TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
March 2020
Corporate Presentation
Corporate Presentation March 2020 TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF Forward - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Corporate Presentation March 2020 TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF Forward Looking Statements This document includes certain statements that constitute forwardlooking statements and forward -looking information within the meaning of
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
March 2020
Corporate Presentation
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
This document includes certain statements that constitute “forward‐looking statements” and “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws (collectively, “forward‐looking statements”). Forward-looking statements include statements regarding Altius Minerals Corporation’s (“Altius”) intent, or the beliefs or current expectations of Altius’ officers and directors. Such forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “project”, “intend”, “expect”, “may”, “will”, “plan”, “should”, “would”, “contemplate”, “possible”, “attempts”, “seeks” and similar expressions. Forward‐looking statements may relate to future outlook and anticipated events or results. By their very nature, forward‐looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and the risk that predictions and other forward‐looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Do not unduly rely on forward‐looking statements, as a number of important factors, many of which are beyond Altius’ control, could cause actual results to differ materially from the estimates and intentions expressed in such forward‐looking statements. Forward‐looking statements speak only as of the date those statements are made. Except as required by applicable law, Altius does not assume any obligation to update, or to publicly announce the results of any change to, any forward‐looking statement contained herein to reflect actual results, future events or developments, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting the forward‐looking statements.
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Long-Term, Counter-Cyclical Discipline
ROYALTY REVENUE GROWING FAST ON VOLUME
GROWTH AND IMPROVED PRICES
COMMODITIES SUPERCYCLE COMMODITIES SUPERCYCLE
ENDS
$6M $28M $33M $47M $67M
$78M
IPO & INITIAL YEARS
Royalty Acquisition Altius Interpretation
Position Royalty Revenue
2002 – 2011 1997 – 2001 2012 – 2015 2016 – Present
Cash Build Acquisitions Organic Growth
trades projects for royalties and partner equity – protecting Altius capital structure
created from PG business during super-cycle
precious metal commodities
years until commodity prices and sentiment declined
mining sector and motivated asset sales
accompanying EBITDA and Cash Flow margins
extensions while also innovating new renewable royalty business
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
$0.22 $0.88 $0.83 $1.08 $1.56 $1.86 $1.79- $1.91
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 2018 2019 2020 Guidance
EBITDA Per Share Royalty Revenue Per Share
$0.71 $0.64 $0.80 $1.24 $1.49 $1.43- $1.53
FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 2018 2019 2020 Guidance
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$6M $28M $33M $47M $67M $78M $75M
FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 2018 2019 2020 Guidance
Royalty Revenue Per share growth focus
80% EBITDA Margin 56% OCF Margin
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
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Strong operating margins and long resource lives (85 years revenue weighted average) motivating multiple new build and expansion investments by operators = free royalty growth
Organic (Free) Mine Royalty Growth
New renewable energy royalty business growing fast as electricity generation transition accelerates and sector begins to recognize benefits of royalty finance offering
Renewable Royalty Business Gaining Momentum
Discovery
Renewable Development Portfolio 2.5 GW Portfolio Rocanville Cory Allan Vanscoy Esterhazy Completed Potash Expansions New Mines in Construction Voisey’s Underground (Ni-Co-Cu) Gunnison (Copper)
Building Ramping Up Financing and Development
Chapada Expansion (Cu)
Resource Stage Expansion Study
Expansion of Existing Assets New Build Studies 168,000 metres of drilling in 2020 60+ Exploration Stage Royalties 21 GW Development Portfolio
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Proven Equity/Royalty Investment Strategy Allows Creation of New Pipeline Royalties at Negative Cost and Provides Cash for 3rd Party Royalty Acquisitions
Projects
Converted to new royalties and junior equities since 2016 market bottom Positive cash generation in 2019
Junior Equity Portfolio Growth
PG Net Monetizations
Gunnison starting up to mark first PG created royalty to reach production stage 6 $22M $33M $54M
$54M
$11M
$17M
April 2016 April 2017 December 2018 December 2019
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison
EV Battery $ Cost / kWh $ Cost Parity with Internal Combustion Engine
Electrification trends (e.g. transportation about to shift to EV) will cause demand for electricity to grow and gain market share relative to other sources of consumer energy such as fossil fuels Lower costs, higher efficiencies and underlying demand growth coupled with a surge in ESG investment mandates creating a massive tailwind for renewable energy investments
Megatrends driving increased electricity demand: ESG Going Mainstream:
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Source: “Electrifying Insights: How Automakers can Drive Electrified Vehicle Sales and Profitability,” McKinsey – January 2017 , Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis – Version 13.0 (November 2019), US SIF Foundation
Within the electricity sector, renewable energy has become the cheapest form of new generation
Past the tipping point:
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
required for full royalty vesting threshold - with remainder expected throughout 2020
expected to begin in Q2 2021
begin in Q4 2021
2021
Source Company Reports
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
ARR’s Royalty Finance Model Attracts Second Major Developer
US$35MM+ Investment in Apex Clean Energy
Apex is one of the largest renewable energy developers in the U.S. and has commercialized over 5 gigawatt (GW) of clean energy projects since inception in 2009. Its current portfolio includes approximately 21 GW (12.5 GW wind, 8.5 GW solar)
prior to construction. Overview
Energy (“Apex”)
allowing Apex to ultimately bring more projects to market
threshold is met.
Royalty Contract Details
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Development Portfolio
Projects Transacted in 2019
Under Construction
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Source Company Reports
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Investment Grade Operators Low Jurisdictional Risk
Canada, USA and Brazil
Royalty vs. Stream Dominated
Copper 37% Battery Metals (Ni-Li-Co) 2% Potash 19% Electricity Generation (Coal) 14% Premium Iron Ore 20% Steel Making Coal 4% Zinc 3%
2019 Commodity Revenue
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Coal to Renewables Fossil Fuel to Clean Energy Conversion Cu, Co, Ni, Li Clean Iron Ore Products Lower Emission Steel Making Soil Quality/Agricultural Yield Improvements Transportation Electrification Potash
Macro-Trend Altius Royalty Exposure
Subsidiary Altius Renewable Royalties Corp. (“ARR”) reinvesting royalty based capital to advance more than 23 GW of potential new renewable energy projects – as our 5 GW coal generation exposure phases out to zero Altius’s potash fertilizer royalties relate to a portfolio of top-tier Canadian mines that are ramping up into pre-built capacity expansions as sustainable food production needs increase Copper, which benefits more than any other metal from EV and renewable transitions, is Altius’s largest royalty exposure. Royalty exposure to battery metals - Nickel, Cobalt and Lithium is growing Royalty from IOC relates to high iron / low impurity concentrates and pellets that require less metallurgical coal usage in steel plants
Sector leading fundamental business growth from assets that enable the world to meet its sustainability objectives
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Mine lives calculated based on current mineral inventory and 2018 throughput. Coal asset lives denote the expected plant closure and not based on
85+ Year Revenue Weighted Life
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Notes
costs do not include the effects of copper stream agreements which will be a component of the copper revenue and will impact realized revenue per pound.
amortization expense and inventory and other adjustments divided by the production tonnes for the period. For Mosaic, we used the 2019 four quarter average actuals cash costs of production (excluding brine) – MOP ($/tonne)
Operator Mine Commodity Benchmark Spot Price Operating Margin Lundin Chapada Copper $2.56 112% Nutrien All Operations Potash $255 211% Mosaic All Operations Potash $255 245% Vale Voisey's Bay Nickel $5.96 106% Rio Tinto IOC Fe Concentrate $91 102% Rio Tinto IOC Fe Pellet $132 103% Excelsior Gunnison Copper $2.56 194% Hudbay Manitoba Operations Copper $2.56 701%
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
Acquisition Acquisition Date Purchase Price Realized After-Tax Unlevered Cashflow Net Asset Value(5%) Consensus Realized Cashflow + NAV vs. Purchase Price Voisey's Bay 2003 $13.6 million $25.1 million $18.2 million 318% Chapada Stream 2016 $76.8 million $40.2 million $124.0 million 214% Potash Portfolio 2014 & 2018 $138.2 million $42.5 million $226.9 million 195% IOC 2017 & 2019 $69.1 million $48.9 million $106.1 million 224% Callinan Merger 2015 $70.9 million $23.0 million $71.7 million 133% Coal Portfolio 2014 $191.7 million $67.9 million $67.1 million 70% $560.3 million $247.5 million $614.0 million 154%
Note 1. Purchase price is based on cash purchase price in CAD. For the acquisition of Callinan Royalties in 2015, the purchase price excludes cash and consideration allocated to non- royalty related assets. (see Note 9, 2016 Annual Financial Statements), and also includes the cost to exercise the option increasing the Gunnison Gross Sales Royalty (exercised in 2018).. The main producing royalty in Callinan is 777 with the Gunnison development stage royalty also part of that acquisition. 2. After tax unlevered cash flow is the cumulative (since acquisition) reported revenue up to December 31, 2019 after accounting for 27% corporate income tax. For LIORC, the effective tax rate is adjusted to zero to reflect the actual tax rate on inter-corporate dividends. For the Chapada copper stream, reported revenue is net of a 30% deduction to reflect the cost of purchasing copper, as per the contract. The effective tax rate on Chapada is 0% until the initial deposit of US$60 million is fully recovered. Voisey’s Bay royalty revenues are shown net of the 20% Newfoundland & Labrador royalty tax. 3. Consensus NAV by asset based on analysts reports from July - September 2019. The Callinan NAV consensus is based on NAV ascribed to 777 and to Gunnison.
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF Dividends $3M Dividends $5M Dividends $7M Dividends $7M Dividends $8M Share buy back $2M Share buy back $2M Share buy back… Share buy back $9M
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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TSX: ALS | OTCQX: ATUSF Issued Common Shares
41.8 million
Fairfax Preferred Securities
10.0 million ($100 mm)
Basic Market Capitalization
$353 million
Annual Dividend
$0.20 per share
Outstanding Debt
$109 million
Cash and Public Equity Holdings†
$169 million
Available Under Credit Revolver†
$85 million
4.9x 1.3x 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Net Debt to EBITDA x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 2014
Leverage Ratio Returns of Capital
Research Coverage
Richard Gray Craig Hutchison Brian MacArthur Carey MacRury Jacques Wortman Orest Wowkodaw
Capital table values, return of capital and net debt to EBITDA numbers as of Dec 31 2019 except for market cap as of Mar 10, 2020. Cash and public equity holdings includes $22 million cash + $93 million LIORC equity value + $54.1 million project generation equity values
TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF 17 0.69x 0.84x 1.12x 1.64x 1.76x 2.19x
ALS OR SSL WPM RGLD FNV
8.7x 14.9x 15.2x 17.0x 18.9x 25.4x
ALS SSL OR RGLD WPM FNV
9.2x 14.4x 15.8x 19.4x 19.4x 27.5x
ALS OR SSL WPM RGLD FNV
EV/EBITDA (2020E) P/CF (2020E) P/NAV
Source S&P Capital IQ, Company Reports. March 11, 2020
Potential Re-rate Catalysts
leverage and increasing returns of capital
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TSX:ALS | OTCQX:ATUSF
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PRODUCING ROYALTIES DEVELOPMENT ROYALTIES PROJECT GENERATION PROJECT RENEWABLE ENERGY PORTFOLIO
CONTACT INFORMATION
Flora Wood Director, Investor Relations Phone: (416)346-9020 Email: Flora@altiusminerals.com