoenix, AZ

2 The Case For Global Warming • How do greenhouse gasses work? • How do models arrive at catastrophic temperature forecasts? • Links between warming and other climate changes

3 How Does Man Create CO 2 ? A Hydrocarbon Water (H 2 O) + + Oxygen (O 2 ) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) + Heat It is the same basic process whether in a power plant furnace or in the human body

4 How Does Man Create CO 2 ? A Hydrocarbon Water (H 2 O) + + Oxygen (O 2 ) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) + Heat Traditional pollutants were much easier to eliminate � Pollutants like sulfates (SOx) reduced by reducing impurities in the fuel and by scrubbing exhaust gasses � Pollutants like ozone, carbon monoxide, NOx reduced by better combustion � Pollutants like carbon and ash reduced by filtration The only way to prevent carbon dioxide in emissions is not to burn fossil fuels - it is fundamental to combustion

5 1. Sun Warms the Earth

2. Energy Radiates Back into 6 Space, on Multiple Frequencies

7 3. CO2 Absorbs Some Frequencies

8 4. More CO2 Absorbs More Radiation, But There is A Diminishing Return

9 5. CO2 Re-Radiates the Heat, Some of Which Warms the Earth’s Surface

10 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 9.0 8.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 350 450 550 650 750 Atmospheric CO2, PPM

11 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 9.0 8.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 350 450 550 650 750 Atmospheric CO2, PPM

12 Getting a Feel For Parts per Million � Current CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm � Riddle: When flying from Los Angeles to New York, if you have traveled the equivalent of 385 ppm of the entire trip, where would your airplane be?

13 Getting a Feel For Parts per Million � Current CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm � Riddle: When flying from Los Angeles to New York, if you have traveled the equivalent of 385 ppm of the entire trip, where would your airplane be? � Answer: Less than halfway down the runway at LAX. � Man is thought to have increased CO 2 from about 270 to 385 ppm. That is a 0.011% change in the mix of atmospheric gasses

14 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 9.0 8.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 350 450 550 650 750 Atmospheric CO2, PPM

15 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 9.0 ∆ T = F(C 2 ) – F(C 1 ) Where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c 2 +0.0000014c 3 ) 8.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 7.0 6.0 5.0 Likely CO2 Range by 2100 4.0 3.0 No Feedback 2.0 1.0 - 1.3C by 2100 1.0 0.0 350 450 550 650 750 Atmospheric CO2, PPM

16 One Degree? We Must Be Missing Something. � The Answer is Feedback � Catastrophic forecasts assume that positive feedbacks multiply the warming by 3-8x � Example positive feedback assumptions of high- warming models − Increase in atmospheric water content (relative humidity constant with rising temps = more H2O) − Increase high cirrus clouds − Decrease in albedo from melting ice − Increase in methane releases from northern tundra − Release of CO2 from warmer oceans � High enough feedback leads to tipping points and runaway processes

17 Feedback Multiplies or Reduces An Initial Disturbance Positive Feedback Negative Feedback � Disturbances are amplified � Disturbances are damped � System may end up far from its � System remains near its starting starting point point, though it can oscillate

Positive Feedback Example 18 50% Positive Feedback Fraction There is some initial Initial Input perturbation to the system, such as a temperature change The system adds to the initial First perturbation, in this example by Feedback 50% of the initial input But now the system will add 2nd even more, equal to 50% of the first feedback Etc... 3rd Final Value is 1/(1-f) times Initial Input, so Final Value is double the Initial Input when f=50%

19 One Degree? We Must Be Missing Something. � The Answer is Feedback � Catastrophic forecasts assume that positive feedbacks multiply the warming by 3-8x � Example positive feedback assumptions of high- warming models − Increase in atmospheric water content (relative humidity constant with rising temps = more H2O) − Increase in methane releases from northern tundra − Increase high cirrus clouds − Decrease in albedo from melting ice − Release of CO2 from warmer oceans � High enough feedback leads to tipping points and runaway processes

20 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 +10C by 2100 9.0 8.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 7.0 6.0 +5.4C by 2100 (IPCC high fcst) 5.0 4.0 +3.4C by 2100 (IPCC mean fcst) 3.0 2.0 No Feedback +1.0 to 1.3C by 2100 1.0 0.0 350 450 550 650 750 Atmospheric CO2, PPM

21 Catastrophic Global Warming Theory Based Temperature Projections From CO2 on Two Chained Theories IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 9.0 8.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 7.0 6.0 5.0 From Climate Positive Feedback Theory 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 From Greenhouse Gas Theory 0.0 350 450 550 650 750 Atmospheric CO2, PPM

22 Rising Temperatures Lead to Other Negative Climate Changes � Changing precipitation patterns (more drought in some areas, more rain in others) � Melting ice and rising sea levels � Species extinctions � Increase hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe storms � Migration of tropic diseases to new areas

23 Five Key Climate Questions • Is the world warming? • Is that warming due to man’s CO 2 ? • Will future man-made warming be substantial? • Will we see catastrophic effects from warming? • Do CO 2 abatement laws like cap-and-trade make sense?

24 Historic Temperature Record Shows Warming of About 0.6C 1.0 Global Temperature Anomaly, Degrees C 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Orange line is a centered 60 month moving average Lighter blue = switch to satellite data -0.8 Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH -1.0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

25 Where's The Acceleration? Temperatures Have Been Flat for a Decade 0.8 Global Temperature Anomaly, Degrees C 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source: Hadley CRUT, UAH -0.2 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

26 Sea Surface Temperatures Flat

27 Tucson Had Most Warming Since 1900 (According the USHCN Weather Station Data)

28 USHCN Weather Station Survey Tucson, AZ Official weather station in a parking lot! I wonder what this looked like in 1900? Survey archived at www.WeatherStations.org

29 Tucson AZ Site circa 1900

30 We Found Consistently Bad Siting Around Arizona Surveys archived at www.WeatherStations.org

31 Measuring the Phoenix Urban Heat Island 5 to 10 Degrees F Meyer, 2008

32 Urban Growth Biases Temperatures Upwards Half or More of Measured Temperature Increases May Be Due to Urban Biases 1950-2000 California Temperature Change, Celsius 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 Urban Urban Urban Urban Rural Rural Rural Rural Source: LaDochy, 2007

33 Five Key Climate Questions • Is the world warming? – Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has been no warming in last 10-15 years • Is that warming due to man’s CO 2 ? • Will future man-made warming be substantial? • Will we see catastrophic effects from warming? • Do CO 2 abatement laws like cap-and-trade make sense?

34 The Existence of Warming from the Greenhouse Effect is “Settled Science” The Legitimate Question is, “How Much?”

35 Early Ice Core Studies Seemed to Have Found the Smoking Gun CO 2 appeared to be a strong driver of global temperatures… Source: IPCC AR4

36 More Careful Measurements Have Reversed the Findings

37 Early IPCC Reports Found Current Temperatures to be Unexceptionable Reconstructed temperature anomaly Source: IPCC, 1990 AR1

Mann’s Hockey Stick Purported to 38 Show Recent Warming as Unprecedented

39 “Novel” Statistical Methods Mann 1998 – Simple mean of 415 proxy series Mann 1998 – Published results McIntyre & McKitrick, 2006

40 A Few Proxy Series (<5% of the total) Drive the Result � Multiple studies, but they are not independent − Same researchers, same reviewers − Different proxies at the margin, but all use a core of 2-3 proxies know to drive hockey stick results � McIntyre & McKitrick (2005) showed the Mann methodology used and re-used by these studies − Creates hockey sticks from random noise − Seeks out and overweights HS shaped proxy series � High-Altitude southwest US bristlecone pines were for years the “secret sauce” to make hockey sticks − Questionable proxy – are we measuring rainfall, temperature, or CO2 fertilization? − Many modern anthropogenic factors − Proxies used by Mann and others have not been replicated by more recent work (Ababneh 2007)