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I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V . D o m ini k S chu b l e , A d e la Ma r ian , L o r e nz o C r e m o n e s e 1 M o t i v a t i o n D a t a S o u r c e : B MWi , 2018 S p ac e h e a t in g in p r

  1. I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V . D o m ini k S chäu b l e , A d e la Ma r ian , L o r e nz o C r e m o n e s e 1

  2. M o t i v a t i o n D a t a S o u r c e : B MWi , 2018 S p ac e h e a t in g in p r i v a t e h o u s e h o l d s c o n t r i b u t e s s i g ni f ican t l y t o t o t al f inal e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n 2 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  3. M o t i v a t i o n D a t a s o u r c e : D e s t a t i s , 2016 D a t a s o u r c e : d e na , 2016 B uil d in g s c o n s t r uc t e d b e t w ee n 1949 an d 1978 a r e d o m ina t in g in nu m b e r S p e ci f ic e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n o f t h e s e b uil d in g s i s r e la t i v e l y hi g h B uil d in g s t o c k , e s p e ciall y b uil d in g s c o n s t r uc t e d b e f o r e 1978 n ee d t o b e a d r e ss e d 3 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  4. M o t i v a t i o n T a r g e t r e f e r e nc e y e a r 2016 - 2020 2020 - 2050 un t il 2016 G H G H e a t d e m an d e m i ss i o n s b uil d in g s Chan g e in % p e r y e a r S o u r c e : M o ni t o r in g e x p e r t c o mm i ss i o n , 2018 R e d uc t i o n o f h e a t c o n s u m p t i o n in b uil d in g s m u s t b e acc e l e r a t e d s i g ni f ican t l y Ra t e s o f hi g h - in v e s t m e n t r e f u r b i s h m e n t s a r e w e ll b e l o w w ha t i s n ee d e d L o w - e ff o r t , l o w - in v e s t m e n t m e a s u r e s m i g h t h e l p… li k e s m a r t s p ac e h e a t in g 4 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  5. S c o p e an d o b j e c t i v e R e d uc t i o n o f w a s t e d s p ac e h e a t t h r o u g h s m a r t c o n t r o l o f s p ac e h e a t in g o n r oo m l e v e l T y p ical f e a t u r e s : P r o g r a mm a b l e t i m e s ch e d ul e s , R e m o t e c o n t r o l , Au t o m a t ic r e ac t i o n t o w in d o w / d oo r o p e r a t i o n , G e o - f e ncin g ( r e ac t i o n t o G P S - p o s i t i o n) , A ss i m ila t i o n o f w e a t h e r f o r e ca s t U n d e r w hich c o n d i t i o n s i s SS H a c o s t - e ff e c t i v e m e a s u r e f o r G e r m an h o u s e h o l d s t o s a v e h e a t in g e n e r g y an d r e d uc e G H G e m i ss i o n s ? 5 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  6. M e t h o d s : A pp r o ach an d b a s ic e q ua t i o n s Ca s e s t u d y e s t i m a t e s o f a v e r a g e CO 2 m i t i g a t i o n c o s t s an d p a y b ac k t i I n v e s t o r / u s e r p e r s p e c t i v e P a y b ac k t i m e : F o r N P V SS H = 0 , t = p a y b ac k t i m e A v e r a g e CO 2 m i t i g a t i o n c o s t s : Ha r d l y an y e m p i r ical d a t a o n s a v in g s t h r o u g h SS H in G e r m an y o r Eu r o p e S a v in g s s t r o n g l y d e p e n d o n o ccu p an t b e ha v i o r b e f o r e an d a f t e r in s t alla t i o n R e la t i v e s a v in g s t h r o u g h SS H ( _ SS H) u s e d a s in d e p e n d e n t v a r ia b l e 6 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  7. M e t h o d s : P a r a m e t e r iza t i o n G e n e r al C o n s u m e r f u e l p r ic e : 6 . 44 C t / k Wh I n t e r e s t r a t e : 1% O p e r a t in g li f e o f SS H s y s t e m : 10 y e a r s S p e ci f ic e m i ss i o n s - 4) t CO2 / k Wh 1 . Ca s e : A v e r a g e s in g l e - f a m il y h o u s e b uil t b e t w ee n 1949 an d 1978 Li v in g a r e a: 127 m ² S p e ci f ic h e a t in g e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n: 159 k Wh / ( m ² a) S y s t e m p r ic e / in v e s t m e n t c o s t : 670 € (8 r oo m s ) 2 . Ca s e : A v e r a g e a p a r t m e n t in a p a r t m e n t b uil d in g b uil t b e t w ee n 1949 an d 1978 Li v in g a r e a: 64 m ² (a p a r t m e n t ) , 640 m ² ( b uil d in g ) S p e ci f ic h e a t in g e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n: 134 k Wh / ( m ² a) S y s t e m p r ic e / in v e s t m e n t c o s t : 340 € (4 r oo m s ) C o n s u m p t i o n c o s t s ha r e : 70% S e n s i t i v i t y s t u d i e s t o in v e s t i g a t e v a r ia t i o n s in p a r a m e t e r s an d t h e i r i m p ac t 7 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  8. R e s ul t s : R e la t i v e s a v in g s an d S p e ci f ic e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n Mi t i g a t i o n c o s t s (MC) an d r e la t i v e s a v in g s f o ll o w a 1 / x r e la t i o n F o r s a v in g s o f a b o u t 6% , MC b e c o m e n e g a t i v e in t h e a v g s in g l e - f a m il y h o u s e ca s e S p e ci f ic h e a t in g e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n ha s a c o n s i d e r a b l e i m p ac t o n MC: - 22 € / t CO2 f o r 10% inc r e a s e an d + 27 € / t CO2 f o r 10% d e c r e a s e s t a r t in g f r o m a v e r a g e (a t 6%) 8 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  9. R e s ul t s : I n v e s t m e n t c o s t s an d O p e r a t in g li f e t i m e F o r la r g e s a v in g s MC a r e r a t h e r in s e n s i t i v e t o in v e s t m e n t c o s t s an d o p e r a t in g li f e F o r a 10% d e c r e a s e in in v e s t m e n t c o s t s , MC d e c r e a s e b y - 23 € / t CO2 ( f o r 6% s a v in g s ) F o r an o p e r a t in g li f e t i m e o f o nl y 9 y e a r s , MC i s 24 € / t CO2 hi g h e r t han f o r 10 y e a r s (6%) 9 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  10. R e s ul t s : F u e l p r ic e an d C o n s u m p t i o n C o s t S ha r e C o n s u S h a r e M C [ € /t C O 2 ] 50% 70% s ha r e s ha r e S a v in g s 2 698 641 (%) 4 265 209 6 121 64 10 6 - 51 15 - 52 - 109 20 - 81 - 138 30 - 110 - 167 I nc r e a s in g f u e l p r ic e s b y 10% y i e l d s d e c r e a s e s in MC o f - 22 € / t CO2 ( f o r 6% s a v in g s ) U s in g a c o n s u m p t i o n c o s t s ha r e o f 70% in s t e a d o f 50% y i e l d s - 57 € / t CO2 l o w e r MC 10 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  11. S u mm a r y an d C o nclu s i o n s F o r s m all r e la t i v e s a v in g s (2 - 10%) , m i t i g a t i o n c o s t s o f s m a r t s p ac e h e a s t r o n g l y w i t h inc r e a s in g r e la t i v e s a v in g s F o r s m all r e la t i v e s a v in g s (2 - 10%) , MC a r e s e n s i t i v e t o w a r d s v a r ia b ili t y in e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n , in v e s t m e n t c o s t s an d o p e r a t in g li f e t i m e SS H can b e c o s t - e ff e c t i v e w i t h s a v in g s o f a t l e a s t 6% f o r an a v e r a g e G e r m an s in g l e - f a m il y h o u s e an d a t l e a s t 8% f o r an a v e r a g e a p a r t m e n t E m p i r ical d a t a o n r e aliza b l e s a v in g s w i t h s m a r t s p ac e h e a t in g i s n ee d e d u r g e n t l y ; p o t e n t ial s u pp o r t c o ul d b e c o nn e c t e d t o m o ni t o r in g p a r t ici p a t i o n H o u s e h o l d s in in e ff ici e n t b uil d in g s s h o ul d t hin k a b o u t in v e s t in g in SS H f i r s t ; p o t e n t ial s u pp o r t s h o ul d t a r g e t t h e s e h o u s e h o l d s f i r s t I nc r e a s in g t h e r e g ula t o r y m ini m u m f o r c o n s u m p t i o n c o s t s ha r e w o ul d inc r e a s e inc e n t i v e s f o r SS H in a p a r t m e n t s 11 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

  12. C o n t ac t D r . D o m ini k S chäu b l e S e ni o r R e s e a r ch A ss o cia t e d o m ini k . s cha e u b l e @ ia ss - p o t s d a m . d e I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V . B e r lin e r S t r a ß e 130 D – 14467 P o t s d a m W e b : www . ia ss - p o t s d a m . d e 12 I n s t i t u t e f o r A d v anc e d S u s t aina b ili t y S t u d i e s e . V .

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