CS325 Artificial Intelligence Ch. 17.56, Game Theory Cengiz Gnay, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CS325 Artificial Intelligence Ch. 17.56, Game Theory Cengiz Gnay, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CS325 Artificial Intelligence Ch. 17.56, Game Theory Cengiz Gnay, Emory Univ. Spring 2013 Gnay Ch. 17.56, Game Theory Spring 2013 1 / 16 State of the art subjects: build order planning, over state estimation, plan recognition. . .


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SLIDE 1

CS325 Artificial Intelligence

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Cengiz Günay, Emory Univ. Spring 2013

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 1 / 16

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SLIDE 2

State of the art subjects: build order planning, over state estimation, plan

  • recognition. . .

Article on 2010 winner: Berkeley Overmind bot

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SLIDE 3

MDPs and RL for games: Civilization

2010 Paper on playing Civilization IV; uses: Markov Decision Processes Reinforcement Learning, a model-based Q-learning approach Compares strategies and parameters on winning

  • utcomes.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 3 / 16

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SLIDE 4

And Now, Game Theory

Game theory applies when: partially-observable, or with simultaneous moves (e.g., StarCraft).

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 4 / 16

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SLIDE 5

And Now, Game Theory

Game theory applies when: partially-observable, or with simultaneous moves (e.g., StarCraft).

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 4 / 16

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SLIDE 6

And Now, Game Theory

Game theory applies when: partially-observable, or with simultaneous moves (e.g., StarCraft). Game theory deals more with cases like: Diplomacy/war between enemies Bidding Creating win-win scenarios

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 4 / 16

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SLIDE 7

Entry/Exit Surveys

Exit survey: Adversarial Games

How do you reduce the tree search complexity of a turn-by-turn game like chess? Give an example for a game that we haven’t studied in class which can be solved with the minimax algorithm. Suggest an evaluation function at the cutoff nodes.

Entry survey: Game Theory (0.25 points of final grade)

Can we use minimax tree search work in simultaneous moves? Briefly explain why or why not? Think that you will have to make the move of the US side in a Cold War scenario. How would you consider the opponent’s move, uncertainty, and secrecy?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 5 / 16

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SLIDE 8

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak. Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 9

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 11

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? Testifying is dominant.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 12

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? Testifying is dominant. Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 13

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? Testifying is dominant. Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition? Three of them.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 14

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? Testifying is dominant. Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition? Three of them. Nash equilibrium: Local minima; single player switch does not improve. Is there one?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 15

Terminology: 2 Prisoners Dilemma

More like in Law and Order or The Closer: 2 suspects in separate interrogation rooms. Each can either:

1 Testify against the other, or 2 Refuse to speak.

A: testify A: refuse B: testify A = −5, B = −5 A = −10, B = 0 B: refuse A = 0, B = −10 A = −1, B = −1 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? Testifying is dominant. Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition? Three of them. Nash equilibrium: Local minima; single player switch does not improve. Is there one? Testifying, again.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 6 / 16

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SLIDE 16

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 17

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 18

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 19

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? None!

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 20

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? None! Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 21

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? None! Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition? Only one.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 22

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? None! Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition? Only one. Equilibrium: Local minima; single player switch does not improve. Is there one?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 23

Terminology (2): Game Console Game

Console producer (A) vs. game developer (B), need to decide between: Blu-ray vs. DVD A: bluray A: dvd B: bluray A = +9, B = +9 A = −4, B = −1 B: dvd A = −3, B = −1 A = +5, B = +5 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. For A and B? None! Pareto optimal: If no better solution for both players exist. Which condition? Only one. Equilibrium: Local minima; single player switch does not improve. Is there one? Two cases.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 7 / 16

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SLIDE 24

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 25

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 26

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 27

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. None!

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 28

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. None!

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 29

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. None!

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 30

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. None! Utility of E: −3 ≤ UE ≤ 2

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 31

Strategies: 2 Finger Morra Game

Difficult, zero-sum betting game:

1 Show a number of fingers 2 Player betting on odd (O) or even (E) wins based on total fingers

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Dominant strategy: Selfish decision that is always better. None! Utility of E: −3 ≤ UE ≤ 2 Not very sure? Handicapped? Use mixed strategy

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 8 / 16

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SLIDE 32

Mixed Strategy: 2 Finger Morra

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Parameterize with probabilities:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 9 / 16

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SLIDE 33

Mixed Strategy: 2 Finger Morra

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Calculate E’s utility for both players’ mixed strategies. Parameterize with probabilities:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 9 / 16

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SLIDE 34

Mixed Strategy: 2 Finger Morra

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Calculate E’s utility for both players’ mixed strategies. Mixed strategy: Leave opponent no choice! Parameterize with probabilities:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 9 / 16

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SLIDE 35

Mixed Strategy: 2 Finger Morra

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Calculate E’s utility for both players’ mixed strategies. Mixed strategy: Leave opponent no choice! Parameterize with probabilities: Optimal p for E: 2p − 3(1 − p) = −3p + 4(1 − p) p = 7/12 UE = 2p − 3(1 − p) = −1/12

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 9 / 16

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SLIDE 36

Mixed Strategy: 2 Finger Morra

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Calculate E’s utility for both players’ mixed strategies. Mixed strategy: Leave opponent no choice! Parameterize with probabilities: Optimal p for E: 2p − 3(1 − p) = −3p + 4(1 − p) p = 7/12 UE = 2p − 3(1 − p) = −1/12 Optimal q for O: 2q − 3(1 − q) = −3q + 4(1 − q) q = 7/12 UE = 3q + 4(1 − q) = −1/12

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 9 / 16

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SLIDE 37

Mixed Strategy: 2 Finger Morra

O: one O: two E: one E = +2 E = −3 E: two E = −3 E = +4 Calculate E’s utility for both players’ mixed strategies. Mixed strategy: Leave opponent no choice! Parameterize with probabilities: Optimal p for E: 2p − 3(1 − p) = −3p + 4(1 − p) p = 7/12 UE = 2p − 3(1 − p) = −1/12 ≤ UE ≤ Optimal q for O: 2q − 3(1 − q) = −3q + 4(1 − q) q = 7/12 UE = 3q + 4(1 − q) = −1/12

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 9 / 16

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SLIDE 38

Mixed Strategy Issues

Secrecy and Rationality: Secrecy: If a dominant strategy exists, your opponent can guess it! Rationality: Sometimes it’s better to look crazy to make your opponent believe you will do something irrational.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 10 / 16

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SLIDE 39

Mixed Strategy Issues

Secrecy and Rationality: Secrecy: If a dominant strategy exists, your opponent can guess it! Rationality: Sometimes it’s better to look crazy to make your opponent believe you will do something irrational. A riddle for you.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 10 / 16

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SLIDE 40

Mixed Strategy Example

Zero-sum game with min and max: ▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 5 3 △: 2 4 2 Let’s solve it?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 11 / 16

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SLIDE 41

Mixed Strategy Example

Zero-sum game with min and max: ▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 5 3 △: 2 4 2 Let’s solve it? No, need! Dominant strategies exist!

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 11 / 16

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SLIDE 42

Mixed Strategy Example

Zero-sum game with min and max: ▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 5 3 △: 2 4 2 Let’s solve it? No, need! Dominant strategies exist!

1 We know what to do 2 We can guess the other rational player’s move Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 11 / 16

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SLIDE 43

Mixed Strategy Example

Zero-sum game with min and max: ▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 5 3 △: 2 4 2 Let’s solve it? No, need! Dominant strategies exist!

1 We know what to do 2 We can guess the other rational player’s move

Therefore, UE = 5 .

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 11 / 16

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SLIDE 44

Another Mixed Strategy Example

▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 3 6 △: 2 4 5 Dominant strategies?

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 12 / 16

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SLIDE 45

Another Mixed Strategy Example

▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 3 6 △: 2 4 5 Dominant strategies? None for △. Need to calculate only probability p, because dominant q = 0.

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 12 / 16

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SLIDE 46

Another Mixed Strategy Example

▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 3 6 △: 2 4 5 Dominant strategies? None for △. Need to calculate only probability p, because dominant q = 0. 3p + 5(1 − p) = 6p + 4(1 − p) p = 1/4 U△ = 4.5

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 12 / 16

slide-47
SLIDE 47

Another Mixed Strategy Example

▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 3 6 △: 2 4 5 Dominant strategies? None for △. Need to calculate only probability p, because dominant q = 0. 3p + 5(1 − p) = 6p + 4(1 − p) p = 1/4 U△ = 4.5 Based on △’s decision, U△ = 3q + 6(1 − q) = 6

  • r

U△ = 5q + 4(1 − q) = 4

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 12 / 16

slide-48
SLIDE 48

Another Mixed Strategy Example

▽ : 1 ▽ : 2 △: 1 △= 3 6 △: 2 4 5 Dominant strategies? None for △. Need to calculate only probability p, because dominant q = 0. 3p + 5(1 − p) = 6p + 4(1 − p) p = 1/4 U△ = 4.5 Based on △’s decision, U△ = 3q + 6(1 − q) = 6

  • r

U△ = 5q + 4(1 − q) = 4 Therefore, 4 ≤ U△ ≤ 6 .

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 12 / 16

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SLIDE 49

Poker

Simplified! Deck has only ace and kings: AAKK Deal: 1 card each Rounds:

1 raise/check 2 call/fold

Sequential game/ extensive form

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 13 / 16

slide-50
SLIDE 50

Poker

Simplified! Deck has only ace and kings: AAKK Deal: 1 card each Rounds:

1 raise/check 2 call/fold

Sequential game/ extensive form

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0,0! +1,-1! 0,0!

  • 1,+1!

1/6: AA r k r k r k r k +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! 0,0! +2,-2 0,0

  • 2,+2

c f c f c f c f 1/3: KA 1/3: AK 1/6: KK 2 I1,1 I1,2 I2,1 I2,2 I2,1 Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 13 / 16

slide-51
SLIDE 51

Poker

Simplified! Deck has only ace and kings: AAKK Deal: 1 card each Rounds:

1 raise/check 2 call/fold

Sequential game/ extensive form

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0,0! +1,-1! 0,0!

  • 1,+1!

1/6: AA r k r k r k r k +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! 0,0! +2,-2 0,0

  • 2,+2

c f c f c f c f 1/3: KA 1/3: AK 1/6: KK 2 I1,1 I1,2 I2,1 I2,2 I2,1 Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 13 / 16

slide-52
SLIDE 52

Poker

Simplified! Deck has only ace and kings: AAKK Deal: 1 card each Rounds:

1 raise/check 2 call/fold

Sequential game/ extensive form Real game has how many states?

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0,0! +1,-1! 0,0!

  • 1,+1!

1/6: AA r k r k r k r k +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! 0,0! +2,-2 0,0

  • 2,+2

c f c f c f c f 1/3: KA 1/3: AK 1/6: KK 2 I1,1 I1,2 I2,1 I2,2 I2,1 Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 13 / 16

slide-53
SLIDE 53

Poker

Simplified! Deck has only ace and kings: AAKK Deal: 1 card each Rounds:

1 raise/check 2 call/fold

Sequential game/ extensive form Real game has how many states? ∼ 1018

1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 0,0! +1,-1! 0,0!

  • 1,+1!

1/6: AA r k r k r k r k +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! +1,-1! 0,0! +2,-2 0,0

  • 2,+2

c f c f c f c f 1/3: KA 1/3: AK 1/6: KK 2 I1,1 I1,2 I2,1 I2,2 I2,1 Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 13 / 16

slide-54
SLIDE 54

So How To Solve Non-Simplified Games?

Strategies: abstracting; lumping together:

Don’t care about aces’ suits, all aces equal Lump similar cards together: cards 1–7 together Bets: small and large Deals: Monte Carlo sampling

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 14 / 16

slide-55
SLIDE 55

So How To Solve Non-Simplified Games?

Strategies: abstracting; lumping together:

Don’t care about aces’ suits, all aces equal Lump similar cards together: cards 1–7 together Bets: small and large Deals: Monte Carlo sampling

In summary, game theory is: Good for:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 14 / 16

slide-56
SLIDE 56

So How To Solve Non-Simplified Games?

Strategies: abstracting; lumping together:

Don’t care about aces’ suits, all aces equal Lump similar cards together: cards 1–7 together Bets: small and large Deals: Monte Carlo sampling

In summary, game theory is: Good for: simultaneous moves, stochasticity, uncertainty, partial

  • bservability, multi-agent, sequential, dynamic

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 14 / 16

slide-57
SLIDE 57

So How To Solve Non-Simplified Games?

Strategies: abstracting; lumping together:

Don’t care about aces’ suits, all aces equal Lump similar cards together: cards 1–7 together Bets: small and large Deals: Monte Carlo sampling

In summary, game theory is: Good for: simultaneous moves, stochasticity, uncertainty, partial

  • bservability, multi-agent, sequential, dynamic

Not good for:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 14 / 16

slide-58
SLIDE 58

So How To Solve Non-Simplified Games?

Strategies: abstracting; lumping together:

Don’t care about aces’ suits, all aces equal Lump similar cards together: cards 1–7 together Bets: small and large Deals: Monte Carlo sampling

In summary, game theory is: Good for: simultaneous moves, stochasticity, uncertainty, partial

  • bservability, multi-agent, sequential, dynamic

Not good for: unknown actions, continuous actions, irrational

  • pponents, unknown utility

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 14 / 16

slide-59
SLIDE 59

Game: Feds vs. Politicians

Game between:

1 Federal reserve and 2 Politicians

  • n controlling the budget.

Find equilibrium below:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 15 / 16

slide-60
SLIDE 60

Game: Feds vs. Politicians

Game between:

1 Federal reserve and 2 Politicians

  • n controlling the budget.

Find equilibrium below:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 15 / 16

slide-61
SLIDE 61

Game: Feds vs. Politicians

Game between:

1 Federal reserve and 2 Politicians

  • n controlling the budget.

Find equilibrium below:

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 15 / 16

slide-62
SLIDE 62

Alturistic Side of Game Theory: Mechanism Design

Mechanism Design: Design to get the most for the game for: players, game itself, or public Example: advertisements

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 16 / 16

slide-63
SLIDE 63

Alturistic Side of Game Theory: Mechanism Design

Mechanism Design: Design to get the most for the game for: players, game itself, or public Example: advertisements Strategy: design game to have dominant strategy Example: second-price auctions (like eBay)

Günay

  • Ch. 17.5–6, Game Theory

Spring 2013 16 / 16