David G. Loomis, Ph. D. President, Strategic Economic Research, LLC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PLEASANT RIDGE EXHIBIT 118 David G. Loomis, Ph. D. President, Strategic Economic Research, LLC } Ph.D. in Economics, Temple University, 1995 } Professor of Economics, Illinois State University, since 1996 (full professor 2010) }


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David G. Loomis, Ph. D. President, Strategic Economic Research, LLC

PLEASANT RIDGE EXHIBIT 118

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} Ph.D. in Economics, Temple University,

1995

} Professor of Economics, Illinois State

University, since 1996 (full professor 2010)

} Director, Center for Renewable Energy, ISU,

since 2007

} Director, Illinois Wind Working Group, since

2006

} Over 25 peer-reviewed publications } Expert testimony before County Boards,

Senate Committees and regulatory bodies

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} Quantify the economic impacts of the

Pleasant Ridge project

} Highlight the school district tax benefits

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} Jobs and Economic Development Impacts

(JEDI) model

  • Developed by the National Renewable Energy

Laboratory

  • Wind Energy Model W4.28.14
  • Based on the IMPLAN model
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Initial CapEx + Ongoing Operations Expenditures Initial Investment + Regional Multiplier Effect Local Expenditures State/Regional Expenditures Non-Region Expenditures Economic 
 “Leakage”

5

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  • 1. On-site Labor

and Professional Services

  • 2. Equipment

Production and Supply Chain

  • 3. Induced Economic Activity

(household purchases due to injection of income)

6

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} Results are an estimate and highly dependent on

the assumptions used.

} Results are not a measure of project viability. } Results report gross jobs not net jobs. } Assumptions around local sourcing and

procurement are fundamental in determining local economic activity.

} Jobs are reported as Full-Time Equivalent (FTE)

jobs.

7

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¡ Livingsto ton County ty ¡ Sta tate te of Illinois ¡ Constr tructi tion ¡ ¡ ¡ Project t De Development t and Onsite te Labor Impacts ts ¡ 177 ¡ 293 ¡ Turbine and Supply Chain Impacts ts ¡ 173 ¡ 350 ¡ Induced Impacts ts ¡ 34 ¡ 151 ¡ New Local Jo Jobs during Constr tructi tion ¡ 384 ¡ 794 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Operati tions ¡ ¡ ¡ Onsite te Labor Impacts ts ¡ 13 ¡ 13 ¡ Local Revenue and Supply Chain Impacts ts ¡ 56 ¡ 71 ¡ Induced Impacts ts ¡ 23 ¡ 53 ¡ New Local Long Term Jo Jobs ¡ 92 ¡ 137 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

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¡ Livingsto ton County ty ¡ Sta tate te of Illinois ¡ Constr tructi tion ¡ ¡ ¡ Project t De Development t and Onsite te Ea Earnings Impacts ts ¡ $14,225,724 ¡ $22,587,945 ¡ Turbine and Supply Chain Impacts ts ¡ $8,621,857 ¡ $19,107,481 ¡ Induced Impacts ts ¡ $1,192,681 ¡ $8,942,938 ¡ New Local Ea Earnings during Constr tructi tion ¡ $24,040,262 ¡ $50,638,365 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Operati tions ¡ ¡ ¡ Onsite te Labor Impacts ts ¡ $992,775 ¡ $992,775 ¡ Local Revenue and Supply Chain Impacts ts ¡ $2,213,887 ¡ $4,381,792 ¡ Induced Impacts ts ¡ $835,483 ¡ $3,277,260 ¡ New Local Long Term Ea Earnings ¡ $4,042,145 ¡ $8,651,827 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

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¡ Livingsto ton County ty ¡ Sta tate te of Illinois ¡ Constr tructi tion ¡ ¡ ¡ Project t De Development t and Onsite te Jo Jobs Impacts ts on Outp tput ¡ $15,179,929 ¡ $23,122,217 ¡ Turbine and Supply Chain Impacts ts ¡ $36,192,872 ¡ $47,284,227 ¡ Induced Impacts ts ¡ $4,330,233 ¡ $24,624,855 ¡ New Local Outp tput t during Constr tructi tion ¡ $55,703,034 ¡ $95,031,298 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ Operati tions (Annual) ¡ ¡ ¡ Onsite te Labor Impacts ts ¡ $992,775 ¡ $992,775 ¡ Local Revenue and Supply Chain Impacts ts ¡ $16,068,530 ¡ $19,417,277 ¡ Induced Impacts ts ¡ $3,033,528 ¡ $9,024,953 ¡ New Local Long Term Outp tput ¡ $20,094,833 ¡ $29,435,006 ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

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Epilogue

Assumptions

!

Illinois’ financial crisis will continue

  • State income tax will be reduced
  • GSA entitlement will continue in proration
  • Transportation reimbursement will continue

in proration

!

EAV will increase by 2.2% annually

!

Plaintiffs will prevail in pension suits

  • Compromise: Legislature & schools will

share liability

!

Health care costs will rise

  • Premiums will increase significantly
  • Less-accommodating plans will follow

!

Enrollment trends will continue

  • Enrollment change will be flat
  • Low income, at-risk, special needs

populations will increase

!

District will have to adapt staff to at- risk & special needs growth & complexity

!

Technology, an integral part of teaching & learning, will lose its efficacy before (likely long before) it can be replaced Recommendations

!

Approach CBA negotiations with eye on diminishing revenues, pension cost shift, and health care changes

!

Continue to use CSFT (Livingston sales tax) resources strategically

  • Life-safety
  • Security/telecommunications
  • Technology infrastructure, permanent

installments

  • Pay-as-you-go OBM

!

Suspend major purchases otherwise, or

  • Consider entering further lease agreements

for technology, bus equipment

!

Reduce staff where possible

  • Increase regular class sizes to state

averages

  • Adopt attendance centers to maximize

efficiency in staffing, facilities

!

Eliminate all <1.5 mile bus pick-ups

!

Consider conventional revenue increase

  • Working cash bonds ($4.33 Million w/3-year

retirement @ $.75)

  • Permanent rate increase in education and

transportation

!

Encourage alternatives to property taxation

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} Prairie Central is “Financial Review” by the

Illinois State Board of Education and “monitored for potential downward trends

} Annual budget deficits are projected from

2015-2019 growing to over $1.4 million in debt by 2019.

} Reductions of staff; suspension of purchases

and elimination of bus pickups are all recommended by the school superintendent.

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} Assumes that the valuation of the wind farm is the

same as set forth in Public Act 095-0644.

} Assumes inflation is constant at 2.2% and the

depreciation is 4% until it reaches the maximum of 70%.

} Assumes a constant overall tax rate of 9.3471% and a

constant school district tax rate of 4.8215%.

} Assumes that the wind farm is placed in service on

January 1, 2016 at a fair cash value of $103,295,187 according to Public Act 095-0644.

} Assumes that the wind farm is decommissioned in 20

years and pays no more taxes.

} Assumes no changes in the school funding formula or

the foundation level determined by the state.

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Ye Year ¡ Taxable V Taxable Valu alue e

  • f
  • f Win

Wind Farm d Farm ¡ Tota tal Taxes ¡ Tota tal School ¡ Reducti tion in Sta tate te Aid Aid ¡ Net t School Rev Reven enue ¡ ¡ 2016 2016 ¡ $34,431,728.97 ¡ $3,218,376 ¡ $1,660,133 ¡ 0 ¡ $1,660,133 ¡ ¡ 2017 2017 ¡ $33,781,658 ¡ $3,157,613 ¡ $1,628,789 ¡ $1,032,952 ¡ $595,838 ¡ ¡ 2018 2018 ¡ $33,086,319 ¡ $3,092,619 ¡ $1,595,263 ¡ $1,013,450 ¡ $581,814 ¡ ¡ 2019 2019 ¡ $32,344,034 ¡ $3,023,236 ¡ $1,559,474 ¡ $992,590 ¡ $566,885 ¡ ¡ 2020 2020 ¡ $31,553,076 ¡ $2,949,304 ¡ $1,521,338 ¡ $970,321 ¡ $551,017 ¡ ¡ 2021 2021 ¡ $30,711,660 ¡ $2,870,656 ¡ $1,480,769 ¡ $946,592 ¡ $534,177 ¡ ¡ 2022 2022 ¡ $29,817,951 ¡ $2,787,120 ¡ $1,437,678 ¡ $921,350 ¡ $516,329 ¡ ¡ 2023 2023 ¡ $28,870,054 ¡ $2,698,519 ¡ $1,391,975 ¡ $894,539 ¡ $497,437 ¡ ¡ … ¡ … ¡ … ¡ … ¡ … ¡ … ¡ 2031 2031 ¡ $19,088,960 ¡ $1,784,268 ¡ $920,378 ¡ $616,375 ¡ $304,003 ¡ ¡ 2032 2032 ¡ $17,558,025 ¡ $1,641,170 ¡ $846,564 ¡ $572,669 ¡ $273,895 ¡ ¡ 2033 2033 ¡ $15,950,490 ¡ $1,490,912 ¡ $769,056 ¡ $526,741 ¡ $242,315 ¡ ¡ 2034 2034 ¡ $15,282,564 ¡ $1,428,480 ¡ $736,852 ¡ $478,515 ¡ $258,337 ¡ ¡ 2035 2035 ¡ $15,618,780 ¡ $1,459,906 ¡ $753,063 ¡ $458,477 ¡ $294,586 ¡ ¡ 2036 2036 ¡ $15,962,393 ¡ $1,492,024 ¡ $769,630 ¡ $468,563 ¡ $301,067 ¡ ¡ 2037 2037 ¡ $16,313,566 ¡ $1,524,849 ¡ $786,562 ¡ $478,872 ¡ $307,690 ¡ ¡ 2038 2038 ¡ $0 ¡ $0 ¡ $0 ¡ $489,407 ¡

  • $489,407 ¡ ¡

¡

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} Pleasant Ridge Wind Energy Project will

support:

  • 384 new local jobs in Livingston County during

construction

  • 92 new local long-term jobs in Livingston County

during the life of the project

  • $55.7 million in economic output during

construction

  • $20.1 million in economic output annually during

the life of the project

  • An average annual net increase of $428,408 to

Prairie Central School District