Desired Future Conditions Board Meeting - March 11, 2014 Steve - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Desired Future Conditions Board Meeting - March 11, 2014 Steve - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 27, 2024 129 likes •446 views

Desired Future Conditions Board Meeting - March 11, 2014 Steve Walthour, General Manager DFC Considerations Aquifer uses or conditions within the management area, Water supply needs and water management strategies included in the state

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SLIDE 1

Desired Future Conditions

Board Meeting - March 11, 2014 Steve Walthour, General Manager

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SLIDE 2

DFC Considerations

  • Aquifer uses or conditions within the

management area,

  • Water supply needs and water management

strategies included in the state water plan,

  • Hydrological conditions, including the total

estimated recoverable storage and the average annual recharge, inflows, and discharge;

  • Environmental impacts, including impacts on

spring flow

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SLIDE 3

DFC Considerations (Continued)

  • Impact on subsidence;
  • Socioeconomic impacts reasonably

expected to occur;

  • The impact on the interests and rights in

private property.

  • The feasibility of achieving the desired

future condition;

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SLIDE 4

Ogallala Aquifer

  • Origin – Alluvial Fan

(Braided Streams)

  • Type - Unconfined

(Water Table)

  • GMA-1 Total Storage

259,100,000 Acre-Feet

  • District Total Storage

150,000,000 Acre-Feet

  • 75% Estimated

Recoverable Storage

TWDB GAM Task 13-025 (August 2013)

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SLIDE 5

GMA-1 Ogallala and Rita Blanca Aquifer DFC

Area 1 - 40 percent volume in storage remaining in 50 years in Dallam, Sherman, Hartley, and Moore Counties. Area 2 - 80 percent volume in storage remaining in 50 years in Hemphill County. Area 3 - 50 percent volume in storage remaining in 50 years in Hansford, Ochiltree, Lipscomb, Hutchinson, Roberts, Oldham, Potter, Carson, Gray, Wheeler, Randall, Armstrong, and Donley Counties; and

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SLIDE 6

Definitions

  • Total Storage - The volume of groundwater

that could possibly be removed by pumping that completely drains the aquifer. (includes varying water quality.)

  • Total Recoverable Storage - TWDB assumes

that between 25 and 75 percent of groundwater held within an aquifer can be effectively removed by pumping.

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SLIDE 7

District Ogallala Aquifer DFC

County Total Storage by County (Acre-Feet) Desired Future Condition (Percent of Storage) 2060 Total Storage (Acre-Feet) Dallam

22,000,000 40% 8,800,000

Hansford

22,000,000 50% 11,000,000

Hartley

27,000,000 40% 10,800,000

Hutchinson*

5,500,000 50% 2,750,000

Lipscomb

21,000,000 50% 10,500,000

Moore*

11,500,000 40% 4,600,000

Ochiltree

21,000,000 50% 10,500,000

Sherman

20,000,000 40% 8,000,000

Total

150,000,000 66,950,000

* Estimate based on the extent of Ogallala aquifer in the District – Walthour 2014(derived from TWDB GAM Task 13-025)

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SLIDE 8

District Ogallala Aquifer DFC by

Management Zone

Area 1 40%-50 Years

County Total Storage by County (Acre-Feet) 2060 Total Storage (Acre-Feet)

Dallam 22,000,000 8,800,000 Hartley 27,000,000 10,800,000 Moore* 11,500,000 4,600,000 Sherman 20,000,000 8,000,000 Total 80,500,000 32,200,000

Area 3 50%-50 Years

County Total Storage by County (Acre-Feet) 2060 Total Storage (Acre-Feet) Hansford 22,000,000 11,000,000 Hutchinson* 5,500,000 2,750,000 Lipscomb 21,000,000 10,500,000 Ochiltree 21,000,000 10,500,000 Total 69,500,000 34,750,000

* Estimate based on the extent of Ogallala aquifer in the District – Walthour 2014(derived from TWDB GAM Task 13-025)

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SLIDE 9

District Ogallala Aquifer DFC Compared to 75% Recoverable Storage

County Total Storage by County

(Acre-Feet)

Estimated Recoverable Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Aquifer Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Non- recoverable Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Recoverable Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Recoverable Storage Percent

Dallam

22,000,000 16,500,000 8,800,000 5,500,000 3,300,000 15%

Hansford

22,000,000 16,500,000 11,000,000 5,500,000 5,500,000 25%

Hartley

27,000,000 20,250,000 10,800,000 6,750,000 4,050,000 15%

Hutchinson

5,500,000 4,125,000 2,750,000 1,375,000 1,375,000 25%

Lipscomb

21,000,000 15,750,000 10,500,000 5,250,000 5,250,000 25%

Moore

11,500,000 8,625,000 4,600,000 2,875,000 1,725,000 15%

Ochiltree

21,000,000 15,750,000 10,500,000 5,250,000 5,250,000 25%

Sherman

20,000,000 15,000,000 8,000,000 5,000,000 3,000,000 15%

Total

150,000,000 112,500,000 66,950,000 37,500,000 29,450,000 20%

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SLIDE 10

District Ogallala Aquifer DFC Compared to 85% Recoverable Storage(Optimistic)

County Total Storage by County

(Acre-Feet)

Estimated Recoverable Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Aquifer Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Non- recoverable Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Recoverable Storage

(Acre-Feet)

2060 Recoverable Storage Percent

Dallam

22,000,000 18,700,000 8,800,000 3,300,000 5,500,000 25%

Hansford

22,000,000 18,700,000 11,000,000 3,300,000 7,700,000 35%

Hartley

27,000,000 22,950,000 10,800,000 4,050,000 6,750,000 25%

Hutchinson

5,500,000 4,675,000 2,750,000 825,000 1,925,000 35%

Lipscomb

21,000,000 17,850,000 10,500,000 3,150,000 7,350,000 35%

Moore

11,500,000 9,775,000 4,600,000 1,725,000 2,875,000 25%

Ochiltree

21,000,000 17,850,000 10,500,000 3,150,000 7,350,000 35%

Sherman

20,000,000 17,000,000 8,000,000 3,000,000 5,000,000 25%

Total

150,000,000 127,500,000 66,950,000 22,500,000 44,450,000 30%

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SLIDE 11

County Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dallam

404,607 352,474 309,076 270,317 234,813 203,491

Hansford

284,588 262,271 240,502 218,405 197,454 177,536

Hartley

424,813 368,430 319,149 276,075 238,186 205,137

Hutchinson

61,306 58,383 50,723 44,360 39,048 34,580

Lipscomb

290,510 283,794 273,836 256,406 237,765 219,100

Moore

193,001 186,154 162,142 137,321 114,658 95,490

Ochiltree

269,463 246,475 224,578 203,704 183,227 164,265

Sherman

322,683 300,908 263,747 229,122 197,480 169,172

Total

2,250,971 2,058,889 1,843,753 1,635,710 1,442,631 1,268,771

Ogallala Modeled Available Groundwater (MAG) Acre-feet

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SLIDE 12

Area 1 – Ogallala DFC 40%-50 Years MAG (Acre-Feet)

County Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dallam 404,607 352,474 309,076 270,317 234,813 203,491 Hartley 424,813 368,430 319,149 276,075 238,186 205,137 Moore 193,001 186,154 162,142 137,321 114,658 95,490 Sherman 322,683 300,908 263,747 229,122 197,480 169,172 Total 1,345,104 1,207,966 1,054,114 912,835 785,137 673,290

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SLIDE 13

Area 3 – Ogallala DFC 50%-50 Years MAG (Acre-Feet)

County Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Hansford 284,588 262,271 240,502 218,405 197,454 177,536 Hutchinson 61,306 58,383 50,723 44,360 39,048 34,580 Lipscomb 290,510 283,794 273,836 256,406 237,765 219,100 Ochiltree 269,463 246,475 224,578 203,704 183,227 164,265 Total 905,867 850,923 789,639 722,875 657,494 595,481

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SLIDE 14

GMA-1 Dockum DFC

  • Average decline will be no more than 30 feet

in 50 years.

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SLIDE 15

Dockum Aquifer

  • Origin – Alluvial Fan

(Braided Streams)

  • Type - confined (Artesian)
  • GMA-1 Storage

319,000,000 Acre-Feet

  • District Storage

170,000,000 Acre-Feet

  • Less than 25% Estimated

Recoverable Storage In District.

Source: TWDB GAM 10-19 V2

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SLIDE 16
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SLIDE 17

SCHEMATIC DIAGRAM SHOWING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN UNCONFINED AND CONFINED AQUIFERS.

Source: Modified from TWDB GAM Task 13-025

(Ogallala Aquifer) (Dockum Aquifer)

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SLIDE 18

Dockum Aquifer Estimated Recoverable Storage

County Total Storage 25 percent of Total Storage Dallam 81,000,000 20,250,000 Hartley 93,000,000 23,250,000 Moore 11,000,000 2,750,000 Sherman 1,200,000 300,000 Total 186,200,000 46,550,000 North Plains GCD Total 170,000,000 42,500,000

Derived from TWDB GAM Task 13-025

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SLIDE 19

Dockum Observations

  • Dockum Total Storage = 170,000,000 acre-feet
  • Ogallala Total Storage = 150,000,000 acre-feet
  • Question: Why can’t we pump more Dockum?
  • Answer: we could if we had unlimited resources to

produce water and we didn’t mind the water quality.

– Most stored and recoverable groundwater is in very low productive strata. – Aquifer water pressure drives productivity. Water Pressure is effected by:

  • The ability to move water into place from elsewhere (water like a

water hose)

  • The weight overlying strata (Ogallala)
  • Recharge
  • Pumping
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SLIDE 20

Year County 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Dallam 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 4,034 Hartley 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,567 3,567 Moore 5,395 5,395 5,395 5,395 5,395 5,395 Sherman 591 591 591 591 591 591 Total 13,587 13,587 13,587 13,587 13,587 13,587

Dockum Modeled Available Groundwater (MAG) Acre-feet

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SLIDE 21

North Plains GCD Production Trend Ogallala and Dockum Aquifers

County Year Average Annual Production (Acre-Feet) 2010 2011 2012 Dallam 302,561 374,733 371,965 349,753 Hansford 129,984 234,903 218,793 194,560 Hartley 401,506 519,684 458,696 459,962 Hutchinson 42,023 73,747 72,230 62,667 Lipscomb 33,826 52,003 55,572 47,134 Moore 178,336 271,684 234,688 228,236 Ochiltree 62,269 114,392 109,213 95,291 Sherman 261,608 407,265 348,012 338,962 Total 1,412,113 2,048,411 1,869,169 1,776,564

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SLIDE 22

District Annual Production 2010-2012 Compared to Ogallala MAG+ Dockum MAG

County Average Annual Production 2010-2012 (Acre-Feet) MAG Average 2010-2012 (Acre-Feet) Annual Average DFC Reserve Deposit/ Withdrawal MAG Percent Above or Below Production Dallam 349,753 403,428 53,675 13% Hansford 194,560 282,356 87,796 31% Hartley 459,962 422,742

  • 37,220
  • 9%

Hutchinson 62,667 61,014

  • 1,653
  • 3%

Lipscomb 47,134 289,838 242,705 84% Moore 228,236 197,711

  • 30,525
  • 15%

Ochiltree 95,291 267,164 171,873 64% Sherman 338,962 321,097

  • 17,865
  • 6%

Total 1,776,564 2,231,763 455,198 20%

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SLIDE 23

Area 1 - Annual Production 2010-2012 Compared to Ogallala MAG+ Dockum MAG

County Average Annual Production 2010-2012 (Acre-Feet) MAG Average 2010-2012 (Acre-Feet) MAG Reserve Deposit/ Withdrawal (Acre-Feet) MAG Percent Above or Below Production Dallam 349,753 403,428 53,675 13% Hartley 459,962 422,742

  • 37,220
  • 9%

Moore 228,236 197,711

  • 30,525
  • 15%

Sherman 338,962 321,097

  • 17,865
  • 6%

Total 1,376,913 1,331,390

  • 45,522
  • 3%
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SLIDE 24

Area 3 - Annual Production 2010-2012 Compared to Ogallala MAG

County Average Annual Production 2010-2012 (Acre-Feet) MAG Average 2010-2012 (Acre-Feet) MAG Reserve Deposit/ Withdrawal (Acre-Feet) MAG Percent Above or Below Production Hansford 194,560 282,356 87,796 31% Hutchinson 62,667 61,014

  • 1,653
  • 3%

Lipscomb 47,134 289,838 242,705 84% Ochiltree 95,291 267,164 171,873 64% Total 399,652 900,373 500,721 56%

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SLIDE 25

Impacts on Subsidence

None

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SLIDE 26

Environmental Impacts on Springs

  • Preliminary Information

– Springs will continue to decline across the District – Surface water dependent on spring flow will be adversely affected.

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SLIDE 27

Area 1 Socio-Economic Affects

Direct Indirect Induced Total Change from Uncon- strained % Change From Uncon- strained Unconstrained Output2 $36,625 $19,054 $2,871 $58,550 Value Added2 $15,971 $6,430 $1,706 $24,108 Employment3 3,297 2,516 548 6,360 County Weighted DFC Output2 $34,669 $17,678 $2,675 $55,022

  • $3,528
  • 6%

Value Added2 $15,063 $5,945 $1,590 $22,598

  • $1,510
  • 6%

Employment3 3,297 2,313 511 6,122

  • 239
  • 4%

Regional DFC Output2 $35,391 $18,180 $2,746 $56,317

  • $2,233
  • 4%

Value Added2 $15,396 $6,122 $1,632 $23,150

  • $958
  • 4%

Employment3 3,298 2,387 525 6,209

  • 151
  • 2%

1 Impacts include both forward-linked and backward-linked effects. 2 Millions of dollars – discounted at 3% over the 50-year time horizon. 3 Average annual employment. (Amosson and others, January 2014)

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SLIDE 28

Area 3 Socio-Economic Affects

Direct Indirect Induced Total Change From Uncon- strained % Change From Uncon- strained Unconstrained Output2 $14,521 $6,814 $1,186 $22,521 Value Added2 $5,753 $2,505 $706 $8,963 Employment3 1,195 976 225 2,395 DFC Output2 $14,521 $6,814 $1,186 $22,521 $0 0% Value Added2 $5,753 $2,505 $706 $8,963 $0 0% Employment3 1,195 976 225 2,395 0%

1 Impacts include both forward-linked and backward-linked effects. 2 Millions of dollars – discounted at 3% over the 50-year time horizon. 3 Average annual employment. (Amosson and others, January 2014)

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SLIDE 29

Private Property Rights Impacts and Interest

County County Acres Producing Unit Acres Percentage

Dallam 963,494.81 426,935.13 44.31 Hartley 781,882.36 398,454.50 50.96 Sherman 590,631.37 332,350.75 56.27 Moore 445,177.69 227,927.90 51.20 Hansford 589,622.39 231,227.05 39.22 Hutchinson 174,574.34 90,262.19 51.70 Ochiltree 588,346.45 138,522.01 23.54 Lipscomb 597,097.57 74,380.07 12.46 Total 4,730,826.98 1,920,059.58 40.59

Source: North Plains GIS

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SLIDE 30

Feasibility of Achieving DFCs

  • Area -1

– Ogallala

  • Production is tracking

slightly above MOD.

– Dockum

  • Production unknown.
  • We need further

investigate the conditions

  • f the Dockum.
  • Area-3

– Ogallala

  • Production tracking

well below MOD.

– Dockum

  • Not Present