Diplomats for the Future Diplomatic Training on the Content and - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Diplomats for the Future

Diplomatic Training on the Content and Implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Alicia Bárcena

Executive Secretary

Santiago, 8 de September de 2017

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Megatrends

• Geopolitical reorganization of

power

• Demographic transition, migration
• Growing inequality
• Climate change
• Technological revolution

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

14 months that shook the world

• The international political economy has undergone

a radical transformation in the 14 months following the Brexit vote in June 2016 (globalization backlash):

₋ weakening of multilateralism ₋ return of protectionism ₋ rise of extreme political movements ₋ increased tendency towards international conflict

• How did we get here?
• The transition must be made between two contrasting

narratives for governing the global economy.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Transitioning from hypergloblization to

• pen multilateralism for development
• From hyperglobalization, the prevailing vision according to which

trade and financial liberalization and market deregulation –without safeguarding global public goods or compensating losers– would suffice… …but economies that are highly heterogeneous –in terms of technology, resources, capacities and institutions– build up tensions and polarizations that do not correct themselves automatically...

• …and proposes international cooperation to regulate markets,

administer tensions, reduce inequalities and keep the stakeholders committed to an open international system that safeguards public goods and shared and inclusive prosperity.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

The political economy of hyperglobalization

• Crisis of multilateralism
• Economic nationalism and proteccionism
• A fragmented trading system combined with more protectionism

and growing uncertainty about mega-agreements

• An international system with few financial regulations and weak

multilateral mechanisms, especially in the international tax system, leaving room for tax avoidance and evasion, as well as a high degree of financiarization:

• Favours stronger actors (businesses and governments) with

greater bargaining and market power

• Middle-class crisis /perception of losers who are resentful
• f globalization’s winners
• Future generations have no voice

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Globalization questioned

Tensions Repercussions

• Low dynamism of the global

economy

• High unemployment (Europe)
• Wage stagnation
• Growing migratory flows
• Increasing inequality
• Intense competition from Asian

manufactures

• Disruptive impacts of the digital

revolution

• Weak growth
• Rise of nationalisms
• Opposition to new trade

agreements

• Resistance to immigration
• Anti globalization movements
• Middle-class crisis /perception of

losers who are resentful of globalization’s winners

• Greater exposure to financial

volatility and indebtedness

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

The 2030 Agenda and the 17 SDGs

• It reflects the consensus of the

193 countries on the need to change the prevailing development pattern.

• It is universal, indivisible,

integrated and civilizing call for reconciling policies to end poverty, achieve equality and ensure environmental stewardship.

• Only multilateral cooperation

can correct asymmetries and lay the foundations of an open and stable international system that imposes fewer restrictions on national decisions.

169 targets - 231 indicators “Leaving no one behind with equality front and centre”

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Principles of Agenda 2030

• The multilateral space as a community of interests and not as an

area for North-South cooperation: all at the table with common but differentiated responsibilities

• Political agreements for a universal covenant for sustainable

development with equality at the center

• Enhancing a culture of collective action for development based on

tolerance for differences and diversity

• Strategic vision with an intergenerational approach promoting

agreements between State and non-State actors

• Build institutional capabilities and resilience to manage big data, to

ensure continuity of policies and programmes and to enable access to information, participation and justice by all actors

• More and better democracy and rule of law: access to information,

participation and justice by all actors.

• Independent measuring and monitoring: autonomy of statistics ad

participation of civil society to asses progress

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

In response to growing tensions: reaffirm the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs

• The new political economy poses risks for the 2030 Agenda

and the SDGs, the Paris Agreement and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda, the Sendai Framework and the SAMOA Pathway, the Migration Global Compact, and with them the possibility of an international economy based on multilateral cooperation.

• The challenge is to recoup the multilateral cooperation

agenda, which risks being weakened by hyperglobalization and emerging unilateralism.

• Six tensions, in particular, make the Agenda 2030 essential

well as achieving a less asymmetrical form of international cooperation.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

• 1. The 2030 Agenda is necessary to correct

the recessionary bias resulting from persistent trade deficits

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, 2008-2016a (Percentages of global GDP)

Source: ECLAC, Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy, 2016 (LC/G.2697-P), Santiago, 2016.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

The imbalances must be corrected by means

• f more ―not less― trade integration
• Imbalances cannot be eased by countries simultaneously

stepping up mercantilist measures in order to unilaterally seek trade surpluses. It is impossible for all countries to have a trade surplus at the same time.

• The solution is greater cooperation to increase effective

demand in countries running surpluses and allow a “soft landing” for countries with deficits.

• This cooperation can be achieved by coordinating fiscal

policies (more expansionary in surplus countries), income policies and exchange-rate policies and especially through support for production diversification and export policies in developing countries.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

• 2. The 2030 Agenda is needed to reduce the

great instability and uncertainty generated by financial globalization

THE DISSONANCE BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE AND THE REAL ECONOMY: GLOBAL NOMINAL GDP, FINANCIAL ASSETS AND FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES, 1980-2014 (Trillions of dollars)

Source: ECLAC, on the basis of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and World Bank, World Development Indicators, 2015.

In 1980, global financial assets matched global GDP in value. In 2014, they were more than 12 times global GDP

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

• 3. The 2030 Agenda is needed to reduce the gaps

between winners and losers…

VARIATION IN REAL INCOME OF THE GLOBAL POPULATION BY PERCENTILE, BETWEEN 1988 AND 2008 (Percentages)

• A. Middle class

in emerging countries (China)

• B. Middle class

in developed countries (USA and EU)

• C. World’s richest 1%

Source: C. Lakner and B. Milanovic “World Panel Income Distribution (LM-WPID)” 2013 [online] http://go.worldbank.org/NWBUKI3JP0.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

… and deal with an increasingly unequal world

Source: Euronews, [onlilne] http://www.euronews.com/2017/01/16/oxfam-eight-men-own-as-much-wealth-as-poorest-half-of-world-s-population on the basis of Oxfam, “An Economy for the 1%”, 2017 *online+ https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp-economy-for-99- percent-160117-en.pdf.

WORLD: NUMBER OF BILLIONAIRES OWNING AS MUCH WEALTH AS THE POOREST HALF OF THE WORLD, 2010-2016 (Billions of dollars)

388 177 62 80 92 159

8

6 of these linked to ICTs

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

…and to recover the welfare State and protection in the world of work.

Source: IMF (2017), World Economic Outlook, April 2017.

SHARE OF LABOUR IN INCOME (Percentages)

• A prisoner’s dilemma is emerging

in relation to the world of work and social policy, similar to the situation with fiscal policy.

• The countries are unwilling to

unilaterally increase social protection or workers’ bargaining power for fear of raising costs and losing share in domestic and external markets.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Time Innovation rhythm

Industrial Era Digital Era

Development and equality gap

• 4. Disruptive technology

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

The future is here..

Source: ECLAC, on the basis of Sirkin, H., M. Zinser y J. Rose, “The shifting economics of global manufacturing: how cost competitiveness is changing worldwide”, The Boston Consulting Group, agosto de 2014, y The Conference Board, “International comparisons of hourly compensation costs in manufacturing, 2015”

EVOLUTION OF THE COST OF A ROBOT WELDER AND AVERAGE MANUFACTURING LABOR (In dollar per hour)

$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

Costo de un robot soldador Costo de la mano de obra en manufactura en México

2018

Cost of a robot welder Cost of manufacturing labor in Mexico

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

The digital revolution deepens business concentration in two countries

MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS BY REGION, 2015 (Billions of dollars)

Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), based on Peter C. Evans, “Emerging Platform Economy. Global Platform Survey”, presentation at the MIT Platform Strategy Summit, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 15 July 2016, and data from Fortune and Bloomberg.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

• 5. The 2030 Agenda is needed to

reduce the gender gap

Source: Kochhar, Kalpana, Sonali Jain-Chandra, Monique Newiak, eds. 2016. Women, Work, and Economic Growth: Leveling the Playing Field. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.

GENDER GAP IN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION (Percentage points, difference between male and female participation rates, ages 15 and over)

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

• 6. The 2030 Agenda is needed to prevent migration-related

conflict and achieve sustainable peace

MIGRANT POPUATION AS A PROPORTION OF TOTAL POPULATION, 1990, 2000 AND 2015 (Percentages)

Source: ECLAC, on the basis of United Nations, Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 Revision (POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015), New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Migration is a key feature of a more interconnected world

Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2016. People On The Move: Global Migration’s Impact And Opportunity. 2016

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

• 6. The 2030 Agenda is needed to protect the planet

and future generations’ right to development

• Fiscal stimuli should target

clean technologies.

• In a coordinated Keynesian

response, energy efficiency and emissions reduction must be at the heart of the expansionary thrust.

Source: ECLAC, on the basis of Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), “EM-DAT: International Disaster Database”, Brussels *online+ http://www.emdat.be.

LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN: NUMBER OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS LINKED TO CLIMATE CHANGE,a 1961-2015

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

“The greatest market failure the world has ever seen”

Source: ECLAC, on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF THE PREVAILING GROWTH PATTERN

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Multilateralism is essential for provision of global public goods

• Peace and security
• Human rights: political, economic, social, cultural and

environmental

• Global compact on migration
• Coordinated effort to boost aggregate demand
• Regulation of the international financial system and

control of tax evasion

• Multilateral mechanisms for technology transfer
• Internet governance and universal access

to the data revolution

• Climate security and implementation
• f the Paris Agreement

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

In short: to implement the 2030 Agenda

• Global, regional and national governance:

₋ production of global public goods ₋ reduction of power asymmetries in the global governance of monetary, financial, trade, technological and environmental matters ₋ institutional cooperation and coordination within and between countries ₋ development of low-carbon regional production chains

• Build the SDGs into national development plans, budgets and

business models.

• Measure what we collectively decide: new indicators
• Means of implementation: financing, technology, fair trade and

access to information.

• Intersectoral and inter-institutional coordination and

participation of all stakeholders, including business and civil society.

Coalitions between State, market and citizens

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

THE CRITICAL ROLE OF THE REGIONAL SPACE

• Complementarities between global and regional

institutions

• Defense of the weaker players
• Greater sense of belonging to regional and sub

regional institutions and looking for complementarities

• With interdependence, autonomy moves the

sub regional and regional

• Provision of public goods through a network of

global and regional institutions

Diplomats for the Future Alicia Bárcena

Changing the conversation: A new equation between State-market-society

• The public sphere as a forum for collective interests and not

simply for State or national matters

• Political agreements for a new social and intergenerational

covenant, with specific responsibilities and accountability systems

• Consolidation of a culture of collective development based on

tolerance of difference and diversity

• Strategic internally defined long-term vision that promotes

covenants between the stakeholders in production

• Policies of State —not only of the current government or

administration— channeled through democratic institutions