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Decarbonising UK energy
Decarbonising UK energy:
A view of energy security
Professor John Loughhead OBE FREng FTSE Chief Scientific Adviser
Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
Decarbonising UK energy: A view of energy security Professor John - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Decarbonising UK energy: A view of energy security Professor John - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Decarbonising UK energy: A view of energy security Professor John Loughhead OBE FREng FTSE Chief Scientific Adviser Decarbonising UK energy Great Britains Energy Vectors in GWh per day Decarbonising UK energy Great Britains Energy
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Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
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Decarbonising UK energy
Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
Transport fuels = Aviation Fuels + DERV (Diesel) + Motor Spirit (Petrol)
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Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
Decarbonising UK energy
Electricity from nuclear generation
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Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
Decarbonising UK energy
Electricity from weather dependent renewable sources (solar+wind+non_PS_hydro)
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Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
Decarbonising UK energy
Electricity from coal generation
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Great Britain’s Energy Vectors – in GWh per day
Decarbonising UK energy
Total natural gas including exports Exports of natural gas
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Natural gas flow chart 2016 Twh
Decarbonising UK energy
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Peak electricity demand scenarios – National Grid
Source: National Grid, Future Energy Scenarios, July 2016 (http://fes.nationalgrid.com/ )
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Offshore Wind
- Offshore wind is already a major part of our energy supply, and key to
- ur future
- UK market is the largest in the world - and will remain so to 2020 and
beyond
- We have a strong framework to drive investment in offshore wind –
delivered through Electricity Market Reform
- We are already securing the economic benefits – and the potential is
huge
- The UK is at the forefront of delivering cost reductions in offshore wind
– reflected in reduced “strike prices” over the decade
- Some rationalisation of the “pipeline” of projects is to be expected – a
sign of the sector maturing
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Figure 1 BEIS Energy and Emissions Projections (EEP) 2016 Reference Case Gas Demand and Other Projections
Decarbonising UK energy
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Table 1 UK Gas Demand Projections
Source Coverage/Scenario
Demand (bcm)
Key Assumptions
2020 2030 2035 National Grid Future Energy Scenarios (2017) Two Degrees 77 62 55
Cost optimal pathway to meet the UK’s 2050 carbon emissions reduction target.
Slow Progression 74 67 59
Low economic growth and affordability. With limited money, the focus is on cost efficient longer-term environmental policies.
Steady State 77 88 81
Business as usual prevails and the focus is on ensuring security of supply at a low cost for
- consumers. The least green scenario.
Consumer Power 80 89 81
High affordability, with no new targets introduced, focus on consumer’s desires.
BEIS EEP (2016)[1] Reference Scenario 74 68 65
Based on central assumptions of growth and fossil fuel prices. Contains all agreed policies where decisions on policy design are sufficiently advanced to allow robust estimates of impact.
Low Prices 87 101 110
Assumptions similar to reference scenario but using low fossil fuel price assumptions
High Prices 69 66 62
Assumptions similar to reference scenario but using high fossil fuel price assumptions
Low Growth 74 67 64
Assumptions similar to reference scenario but using low economic growth assumptions
High Growth 74 68 65
Assumptions similar to reference scenario but using high economic growth assumptions
Existing Policies 75 77 78
Based on central estimates of price and economic growth, but not planned policies.
Baseline Policies 87 101 110
Based on central price and growth assumptions, but excludes the impact of Climate Change policies brought in since the 2007 Low Carbon Transition Plan.
Wood Mackenzie (H1 2017) Central 72 63 59
IHS (2017) Central 72 69 69
Decarbonising UK energy
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Figure 2 – UK gas demand range and production projections
Decarbonising UK energy
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Table 1 UK Gas Demand Projections
Decarbonising UK energy
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Final Energy Consumption (including international aviation)
Decarbonising UK energy
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Electricity Natural gas Petroleum products Renewables Solid / manufactured fuels3 Total energy consumption4
Years from 2000
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Changes over time in gas production and demand
Decarbonising UK energy