Covid-19, the Welfare State & Activation Policy Dr. Dermot - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Covid-19, the Welfare State & Activation Policy

• Dr. Dermot Coates & Jeff Dwan O’Reilly

IGEES & Department of Employment Affairs & Social Protection 17th September 2020

14:05 – 15:20

Part 1:

Expanding the footprint of the PES / Welfare State in response to Covid-19 Pandemic.

3 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Prior to the onset of the pandemic, Ireland had made significant strides in it’s economic recovery. By Q4 2019:

• Over 2.3 million people were in

employment – the highest level in the history of the state.

• Unemployment was at 4.7 percent,

almost “full employment”.

• This had been the 30th quarter in

succession where unemployment had declined on an annual basis.

The Pre-COVID World…

4 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

The Onset of the Pandemic

The pandemic was an abrupt & adverse shock to the economy. With many sectors and activities forced to close in line with public health restrictions, COVID adjusted unemployment peaked at 28.2 percent in April. DEASP acted quickly to introduce emergency income supports to assist displaced workers. By the end of April, over 1.1 million people were in receipt of State supports, either via the LR, PUP or the TWSS.

5 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

A Working Paper, entitled “The Initial Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ireland’s Labour Market”, was published on May 5th by DEASP, prepared in collaboration with the Central Bank of Ireland for consideration by the Labour Market Advisory Council. This paper found that in the initial weeks of the pandemic:

• On the basis of jobs lost (or displaced), the most severely impacted sectors are Tourism,

Hospitality and Food Services; Retail; and Construction.

• Those who had lost their jobs were more likely to be young, low-skilled and previously in part-

time employment, than the population average - reflecting the higher share of these workers in the sectors most affected (Retail and Hospitality).

• In examining the financial position of households, those previously employed in sectors where

the fall in employment is at least 25 per cent hold 2.4 per cent of their income as financial buffers, less than two weeks of gross income.

The Onset of the Pandemic … cont’d …

6 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

The Impacts of Reopening

July’s Covid-19 Adjusted Unemployment Rate was 16.7 percent, down from 23.1 percent in June. There are now 219,900 people in receipt of the PUP (Sept 8th), 63% reduction from the May 5th peak. Momentum in ‘outflows’ / ‘claims closed’ is anchored to reopening phases. The majority of outflow activity in sectors is during (and sometimes immediately prior to) their given reopening phase.

Note: For PUP claims closed, there is a time lag (approximately 10 days) between notification to DEASP and being reflected in the stock data.

Data source: DEASP, CSO and Revenue Data

7 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Proportion of employees by sector on State schemes

8 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Throughput of Enhanced Illness Benefit

Number of people medically certified for receipt of Enhanced Illness Benefit – Cumulative, by gender and age group

Part 2:

Changing Structures / Policy frameworks.

10 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

A Policy Paper, “Preparing for Economic Recovery”, was published in June. The Council’s recommendations included:

• Enhanced employer incentives and subsidies, by tailoring and expanding

the existing JobsPlus programme.

• Adapting and enhancing the existing short-time work support scheme

(STWS).

• Further collaboration with FET and education providers, aligning labour

market programmes with upskilling and re-skilling.

• Increasing the number of places available on funded work placements and

that they are linked to education and training. The LMAC was appointed by the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection in early 2020. First task: develop proposals to tackle the labour market challenges arising from the pandemic.

The Labour Market Advisory Council (LMAC)

11 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Forthcoming Policy Frameworks

• ‘Pathways to Work’ (2020 – 2025), is Ireland’s national employment services strategy and

represents the Government’s overall framework for activation and employment support policy.

• Pathways to Work will seek to:
• 1. Continue the goal of ensuring that as many jobs as possible go to those unemployed

through the provision of a quality Public Employment Service (PES),

• 2. Ensure better labour market outcomes are achievable for all groups in Ireland’s society,
• 3. Ensure our labour force is well positioned to respond to future economic challenges and

developments.

• Building on the July Stimulus, the ‘National Economic Plan’, represents Ireland’s long-term

approach to sustainably restoring employment in the wake of Covid-19.

• The key levers to be used under the NEP include: Education, training, and reskilling, Investment

and stimulus, Enterprise policy, Business financing and Regulation and costs.

Part 3:

The Changing Delivery of PES Activation Support.

Adaptation of PES Engagement Model

Pre-Covid 19 Living with Covid-19

Jobseeker had face-to-face meeting with a Case Officer. Case Officers to make preliminary contact with jobseekers through phone and other digital channels Online Information video (non-interactive) Face-to-face meetings to be reintroduced over time in line with health guidelines Digital augmentation to complement standard approach.

• During the current Covid-19

environment, the provision of employment support and activation services by the PES (Intreo) must be adaptable to meet demand.

• Services

must comply with social distancing requirements and public health guidelines.

• Increased utilization of new

modes

• f

service delivery

• ver time.

14 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Considerations for Digital Engagement Model

• The PES continues to explore the development and implementation of different channels
• f service provision to customers according to their needs and circumstances.
• This type of blended services provision may include a multichannel marketing/promotion

strategy, based on well-functioning technologies and reliable back-up support.

• Among the benefits of this self-service, multi-channel engagement model is that it will

allow for greater focus by Case Officers on providing in depth one-to-one support for those jobseekers most distant from the labour market.

• The PES is however, also cognisant of a number of potential issues associated with

digital service delivery, such as:

• 1. Broadband access is not equally available across the country,
• 2. Digital literacy levels of customers will vary.
• These issues will need to be addressed with our partners so as to facilitate appropriate

digital service delivery and access to all.

Annex:

From Peak to Present and the July Stimulus

16 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Economic re-opening has resulted in strong outflows from the PUP as individuals return to work. Since its peak on May 5th, the stock of PUP recipients has fallen by c.63 per cent to c.219,900 as at September 8th. However, comprising the PUP stock changes is an underlying weekly churn, whereby new claims are opened and put into payment, and existing recipients close their claim.

From Peak to Present: PUP Stock and Flows

Data source: DEASP

17 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Counties with the highest absolute number of PUP recipients in May have consequently seen the highest number of claim closures. Overall, counties have maintained their proportional share of total PUP recipients reflecting a nation- wide recovery. However, Dublin’s overall share has increased by c.6 per cent to 35 per cent of total. Concentration

• f certain activities and industries

(aviation, etc.) as of yet unviable to return fully are possible causes.

From Peak to Present: County Analysis

Data source: DEASP

18 An Roinn Gnóthaí Fostaíochta agus Coimirce Sóisialaí | Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

Those sectors worst hit by the pandemic and associated containment measures have seen the strongest recovery, in absolute terms, since the economy has begun to reopen. Construction has seen the largest reduction falling by c.79 per cent from

• peak. Moreover, its share of total PUP

recipients has reduced to 7.6 per cent compared to c.13 per cent at peak. The majority of outflow activity in sectors has been during their given reopening phase.

From Peak to Present: Sectoral Analysis

Data source: DEASP

The July Jobs Stimulus

Extension of PUP to April 2021 New work experience / placement programme Enhanced employer recruitment subsidy Extending access to the BTWEA, BTEA and the BTWFD schemes to PUP recipients 3,000 additional places on State Employment schemes (e.g. CE and Tús) 35,000 additional places in further and higher education. Apprenticeship Recruitment Incentive Enhanced short-time work scheme Employment Wage Support Scheme (to replace TWSS) will run until April 2021 – flat-rate subsidy per employee, including new and seasonal staff. Restart Grant for Enterprises extended to a broader base of SMEs and expanded by €300m Stay and Spend Incentive (tax credit

• f up to €125 for expenditure over

€625 on accommodation, food and nonalcoholic drinks from Oct – Apr).

Measures introduced include…