Covid-19 RCSCW Coronavirus Update May 15, 2020 Epidemic curve has - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Covid-19 RCSCW Coronavirus Update May 15, 2020 Epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. Data from the outbreaks in China and Italy shows the backside curve
RCSCW Coronavirus Update May 15, 2020
Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 80,000, it is possible that we lose another 80k people as we come off that peak. Data from the outbreaks in China and Italy shows the backside curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted.
50 100 150 200 250 300 Deaths All ages Deaths Age > 65 271 246
Maricopa County Covid-19 Deaths All Ages vs Age>65 Since April 7, 2020
Downward trajectory of influenza-like illnesses (ILI) reported within a 14-day Downward trajectory of covid- like syndromic cases reported within a 14-day period Downward trajectory of documented cases within a 14- day period
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
DAILY VARIATION IN MARICOPA COUNTY COVID 19 DEATHS AGE>65
Daily variance in Covid deaths Linear (Daily variance in Covid deaths)
In order to get infected you need to get exposed to an infectious virus.
Some estimate that as few as 1000 viral particles are needed for an infection to take hold.
1000 viral particles you could receive from one eye-rub 100 viral particles inhaled with each breath over 10 breaths 10 viral particles with 100 breaths.
A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. Most droplets are large, and fall quickly (gravity), but many do stay in the air and can travel across a room in a few seconds. Wear a MASK If you are sick – stay home!
If a person coughs or sneezes, those viral particles go everywhere. Some virus hang in the air, some fall onto surfaces, most fall to the ground.
So if you are face-to-face with a person, having a conversation, and that person sneezes or coughs straight at you, it's pretty easy to see how it is possible to inhale virus particles and become infected.
Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time
Anyone you spend greater than 10 minutes with, in a face-to-face situation is potentially infected Anyone who shares a space with you (say an office) for an extended period is potentially infected This is also why it is critical for people who are symptomatic to stay home. Your sneezes and your coughs expel so much virus that you can infect a whole room of people
Outside of the terrible outbreaks in nursing homes, the biggest outbreaks are
ceremonies, and workplaces Meat Packing Facilities Call Centers Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble
Meat processing plants have densely packed workers communicating to one another amidst the deafening drum of industrial machinery in a cold- room virus-preserving environment. There are now
workers infected, with 20 dead
Weddings, funerals, birthdays: 10% of early spreading events Business networking: Face-to-face business networking like the Biogen Conference in Boston in late February
Bathrooms have a lot of high touch surfaces, door handles, faucets, stall doors. Transfer risk in this environment can be high. We still do not know whether a person releases infectious material in feces or just fragmented virus, but we do know that toilet flushing does aerosolize many droplets. Treat public bathrooms with extra caution. WASH YOUR HANDS!!
A good example is the outbreak in a call center. A single infected employee came to work on the 11th floor of a
week, 94 of those people became infected. 92 of those 94 people became sick. This example serves to highlight that being in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection. This highlights the importance of exposure and time in the spreading of virus. WEAR A MASK !!
Social Distancing The principle is viral exposure over an extended period of time. Safety First
Indoor spaces, with limited air exchange or recycled air and lots of people, are concerning from a transmission standpoint. We know that 60 people in a volleyball court- sized room (church choir for example) results in massive infections. Same situation exists with restaurants and call centers. Social distancing guidelines don't hold in indoor spaces where you spend a lot of time. In all cases, people were exposed to the virus for a prolonged period (hours). Even if they were 50 feet away (choir or call center), even a low dose of the virus can reach them, over a sustained period, was enough to cause infection and in some cases, even death.
The effects of sunlight, heat, and humidity on viral survival, all serve to minimize the risk to everyone when outside
In these outdoor situations there is not enough time to achieve the infectious viral load when you are standing 6 feet apart or where wind and the infinite outdoor space for dilution reduces viral load
Distancing rules are really to protect you with brief or outdoor exposures
Assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low
How many people are here, how much airflow is there around me, and how long will I be in this environment. If you are in an open floorplan office, you really need to critically assess the risk (volume, people, and airflow). If you are in a job that requires face-to-face talking or even worse, yelling, you need to assess the risk. If you are sitting in a well-ventilated space, with few people, the risk is low.
If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for
for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. Outdoor recreation (Pickle Ball / Tennis, Lawn Bowling etc.) may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to open air dilution and movement. Physical distance is important, but the risk of infection in these scenarios are lower.
Professor Erin Bromage - Comparative Immunologist and Professor of Biology (specializing in Immunology) at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth.
Rec Centers of Sun City West
5/15/2020 38
This is a fluid plan, subject to change at any time due to several internal and external impacts*
Phase 2: Deep Cleaning Staff returns for mass deep cleaning, sanitizing, etc. Phase 3: Outdoor Sports & Library Curb-site Pickup RHJ and PR Pickleball, RHJ Tennis, Lawn Bowls, Horseshoes, Bocce, Beardsley and RHJ Mini Golf, Shuffleboard Phase 4: Indoor Walking Opportunities - TBD Indoor walking at RHJ Social and PR Summit Phase 5: Outdoor Pools – TBD – waiting on PPE We can be more restrictive despite Ducey allowing for opening; we are awaiting santizer, etc., for reopening at a future date TBD Phase 1: Golf Golf reopens with social distancing, no public play Crooked Putter: May 18 Monday, May 4 Beginning Monday, May 11 Mon-Tues, May 18-19 TBD TBD TBD Phase 6: All Remaining Facilities & Chartered Clubs Dependent on local case situation, member compliance, staff availability; Club-by-club basis dependent on capacity, touchpoints, ability to socially distance, etc.
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020 39
This is a fluid plan, subject to change at any time!
This is a fluid plan, subject to change at any time due to several internal and external impacts*
40
Golf reopens with social distancing, no public play
Crooked Putter reopens
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
Staff returns for mass deep cleaning, sanitizing, etc.
41
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
Some Outdoor, Open Air Venues reopen
42
OPEN NOT OPEN
card-no entry
subject to membership suspension
Centers’ equipment will be checked out
reservation (Hold My Court): https://suncitywest.com/rh-johnson- recreation-center-sun-city-west-az/
Shuffleboard 6-10 a.m. M-F
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
Curbside book pick-up reopens; Library access remains closed Drive through drop off open 7 days a week Phones to call in holds open 9 a.m.-2 p.m. Tuesday-Saturday
43
How does Curbside Pickup work?
an appointment.
Please allow 72 hours before your account will show your items as returned. * Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
Details:
time frame
scenario:
served; no loitering or queuing
day before you want to walk to receive a slip for your designated time the next day. Come no more than five minutes before your start time; no loitering or queuing. Leave promptly when your time ends. 44
OPEN NOT OPEN
(elevator/stair entry points do not allow for adequate social distancing)
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
Facilities included:
Facilities NOT included:
Details:
in locker rooms or on deck
them
45
OPEN NOT OPEN
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
46
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
When pools reopen, there will be limits to how many people can be in the pool and on the deck. Specific numbers TBD
Included in first wave:
will considered based on experience of outdoor facilities. Centers will reopen when sanitizing and social distancing can be safely achieved
will handle social distancing and sanitization not covered by Rec Centers. Included in final wave:
47
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
48
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
49
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
50
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020
Reservations taken by phone only for tours occurring after Aug. 1
51
* Plan may change due to: Resident and employee safety; state and federal orders; changes in Covid-19 case trends; personnel availability; resident compliance with safety instructions
5/15/2020