[PPT] - Dark Matter 2017-2037 Very Biased Futurism Gordan Krnjaic DM PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Dark Matter 2017-2037

DM Working Group, April 20, 2017

Very Biased Futurism

Gordan Krnjaic

1

SLIDE 2

Bad news: DM-SM interactions are not obligatory

If nature is unkind, we may never know the right scale

Good news: most discoverable DM candidates are in

thermal equilibrium with us in the early universe

Why is this good news?

mDM

mP l

∼ 1019 GeV

∼ 100M

must be composite must be bosonic

∼ 100 eV

∼ 10−20 eV

15

Challenge Accepted (w/ caveats)

2

SLIDE 3

Bad news: DM-SM interactions are not obligatory

If nature is unkind, we may never know the right scale

Good news: most discoverable DM candidates are in

thermal equilibrium with us in the early universe

Why is this good news?

mDM

mP l

∼ 1019 GeV

∼ 100M

must be composite must be bosonic

∼ 100 eV

∼ 10−20 eV

15

Challenge Accepted (w/ caveats)

2) Require model hypothesis for discovery 1) Non-gravitational DM interactions are optional 3) Searches reflect past/present theory priors

3

SLIDE 4

Bad news: DM-SM interactions are not obligatory

If nature is unkind, we may never know the right scale

Good news: most discoverable DM candidates are in

thermal equilibrium with us in the early universe

Why is this good news?

mDM

mP l

∼ 1019 GeV

∼ 100M

must be composite must be bosonic

∼ 100 eV

∼ 10−20 eV

15

Challenge Accepted (w/ caveats)

2) Require model hypothesis for discovery 1) Non-gravitational DM interactions are optional 3) Searches reflect past/present theory priors Everything subject to violent revolution! This talk: some representative extrapolations of recent work Bias towards novel, concrete ideas (except your favorite!)

4

SLIDE 5

Organizing Principle for Progress

Impact = Prob.(DM scenario) × Coverage(Technology)

Estimated impact of a new search strategy

Probability a given DM scenario is realized in nature New parameter space covered by given search

Nobody agrees here Everybody agrees here Imperfect measure, but gives rough intuition

5

SLIDE 6

Many Paths Forward

Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Applying awesome technology to exotics

Prob.(WIMPy/ALP) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Prob.(DM exists) = 1 − ✏

Prob.(pBH/topological defect...) ∼ 10−4 − 10−5 Prob.(WIMP/Axion/RHν) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

(✏ ⌧ 1)

6

SLIDE 7

Many Paths Forward

Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Applying awesome technology to exotics

Prob.(WIMPy/ALP) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Prob.(DM exists) = 1 − ✏

Prob.(pBH/topological defect...) ∼ 10−4 − 10−5 Prob.(WIMP/Axion/RHν) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

(✏ ⌧ 1)

7

SLIDE 8

Cosmic Surveys S-IV

Successors: LSST, WFIRST, DESI, Euclid…

90 60 30 −30 −60

RA (deg)

−70 −50 −30 −10 10

Dec (deg)

Ret II J0344.3-4331 J2251.2-5836 Hor I J0443.8-5017 J2339.9-5424 J0222.7-5217 Gru I Hor II Kim 2 DES 1 J2204-4626 J2356-5935 J0531-2801 J2337-6316 J0002-6051 J0345-6026 J0117-1725 J2038-4609 LMC SMC Fornax Sculptor Carina Phoenix Tucana Cetus NGC 1399 NGC 1395 NGC 1407 NGC 247 NGC 253 NGC 300 NGC 55

0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 Stellar Density (arcmin−2)

Dwarf galaxies, cluster mergers, strong/micro lensing,

DES Collaboration 1601.00329

DM distribution (self-interactions?) See Alex & Ting’s talk

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SLIDE 9

Strong Lensing & Substructure

(2) ic h w ly e

r

), nt at re e y h s.

10

−6

10

−5

10

−4

10

−3

10

−2

10

−1

10 10

1

10

2

k [pc−1] P (k) [pc2]

M < 5 × 106M⊙ M < 5 × 107M⊙ 10−4 10−3 10−2 10−1

NFW Rs = Rti d a l/4 NFW Rti d a l → Rti d a l/4 point masses NFW Rs = Rti d a l/8 ∆α = 0.5

ALMA T ∼ 1 − 10 yr.

Coverage ∼ 3σ + (substructure evidence)

10

−2

10

−1

10 10

1

k [pc−1] P (k) [pc2]

10−4 10−3

Statistically detect unresolved DM substructure

Holder et. al. 1403.2720

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SLIDE 10

Future CMB Potpourri

1 10 100 1000 10000 mχ[GeV] 10−27 10−26 10−25 10−24 10−23 feff σv [cm3 s−1]

Thermal relic Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP WMAP9 CVL Possible interpretations for: AMS-02/Fermi/Pamela Fermi GC

Coverage ∼ few − 10

Annihilation bounds

CMB S4 Collaboration 1610.02743

Important Neff Benchmark any* light species in equilib.

δN BSM

eff

& 0.027 δN S4

eff < 0.02 − 0.03

Planck ‘15 Tensor modes constrain axion DM

Ωa,QCD ΩDM . 10−12 ✓ fa 1016 GeV ◆5/6 ✓0.1 r ◆

T ∼ 5 − 20 yr.

10

SLIDE 11

Many Paths Forward

Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Applying awesome technology to exotics

Prob.(WIMPy/ALP) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Prob.(DM exists) = 1 − ✏

Prob.(pBH/topological defect...) ∼ 10−4 − 10−5 Prob.(WIMP/Axion/RHν) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

(✏ ⌧ 1)

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SLIDE 12

Nuclear Recoil Direct Detection

0.1 1 10

mX [GeV]

10

45

10

44

10

43

10

42

10

41

10

40

10

39

10

38

10

37

σ [cm

2]

SuperCDMS Si HV DAMIC100 NEWS - H NEWS - He NEWS - Ne

Coherent Neutrino Bckg. Current Constraints

gn/mφ

2=10

2

gn/mφ

2=10

5

gn/mφ

2=10

3

gn/mφ

2=10

4

gn/mφ

2=10

6

1 10 100 1000 104 1050 1049 1048 1047 1046 1045 1044 1043 1042 1041 1040 1039 1014 1013 1012 1011 1010 109 108 107 106 105 104 103 WIMP Mass GeVc2 WIMPnucleon cross section cm2 WIMPnucleon cross section pb

7Be

Neutrinos

N E U T RIN O C OH ER EN T S CA T TE R ING NE UT R IN O C O H E REN T S C A TTERIN G

(Green&ovals)&Asymmetric&DM&& (Violet&oval)&Magne7c&DM& (Blue&oval)&Extra&dimensions&& (Red&circle)&SUSY&MSSM& &&&&&MSSM:&Pure&Higgsino&& &&&&&MSSM:&A&funnel& &&&&&MSSM:&BinoEstop&coannihila7on& &&&&&MSSM:&BinoEsquark&coannihila7on& &

8B

Neutrinos Atmospheric and DSNB Neutrinos CDMS II Ge (2009) Xenon100 (2012)

CRESST CoGeNT (2012) CDMS Si (2013)

E D E L W E I S S ( 2 1 1 )

DAMA

S I M P L E ( 2 1 2 ) ZEPLIN-III (2012) COUPP (2012)

SuperCDMS Soudan Low Threshold XENON 10 S2 (2013) CDMS-II Ge Low Threshold (2011)

SuperCDMS Soudan Xenon1T LZ LUX DarkSide G2 DarkSide 50 D E A P 3 6 PICO250-CF3I PICO250-C3F8 SNOLAB S u p e r C D M S

Expanding to lower masses & neutrino floor

Prob.(WIMP or similar) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

Coverage ∼ 103 − 104

Profumo 1507.07531 Snowmass 1310.8327

T ∼ 0 − 10 yr.

Super CDMS, Pico DAMIC, LUX, PandaX, Xenon NT…

See Lauren/Hugh’s talks

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SLIDE 13

High Energy Colliders

[TeV]

χ ∼

m

1 2 3 4 5 6 wino

disappearing tracks

higgsino ) H ~ / B ~ mixed ( ) W ~ / B ~ mixed ( gluino coan. stop coan. squark coan.

Collider Limits

100 TeV 14 TeV

Low, Wang 1504.07237

HL-LHC, ILC, FCC, 100 TeV mono-X searches

Prob.(WIMP or similar) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

Coverage ∼ few − 101

Fox, Harnik,Kopp,Tsai 1103.0240 Goodman,Ibe, Rajaraman, Shepherd,Tait, Yu 1008.1783

T ∼ 0 − 20 + yr.

13

SLIDE 14

Axion Detection

Kahn, Safdi, Thaler 1602.01086

a h R B r

()
()

γγ (-) ν=/π = = = = = = = = = = = =

Jeff = gaγγ p 2ρDM cos(mat)B0.

Coverage ∼ 103 − 107

Prob.(Axion DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

T ∼ few − 10 yr.

14

SLIDE 15

Axion Detection

Graham, Rajendran 1306.6088

Coverage ∼ 103 − 107 Prob.(Axion DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

SN 1987A New Force QCD Axion ALP DM ADMX 1014 1012 1010 108 106 104 102 100 1020 1018 1016 1014 1012 1010 108 106 104 102 104 106 108 1010 1012 1014 mass eV gaNN GeV1 frequency Hz

Bunker et. al. (CASPEr) 1306.6089

T ∼ few − 10 yr. see Aaron’s talk

15

SLIDE 16

Many Paths Forward

Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Applying awesome technology to exotics

Prob.(WIMPy/ALP) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Prob.(DM exists) = 1 − ✏

Prob.(pBH/topological defect...) ∼ 10−4 − 10−5 Prob.(WIMP/Axion/RHν) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

(✏ ⌧ 1)

16

SLIDE 17

Thermal Equilibrium Advantage #2: Narrows Mass Range

mDM

∼ 100M

∼ 10−20 eV

too hot too much < 10 keV > 100 TeV

GeV

mZ

MeV

nonthermal nonthermal

mP l ∼ 1019 GeV

“WIMPs”

Direct Detection (Alan Robinson) Indirect Detection (Alex Drlica-Wagner) Colliders (Yang Bai)

{

Light DM

{

18

< MeV

Neff / BBN

Previously overlooked viable thermal window Important Benchmark Targets

Prob.(WIMP) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2 Prob.(< GeV thermal) ≈ 10−2 − 10−3

Need new forces/richer pheno SM charged, more bounds

17

SLIDE 18

Proton Fixed Target (Neutrino Factories)

Be Target Earth Air Decay Pipe Steel Beam Dump MiniBooNE Detector p

π0 V γ χ†

χ

N

χ 50 m 4 m 487 m

p Z γ A π0, η χ1 χ2

A0

Z, p, n, e

Batell, Pospelov, Ritz 0903.0363 Coverage ∼ 102 − 103

T ∼ 0 − 10 yr.

(GeV)

χ

m

2 −

10

1 −

10 1

4

)

V

/m

χ

'(m α

2

ε Y =

11 −

10

10 −

10

9 −

10

8 −

10

7 −

10

LSND E137 BaBar +invis.

+

π →

+

K NA64 invis. → ψ J/ Nucleon Detection Direct Electron Detection Direct Relic Density favored

µ

α

' = 0.5 α ,

χ

= 3m

V

m MB 90% CL MB 90% Sensitivity σ 1 ± σ 2 ±

NOvA, DUNE @ FNAL Mini/MicroBooNE, SeaQuest

MiniBooNE Collaboration 1702.02688

χ χ χ χ

Prob.(< GeV thermal DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

18

SLIDE 19

Proton Fixed Target (Neutrino Factories)

Coloma, Dobrescu, Frugiuele, Harnik 1512.03852 Batell, deNiverville, McKeen, Pospelov, Ritz 1405.7049 Frugiuele 1701.05464

DM & Baryonic Forces @ FNAL

MiniBooNE K+Æp++invisible p0Æg+invisible Monojet HCDFL Neutron Scattering JêyÆinvisible

10-1 1 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 10-3 mVHGeVL aB NcÆNc mc=10 MeV k=0 POT=2â1020

Optimal MiniBooNE location

2 3 4 5 6 7 0.100 0.050 0.030 0.150 0.070 MZ' HGeVL

gz

mono-g Jêy U

T ∼ 0 − 10 yr.

Prob.(baryonic coupled DM) ∼ 10−3

Coverage ∼ 101 − 102

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SLIDE 20

Electron Fixed Target: Beam Dumps

Beam e Dump Dirt Detector χ

A0 · · · Z e e χ ψ

A0

Z, p, n, e

χ χ BDX@JLab/SLAC/Mainz

χ χ

Coverage ∼ 102 − 103

T ∼ 0 − 10 yr.

Prob.(< GeV thermal DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Izaguirre, GK, Schuster, Toro 1307.6554

(FNAL?)

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SLIDE 21

Electron Fixed Target: Missing Mass/Energy

Izaguirre, GK, Schuster, Toro 1307.6554 NA64 Collaboration 1610.02988

Coverage ∼ 102 − 105

T ∼ 0 − 10 yr.

S c a l a r R e l i c T a r g e t F e r m i

n

R e l i c T a r g e t

BaBar LHC LEP B D X E787/949 PADME LDMX Phase 2 4 & 8 GeV VEPP-3 NA64 MMAPS DarkLight Belle II MiniBooNE

LSND E137

LDMX, Phase 1 CRESST II Super CDMS SNOLAB XENON 10 NEWS

1 10 102 103 10-16 10-15 10-14 10-13 10-12 10-11 10-10 10-9 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4

mχ (MeV) y = ϵ2αD (m χ/mA')4

All Experiments (Kinetic Mixing + Elastically Coupled DM)

S c a l a r R e l i c T a r g e t Fermion Relic Target

BaBar LHC LEP E787/949 @BNL PADME@LNF LDMX Phase 2 (4 & 8 GeV) VEPP-3 @BINP NA64 @CERN MMAPS @Cornell DarkLight @JLab

Belle II @SuperKEKB

LDMX, Phase 1

1 10 102 103 10-16 10-15 10-14 10-13 10-12 10-11 10-10 10-9 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4

mχ (MeV) y = ϵ2αD (m χ/mA')4

Missing Mass/Momentum Experiments (Kinetic Mixing) All Experiments (Kinetic Mixing + Elastically Coupled DM)

Prob.(< GeV thermal DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Tagger Ebeam e ECAL/HCAL Target Tracker Ef

e ⌧ Ebeam

e χ¯ χ Invisible

LDMX & NA64 See Nhan/Andrew’s talk

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SLIDE 22

e+ e−

γ

×

A0 ! 6E

f f + A0

χ χ

Izaguirre, GK, Schuster, Toro 1307.6554 Essig, Mardon, Papucci, Volansky Zhong 1309.5084

B-Factories: Mono X (<GeV)

Coverage ∼ 102 − 103

BaBar & Belle II

T ∼ 0 − 20 + yr.

10-3 10-2 0.1 1 10 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4 mA' [GeV] 2

a, 5 a,±2 favored ae BaBar

BNL

E787, E949

BNL

Cornell

This Proposal

VEPP3 (2σ) PADME (90%) MMAPS (5σ) BELLE II 5ab-1 ,95% Existing Exclusions

Prob.(< GeV thermal DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

22

SLIDE 23

Electron Recoil Direct Detection

χ []

σ [] / -

(
↑

)

=

= χ

--
χ []

σ [] / -

∝/
DM scatters electrons (in atoms & semiconductor bands)

Essig, Mardon, Volansky, 1108.5383

e e A0 χ χ

SENSEI prototype @ FNAL T ∼ 1 − 10 yr.

see Juan’s talk

Prob.(< GeV thermal DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105

23

SLIDE 24

Chemical Bond Breaking Direct Detection

χ []

σ []

·
μ
χ []

σ []

·

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105

Essig, Mardon, Slone, Volansky, 1608.02948

T ∼ 10 − 20 yr.

DM scatters diatomic molecules: breaks bonds, creates defects

Prob.(< GeV thermal DM) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

24

SLIDE 25

Superfluid/Superconductor Direct Detection

He pi pf (k2, ω2) (k1, ω1) (q, ω)

10−3 10−2 10−1 1 10 102

mX [MeV]

10−45 10−44 10−43 10−42 10−41 10−40 10−39 10−38 10−37 10−36 10−35

σp [cm2]

Nuclear recoil

α

X

= 1

− 5

, g

n

= 1

− 6

, m

φ

= M e V α

X

= 1

− 5

, g

n

= 1

− 6

, m

φ

= 1 M e V

Massive mediator

Leading order CKL15

Lin, Knappen, Zurek 1611.06228

10-6 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 0.1 1

43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33

GeVD @cm D ator

III II I

Ge

10-6 10-5 10-4 10-3 10-2 0.1 1 10-43 10-42 10-41 10-40 10-39 10-38 10-37 10-36 10-35 10-34 10-33 mX@GeVD s é

DD @cm2D

Massive mediator

Xenon10 Ge A: mf=1 MeV B: mf=10 MeV C: mf=100 MeV SC 1 meV SC 10 meV

Hochberg, Zhao, Zurek 1504.07237

Prob.(< MeV DM) ∼ 10−3 − 10−4

DM scatters quasiparticles

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105

T ∼ few − 10 yr.

25

SLIDE 26

Many Paths Forward

Traditional searches++ bigger, better, faster… Emerging searches for new/overlooked ideas Cosmic exploration, no brainer: study actual DM! Applying awesome technology to exotics

Prob.(WIMPy/ALP) ∼ 10−2 − 10−3

Prob.(DM exists) = 1 − ✏

Prob.(pBH/topological defect...) ∼ 10−4 − 10−5 Prob.(WIMP/Axion/RHν) ∼ 10−1 − 10−2

26

SLIDE 27

Global Atomic Clock & Magnetometer Arrays

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 2 3

1 2 3 time clock phase

vg Deravienko, Pospelov 1311.1244

1 10 100 1000 104 105 100 105 108 1011

Excluded by terrrestial experiments and astrophysical bounds

defect size d, km Energy scale , TeV Trans-continental network of Sr optical lattice clocks G P S c

n

s t e l l a t i

n

m = 10 10 eV m = 10 14 eV

✓ ◆ ! meff

e,p = me,p

✓ 1 + φ2 Λ2

e,p

◆ ; αeff = α 1 φ2/Λ2

γ

Prob.(ultra light scalar DM) ≈ 10−5

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105

27

SLIDE 28

Accelerometers / Torsion Balances

Graham, Kaplan, Mardon, Rajendran, Terrano 1512.06165

fiber Al test masses Be test masses mirror

(for angle read out)

DM-induced acceleration twist response

10-22 10-20 10-18 10-16 10-14 10-12 10-10 10-8 10-32 10-30 10-28 10-26 10-24 10-22 10-20 μHz mHz Hz kHz MHz m [eV] gϕee

ℒ⊃gϕeeϕee

static EP tests

reanalysis next run upgrade future

torsion balance —

10-13g/Hz1/2 10-15g/Hz1/2 10-17g/Hz1/2

atom interferometry —

PTA fine tuned

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105

Prob.(ultra light scalar/vector DM) ≈ 10−5

T ∼ few − 10 yr.

28

SLIDE 29

Atomic Gravitational Wave Detectors

Arvanitaki, Graham, Hogan, Rajendran, van Tilburg, 1512.06165

20
18
16
14
12
10
20
15
10
5
4
2

2 4 log10@mfêeVD log10@bêeVD

10@

ê D

5F EP Dy RbêCs natural b Earth AURIGA AI-SB AI-SR AI-TB

x1 x2 L 2L 4L T-3L T-L T+L T+3L 2T-2L 2T x1

*

x2

*

L L 3L T-2L T T+2L T+4L 2T-3L 2T-L 2T+L

L = + 1 2∂µφ∂µφ 1 2m2

φφ2

p

4πGNφ  dmeme¯ ee de 4 FµνF µν

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105

Prob.(ultra light scalar) ≈ 10−5 T ∼ few − 10 yr.

29

SLIDE 30

Gravitational Waves: Mergers & Phase Transitions

Schwaller 1504.07263

IPTA LISA ALIA DECIGO BBO EPTA ELISA T* = 0.1 GeV T* = 3 GeV T* = 300 GeV T* = 10 TeV SKA

10-10 10-8 10-6 10-4 0.01 1 10-15 10-13 10-11 10-9 10-7 10-5 0.001 f @HzD h2WGW

Munoz, Kamionkowski et. al. 1512.06165

Coverage ∼ 104 − 105 T ∼ 0 − 20 + yr. Prob.(pBH/phase transition...) ∼ 10−4

30

SLIDE 31

But don’t forget the anomalies/excesses

Daylan et. al 1402.6703 Goodenough, Hooper 1010.2752

This is not like the LHC!

ams02.org AMS positron frac. Vavra et. al 1304.0833 INTEGRAL 511 keV

DAMA/Barnabei et. al.2003

31

SLIDE 32

Conclusion

Traditional searches powerfully test WIMPs/axions Many high-risk/high-reward ideas in R&D Familiar techniques will confront many key issues Emerging light DD & accelerator programs Softer theory priors = broader landscape of searches Interdisciplinary: CM, atomic, nuclear, neutrino Robustly test important thermal relic targets < GeV Model independent info. from CMB & surveys (acceleration, time variation, grav. waves) Nonlinear: Could be way off! (Recall 750 GeV/Bicep2) Ignored lots of stuff! RHv, superrad., SIDM, keV lines…

32