zargon.ca
Corporate Presentation
July 25, 2016
Corporate Presentation July 25, 2016 Forward Looking-Advisory - - PDF document
zargon.ca Corporate Presentation July 25, 2016 Forward Looking-Advisory Forward-Looking Statements - This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at July 25, 2016, and contains forward-looking statements.
July 25, 2016
Forward-Looking Statements - This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at July 25, 2016, and contains forward-looking
"should", "plan", "intend", "believe" and similar expressions (including the negatives thereof). In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking information as to Zargon’s corporate strategy and business plans, Zargon’s oil exploration project inventory and development plans, Zargon’s dividend policy and the amount of future dividends, future commodity prices, Zargon’s expectation for uses of funds from financing, Zargon’s capital expenditure program and the allocation and the sources of funding thereof, Zargon’s cash flow and dividend model and the assumptions contained therein and the results there from, anticipated payout rates, 2016 and beyond production and other guidance and the assumptions contained therein, estimated tax pools, Zargon’s reserve estimates, Zargon’s hedging policies, Zargon’s drilling, development and exploitation plans and projects and the results there from and Zargon’s ASP project plans 2016 and beyond, strategic alternatives review process, the source of funding for our 2016 and beyond capital program including ASP, capital expenditures, costs and the results therefrom. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond our control, including such as those relating to results of operations and financial condition, general economic conditions, industry conditions, changes in regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices, escalation of operating and capital costs, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Risks are described in more detail in our Annual Information Form, which is available on our
You are cautioned that the assumptions, including, among other things, future oil and natural gas prices; future capital expenditure levels; future production levels; future exchange rates; the cost of developing and expanding our assets; our ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities; our ability to market our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers; the impact of increasing competition; our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; and our ability to add production and reserves through our development and acquisition activities used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking
can give no assurance that any of the events anticipated will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what benefits we will derive from them. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Our policy for updating forward-looking statements is that Zargon disclaims, except as required by law, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Barrels of Oil Equivalent - Natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent (“Boe”) using six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In certain circumstances, natural gas liquid volumes have been converted to a thousand cubic feet equivalent (“Mcfe”) on the basis of one barrel of natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of gas. Boes and Mcfes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion ratio on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Estimated reserve values disclosed in this presentation do not represent fair market value. Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place (“DPIIP”) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
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Assets Sold July 25, 2016 Release
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Saskatchewan assets for cash consideration of
Remaining Assets Balance Sheet
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million following the transaction:
5 Oil Exploitation Focus
remaining high-graded operated oil reservoirs are characterized by significant oil-in-place, low recovery factors and low oil production declines
Low Decline Oil Production
reservoir pressure support from waterfloods or natural aquifers
followed by stable rates for a few quarters
is resumed followed by the implementation of a modified phase 2 scheme
Oil Exploitation Opportunities
parameters of 63 Mbbl oil reserves, 48 bbl/d initial rate and $0.92 MM all-in costs
Control of Properties & Key Infrastructure
Little Bow ASP Project
Polymer only projects seeking a 10 percent incremental oil recovery on over 80 million barrels of working interest oil-in-place.
Other Corporate Attributes
non capital losses
Zargon offers a variety of attractive oil exploitation opportunities ranging from horizontal exploitation infill drills to a long term Southern Alberta tertiary recovery project
Capitalization(1) Asset Profile Share Price (07/22/16) $0.455 Last Quarter Production (Q1 2016) Gas (MMcf/d) % Gas Liquids (bbl/d) % Liquids Total (boe/d) % of Production Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.5 Market Capitalization $14 North Dakota 0.00 0% 395 100% 395 13% Net Debt(2) $124 Alberta Plains (excl. ASP) 3.36 28% 1,452 72% 2,012 68% Option Proceeds ‐ Little Bow ‐ ASP 0.34 10% 479 90% 535 18% Entity Value $138 LQ Daily Production 3.70 21% 2,326 79% 2,942 100% 52‐Week High $3.59 52‐Week Low $0.35 Net Debt Summary(2) Credit Facility Drawn $65 Convertible Debentures (Due June 2017) $58 Working Capital Deficiency $1 Net Debt $124 Credit Facility Summary (3) Credit Facility $70 Drawn $65 Bank Line Available $5 % Drawn 93% Other Company Details Employees 26 Office 8 Field Headquarters Calgary, Alberta, Canada Primary Exchange Listing TSE Reserve Evaluators McDaniel (1) All numbers in $MMs except per share values. (2) Net debt calculated as long term debt plus working capital deficiency at March 31, 2016 (3) Credit facility at June 21, 2016 .
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Zargon has maintained a low production decline despite restricted capital programs
– 72% liquids-weighted (16 - 32º API) – Average WI ~72%, – ~98% operated
months (moderating)
– No drilling in 2015 due to capital allocation considerations – Drilling programs of prior years had been successful in managing overall production decline
Zargon’s asset base including:
– 14 booked infill and exploitation drilling
– Good 3D seismic coverage over key properties support an additional 11+ un- booked locations
Property Q1 2016 Production % Liquids API OOIP Recovery to Date Decline (boe/d) (%) ( º ) (MMbbl) (%) (%) McDaniel Additional Bellshill Lake 538 95% 27 16 32% 14% 5 1+ Killam 133 57% 28 19 1% 12% 5 3+ Taber 549 98% 16-24 27 15% 19% 3 5+ Little Bow (Conventional) 342 65% 21 82 25% 7% none tbd Alberta Other 450 18% 18-32 n.a n.a. 6% 1 2+ Total 2,012 71% 16-32 144+ 21% 16% 14 11+ Gross Undeveloped Locations
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oil Production Rate (bbl/day)
2016 Additions 2015 Additions 2014 Additions 2013 Additions 2012 Additions Base Production
Zargon Alberta ‐ Excluding Little Bow Phase 1 ASP Wells
Based on non‐ASP Alberta oil wells licensed to Zargon which were on production in 2016 (data to May 31, 2016)
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(Excluding Little Bow ASP)
Q4 2015 Contribution Decline Rate Base 73% 11.1% 2012 7% 12.5% 2013 8% 22.1% 2014 13% 27.9% 2015 n/a n/a
Operating Summary – Q1/2016 Production 1,452 bbl/d (2,012 boe/d) Oil Prod’n Decline Rate 14% / year Royalty Rate 3.1% Forecast Quarterly OPEX $3.25 million ($13 million in 2016) Reserves: McDaniel has recognized 14 gross (13.8 net) P+PUD locations and there is the potential of more than 11 additional locations McDaniel Reserves (2015 Year End) Liquids Total PV 10% (mbbl) (mBOE) ($MM) PDP 3,161 3,828 $ 50.6 TP 3,532 4,577 $ 56.1 P+PDP 4,183 5,104 $ 66.0 P+P * 5,214 6,873 $ 81.2 * includes new wells, tie-ins and reactivations
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Zargon’s Little Bow ASP project is showing good oil banking and production gains.
implemented in March 2014 in the heart of the Mannville “I” Pool
21º API)
responding very well and are anticipated to recover a full 12% incremental recovery of their 15 million bbl of oil-in-place
pore volume which compares to a design target
have been suspended. Model studies indicate that a one year suspension will not impact ultimate oil recovery
resumed in the high-graded central region area, which would be followed up with the AS injections in a modified (truncated) phase 2 area.
Little Bow ASP – Plan View
EOR in a mature Southern Alberta Waterflood
Alberta Crown July 11 Announcement Extends EOR royalty program to polymer projects
utilized for multiple ASP and Polymer only projects seeking a 10 percent incremental oil recovery on over 80 million barrels of working interest oil-in-place. 12 Zargon W.I. (%) W.I. OIIP (mmbbl)
Phase 1 (I Pool) North and Central 100 15 South 100 8 Future Potential Phases Remaining I/P Pools 97 16 U&W Unit (D8D/H9H Pools) 97 26 G Unit (B8B Pool) 95 10 MM Unit (E8E Pool) 100 5 C8C / X8X Pool 100 9 Total 89
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Q4 2015 Contribution Decline Rate Base 73% 12.9% 2012 6% 15.1% 2013 7% 22.6% 2014 13% 26.2% 2015 n/a n/a
Operating Summary – Q1/2016 Production 479 bbl/d (535 boe/d) Oil Prod’n Decline Rate n/a (increasing rates) Royalty Rate 2.9% Forecast Quarterly OPEX $1.25 million ($5 million in 2016) Significant OPEX improvements are anticipated: AS injections (incl. water softening) are now suspended. Streamlined facility operations and improved pumping designs. Based on these improvements, Q2 OPEX dropped to $1.15 million. McDaniel Phase 1 Reserves (2015 Year End) Liquids Total PV 10% (mbbl) (mBOE) ($MM) PDP 1.099 1,268 $ 23.9 TP 2,187 2,358 $ 32.9 P+PDP 1,462 1,688 $ 30.0 P+P 3,463 3,734 $ 72.6
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Dilute concentrations of chemicals (Alkali, Surfactant and Polymer) in water are injected into an existing oil pool to “scrub” out oil that waterflooding alone will not recover.
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1) ASP Injection
A blend of Alkali, Surfactant & Polymer mobilizes trapped oil
2) Polymer “Push”
Polymer displaces mobilized oil to producing wells
3) Terminal Waterflood
Return to waterflood to complete oil displacement
OIL BANK ASP POLYMER WATER
Husky Taber Mannville “B” ASP Husky Gull Lake ASP
project.
years of cost intensive AS injections are completed.
foresee many years of production growth followed by many years of free cash generating stable production for our Little Bow property.
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Taber Mannville “B” ASP Analog
ASP depletion state as Zargon’s Little Bow pool; ASP injection since 2006
Little Bow Mannville “I” and “P” Pools (Zargon) Taber Mannville “B” Pool (Husky)
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Taber Production History
May‐14 May‐13 May‐12 May‐11 May‐10 May‐09 May‐08 May‐07 May‐06
8% R F 10% R F 12% R F 14% R F 16% R F 8% R F 10% R F 12% R F 14% R F 16% R F
10 100 1,000 10,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000
Cumulative Oil Production (mbbl) Oil Production (bbl/d)
1 10 100 1,000
Oil Cut (%)
Data to December 2014
Oil Cut (%) First ASP Injection May, 2006
AER DPIIP = 43.1 mmbbl ASP Recovery Pool Rec* Percent mmbbl Mmbbl 8% 3.4 20.5 10% 4.3 21.3 12% 5.2 22.2 14% 6.0 23.0 16% 6.9 23.9 * Recovery where ASP flood returns to pre‐ASP levels
(Pro forma SE Saskatchewan Sale)
2,240 bbl/d
3.05 mmcf/d
2,750 boe/d; compares to H1 2016 rate of 2,882 boe/d.
$2.05/mcf Alberta average field price
8% Alberta, 24% North Dakota (includes state and severance taxes)
Production Costs & Capital Other Parameters
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$10.0 million (6 mos.) – $9.0 million Alberta, $1.0 million North Dakota
$0.3 million.
$ nil
$1.8 million chemical costs.
$0.6 million maintenance capital (minor exploitation and facility costs).
(Pro forma SE Sask. Asset Sale) No Drilling Case)
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WTI Pricing (US/bbl) FX (US/Cdn.) Field Pricing (Cdn./bbl) Annualized Field Cash Flow (million) Annualized Corporate Cash Flow (million) Annualized Free Cash Flow After All Capital (million) $35 $0.72 $30.61 $ 3.9 ($ 4.9) ($ 9.7) $45 $0.75 $42.00 $12.3 $ 3.5 ($ 1.3) $50 $0.765 $47.36 $16.2 $ 7.4 $ 2.6 $55 $0.78 $52.51 $20.0 $11.2 $ 6.4 $65 $0.81 $62.25 $27.2 $18.3 $13.5
10 20 30 30 40 50 60 70 Cash Flow ($ millions) WTI Oil Price ($US/bbl)
2016 Alberta Plains Cash Flow
Field Cash Flow Corporate Cash Flow
sensitive to oil prices.
flow down to less than $35 US/bbl WTI price and corporate cash flow down to less than $45 US/bbl WTI.
significant free cash flow that can be used to retire debt, reinstate/expand the Little Bow ASP floods or drill high-graded horizontal oil exploitation wells.
(Pro forma SE Sask. Asset Sale) No Drilling Case)
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WTI Pricing (US/bbl) Field Cash Flow (million) Five Times Field Cash Flow (million) Zargon Q1 2016 Net Debt (million) Attributed to Zargon Shares (million) Calculated Zargon Value (per share) $35 $ 3.9 $ 19.5 $ 35.0 $ nil $ nil $45 $12.3 $ 61.5 $ 35.0 $26.5 $0.87 $50 $16.2 $ 81.0 $ 35.0 $46.0 $1.51 $55 $20.0 $100.0 $ 35.0 $65.0 $2.13 $65 $27.2 $136.0 $ 35.0 $101.0 $3.31
investor’s exceptional torque (both
increases in oil prices.
five times property multiple suggests that significantly higher share prices may be realizable if/when WTI oil prices rebound to higher levels.
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 30 40 50 60 70
Share Price ($ per share)
WTI Oil Price ($US/bbl) Zargon Share Value - Five times Property Cash Flow
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Reserves Summary(1)
(1) McDaniel & Associates Consultants Limited reserve appraisal as of December 31, 2015 Incorporates sale of South East Sask. assets Crude Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids Total % Liquids B.Tax PV @ 10% Mbbl MMcf Mbbl Mbbl % $MM Proved Developed Producing 6,184 5,254 65 7,125 88% 93.7 Developed Non‐Producing 186 2,004 5 526 36% 4.2 UnDeveloped 1,547 292 1 1,596 97% 12.4 Total Proved 7,918 7,550 71 9,247 86% 110.2 Probable Additional 5,615 5,143 38 6,511 87% 70.7 Total Proved plus Probable 13,534 12,693 109 15,758 87% 180.9
0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
WTI Price ($US/bbl)
McDaniel WTI Price Forecast (December 31, 2015)
(Prior to SE Sask. Asset Sale Announcement)
Zargon Valuation with Discounted Debentures (July 22 pricing) Common Shares (30.5 million @$0.455 @ July 22, 2016) $ 13.9 million Debentures (0.575 million @$53 @ July 22, 2016) $ 30.5 million Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt (Est. @ June 30, 2016) $ 65.0 million Total Enterprise Value $ 109.4 million H1 2016 Production (4,093 boe/d est. – 85% oil/liquids) $26,700 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (10.44 mmboe – 90% oil/liquids) $10.48 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (13.08 mmboe – 89% oil/liquids) $ 8.36 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (13.60 mmboe – 90% oil/liquids) $ 8.04 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (20.90 mmboe – 89% oil/liquids) $ 5.23 per boe
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Zargon Valuation with Debentures at Face Value Common Shares (30.5 million @$0.455 @ July 22, 2016) $ 13.9 million Debentures (0.575 million @$100 face value) $ 57.5 million Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt (Est. @ June 30, 2016) $ 65.0 million Total Enterprise Value $ 136.4 million H1 2016 Production (4,093 boe/d est. – 85% oil/liquids) $33,300 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (10.44 mmboe – 90% oil/liquids) $13.06 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (13.08 mmboe – 89% oil/liquids) $10.43 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (13.60 mmboe – 90% oil/liquids) $10.03 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (20.90 mmboe – 89% oil/liquids) $ 6.53 per boe
were valued at low levels that could be highly accretive to potential acquirers on both a production or reserves basis.
(Incorporating the SE Sask. Asset Sale Announcement)
Zargon Valuation with Discounted Debentures (July 22 pricing) Common Shares (30.5 million @$0.455 @ July 22, 2016) $ 13.9 million Debentures (0.575 million @$53 @ July 22, 2016) $ 30.5 million Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt (Est. @ June 30, 2016) ($22.5 million) Total Enterprise Value $ 21.9 million H1 2016 Production (2,882 boe/d est. – 80% oil/liquids) $7,600 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (7.11 mmboe – 87% oil/liquids) $ 3.08 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.23 mmboe – 86% oil/liquids) $ 2.37 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2PDP (9.32 mmboe – 87% oil/liquids) $ 2.35 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (15.74 mmboe – 86% oil/liquids) $ 1.39 per boe
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Zargon Valuation with Debentures at Face Value Common Shares (30.5 million @$0.455 @ July 22, 2016) $ 13.9 million Debentures (0.575 million @$100 face value) $ 57.5 million Add Net Working Capital & Bank Debt (Est. @ June 30, 2016) ($22.5 million) Total Enterprise Value $ 48.9 million H1 2016 Production (2,882 boe/d est. – 80% oil/liquids) $17,000 per boe/d 2015 YE Reserves PDP (7.11 mmboe – 87% oil/liquids) $ 6.88 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.23 mmboe – 86% oil/liquids) $ 5.30 per boe 2015 YE Reserves TP (9.32 mmboe – 87% oil/liquids) $ 5.25 per boe 2015 YE Reserves 2P (15.74 mmboe – 86% oil/liquids) $ 3.11 per boe
assets continue to be valued at low levels that could be highly accretive to potential acquirers on both a production or reserves basis.
hold significant potential that could be accelerated by a better capitalized entity.
Williston Basin Saskatchewan assets.
Strategic Process Ongoing Deep Discount to NAV
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developed producing) net asset value when evaluated at prices above current strip.
the Little Bow ASP project.
financial and oil exploitation leverage) to future increases in oil prices.
July 25, 2016