CRR Market Analysis discussion Guillermo Bautista Alderete, Ph.D. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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CRR Market Analysis discussion Guillermo Bautista Alderete, Ph.D. Director, Market Analysis & Forecasting Market Surveillance Committee Meeting General Session April 4, 2019 ISO PUBLIC ISO PUBLIC Pro-rata funding logic for CRRs took

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CRR Market Analysis discussion

Guillermo Bautista Alderete, Ph.D. Director, Market Analysis & Forecasting Market Surveillance Committee Meeting General Session April 4, 2019

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Pro-rata funding logic for CRRs took effect in January 2019

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Notional revenue: Full-funding CRR payments Offset revenue: (Day-ahead congestion rents)-(Notional revenue) Adjusted revenue: (Notional revenue)-(Offset revenue [if negative only])

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Higher congestion was observed in February as compared to January

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Based on its contribution to deficiency, each CRR portfolio saw accordingly a pro-rata adjustment

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CRR portfolio adjustment for February CRR portfolio adjustment for January

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CRR notional value is now estimated for each transmission constraint

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Total CRR surplus includes both auction revenues and surplus offset, and all of that is allocated to measured demand

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Pro-rata funding tracks the CRR surplus separately

With the pro-rata funding in place, Measured Demand has gotten additional $1.3 million and $9.7 million of CRR surplus allocated in January and February.

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Day-ahead estimated flows, which accrue congestion rents, and CRR flows were both below the day-ahead cleared flow due largely to accounting for unscheduled flows

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7750 D-ECASCO_OOS_CP6_NG nomogram

bserved a CRR deficit due to more capacity being

released in CRR market

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CRR pro-rata funding logic is calculated at the CRR portfolio level

New Settlements logic calculates and allocates offsets at

the CRR portfolio level and by constraint

For analysis purposes a logic to disaggregate the

portfolio-level settlements into individual CRRs was developed

This logic preserves the spirit of the pro-rata funding
The metrics are based only on obligation CRRs
Metrics based on available data and still subject to

adjustments

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CRR payments and

ffsets were evenly

distributed between auction and allocation CRRs

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January February

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Pro-rata funding modestly decreased the auction revenue shortfall

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January February

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Top CRRs with surplus offsets saw a relatively narrow spread of adjustments

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Top CRRs with deficit offsets saw a relatively narrow spread of adjustments

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The 50 most traded CRRs (auction and allocation) saw a large spread of adjustments

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Appendix

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CRR offsets (surplus and deficits) are tracked separately by constraint

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Total CRR payment after pro-rata adjustments

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Total CRR Payment for February was approximately $29.5 million Total CRR Payment for January was approximately $14 million

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CRR deficit is pro-rata allocated by constraint to all impactful CRRs

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Monthly Deficit Amount for February was approximately $10 million Monthly Deficit Amount for January was approximately $1.2 million

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CRR surplus is allocated to measured demand

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Monthly Surplus Amount for February was approximately $8.8 million Monthly Surplus Amount for January was approximately $2.6 million

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CRRs observed a wide spread of adjustments

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Deficit Offset Surplus Offset

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Breakdown of CRR notional value and offset deficits (Millions $)

Notional Value Sink . CLAP DLAP SP THUB Source G 9.3 0.8

1.6 SP 3.0 0.6 2.3 THUB 0.3 0.5

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CRR Market Analysis discussion

Guillermo Bautista Alderete, Ph.D. Director, Market Analysis & Forecasting Market Surveillance Committee Meeting General Session April 4, 2019

Pro-rata funding logic for CRRs took effect in January 2019

Higher congestion was observed in February as compared to January

Based on its contribution to deficiency, each CRR portfolio saw accordingly a pro-rata adjustment

CRR portfolio adjustment for February CRR portfolio adjustment for January

CRR notional value is now estimated for each transmission constraint

Total CRR surplus includes both auction revenues and surplus offset, and all of that is allocated to measured demand

Pro-rata funding tracks the CRR surplus separately

With the pro-rata funding in place, Measured Demand has gotten additional $1.3 million and $9.7 million of CRR surplus allocated in January and February.

Day-ahead estimated flows, which accrue congestion rents, and CRR flows were both below the day-ahead cleared flow due largely to accounting for unscheduled flows

7750 D-ECASCO_OOS_CP6_NG nomogram

released in CRR market

CRR pro-rata funding logic is calculated at the CRR portfolio level

the CRR portfolio level and by constraint

portfolio-level settlements into individual CRRs was developed

adjustments

CRR payments and

distributed between auction and allocation CRRs

Pro-rata funding modestly decreased the auction revenue shortfall

Top CRRs with surplus offsets saw a relatively narrow spread of adjustments

Top CRRs with deficit offsets saw a relatively narrow spread of adjustments

The 50 most traded CRRs (auction and allocation) saw a large spread of adjustments

Appendix

CRR offsets (surplus and deficits) are tracked separately by constraint

Total CRR payment after pro-rata adjustments

Total CRR Payment for February was approximately $29.5 million Total CRR Payment for January was approximately $14 million

CRR deficit is pro-rata allocated by constraint to all impactful CRRs

Monthly Deficit Amount for February was approximately $10 million Monthly Deficit Amount for January was approximately $1.2 million

CRR surplus is allocated to measured demand

Monthly Surplus Amount for February was approximately $8.8 million Monthly Surplus Amount for January was approximately $2.6 million

CRRs observed a wide spread of adjustments

Deficit Offset Surplus Offset

Breakdown of CRR notional value and offset deficits (Millions $)

Notional Value Sink . CLAP DLAP SP THUB Source G 9.3 0.8

1.6 SP 3.0 0.6 2.3 THUB 0.3 0.5

Offset Sink . CLAP DLAP SP THUB Source G

SP

THUB