Detecting Chang Detecting Changes in W s in Water ter Qua Q - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Detecting Chang Detecting Changes in W s in Water ter Qua Q ualit lity i lit lit i in L i L L Long ong I I Islan I l and S d S d S d Soun ound d with with NERACOOS Buoy y Observations James O’Donnell, Todd Fake, Kay Howard-Strobel and Frank Bohlen y Marine Sciences, University of Connecticut

Overview Overview • NERACOOS • Hypoxia in Long Island Sound • Monitoring and Mapping program • Uncertainty in Area • Uncertainty in Duration • Conclusions – The current approach in not capable of resolving changes – Buoy measurements are better Buoy measurements are better – Ship surveys are essential to measure nutrients and plankton.

NERACOOS is a NOAA IOOS sponsored regional association that p g supports Ocean Observations in the northeastern United States and Canadian Maritime provinces Canadian Maritime provinces. Priorities include • Coastal hazards C l h d • Ocean & coastal ecosystem health • Ocean energy planning & gy p g management

Mean Density Field in winter and Summer

Aug 16 ‐ 19, 2005 Aug 16 19, 2005 • Black is less than 2 • Red & orange are <3 5 and are Hypoxic w rt CT standards • Red & orange are <3.5 and are Hypoxic w.r.t. CT standards

Long Term Trends in WQ Long Term Trends in WQ

Western Narrows Nitrogen

Red bars show the extent of Hypoxia at 3 0 level (CTDEP 2010) at 3.0 level (CTDEP 2010)

Nitrogen reduction is working, but hypoxia persists ? • There is evidence of this in other area e e s e de ce o t s ot e a ea • Nutrient ratio changes allow other species to bloom • Nitrogen fixation? • Climate shifts have led to more stratification and less ventilation. • We are not measuring accurately enough – Aliasing of high frequencies – Amplitude of inter ‐ annual modulation is large

Buoys reveal tidal, daily and weather ‐ b band variability and it is big. d b l d b 10 12' H2 21 23 18 18 16 16 12 10 H4 6' 22 F2 20 20 09 10 13 19 08 E1 E1 F3 F3 05 0 41 o N 2 D3 20 20 0 14 10 10 C2 2 25 03 WS 01 06 07 C1 10 10 04 1 02 15 15 0 0 B3 B3 10 54' EX A4 0 2 10 0 1 A2 48' 48' 36' 24' 12' 73 o W

Time Series from EXRK and A4 Error in a single ship sample as an estimate of the 14 day mean is ~2mg/l Variability >> precision Duration of hypoxia can be in error

How does the error influence the uncertainty in the hypoxic area? h h Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo Simulation 1. Assume the statistics of the error – 1. Gaussian normal with zero mean and std specified 2. Errors at stations are independent 2. Generate sample with these characteristics and add it to the data –compute A i data compute A i . 3. Repeat a large number (1000) times. 4. Compute standard deviation of A i . p i Need procedure to make contour maps and compute areas in the same way as CTDEP.

1. Download cruise data WQAUG07 2. Make Map with inverse distance weighting 3 3. Compute area <3.5 Compute area <3 5 4. Compare to CTDEP 5. Do MC simulation to get uncertainty

Uncertainty in the Area of hypoxia due to 2mg/l uncertainty in the survey data 45 square miles uncertainty in the survey data ~45 square miles or 15%. Note the median is N h di i IDW N=4 significanty lower than the 0.1 data alone value <A>=279  45 279  45 A This is a consequence of the sensitivity of the mapping algorithm to station spacing algorithm to station spacing 0 05 0.05 N=4 makes maps lumpy when stations are widely spaced. y p 0 Map depends on the units 100 200 300 400 500 chosen for the x&y Area m 2 2 dimensions .

Extent of Hypoxia (CTDEP 2010) with PRELIMINARY 95% confidence intervals for 3.5mg/l Compare Blue Bars to thick Red dashed lines Compare Blue Bars to thick Red dashed lines

Duration of hypoxia from 10 years of buoy observations at WLIS for a range of hypoxia thresholds

Duration of hypoxia from 10 years of buoy observations at EXRK for a range of hypoxia thresholds

• Uncertainty in AREA estimates suggest all Uncertainty in AREA estimates suggest all areas are consistent with the proposition that the area has remained constant the area has remained constant. • Note that the STD of the DURATION is ~15 ‐ 20 N h h STD f h DURATION i 15 20 days so 14 day survey intervals will not resolve i inter ‐ annual variability or long term changes l i bili l h due to management actions

Other Mapping Approaches • IDW with N=2 • Krigging/Gauss Markov Estimation/Objective Analysis Estimation/Objective Analysis • They don’t make much difference to the A but they do change the structure. the A but they do change the structure.

Figure 33 Along Sound cross sections of the distribution of dissolved oxygen Along Sound cross sections of the distribution of dissolved oxygen concentration along the dot ‐ dashed line in map during (a) June, (b) July, (c) August, and (d) September computed by monthly averaging the CTDEP data set and objective analysis.

Caveats on Analyses Caveats on Analyses • We need to carefully establish the effect of station spacing and examine uncertainty in i i d i i i other years. The uncertainty is not independent of the data. i d d f h d • The “errors” in the ship samples may not be independent • Magnitude of aliasing for other variables g g needs to be established to make more sense of trend and correlation analyses. y

Conclusions and Recommendations • Duration measured by buoys is the best (least uncertain) metric • Commit to support sustained buoy observations and expanded instrument deployment (nutrients) • Use analysis tools for hypoxic area, volume and duration with objective analysis and j y uncertainties. • Add Instruments to buoys to enhance resilience y • Add buoy east of the WLIS buoy to detect changes earlier. c a ges ea e .