COVID-19 Modeling July 17, 2020 Presentation available at: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
covid 19 modeling july 17 2020
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

COVID-19 Modeling July 17, 2020 Presentation available at: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 18, 2022 37 likes •257 views

COVID-19 Modeling July 17, 2020 Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov National Data 2 Confirmed U.S. Cases Since July 4th 3 Source: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Data 4 Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins

slide-1
SLIDE 1

COVID-19 Modeling July 17, 2020

Presentation available at: dfr.vermont.gov

slide-2
SLIDE 2

2

National Data

slide-3
SLIDE 3

3

Confirmed U.S. Cases Since July 4th

Source: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

slide-4
SLIDE 4

4

National Data

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University - July 16, 2020

slide-5
SLIDE 5

5

National Data

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University - July 16, 2020

slide-6
SLIDE 6

6

National Trends: Unfavorable Trajectory

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—July 17, 2020

slide-7
SLIDE 7

7

Regional Data

slide-8
SLIDE 8

8

Source: New York Time Covid-19 Database

Regional Monitoring: New Cases Last 7 Days

Positive Cases July 2nd to July 8th Positive Cases July 9nd to July 16th

9.74% Increase in New Confirmed Cases

slide-9
SLIDE 9

9

Vermont’s Doubling Rate: 16 Weeks

Source: Johns Hopkins University - July 17, 2020

slide-10
SLIDE 10

10

RESTART VERMONT

  • 1. Syndromic Surveillance
  • 2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates
  • 3. Percentage of New Positive Tests
  • 4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity

Reopening Metrics

slide-11
SLIDE 11

11

Data Point 1: Syndromic Surveillance

  • Summary: Percentage of visits with COVID-19 like illness and Influenza diagnosis
  • Warning Flag: Percentage of visits exceeding 4% for multiple consecutive days

Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 17, 2020

slide-12
SLIDE 12

12

Data Point 2: Viral Growth and Reproductive Rates

  • Summary: Case growth measured by daily, 3-day, 7-day, and effective reproductive rate (Rt)
  • Warning Flags: Sustained viral growth that would lead to <30% of open ICU beds

Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 17, 2020

slide-13
SLIDE 13

13

Data Point 3: Percentage of New Positive Tests

  • Summary: Percent of tests resulting in a new positive case
  • Warning Flags: New positives represent >5% of daily results

Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 17, 2020

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14

Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds

  • Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds
  • Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%

Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 17, 2020

slide-15
SLIDE 15

15

Mobility Data: Small Weekly Increases in Movement

Source: Descartes Labs – July 13, 2020

slide-16
SLIDE 16

16

Vermont COVID-19 PCR Testing

Source: Vermont Department of Health - July 17, 2020; tests measured as results reported to VDH by day

slide-17
SLIDE 17

17

Travel Policy Update

slide-18
SLIDE 18

18

Travel Map: Updated Formatting

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—July 17, 2020 (dynamic map available at Vermont ACCD site)

slide-19
SLIDE 19

19

Updated Travel Map

slide-20
SLIDE 20

20

Travel Map: New Green Counties

slide-21
SLIDE 21

21

Travel Map: Counties with Unfavorable Growth

slide-22
SLIDE 22

22

Travel Policy Standards

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—July 17, 2020 (dynamic map available at Vermont ACCD site)

New York/Connecticut/New Jersey European Union

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—July 17, 2020