CORPORATE STRATEGY PRESENTATION
SEPTEMBER 2016
CORPORATE STRATEGY PRESENTATION SEPTEMBER 2016 FORWARD-LOOKING - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
CORPORATE STRATEGY PRESENTATION SEPTEMBER 2016 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND IMPORTANT NOTES These statements relate to future events or the Companys future The presentation contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking
SEPTEMBER 2016
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS AND IMPORTANT NOTES
2
The presentation contains forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. These statements relate to future events or the Company’s future performance and are based upon the Company’s internal assumptions and expectations. All statements other than statements of present or historical fact are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are
particularly and without limitation, this presentation contains forward-looking statements and information relating to petroleum and natural gas production estimates and weighting, projected crude oil and natural gas prices, future exchange rates, expectations as to royalty rates, expectations as to transportation and operating costs, expectations as to general and administrative costs and interest expense, expectations as to capital expenditures and net debt, planned capital spending, future liquidity and Delphi’s ability to fund ongoing capital requirements through operating cash flows and its credit facilities, supply and demand fundamentals for oil and gas commodities, timing and success of development and exploitation activities, cash availability for the financing of capital expenditures, access to third-party infrastructure, treatment under governmental regulatory regimes and tax laws and future environmental regulations. Furthermore, statements relating to “reserves” are deemed to be forward-looking statements as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that the reserves described can be profitable in the future. The forward-looking statements and information contained in this presentation are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by
stability of and commercial acceptability of tax, royalty and regulatory regimes applicable to Delphi, exploitation and development activities being consistent with management’s expectations, production levels of Delphi being consistent with management’s expectations, the absence of significant project delays, the stability of oil and gas prices, the absence of significant fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and interest rates, the stability
transportation, processing or marketing of oil and natural gas volumes, prices and availability of oilfield services and equipment being consistent with management’s expectations, the availability of, and competition for, among other things, pipeline capacity, skilled personnel and drilling and related services and equipment, results of development and exploitation activities that are consistent with management’s expectations, weather affecting Delphi’s ability to develop and produce as expected, contracted parties providing goods and services on the agreed timeframes, Delphi’s ability to manage environmental risks and hazards and the cost of complying with environmental regulations, the accuracy of operating cost estimates, the accurate estimation of oil and gas reserves, future exploitation, development and production results and Delphi’s ability to market oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers. Additionally, estimates as to expected average annual production rates assume that no unexpected outages occur in the infrastructure that the Company relies
determination of forecast revenues are based upon general economic conditions, commodity supply and demand forecasts and publicly available price forecasts. The Company continually monitors its forecast assumptions to ensure the stakeholders are informed of material variances from previously communicated expectations. Financial outlook information contained in this presentation about prospective results of operations, financial position or cash flows is based on assumptions about future events, including economic conditions and proposed courses of action, based on management’s assessment of the relevant information currently available. Readers are cautioned that such financial outlook information contained in this presentation should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements and information are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon. Since forward-looking statements and information address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Delphi’s actual results, performance or achievements could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits Delphi will derive therefrom. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should assumptions underlying forward-looking statements prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, the risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general such as operational risks in development, exploration and production, delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures, the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production rates, costs and expenses, commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations, marketing and transportation, environmental risks, competition from others for scarce resources, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources, changes in governmental regulation of the oil and gas industry and changes in tax, royalty and environmental legislation. Additional information on these and
and may be accessed through the SEDAR website (www.sedar.com). Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date of this presentation for the purpose of providing the readers with the Company’s expectations for the coming year. The forward-looking statements and information may not be appropriate for other
securities laws. The forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement. The following criteria reflects Montney economic modeling assumptions herein the presentation;
2017 prices: Henry Hub $3.13/mmbtu US, $4.09/mmbtu CDN; WTI $48.82/bbl USD; C5 $64.02/bbl CDN. 2018 Prices: Henry Hub $2.99/mmbtu US, $3.90/mmbtu CDN; WTI $50.93/bbl USD; C5 $66.22/bbl CDN. 2. Type Well stabilized field condensate beyond month six is 46 bbl/mmcf sales; Rich Type Well stabilized field condensate production beyond month one is 116 bbl/mmcf. 3.C3: Propane, C4: Butane, C5: Pentane. Gas plant recovered natural gas liquids estimated at 40 bbl/mmcf sales. 4.Alberta Modernized Royalty Framework for wells drilled after January 1, 2017. 5. Type Well reserves and production performance are internal management estimates and were prepared by a qualified reserves evaluator in accordance with the COGE Handbook. Delphi's 18 horizontal toe up Montney wells at East Bigstone with at least 30 stage fracs were time normalized, averaged and used to determine a proved plus probable reserve estimate. 6. Rich Type Well Shale gas reserve assumptions are based on year end 2015 GLJ proved plus probable ultimate recoverable assignment of 3.9 bcf for the 102/15-21-60-23W5 well which is the western most horizontal montney well brought on production at east Bigstone by Delphi as of December 31, 2015. 102/15-21 has a life to date field condensate to gas ratio (CGR) of 90 bbl/mmcf sales since coming on production in February 2014, an initial recoverable proved plus probable reserve CGR assignment of 85 bbl/mmcf sales (total ultimate recoverable P+P reserves of 1.1 mmboe) and a current CGR (July 2016) of 82 bbl/mmcf sales. The recent 103/13-21-60-23W5 well was restricted to flow up the tubing only and produced 2.6 mmcf/d sales of natural gas and 662 bbl/d of field condensate over it's first 30 days of production. Reserve estimates include estimated gas plant recovered natural gas liquids of 40 bbl/mmcf sales. 7. Reserve and production estimates are used for illustrative purposes and internal corporate planning and may not reflect the the actual performance of future wells. Economics are half cycle and include target capital to drill, complete, equip and tie-in. No costs for land, central facilities, field gathering infrastructure, corporate costs, etc. are included.
September 2016
CORPORATE SNAPSHOT
KEY OPERATIONAL FIGURES
July 2016 Production boe/d 8,500 (64% gas)
45.5 (67% gas) Current Production Capability 9,000 – 9,300 boe/d
2016 GUIDANCE
Average Annual Production (boe/d) 7,700 – 8,000 Exit Production Rate (boe/d) 9,000 – 10,000 2015 Production Rate Exit (boe/d) 8,300 NYMEX Natural Gas Price (US $ per mmbtu) $2.35 - $2.55 WTI Oil Price (US $ per bbl) $40.00 - $43.00 Natural Gas Liquids Price (Cdn $ per bbl) $17.00 - $19.00 Foreign Exchange Rate (US/Cdn) 1.30 – 1.35 Well Count 4.0 – 5.0 Net Capital Program ($ million) $33.0 - $38.0 Funds from Operations (“FFO”) ($ million) $31.0 - $34.0
(1) As of June 2016. Bank debt includes working capital and $6.0 million of Letters of Credit
Grande Prairie
Bigstone Montney
Edmonton Calgary
September 2016 3
CORPORATE INFORMATION
Ticker Symbol TSX:DEE Basic Shares Outstanding (mm) 155.5 Market Capitalization (mm) $160.0 Bank Debt
(1) / Credit Facility (mm)
$71.7 / $85.0 5 Year Senior Secured Notes (mm) $60.0
KEY VALUE HIGHLIGHTS
Pure Play Montney E&P Company with WORLD CLASS ASSETS AND A TRACK RECORD OF SUCCESS
Substantial drilling inventory on 139 sections of land; 8 sections currently fully developed Bigstone Montney economics remain attractive in the current commodity price environment Free cash generated at payout remains significant Targeting growth to 22,000 boe/d in 2019 utilizing existing major infrastructure, increase of 160% 100% owned and operated field facilities and pipelines to support profitable growth Operate 100% of Montney development with an average working interest of 84% Drilling and completion costs down 33 percent and operating costs down 30%, since 2014 Secured firm service with Alliance to access Chicago gas market for better pricing and fewer curtailments Significant hedged position in place through 2019 Added $95 million in cash as a result of an exceptional hedging program Reduced debt by 30% from the sale of non-core assets – now 100% focused at Bigstone Achieving targets within cash flow to accelerate 2017 growth with increased liquidity Replacing PDP reserves with higher netback boe’s than depleting – turning $1 spent into $2 returns Moderating short-term pace of spend while preserving long-term growth inventory Exceptional management team with a track record of value creation Frac innovations and increased condensate yields leading to better margins Top tier well results and capital efficiencies – 2 mile extended reach drilling improving overall well results Delivering top quartile PDP F&D costs and recycle ratios
WORLD CLASS MONTNEY GROWTH ASSET 100% OPERATIONAL CONTROL MARKET ACCESS & EXCEPTIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESPONSIBLY MANAGED PROFITABLE GROWTH EXECUTIONAL EXCELLENCE
September 2016 4
BIGSTONE MONTNEY OVERVIEW
5
Scalable and Repeatable Liquids Rich Large Resource in Place
Southeast corner of the unconventional Montney trend Developed with extended reach horizontal wells and slickwater fracing - material capital cost advantage Continuous hydrocarbon system top to bottom Nearby deltaic sediment supply Relatively high permeability with a fine sand/silt reservoir Relatively high porosity ranging from 4% to 12% Field condensate yields at over 55 bbl/mmcf; recent yields materially higher Significant additional liquids extracted through gas processing Top decile gas rate wells with > 5 mmcf/d IP30’s Thickness of 100 metres - increasing to the west Multiple layers to develop
Porous and Permeable
September 2016
Edmonton
Bigstone Montney
Grande Prairie
6
50 100 150 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Producing* Wells by Rig Release Date Total Wells: 724
Delphi maintains a 100% success rate
20 40 60 80 100
Company 1 Company 2 Other Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Company 6 Company 7 Delphi Company 8
Producing Wells by Operator
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
IP180 (mcfd raw)
418 wells
Bigstone
Karr Wapiti Kakwa Simonette
BIGSTONE – SOUTHERN END OF PROLIFIC LIQUIDS RICH MONTNEY TREND
Top 3 for 6-Month Production Rates Top 10 in # of Montney Wells Drilled
September 2016
* 473 Wells with IP90 or greater
Elmworth
DOMINANT LAND POSITION IN BIGSTONE MONTNEY
Legend
Delphi continues to identify and pursue additional land consolidation opportunities within the Greater Bigstone area
Largest Land Position at Bigstone Bigstone Activity by Region
East Bigstone – manufacturing / development West Bigstone – industry activity derisking South Bigstone – exploration opportunity There is presence of and development activity by super-majors; Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips operate in the general area Montney land position grown from 4.0 to 139 gross (117.1 net) sections since 2010 Delphi is currently the largest landowner at Bigstone Significant land position allows for efficient
scalable development 8 sections currently fully developed with substantial room to grow through drilling Drilling program moving west into ultra-rich condensate region
September 2016 7
WEST BIGSTONE SOUTH BIGSTONE EAST BIGSTONE
Other
Rge25W5 Rge24
STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE AT BIGSTONE
Significant Infrastructure In Place
100% owned 55 mmcf/d sour dehy and compression facilities Legacy sour processing capacity available at SemCAMS K3 and KA Connected to Pembina, TCPL and Alliance Ownership of 40 mmcf/d sweet processing infrastructure 100% owned water disposal well
Ability to grow to 22,000 boe/d utilizing current major infrastructure
$4.00 $5.00 $6.00 $7.00 $8.00 $9.00 $10.00 $11.00 $12.00 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E Operating Costs ($/boe)
Montney Operating Costs
Operating cost decrease by 30% since 2014 to $5.87/boe in Q2/16
September 2016 8
DEE 7-11 55 mmcf/d Montney Facility To SemCAMS Future DEE Amine Plant To TCPL TLM BWGP 85 mmcf/d Plant DEE Negus 11-03 Gas Plant DEE 5-810 mmcf/d Montney Facility
MARKET ACCESS ADVANTAGE
9
Exceptional Gas Marketing
Secured firm service agreement to access larger Chicago gas market for better pricing Pricing has been significantly better that AECO Secured firm service minimizing exposure to curtailments on the TCPL pipeline system Ability to grow to 22,000 boe/d over the next 3 years utilizing current major infrastructure
September 2016
Delphi / Alliance Full-path service to Chicago
DELPHI / ALLIANCE FIRM TRANSPORTATION SERVICE
10
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20
Delphi Transportation Capacity on Alliance / TCPL (mmcf/d)
TCPL Firm Alliance Firm
July 2016 Average Natural Gas Production
Staged firm service capacity on Alliance to deliver natural gas to the Chicago gas market with priority interruptible service allocation of an additional 25%
agreement. Incremental firm service on TCPL beginning April 2018 as part of TCPL expansion. Renewal rights on firm service included in agreement.
September 2016
CONSISTENT AND PROVEN RISK MANAGEMENT PROGRAM
Majority of near term production is hedged Event driven natural gas hedging strategy with a long term view of a relatively balanced supply & demand; Strategy is proven and repeatable
event cycles Risk management contracts generally put in place over a 12 to 48 month period Over a 10 year period risk management program has: Realized $95 million in hedging gains Increased revenues by 8% Increased cash flow by 18% Added $3.35/boe to netback
$0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35
Hedging Gains/Losses ($millions)
Polar Vortex lifting natural gas prices in 2014 Natural gas price spike in 2008 Steady decline of natural gas prices from 2009 to 2013 Collapse of both natural gas and crude oil prices
Consistent Hedge Performance
Natural Gas
2H/16 Q1/17 Q2 - Q4/17 2018 2019 % Hedged 78% 73% 59% 30% 21% Hedge Price (Cdn $/mmbtu) $4.44 $4.28 $4.21 $3.77 $3.89
Crude Oil
2H/16 Q1/17 Q2 - Q4/17 2018 2019 % Hedged 49% 16% 16% Floor Price (WTI Cdn $/bbl) $76.44 $60.00 $60.00 Ceiling Price (WTI Cdn $/bbl) $85.00 $60.00 $60.00
September 2016 11
28 BIGSTONE MONTNEY WELLS DRILLED
12
Drilled 5 horizontal wells in 2012;
Average IP30: +1,200 boe/d (19% liquids) Conventional gelled oil frac designs Began extended reach laterals of 2,200 m to 3,000 m which improved costs
Drilled 20 horizontal wells from 2013 – 2015;
Average IP30: +1,440 boe/d (30% liquids) First mover in slickwater hybrid frac design - improved production performance Continued innovation of the slickwater frac design Delineation of East Bigstone focused on high productivity infill drilling
Drilling 4 to 5 horizontal wells in 2016;
Moving west to target higher condensate yields and increased pay thickness Company evaluating increased well density from 4 laterals per section to 5 or 6
Significant drilling inventory on 139 sections for 2017 and beyond with high condensate yields
Progressive improvements in Drilling Results
September 2016
Legend
2012-2015 (24 wells) 2016 (4 to 5 wells) DEE 7-11 Sour Facility Expanded to 55 mmcf/d in Q1 2016 DEE 5-8 Sour Facility 10 mmcf/d
MONTNEY GROWTH AT BIGSTONE
Bigstone Montney Liquids-Rich Gas Play
Montney Production
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Exit) Growth is accelerating into 2017 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Exit) Montney condensate production is accelerating with increasing yields
Montney Field Condensate Production
September 2016 13
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(F) 2017 Target 6 8 6 5 4-5
Delphi Montney Wells Drilled
7-10
Southeast corner of Alberta liquids-rich Montney trend, 100 – 300 bbl/mmcf Condensate & NGL 28 wells drilled life-to-date in the Montney from 2012 to Q2 2016 139 gross sections of Montney rights (84% average working interest) Thickness of 100m - increasing to the west Better than average rock quality – higher Permeability & Porosity , normal to overpressured reservoirs
CONSISTENT ECONOMIC RESERVE GROWTH
14
2012 2013 2014 2015 43,434 50,728 33,100 11,006
3 year full-cycle 2P FDA of $10.62/boe LTD netback of $19.65/boe 30 undeveloped locations
2012 2013 2014 2015 11,626 9,781 4,370 1,178
Economic Montney reserve growth with 2015 PDP FDA
Montney Proved Producing Reserves (mboe) Montney 2P Reserves (mboe)
September 2016
28 wells drilled life-to-date (LTD) Produced 7.2 million boes in 4.5 years Generated $127 million in field operating income Cumulative capital of $312 million Including $40 million of infrastructure costs
Significant Inventory for growth Montney Development (2012 to Q2 2016)
2015 drilling program was focused on infill locations; 19% PDP reserve growth 8 of 139 sections are fully developed Only 30 undeveloped locations in 2P reserves 2016 drilling program focused on moving west
HIGHER CONDENSATE YIELDS BOOSTING ECONOMICS
Larger fracs Higher pump rates Higher sand concentrations Enhanced fracture complexity Increased condensate yields Successfully re-frac’d first well
Continuing Frac Innovation
September 2016 15
80 93 132 140 140 250
100 150 200 250 300 Type Well 15-23 14-24 14-27 16-30* Refrac 13-21 Field Condensate Yield (bbls/mcf)
*Not at IP30 yet
IP30 Montney Field Condensate Yields
Frac innovation yielding more condensate Netbacks 1.2 to 1.8 times higher
DEE 12-17 2013 Drill IP30 CGR 62 bbl/mmcf XTO 2015 Drill CGR 260 bbl/mmcf (based on public data) DEE Type Well IP30 CGR 80 bbl/mmcf DEE 13-21 2015 Drill IP30 CGR 252 bbl/mmcf ATH 2015 Wells IP30 CGR 158 to 242 bbl/mmcf DEE 16-30 Refrac IP7 day CGR 140 bbl/mmcf
Most recent wells
OUTSTANDING WELL PERFORMANCE
16 September 2016
Well Count Sales Production Rate Gas Field Total Condensate Condensate Yield mmcf/d bbl/d boe/d bbl/mmcf
IP30 20 4.8 456 1,444 95 IP90 20 4.2 331 1,203 79 IP180 18 3.6 236 984 65 IP270 16 3.2 195 853 61 IP365 14 2.9 168 766 58
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
IP90 (mcfd raw)
473 wells of 724 wells drilled
88 48 16 33 20 94 59 26 473 30 57
At day 158 13-21 gas rate flat at 3mmcf/d Condensate yield at 115 bbl/mmcf sales
DELPHI WELL COST IMPROVEMENTS
17
Delphi Well Costs
Montney Capital Efficiencies
September 2016
Delphi Well Costs IP90 Day Capital Efficiencies
Montney Capital Efficiencies
5,000 10,000 15,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
90 Day D&C $ Efficiency ($/boe/d) 90 Day Comp $ Efficiency ($/boe/d)
Capital Efficiency ($/boe/d)
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
Drilling Costs Completion Costs
Average Costs ($000) Average Completion Cost/Stage ($000)
Well costs ↓ 35%
Drilling & Completions: Average drilling & completion costs per well have trended down by 35%; $11 million in 2012 to $7 million in most recent three wells. Record low drilling & completions cost of $6.5 million achieved Additional cost savings are being achieved; 3 - 4 wells per pad from 2 well pads 100% owned water disposal facility IP90 Capital Efficiencies: Top decile efficiencies of $6,000 boe/d. Achieved through cost reductions and robust IP90 rates of 1,200 boe/d.
Bigstone Montney Toe Up Two Section Horizontal Hypothetical Type Wells 30+ stage Slickwater Completion
Economics/Metrics - August 31, 2016 Strip Pricing(1) Type Well Rich Type Well Payout yrs 1.6 1.3 IRR % 56% 81% NPV 10 MM$ $5.6 $10.2 PI 1.8 2.5 F&D $/boe $6.42 $5.51 Target Capital Type Well Rich Type Well D,C,E&TI MM$ $7.0 $7.0 Initial Sales Production (IP30 - first 30 day average) Gas mmcf/d 5.1 3.6 Field Condensate(2) bbl/mmcf 98 185 Total Liquids (C3+)(2,3) bbl/mmcf 137 224 Total Liquids (C3+)(2,3) bbl/d 696 804 Total IP30 boe/d 1,542 1,402 IP365 (first 365 day average) Gas mmcf/d 2.9 2.2 Field Condensate(2) bbl/mmcf sales 62 125 Total Liquids (C3+)(2,3) bbl/mmcf sales 101 165 Total Liquids (C3+)(2,3) bbl/d 296 360 Total IP365 boe/d 783 724 Reserves (sales) Gas bcf 4.3 3.9 Liquids (C3+)(2,3) mmbbl 0.4 0.6 Total mmboe 1.1 1.3
MONTNEY ECONOMIC MODEL
18 September 2016
Rich Type Well
13-21 Yield 2.5x Type Well at 100 bbl/mmcf
Note: See Montney Economic Model Assumptions in the Forward Looking Statement and Important Notes
DEE Type Well
DRILLING PLANS MOVING WEST
19
Montney pay thickness increasing; 6 laterals per section spacing Multi-layer drilling Natural gas is sweet; DEE sweet infrastructure 40 mmcf/d capacity Lower Operating Costs Condensate and NGL yields; 2x to 4x greater than East Bigstone type curve Slickwater “frac design” Reservoir pressure increases Significant drilling opportunity
Bigstone West
September 2016
DEE 9-4 Well Conventional Gelled Oil Frac in 2012 DEE activity planned for 2H 2016 and 2017 25 – 30 well inventory just in this small area
Legend
Drilled Drilling 2017 WEST EAST DEE 13-21 Well IP90 1,077 boe/d CGR 194 bbl/ mmcf condensate
19
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
88 48 16 33 20 94 59 26 473 30 57
2017 AND BEYOND – MAINTAINING KEY VALUES
20
Continued new well innovation; Significant infrastructure and processing capacity in place
World Class Montney Asset 100% Operational Control Land Inventory Market Access Performance
Targeting growth to 22,000 boe/d in 2019 utilizing existing major infrastructure, increase of 160% No significant infrastructure capital required in this environment, low operational costs Operating efficiency gains lifting “unhedged” netbacks through 2017 139 sections of Montney opportunity to continue developing Top Decile for 3-Month Production Rates
IP90 (mcf/d) 473 Wells of 724 Wells Drilled
Secured firm service with Alliance to access Chicago gas market for better pricing
September 2016
INDIVIDUAL MONTNEY WELL DATA
22
from 1.0 years previously:
Slow-back experiment
September 2016
COMMODITY PRICES: MANAGING VOLATILITY
23
Volatility creates hedging
September 2016
CDN/US FX
NYMEX Contract Pricing
GAS US$/MMBTU CRUDE US$/BBL Natural gas prices were historically correlated to Crude prices
NYMEX NatGas vs. Crude Historical Settlement Pricing
Commodity price volatility creates 2 to 4 year hedging cycles
HEDGES PROTECTING CASH FLOW
24
Natural Gas (Cdn) Jul – Dec 2016 Jan – Mar 2017 Apr – Dec 2017 Volume (mmcf/d) 2.4 2.4 2.4 % Hedged (1) 7% 7% 7% Hedge Price (Cdn $/mcf) (2) $3.89 $3.96 $3.96 Strip Price (Cdn $/mcf) $2.68 $2.98 $2.75 Natural Gas (US) Jul – Dec 2016 Jan – Mar 2017 Apr – Dec 2017 2018 2019 Volume (mmbtu/d) 23.3 21.8 17.0 10.0 7.0 % Hedged (1) 71% 66% 52% 30% 21% Hedge Price (US $/mmbtu) $3.50 $3.24 $3.20 $2.87 $2.92 Strip Price (US $/mmbtu) $2.96 $3.25 $3.04 $2.97 $2.94 % Hedged in Cdn $ (3) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Hedge Price (Cdn $/mmbtu) (4) $4.50 $4.31 $4.24 $3.77 $3.89 Crude Oil Jul – Dec 2016 Jan – Mar 2017 Apr – Dec 2017 Volume (bbls/d) 900 300 300 % Hedged (1) 49% 16% 16% Floor Price (WTI Cdn $/bbl) $76.44 $60.00 $60.00 Ceiling Price (WTI Cdn $/bbl) (5) $85.00 $60.00 $60.00 Strip Price (WTI Cdn $/bbl) $63.42 $65.59 $67.45
(1) Percent hedged is based on expected 2H 2016 average natural gas production of approximately 33 mmcf/d and 1,850 bbls/d of condensate and C5+. (2) Before deduction of transportation costs to ship production to AECO on the TCPL pipeline (3) Percent of US $ hedge value locked in with Cdn/US FX hedges (4) Before deduction of transportation costs to ship production to Chicago on the Alliance pipeline (5) 400 bbls/d have upside to a ceiling price of $85.00 per barrel at a deferred cost of $4.02 per barrel
September 2016
YIELD GROWTH REPLACES HEDGING GAINS IN 2017
25
$10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 50 100 150 200 250 300
Revenue ($/boe) Field Condensate Yield (bbl/mmcf sales)
15-30 Life-to-Date 14-27 IP30 Type Well 15-21 Life-to-Date Recycle Ratio = 1.5
2017 Strip Price
AECO Nat Gas: Cdn$2.47/mcf NYMEX Nat Gas: US$2.50/mmbtu WTI: US$45.00/bbl Condensate: Cdn$54.50/bbl NGLs: Cdn$16.50/bbl 13-21 IP30 Recycle Ratio = 2.3 14-24 IP30 $12.00/boe increase in revenue (before hedges) $2.10/boe hedging gain forecast in 2017 2016 2016
2017 drilling program will continue to generate robust new well revenue and netbacks even with less hedging than 2016 New richer wells generate up to a 2.3 PDP recycle ratio in 2017
PDP F&D of $10.00/boe Cash costs of 16.00/boe
September 2016
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY ELMWORTH TO BIGSTONE
26
Elmworth Wapiti Kakwa Delphi Bigstone Large Data Set 473 Montney wells with IP90 of 724 wells drilled to YE2015
Source of Data: geoSCOUT 26 September 2016
Company 6 Company 7 Delphi Company 3 Company 4 Company 1 Company 2 Company 8 Company 5 Other
27
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Producing* Wells by Rig Release Date
Total Wells (with IP90): 473
*produced for at least 90 days
20 40 60 80 100
Company 1 Company 2 Other Company 3 Company 4 Company 5 Company 6 Company 7 Delphi Company 8
Producing Wells by Operator
27 September 2016
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY ELMWORTH TO BIGSTONE
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY PRODUCTION BY OPERATOR (GAS IP’S ONLY)
28
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
IP90 (mcfd raw)
473 wells
88 48 16 33 22 94 59 26 473 30 57
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
IP180 (mcfd raw)
418 wells
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
IP365 (mcfd raw)
288 wells
21 41 15 56 76 77 47 24 418 30 31 15 20 50 24 44 29 34 29 17 288 26
28 September 2016
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Average Horizontal Length (m)
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY EVOLUTION OF DEPTH & HORIZONTAL LENGTH
29
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Measured Depth (m)
9 20 42 61
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Horizontal Length (m)
Delphi Avg Delphi Avg
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Average Measured Depth (m)
2 101 177 61 101 177 61 61 9 20 42 2 88 22 30 33 48 26 57 59 94 16 473 88 22 30 33 48 26 57 59 94 16 473
29 September 2016
5 10 15 20 25 30 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Number of Stages per Well
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY EVOLUTION OF FRAC DENSITY
30
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Frac Spacing (m)
Delphi Avg (97m)
2 9 19 40 60 100 176 59 2 6 16 39 51 166 50 85
Delphi Avg (29 stages)
30 September 2016
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Average Number of Stages per well
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Average Frac Spacing (m)
31
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35 36 - 40
Number of Wells
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35 36+
IP90 (mcfd raw)
465 wells
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35 36 - 40
IP180 (mcfd raw)
411 wells
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35 36 - 40
IP365 (mcfd raw)
285 wells
Stages per Well Stages per Well Stages per Well Stages per Well
18 80 149 90 79 21 28 16 76 133 75 70 20 21 12 66 93 48 47 11 8
31 September 2016
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY EVOLUTION OF FRAC DENSITY
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY EVOLUTION OF PROPPANT PLACED
32
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Proppant Placed
tonnes t/m 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
0.00 - 0.25 0.26 - 0.50 0.51 - 0.75 0.76 - 1.00 1.01 - 1.25 1.26 - 1.50 1.51 +
IP-90 (mcfd raw)
t/m 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
0.00 - 0.25 0.26 - 0.50 0.51 - 0.75 0.76 - 1.00 1.01 - 1.25 1.26 - 1.50 1.51 +
IP-180 (mcfd raw)
t/m
25 43 74 128 77 60 52 25 38 119 70 68 51 34 2 8 19 42 61 100 175 59
Delphi Avg (0.76 t/m) 32 September 2016
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY EVOLUTION OF FLUID PUMPED
33
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fluid Pumped
m3/well m3/m 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
0.0 - 2.0 2.1 - 4.0 4.1 - 6.0 6.1 - 8.0 8.0+
IP-90 (mcfd raw)
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
0.0 - 2.0 2.1 - 4.0 4.1 - 6.0 6.1 - 8.0 8.0+
IP-180 (mcfd raw)
m3/m m3/m
110 193 64 54 45 107 163 57 49 36 2 8 19 42 61 100 175 59
Delphi Avg (3.65 m3/m) 33 September 2016
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY FRAC TYPES
34
228 176 107 45 50 100 150 200 250
Fracs by Fluid Type
34 September 2016
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 IP-90 IP-180 IP-1YR IP-2YR IP-3YR
Fracs by Fluid Type (mcfd raw) slickwater water
surfactant
35
10 20 30 40 50 60
Average Drilling Days
57 17 31 21 25 94 47 61 19 89 36 497
35 September 2016
LIQUIDS-RICH MONTNEY STUDY DRILLING EFFICIENCY
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Average Horizontal Length (m)
50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Penetration Rate (m/d)
Delphi Avg
Only 2 wells in 2008 dataset (both with horizontal lateral lengths less than 800m)
Over a 6 year period, industry improved
almost 50%. The faster a well can be drilled, the less it costs.
300, 500 – 4th Avenue SW Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V6 P (403) 265-6171 F (403) 265-6207 info@delphienergy.ca www.delphienergy.ca