Corporate Presentation November, 2016 Important Notice Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Corporate Presentation November, 2016 Important Notice Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Corporate Presentation November, 2016 Important Notice Forward Looking Information No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece
1 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty. Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been
- btained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any
such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on them. Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to
- pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are
advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.
Legal
Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
Table of Contents 1
Overview
2
Financial Highlights
3
Liquidity
4
Profitability
5
Asset quality
6
Capital
7
Macro
8
Appendix
Overview
1
4 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Comprehensive strategy to tap the Greek recovery potential
Overview
Utilize high coverage and capital levels to work through NPLs Deploy liquidity to support the recovery of the Greek economy Deliver RoTE in excess of cost of capital with low execution risk
Deeply r
Deeply rooted customer relationships
Deeply r
Strong brand recognition
5 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
28.5% 27.1% 19.6% 15.4% NBG Peer 1 Peer 3 Peer 2
Strong brand recognition and deeply rooted customer relationships
Deeply rooted customer relationships
Limited participation in M&A activity during Greek banking sector consolidation has safeguarded NBG’s identity, client relationships and has enhanced service experience
- No brand contamination
- Culture preservation and consistency in service with focus on innovation and
improvements
- Well positioned to manage loan performance and troubled assets
− Knowledge of customer base (KYC) − Consistent, conservative underwriting standards
- Well positioned to attract deposit inflows
Core deposit market share (9M16)(2) Total deposits/ branch
Source: Company disclosure Notes: (1) Based on C.A.P.I. tracking study during the period April-June 2015 (2) Core deposits include current, sight and savings. Greek deposit market as per the BoG definition includes deposits of the general government. (3) Includes 1 private banking unit (4) Not including SBLs
Strategically positioned with high customer penetration
Bank of reference in Greece for over 170 years
S a m
- s
- High customer penetration
− 6mn retail customers − c.8,500 corporate
clients (4)
− 1,456 ATMs − 69.030 POS − 3,9 m debit cards
- 524 (3) branches providing
full and efficient geographic coverage
179 45 Thessaloniki Athens 33% 28% 22% 17% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 34% 27% 23% 20% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Best Reputation (Survey) (1) Most Trustworthy (Survey)(1)
Reputational excellence in Greece: “premium brand of choice”
Next 20 Big Cities: 76 Prefectural capitals: 74 Rest of Greece: 150
€68.6m €54.2m €45.0m €52.8m
Overview
6 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Technology and innovation provide new value added services
Source: NBG
14.7m 17.6m
Internet users Electronic transactions
21.0m 870K 1,123K 1,285K 2014 2015 9M16 €25.0bn €25.9bn €28.8bn 2014 2015 9M16
i-bank Store Premium Branches
Modern and sophisticated bank offering premium cashless and digital services
Strategic emphasis on developing and upgrading the i-bank platform has resulted in significant transaction growth
Following imposition of capital controls NBG issued c.1.2m debit cards and opened 300,000 e-banking accounts. Debit card transaction volumes increased 6x yoy
- Extensive e-banking platform with ancillary value adding services (e.g. money
transfers, share trading, payment of dues to tax authorities and other companies and organizations)
- Highly innovative i-bank store platform targeting young age groups
- Premium banking provides a personalized service to the affluent segment
- Upgrading digital infrastructure a key priority
- First full banking relationship loyalty program:
- Number of customers at 450K (+50%) in June 2016 vs 300K in the end of 2015
- Encourages stronger banking relationship by rewarding more than 30 products, services and
transactions
- Online point attribution to customers, real time view of the point balance
- Wide network of participating merchants including super markets, gas stations, department
stores, telecommunications, hi –tech stores, as well as selected NBG products
Selected digital and premium initiatives Old but not old fashioned Strong digital channels
Overview
7 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Leader in low cost savings deposits Leader in mortgages
NBG aims to capitalize on strong client relationships and superior liquidity position, to increase exposure in business lending, benefitting NIM
Overview
Leader in P&C and life insurance
Levering up to increase exposure in business lending
NBG 26.3%
#1
NBG 19.8%
#3
NBG 35.6%
#1
NBG 19.0%
#1
Market shares: Life: 26% Non-Life: 11%
8 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Corporate Balance (€bn)
- f which
(denounced) #Clients FTEs Large Corporates 1.7 0.5 400 35 SMEs 2.6 1.4 4,040 96 SBL(Legal Entities) 1.4 0.8 12,671 96 Legal, Control & Operational 55 Total 5.7 2.7 17,111 282
Dedicated and independent internal units for retail collections and corporate NPL management
Corporate NPL Management
- Special Assets Unit (“SAU”) is a centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility for the
management of corporate NPLs with:
− Vertically integrated management to ensure single point accountability and
efficient decision making
− Dedicated SAU RMs and separate Credit Committees − Clear prioritisation strategy based on ageing, size, collateralisation levels and
legal status
− Internally developed tools to prioritise alternative strategies and assess debtors’
viability
− Short-term and longer-term target setting and RM productivity monitored
monthly
− Certain corporate exposures are managed by the business unit Overview of Portfolio (30.09.2016) Retail Collections Unit
- Retail Collections Unit (“RCU”) is an independent unit focused on management of
retail NPLs and collections
− Centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility − Strategy differentiated by customer segmentation: collecting in early buckets,
restructuring subsequently, legal actions according to selection criteria, and settlements for >360dpd
− New restructuring products designed to ensure solution sustainability based on
PTI and on client’s disposable income after subtracting reasonable living expenses
− Tight performance monitoring of internal collection center and external
agents and lawyers through comprehensive KPIs
− Champion/challenger tactics frequently employed to test new segment strategies
based on cohort attributes (profession, income, dpd, collateral) Retail Balance (€bn) Treatment Clients (‘000) FTE Mortgages 7.0 Collections 107 225 Consumer 3.3 Restructuring 49 159 Micro-SBL 1.2 Legal/ 223 338 Settlements Total 11.6 379 721 Branches (execution) 867 Various support functions 125
- c. 2,000 FTEs deployed in
collections and NPL management
Notes: all NBG figures refer to domestic Greek business (1) SME: small & medium enterprises (2) SBL: small business loans
(1) (2)
Overview
9 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Asset mix (€ b)
Other, 10.8 DTA, 5.1 SEE & Other net loans, 6.0 Domestic net loans, 31.9 EFSF/ESM bonds, 9.3 Securities, 13.8 Interbank placements, 2.9 Cash, 2.0 81.7 Assets
Assets – liabilities mix – 9M16: low ELA exposure, deposit funded loanbook
Overview
Liability mix (€ b)
Total equity and minorities, 9.8 Other Liabilities, 10.1 Debt securities, 1.5 SEE & Other deposits, 6.6 Time & Other, 11.9 Current & Sight, 6.4 Savings, 17.7 ELA, 5.2 ECB, 7.5 Interbank liabilities, 5.2 81.7 Liabilities Domestic deposits 36.0
10 Corporate Presentation – November 2016 Overview
NBG major shareholders: International institutional accounts at 48%, HFSF at 40%
HFSF 40.4% Domestic retail 8.4% Domestic institutionals 1.7% Domestic legal entities 1.8% Int'l Institutionals 47.5% Other 0.2% Domestic investors: 12.0%
Financial Highlights
2
12 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
€ m 9M16 9M15 yoy 3Q16 2Q16 qoq NII 1 446 1 431 +1% 485 482 +1% Fees & Commissions1 222 215 +3% 73 76
- 4%
Pillar-2 costs (51) (143)
- 64%
(6) (15)
- 61%
Insurance income 52 83
- 37%
12 23
- 50%
Trading & other income (61) (208)
- 71%
(13) (43)
- 70%
Income 1 608 1 379 +17% 551 524 +5% Operating Expenses (947) (966)
- 2%
(318) (319) 0% Core PPI 723 620 +17% 245 247
- 1%
PPI 662 412 +61% 232 205 +14% Provisions (547) (2 936)
- 81%
(182) (208)
- 12%
Operating Profit 114 (2 524) n/m 51 (3) n/m Other impairments (66) (223)
- 71%
(20) (12)
- 66%
PBT 48 (2 746) n/m 31 (15) n/m Taxes (23) 1 053 n/m (8) (9)
- 12%
PAT (cont. ops) 26 (1 694) n/m 23 (23) n/m PAT (discount. ops) (2,957) (444) >100%
- (3.028)
n/m Minorities (28) (27) +3% (7) (10)
- 31%
Other one-offs
- (9)
- 100%
- n/m
Attributable PAT2 (2,959) (2 174) +36% 16 (3.062) n/m
P&L Highlights
- 1. Excludes Pillar-2 costs
- 2. Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income related to Finansbank. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has
no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16
9M16 Group PAT from continuing operations in the black at € 26m
Highlights
Group P&L
Group 9M16 PAT from continuing operations reaches €26m vs losses of €1.7b in 9M15. This result reflects improving trends in the domestic as well as the SEE businesses
- 9M16 Group core income reaches €1.67b, up by 5% yoy, driven by
domestic funding cost improvements deriving from the elimination of Pillar 2 and 3 exposure, reduction of ELA funding and the repricing of time deposits; Q3.16 Group core income stood at €563m (flat qoq) reflecting higher NII (+1% qoq) and fees (+10% qoq) as well as lower income from insurance (-€12m qoq, or -50% qoq) due to the hit from lower interest rates on reserves
- 9M16 Group OpEx, down by 2% yoy, was driven by personnel (-1%
yoy) and G&A (-5% yoy); imminent VRS will accelerate cost containment; Q3 domestic costs at €252m, flat qoq
- Q3 Group credit risk charges stood at 191bps, coming in 25bps lower
- qoq. Domestic and Group CoR at 198bps and 189bps respectively in
9M16
- SEE business PAT contribution reaches €79m in 9M16, up by 92% yoy
13 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Favorable NPE reduction trend is sustained, liquidity profile improves further
Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group
3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 Liquidity L/D ratio 89% 91% 92% 91% 96% ELA exposure (€ bn) 5.1 6.1 11.0 11.5 15.6
- /w Pillar exposure
(nominal)2 2.4 7.1 11.8 18.0 Profitability NIM (bps) 293 285 280 280 279 Cost / Core income 57% 56% 57% 64% 64% Asset quality NPE ratio 44.2% 45.8% 47.3% 46.8% 45.1% NPE coverage ratio 56.3% 54.3% 53.0% 52.8% 52.2% Cost of Risk (bps) 191 216 162 746 251 Capital CET1 phased-in 16.9%1 16.8%3 17.2%4 17.5%4 9.6% CET1 ratio CRD4 FL 16.3%1 16.2%3 16.7%4 16.8%4 8.8% RWAs (€ bn) 40.21 40.53 40.44 40.34 60.7
1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment, 2. Pillar II zero as of July 2016 3. Pro-forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments and CoCos repayment 4. Pro forma for Astir Palace, NBGI divestments, Finansbank sale and CoCos repayment
Highlights
Further ELA reduction to just €4.5b currently
- ELA has been slashed by an impressive €13b since the imposition of capital controls,
reaching €4.5b in November
- Full P&L impact of Pillar II and III exposure elimination (July 2016) on profitability to apply
from 4Q16 onwards; total annualized fee saving of €200m vs FY.15 fee charge
- L:D ratio drops further to 89% in Greece reflecting favorable deposit trends in Q3 (+€0.3b)
as well as deleveraging of the balance sheet Domestic NPE stock reduction continues unabated in Q3, -€1.0b qoq
- The pace of NPE reduction continues (-€1.0bn qoq), resulting in an impressive ytd
reduction of €1.9b, reflecting favorable curing trends and write offs
- FNPEs less than 30dpd at €3.3b, are a large potential pool for future curing
- 90dpd retail formation remained negative for yet another quarter (-€92m) reflecting
improving gross formation as the pace of restructurings slowed in Q3
- On the corporate side, formation reached €280m, reflecting a handful of large corporate
exposure re-defaults
- Domestic credit charges CoR at 198bps in 9M16; NPE and NPL coverage at an industry
leading 57% and 75% respectively CET 1 pro forma1 ratio at 16.9%
- CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 16.3%1, excluding CoCos
- Group RWAs at 40.2b1 of which €34.4b in Greece (phased in)
- Capital adequacy to be enhanced materially by implementation of the RP
Liquidity
3
15 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Eurosystem funding (€ b)
- 1. Latest available data
- 2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds
ELA has been reduced by €13b since June 2015 to just €4.5b currently
Liquidity
Peer group analysis1: liquidity position (Group)
14.2 9.8 10.0 10.1 12.5 11.8 8.9 7.5 6.8 13.9 17.6 15.6 11.5 11.0 6.1 5.1 4.5 14.2 23.6 27.6 25.6 24.0 22.8 14.9 12.6 11.3
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Nov '16
4.5 12.5 15.4 13.1 NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 6% 24% 22% ELA / Assets2 L:D ratio 89% 117% 144% 18% 123% ELA exposure (€ b) ELA ECB €4.8b in
- utstanding
interbank repos
16 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
- 2.2
- 4.8
- 3.6
0.3 0.8
- 0.9
0.0 0.3
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Deposit evolution by geography (€ b)
Domestic private deposit inflows +€0.3b in Q3, L:D ratio at 89%
Liquidity
Greek deposit flows per quarter (€ b)
- €10.6 b
+€0.5 b 94% 90% 91% 91% 89% 96% 91% 92% 104% 97% 96% 92% 91% 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Group Greece SEE & Other Peers’ average domestic L:D ratio: 135%
Profitability
4
18 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Group Core PPI decomposition by region (€ m)
9M16 domestic Core PPI of €0.60b, +22% yoy; Q3 core operating margin at 54bps vs 49bps in 9M16
Profitability
Domestic Core PPI margin (bps)
139 153 189 207 205 494 601 41 37 42 40 40 126 122 180 190 231 247 245 620 723 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 9M15 9M16 GRE SEE & Other +21.6% +16.6% YoY 185 247 255 255
- 1,071
- 198
- 231
- 201
9M15 9M16 1 2Q16 3Q16 49 24 54 Core PPI margin CoR Core operating margin
19 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Domestic NII quarterly evolution (€ m) Domestic NII breakdown Group fees & insurance income (€ m)
- 1. Excl. Pillar fee charges
Domestic NII picks up qoq on the back of improving funding costs, offsetting deleveraging impact
Profitability
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Loans 434 411 395 384 378 Deposits
- 80
- 69
- 55
- 46
- 44
Bonds 85 86 85 83 79 Eurosystem & wholesale
- 58
- 49
- 40
- 36
- 18
Subs & other 10 13 11 14 7 Total 389 392 396 400 403 400
- 6
+2 +18
- 4
- 7
403
2Q16 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem & wholesale ΔSecurities Subs & other 3Q16
Negatively affected by €7m due to repayment of the sub-debt extended to Finansbank Excludes +€9m funding cost savings qoq from reduced Pillar II exposure accounted for in fees 42 50 50 52 50 21 29 18 23 12 23 24 23 24 23 86 103 91 99 85 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Greece1 SEE & Other Insurance 0.42% 0.50% 0.44% 0.47% 0.41% Fees1/Assets
- 53
- 54
- 30
- 15
- 6
Pillar 2 cost
20 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Greek deposit yields (bps)
25 24 24 20 20 185 163 132 113 103 90 77 62 51 47 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Time deposit yields drop by another 10bps qoq, total deposit cost at 47bps
Profitability
Greek lending yields (bps)
Time Total New production yield at 69 bps Core 262 264 261 258 256 934 956 953 947 947 673 658 672 650 648 421 420 421 417 414 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
21 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
65% 63% 56% 55% 55% 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Domestic OpEx evolution (€ m) Group OpEx by category (€ m)
Domestic 9M16 costs down by 3% yoy
Profitability
Headcount evolution (‘000) Domestic cost-to-core income evolution
Greece Group 9M16 9M15 yoy 9M16 9M15 yoy Personnel 490 497
- 1.4%
594 598
- 0.7%
G&As 185 198
- 6.9%
265 279
- 4.9%
Depreciation 72 73
- 0.3%
88 90
- 2.0%
Total 747 768
- 2.7%
947 966
- 2.0%
163 168 161 163 166 96 94 82 88 86 259 262 243 251 252 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 15.0 12.2 12.0 12.3 10.1 7.9 7.8 7.7 25.1 20.1 19.8 20.1 FY09 1 FY14 FY15 3Q16 G&A &
- ther
Staff SEE & Other Greece
- /w:
Astir: 0.5k Insurance: 0.8k
22 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Operating profit evolution (€ m)
SEE contributes €79m in Group 9m PAT, +92% yoy
Profitability
SEE headline figures
P&L items (€ m) 3Q16 2Q16 qoq 9M16 9M15 yoy NII 82 83
- 1.2%
247 250
- 1.2%
Core income 106 107
- 1.2%
321 324
- 0.8%
OpEx (67) (67)
- 1.3%
(200) (198) 0.6% PPI 52 50 +3.6% 157 132 19.2% Provisions (20) (20)
- 1.5%
(64) (79) -18.7% Operating profit 32 30 +5.0% 93 53 75.3% Net profit after min. 27 25 +7.2% 79 41 92.2% 42 40 55 50 52
- 23
- 68
- 24
- 20
- 20
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Pre-provision income Provisions 18
- 28
31 30 32 Operating profit Selective ratios 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 Liquidity L/D ratio 91% 92% 96% 97% 104% Profitability NIM (bps) 345 355 361 355 356 Cost / Core income 63% 63% 61% 66% 62% Asset quality 90dpd ratio 26.3% 26.5% 27.0% 26.8% 28.3% 90dpd coverage ratio 60.1% 59.1% 58.3% 57.4% 56.3% Cost of Risk (bps) 136 133 155 438 147
Asset quality
5
24 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Remaining NPE reduction to 2019 at €6.5b (€ b) NPE operational targets are feasible Parent NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) (€ b)
21.5
- 1.9
- 6.5
13.1 FY15 Already achieved Remaining FY19
On track to deliver NPE/NPL operational targets
Asset quality
- Operational targets submitted to the SSM call for a reduction of
NPLs and NPEs by €7.4b and €8.5b corresponding to a reduction of c.50% and 40% respectively
- Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NBG will have reduced its
NPL and NPE ratios by ca.15ppts, with NPE coverage around the 50% mark
- NBG has already reduced NPEs by €1.9b ytd relative to a targeted
reduction throughout the forecast period of €8.5b 15.2 15.3 15.0 14.9 7.7 6.4 0.0 6.2
- 0.9
5.6
- 1.0
4.7
- 6.5
5.4 21.5 21.5 20.6 19.6 13.1 FY15 1 1Q16 2 2Q16 3 3Q16 4 FY19
- 8.5
NPLs NPEs NPE reduction target Target: -8.5
25 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment
- 1. Bank level
€3.3b of FNPEs less than 30dpd constitute prime candidates for curing
Asset quality
Domestic forborne stock breakdown (€ bn) Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)
Cash coverage Cash coverage 13% 53% 48% 26% 26% LLAs/ Gross loans 15.3 3.3 0.7 0.8 20.1 90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs 42% 95% 76% 98% 75% 73% 31% 55% 63% 27% 35% 34% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group 32% 82% 67% 65% 57% 56% 41% 64% 71% 40% 46% 44% Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group FNPE<30 dpd 3.3 FNPE 31-90dpd 0.7 FNPE >90dpd 3.1 FPE 2.8
9.9
Collateral coverage1 78% 8% 51% 53% 54% SEE & other: 90dpd ratio: 26% Coverage: 60% SEE & other: NPE ratio: 31% Coverage: 51%
26 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Domestic 90dpd restructuring flows (€ m) Peer Group analysis3: asset quality (Group) Domestic 90dpd formation and provisions
- 1. CoR (bps) adjusted for AQR charges, calculated on net loans
- 2. Texas Ratio: (NPLs-Provisions)/TBV
- 3. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
Domestic CoR drops by 30bps qoq to 201bps over net loans; Group CoR at 191bps
Asset quality
406 86 126 2 188 232 671 134 188 162 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
90dpd flows (€ m) Provisions (€ m)
271 329 164 231 201 CoR1 (bps) Includes AQR 510 812 609 381 358 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 73% 68% 69% 66% 34% 39% 38% 35% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 0.7x 1.1x 0.9x 1.1x Coverage ratio 90dpd ratio Texas ratio2 6.9 7.5 8.5 5.4 TBV (€ b) Unprovided NPLs (€ b) 4.4 8.2 7.3 6.1
27 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Mortgages (€ m)
Asset quality
Domestic retail formation remains negative, new corporate NPLs already within the NPE perimeter
Consumer (€ m)
Total domestic 90dpd formation (€ m)
SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)
122
- 133
- 117
- 70
- 32
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
76
- 22
- 26
- 19
- 8
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
35
- 3
10
- 13
- 52
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
173 246 260 106 280
3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
406 86 126 2 188 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16
Capital
6
29 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
16.8% 16.9% 16.3% 2Q16 3Q16 CRD 4 fully loaded
Peer Group analysis2: CET1 Capital ratios3 Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation (€ bn) CET 1 ratio
7.1 6.8 2.0
- 0.1
0.2
- 0.3
2.0 9.1 8.8 Ordinary equity GW & intangibles Minority interest Other CET1
- 1. Pro-forma for Astir Palace and CoCos repayment
- 2. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
- 3. Excl. CoCos and State prefs.
CET1 ratio at 16.9%1, or 16.3% on a fully loaded basis
Capital
RWAs (€ bn) 16.3% 12.8% 16.2% 13.8% 16.9% 13.7% 16.6% 14.9% NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 CoCos Excluding CoCos (+500bps) TBV: €6.9bn Phased-in Fully loaded 40.5 40.2 CET1: €6.8bn 40.2 CET1: €6.6bn CET1: €6.8bn DTC: €4.9b
Macro
7
31 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q)
Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, Bank of Greece
Unemployment rate and employment growth
+0.5% s.a. q-o-q, .& +1.5% y-o-y in Q3:16
Real estate prices (y-o-y)
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1
1
- 10
- 8
- 6
- 4
- 2
2 Q3:2011 Q1:2012 Q3:2012 Q1:2013 Q3:2013 Q1:2014 Q3:2014 Q1:2015 Q3:2015 Q1:2016 Q3:2016
GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis)
% 5 10 15 20 25
- 10
- 6
- 2
2 6 Aug-08 Apr-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Apr-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Apr-13 Dec-13 Aug-14 Apr-15 Dec-15 Aug-16
Employment growth (left axis) Unemployment rate (right axis)
% y-o-y
Greece – Gov. arrears clearance and public investment
- 1,5%
- 16
- 12
- 8
- 4
4
- 16
- 12
- 8
- 4
4 H2:2008 H1:2009 H2:2009 H1:2010 H2:2010 H1:2011 H2:2011 H1:2012 H2:2012 H1:2013 H2:2013 H1:2014 H2:2014 H1:2015 H2:2015 H1:2016 Q3:2016
Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y) House prices (total, y-o-y)
y-o-y 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 Q1:2016 Q2:2016 Q3:2016 Q4:2016 Q1:2017 Q2:2017
Payments for arrears clearance (incl. tax refunds, % GDP) Public investment budget expenditure (% GDP)
as % of GDP
forecasts
The Greek economy comes out of recession in Q3:2016, supported by official funding; labor market conditions improve; and the decline in property prices abates
32 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Current account balance - (% GDP) Manufacturing production and capacity utilization Goods and services exports (y-o-y)
Source: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, EU Commission
An increase in exports provides a boost to healthy corporate activity and business sentiment
60 65 70 75
- 15
- 10
- 5
5 10 15 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16
Capacity utilization (right axis) Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)
% index
- 85
- 75
- 65
- 55
- 45
- 35
- 25
- 15
- 5
5
- 50
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
10 20 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16
Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis) Retail (left axis) Construction (right axis)
Greece - Business confidence indicators
- 3,0
- 2,5
- 2,0
- 1,5
- 1,0
- 0,5
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5
- 3,0
- 2,5
- 2,0
- 1,5
- 1,0
- 0,5
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2015 2016
cumulative as % GDP surplus deficit
- 20
- 10
10 20
- 60
- 45
- 30
- 15
15 30 45 60 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16
Transportation (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis) Other services (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis) Tourism receipts (y-o-y, 12m m.a., right axis) Exports of goods (excl. oil, y-o-y, 3m m.a., right axis) Capital controls
33 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Source: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, EU Commission, IMF, Bloomberg,
- Gen. Government: revenue and primary expenditure
- 9
- 7
- 5
- 3
- 1
1 3
- 9
- 7
- 5
- 3
- 1
1 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% GDP surplus deficit excluding SMP & ANFA revenue
GDP growth forecasts (y-o-y change) State budget primary balance (% GDP) 10-year government bond spreads over bund
5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 mid Nov-16 Greece Portugal Italy % 1st Review completion, ECB waiver reinstatement, Brexit 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16
- Gen. Government net revenue
- Gen. Government primary expenditure
as % of GDP, 12m m.a.
- 0,1
2,7 3,1 2,8 2,4
- 9
- 7
- 5
- 3
- 1
1 3 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a.) GDP growth forecasts (IMF & EU Commission average)
% forecasts
The fiscal adjustment remains credible, and a swift completion of the 2nd review of the program
- - along with the phasing-in of short-term debt relief measures -- will support the recovery
Appendix
8
35 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Balance Sheet | Group
Group Balance Sheet & P&L
P&L | Group
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 Cash & Reserves 1 998 1 974 1 873 2 208 1 982 Interbank placements 2 881 2 909 2 753 2 799 2 788 Securities 23 106 24 187 25 337 24 852 22 233 Loans (Gross) 50 430 51 133 51 512 51 969 52 477 Provisions (12 540) (12 712) (12 909) (12 843) (12 357) Goodwill & intangibles 140 143 142 147 259 Tangible assets 1 306 1 311 1 315 1 325 1 384 DTA 5 081 5 087 5 093 5 096 5 104 Other assets 9 137 9 143 8 686 7 912 8 089 Assets held for sale 203 742 27 941 27 767 28 580 Total assets 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538 Interbank liabilities 17 799 20 278 25 003 25 166 26 948 Due to customers 42 567 42 184 42 047 42 959 41 890 Debt securities 1 517 1 276 1 279 1 252 1 960 Other liabilities 10 041 10 113 9 621 8 387 8 836 Hybrids
- 83
Liabilities held for sale 11 301 23 931 23 643 23 555 Minorities 708 701 735 725 724 Equity 9 099 9 064 9 128 9 100 6 543 Total liabilities and equity 81 742 83 916 111 743 111 232 110 538
Appendix
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 NII 485 482 479 474 472 Net fees 67 61 43 21 13 Insurance income 12 23 18 29 21 Core Income 563 567 540 524 506 Trading & other income (13) (43) (6) 108 (178) Income 551 524 534 632 328 Operating Expenses (318) (319) (309) (333) (325) Core Pre-Provision Income 245 247 231 190 180 Pre-Provision Income 232 205 225 298 3 Provisions (182) (208) (158) (739) (256) Operating Profit 51 (3) 67 (441) (253) Other impairments (20) (12) (34) (247) (51) PBT 31 (15) 33 (688) (304) Taxes (8) (9) (7) (62) 518 PAT (cont. ops) 23 (23) 26 (750) 214 PAT (discount. ops)
- (3 028)
71 (1 160) (595) Minorities (7) (10) (10) (2) (12) Other one-offs
- (138)
(9) Attributable PAT 16 (3 062) 87 (2 050) (401)
Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income in previous periods and relates mainly to foreign currency translation differences from the translation of Finansbank’s assets and liabilities in Euro, in accordance with IFRS. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods, therefore has no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in Q2.16
36 Corporate Presentation – November 2016
Greece
Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other
Appendix
SEE & Other
€ m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 NII 403 400 396 392 389 Net fees 44 37 20 (3) (10) Insurance income 10 22 16 26 19 Core Income 457 459 432 415 398 Trading & other income (25) (52) (19) 105 (178) Income 432 407 413 520 219 Operating Expenses (252) (252) (243) (262) (259) Core Pre-Provision Income 205 207 189 153 139 Pre-Provision Income 181 155 170 258 (39) Provisions (162) (188) (134) (671) (232) Operating Profit 19 (33) 35 (413) (271) Other impairments (20) (10) (34) (242) (51) PBT (1) (44) 2 (655) (322) Taxes (4) (5) (3) (62) 521 PAT (5) (49) (1) (717) 199 € m 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 NII 82 83 83 82 83 Net fees 23 24 23 24 23 Insurance income 1 1 2 3 2 Core Income 106 107 108 109 108 Trading & other income 13 10 13 3 1 Income 118 118 121 112 109 Operating Expenses (67) (67) (66) (72) (67) Core Pre-Provision Income 40 40 42 37 41 Pre-Provision Income 52 50 55 40 42 Provisions (20) (20) (24) (68) (23) Operating Profit 32 30 31 (28) 18 Other impairments (1) (1) (0) (5) (1) PBT 31 29 31 (33) 18 Taxes (4) (3) (4) (0) (2) PAT 28 26 27 (33) 15
IR contact details
Greg Papagrigoris Head of IR +30210 334 2310 papagrigoris.gr@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr Anthony Kouleimanis Investor Relations +30210 334 3037 akouleimanis@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr
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Maria Kanellopoulou Investor Relations +30210 334 1537 mkanellopoulou@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr Ilias Katsikalis Investor Relations +30210 334 1401 katsikalis.ilias@nbg.gr ir@nbg.gr