DANDE NONG OPPORT UNIT Y Brian Haratsis Chairman, MacroPlan US - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

DANDE NONG OPPORT UNIT Y

Brian Haratsis Chairman, MacroPlan

ABOUT US

• 30 years experience;
• HQ in Sydney;
• Average 1000+ projects per year;
• National Footprint;
• Offices in Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Brisbane and the

Gold Coast;

• 80+ economists, planners and advisors; and
• Strategic approach.

ABOUT US

Pe r th Me lbour ne Sydne y Br isbane

T HE OPPORT UNIT Y

• Infrastructure rich – transport.
• Position and surrounding activity.
• Price differential to leverage.
• Unmet submarkets emerging.
• Amenity (retail).
• Scale has critical mass.

T HE OPPORT UNIT Y: SOME OBSE RVAT IONS F ROM T HE OUT SE T

Did you know…

• There are over 100 solicitors in the

area;

• Most in low quality buildings (e.g. 41

Robinson Street, etc.).

DNA F OR URBAN RE NE WAL & PL ACE MAKING: T HE T E ST S

E CONOMIC F RAME WORK

E CONOMIC F RAME WORK

1. High Population Growth- (1.6% or 400,000 + p.a.) 2. Increasing Household Formation – (↑15 – 64 years) 3. Retirement Explosion- (↑ X 250% 2007/2011) 4. Employment Churn (20%), then Growth (1-2% p.a.) 5. GDP at Trend Rate- (3% - 3.5% p.a.) 6. Gearshift from Resources → Construction → Services 7. Fast Growth in Tourism, Health, Education 8. Post GFC Economy- ↑ Wealth ↓ Savings ↑ Retail ↑ Asset Investment

AUST RAL IAN CAPIT AL CIT IE S

Sydney



Pop 2014: 4,823,700



Pop 2061: 8,493,700 Melbourne



Pop 2014: 4,422,700



Pop 2061: 8,580,600 Canberra



Pop 2014: 390,080



Pop 2061: 740,900 Brisbane



Pop 2014: 2,293,400



Pop 2061: 4,788,000 Eastern Seaboard Major Cities Total



Pop 2014: 11.9 million



Pop 2031: 17.2 million



Pop 2061: 22.6 million

POPUL AT ION: E AST E RN SE ABORARD ME GAL OPOL IS

• By Greater Metropolitan Region (2001-2011)

City Population Population Gr

• wth (% )

Jobs Jobs Gr

• wth (% )

Melbourne 601,512 17.6% 173,081 20.3% Sydney 431,713 10.8% 106,209 10.7% Brisbane 391,911 23.2% 116,747 22.1% Perth 329,161 24.0% 112,445 33.2%

POPUL AT ION & E MPL OYME NT GROWT H

• Intensification of the Eastern seaboard.
• Sydney’s 2nd airport.
• Melbourne’s 3rd Airport.
• Inland Rail.
• And…
• Brisbane Airport second runway.
• Melbourne Airport third runway.
• Major freight and logistics projects in Melbourne, Sydney & Brisbane.

INF RAST RUCT URE : PROPE RT Y ‘GAME CHANGE RS’

DANDE NONG CONT E XT

• 30kms from the CBD.
• Largest corridor – SE historically fast growth (Casey, Cardinia) – primarily

residential.

• Dandenong transition period:
• 3rd economic phase.
• agriculture hub -> suburban car-based - > regional city.
• Surrounded by dominant retail centres.
• Chadstone;
• Fountain Gate;
• Frankston; and
• Knox City.
• Lonsdale Street upgrades & new Council Office.
• Initial private sector high density residential project.

ABOUT DANDE NONG

32 kms

GE OGRAPHIC CONT E XT

NAT URAL CAT CHME NT

Population 1.03 million at 2016 Add 310,000 dwe llings ove r 2016- 51

South E ast Airport

• Long established Employment Cluster.
• Manufacturing;
• Health – Hospital;
• Education – Chisholm;
• Transport/Logistics; and
• Warehousing.
• Net importer of workers.
• Monash Freeway, Princes Freeway,

Eastlink.

• Affordable.
• Rail connection & continued upgrades.
• Renter market, apartments popular.

E CONOMIC DIVE RSIT Y

Strength maintained but may change and evolve… Today: Building Blocks 2050: Fully integrated

ME L BOURNE E CONOMIC T RIANGL E

Top 15 employment growth regions, 2013-2018

15.4 16.1 16.2 16.5 18.1 18.6 18.9 18.9 29.4 31.4 32.9 32.9 34.1 34.8 42.5 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00

Sydney -… Sydney -… Fitzroy Ipswich Brisbane - South Brisbane Inner… Sydney - Inner… Sunshine Coast Sydney - City… Perth - South East Melbourne - Inner Gold Coast Perth - North… Melbourne -… Melbourne - West Employed Persons ('000)

351.1 309.6 281.7 253.2 247.1 229.0 183.0 142.1 141.0 118.6 117.4 110.1 98.8 80.7 58.7 58.0 43.2 37.1 13.5 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 Health Care and Social… Retail Trade Manufacturing Professional, Scientific and… Construction Education and Training Accommodation and Food… Public Administration and… Transport, Postal and… Wholesale Trade Financial and Insurance… Other Services Administrative and Support… Agriculture, Forestry and… Arts and Recreation Services Information Media and… Rental, Hiring and Real… Electricity, Gas, Water and… Mining Employed Persons ('000s)

Victoria, Projected employment growth ('000) - five years to November 2018

JOBS GROWT H IN T HE SOUT H E AST

2nd wave of change… majority of in-migrants from last 5 years from overseas

• employment and affordability drivers
• changing housing requirement

OVE RSE AS MIGRAT ION- VIC

• 10,000
• 10,000

20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

DRIVE RS & E MPL OYME NT T RE NDS

De c line labour for c e par tic ipation sinc e 2011 E mployme nt is gr

• wing

mor e slowly afte r 30 ye ar s

Population Gr

• wth, E

mployme nt Gr

• wth (Million), Vic tor

ia, Histor ic , ABS, VIF 2016 L abour F

• r

c e Par tic ipation (% ), Vic tor ia

E MPL OYME NT & PART ICIPAT ION RAT E S

65+ c ohor t will inc r e ase par tic ipation r ate s

L abour F

• r

c e Par tic ipation (% ), 65+, Vic tor ia

E MPL OYME NT & PART ICIPAT ION RAT E S

Une mployme nt r ising but still lowe r than for most of the last 30 ye ar s

S

• urc e : ABS

Catalo g ue No 6202.0 - L ab o ur F

• rc e , Australia, F

e b 2015

Australian, Vic torian Une mployme nt Rate (% )

Youth une mployme nt inc r e asing signific antly

No te : 1 Ave rag e o f ye ar up to F e b ruary. S

• urc e : ABS

Catalo g ue No . 6291.0.55.001 - L ab o ur F

• rc e , Australia,

De taile d - E le c tro nic De live ry, F e b 2015 Data Cub e L M8.

Vic torian Une mployme nt Rate (% ), by Age Cohort

UNE MPL OYME NT & HOURS WORKE D

F alling hour s wor ke d pe r wor ke r

Ave rage hour s worke d pe r month (No.), Vic toria

High une mployme nt r ate ac r

• ss Gr

e ate r Me lbour ne

Unde re mploye d pe rsons (No.), Vic toria

UNE MPL OYME NT & HOURS WORKE D

Manufacturing is the largest contributor of economic output

24.5%

Construction is the second largest contributor of economic input

11.4%

Manufacturing is the largest employing sector

15%

Manufacturing share of output and employment

De c lining

Most service industries

Rapid gr

• wth

Health care, retail trade, education and training and professional services

F aste st gr

• wth

Implic ations for Me tr

• politan Me lbour

ne

L

• we r
• r

ne gative e mployme nt gr

• wth in manufacturing, agriculture, wholesale trade and

construction is likely to affect those wor

ke r s with limite d qualific ations, particularly older males,

particularly in Gr

e ate r Dande nong and City of Kingston.

“CBD”

INDUST RY ST RUCT URE IMPL ICAT IONS

Ne t E mployme nt Change by Se c tor , Histor ic , F

• r

e c ast, VIC

15.5% 2001 12.8% 2011

Manufac tur ing Shar e of T

• tal E

mploye d Pe r sons, VIC

S

• urc e : ABS

Ce nsus; E c o no mic .id; RE MPL AN

10.8% 2011

S

• urc e : NI

E I R data, F e de ral De partme nt o f E mplo yme nt pro je c tio ns to No v 2018

INDUST RY ST RUCT URE IMPL ICAT IONS

Implic ations for Me tr

• politan Me lbour

ne

Inve stme nts in the public se c tor, particularly he alth and e duc ation is typically publicly funded

and growth in these sectors may not c ontinue at the same rate into the future, putting

pr e ssur e on some cohorts particularly e duc ate d wor ke r s and fe male wor ke r s.

He avy industr ie s:

Manufacturing , traditional blue collar industries, lower skilled jobs and manual jobs.

Slowe r gr

• wth

se c tor s and jobs

Will be automate d or

se nt

• ffshor

e

He avy industr ie s

Se r vic e jobs: Higher shares

• f female workers, white

collar professional jobs

F aste r gr

• wth

se c tor s and jobs

Health, education and public service, retail, food services and aged care services

Se r vic e jobs inc lude

INDUST RY ST RUCT URE IMPL ICAT IONS

CHAL L E NGE S

L OW T O HIGH DE NSIT Y CARS T O T RAINS

CHAL L E NGE S OF T RANSIT ION

INDUST RIAL T O COMME RCIAL SHOPPING CE NT RE S T O MAIN ST RE E T

CHAL L E NGE S OF T RANSIT ION

A: How Dandenong accommodates the needs of a growing

residential population?

C: How to change the wider population’s impression of the name

“Dandenong”?

B: Unlike Paramatta, where Westmead and Moorebank 15km away.

Dandenong is consolidated.

UNDE RST ANDING T HE BE NE F IT S

CASE ST UDIE S

• The Parramatta CBD is one of the lar

ge st subur ban offic e mar ke ts in Australia.

• More than 760,000 sq.m of office floorspace.
• More than 200,000 sq.m of retail floorspace, plus showroom, medical uses, civic

and hotel facilities and high density residential development.

• Contains more than 40,000 wor

ke r s.

• One of the largest projects in the CBD is Par

r amatta Squar e de ve lopme nt.

PARRAMAT T A

PARRAMAT T A RE GIONAL CONT E XT

Parramatta

370,000 population

PARRAMAT T A RE SIDE NT IAL , T RADE ARE A & MAJOR PROJE CT S

We also note that some of the key major projects that will also drive population and employment growth in the vicinity of Parramatta City include:

• Western Sydney Airport;
• Western Sydney Employment Area (WSEA);
• Western Sydney Light Rail;
• WestConnex;
• New Parramatta Road; and
• Western Sydney Stadium.

PARRAMAT T A: KE Y DRIVE RS

• $40 million five-star Mecure Hotel.
• New hotel and entertainment complex- WestWaters.
• The suburb is a planned community.
• Wetlands and walking paths, schools, a library, cafes, shopping and hotel complexes –

it is very well contained.

• Contemporary family homes and modern townhouses.

CAROL INE SPRINGS- MAST E RPL AN

Mix of use s. Comme r c ial foc us. Suc c e ssful auto pr e c inc t. L amanna Re tail c onc e pt. Stage s of de ve lopme nt:

Leverage freeway proximity; Establish retail; Establish office; and Establish wider uses e.g. leisure.

Quality landsc aping.

E SSE NDON F IE L DS- MAST E RPL AN

• North East Link (12)
• M1 Widening Stage 1

EastLink- Clyde Rd (2)

INCRE ASINGL Y NODAL

VICT ORIAN F RE IGHT PL AN

DNA F OR URBAN RE NE WAL & PL ACE MAKING

• Logical node/ activity centre.
• Population growth.
• Supported by employment.
• Infrastructure capacity – specifically

TOD potential.

• Amenity – existing or created.
• Pricing – meets target market,

relevant to area.

• Meets geo-economic requirements.
• Value growth potential as amenity

improves – Retail.

• Existing infrastructure – Public

transport.

• Urban design.
• Critical mass.

DNA F OR URBAN RE NE WAL & PL ACE MAKING

Que e nVic Village (Me lbour ne ) – ($800m)

• Cafes, retail, office and residential.
• 47,000 sqm of total retail floorspace.
• 124 speciality shops on 5 levels.
• 60,000 sqm of office.
• 8,702 sqm of other tenancies.
• 1,500 underground car spaces.

Donc aste r Hill Str ate gy

Conceived in 2002: 21st Century Sustainable Village.

• “Good access to transport;
• Community services;
• Shopping; and
• Open space”.

DNA F OR URBAN RE NE WAL & PL ACE MAKING

Par r amatta Squar e

• Parramatta Square is a contemporary expression of a modern

city centre.

• 290,000 sqm of Premium Grade office & retail space
• This city style precinct will transform the heart of Parramatta

CBD

• Vibrant, cosmopolitan and commercial space