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Dynamic environment Dynamic environment
http://www.ignify.com/Ignify-eCommerce- Technical-Architecture.asp
CPSC 875 CPSC 875 John D McGregor John D. McGregor Risk, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CPSC 875 CPSC 875 John D McGregor John D. McGregor Risk, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CPSC 875 CPSC 875 John D McGregor John D. McGregor Risk, Uncertainty, and Options Dynamic environment Dynamic environment http://www.ignify.com/Ignify-eCommerce- Technical-Architecture.asp Risk 1 Risk 1 An event that could happen and if
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Risk‐1 Risk 1
- An event that could happen and if it did happen would cause
pp pp a loss of value is a risk.
- There are two major lines of mitigation:
– Reduce the probability of occurrence – Reduce the cost if it does occur
- There is a risk that the packet processing software will miss its
- There is a risk that the packet processing software will miss its
performance target resulting in loss of packets, unclear speech, and misunderstandings. Mitigation: simulate the architecture, measure actions required to process packets, propose alternative design, simulate and see if fewer actions are needed. are needed.
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Risk‐2 Risk 2
- One mitigation tactic is to design experiments
One mitigation tactic is to design experiments.
- More viable for software than hardware
id i i h j h d l h
- To avoid impacting the project schedule the
entire region that might be affected by a d i d i i b f d i d l design decision can be factored into a module that can be replaced.
- Then different designs can be created,
measured, and the winner inserted without the rest of the design being impacted.
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Risk ‐ 3 Risk 3
- Every experiment is the basis for an option
Every experiment is the basis for an option
- We can afford to run several experiments
d i f l
- But we need a notion of value
- There is no point in spending more than the
design is worth
- Also there is the cost of a production quality
p q y implementation once the choice is made
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Acknowledgement Acknowledgement
http://www.sei.cmu.edu/reports/07tr003.pdf
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Definitions Definitions
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Patterns Patterns
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Questions addressed Questions addressed
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Components of real options Components of real options
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Approaches to real options Approaches to real options
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Challenges ‐ 1 Challenges 1
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Challenges ‐ 2 Challenges 2
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Challenges ‐ 3 Challenges 3
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Architecture for example Architecture for example
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CIS as a real options problem CIS as a real options problem
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Elicited values Elicited values
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formula formula
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So here is what you are going to do So here is what you are going to do
- Examine your architecture for points of
Examine your architecture for points of uncertainty
- Develop an operational profile
- Develop an operational profile
- Return to a previous decision about a pattern
to use
- Consider the alternative patterns
- Describe the considerations about each