zargon.ca
Corporate Presentation
August 13, 2015
Corporate Presentation August 13, 2015 Forward Looking-Advisory - - PDF document
zargon.ca Corporate Presentation August 13, 2015 Forward Looking-Advisory Forward-Looking Statements - This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at August 13, 2015, and contains forward- looking
August 13, 2015
Forward-Looking Statements - This presentation offers our assessment of Zargon's future plans and operations as at August 13, 2015, and contains forward- looking statements. Such statements are generally identified by the use of words such as "anticipate", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "may", "will", "project", "should", "plan", "intend", "believe" and similar expressions (including the negatives thereof). In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking information as to Zargon’s corporate strategy and business plans, Zargon’s oil exploration project inventory and development plans, Zargon’s dividend policy and the amount of future dividends, future commodity prices, Zargon’s expectation for uses of funds from financing, Zargon’s capital expenditure program and the allocation and the sources of funding thereof, Zargon’s cash flow and dividend model and the assumptions contained therein and the results there from, anticipated payout rates, 2015 and beyond production and other guidance and the assumptions contained therein, estimated tax pools, Zargon’s reserve estimates, Zargon’s hedging policies, Zargon’s drilling, development and exploitation plans and projects and the results there from and Zargon’s ASP project plans 2015 and beyond, strategic alternatives review process, the source of funding for our 2015 and beyond capital program including ASP, capital expenditures, costs and the results
those relating to results of operations and financial condition, general economic conditions, industry conditions, changes in regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices, escalation of operating and capital costs, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel. Risks are described in more detail in our Annual Information Form, which is available
You are cautioned that the assumptions, including, among other things, future oil and natural gas prices; future capital expenditure levels; future production levels; future exchange rates; the cost of developing and expanding our assets; our ability to obtain equipment in a timely manner to carry out development activities; our ability to market our oil and natural gas successfully to current and new customers; the impact of increasing competition; our ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms; and our ability to add production and reserves through our development and acquisition activities used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking
can give no assurance that any of the events anticipated will transpire or occur, or if any of them do, what benefits we will derive from them. The forward-looking information contained in this presentation is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. Our policy for updating forward-looking statements is that Zargon disclaims, except as required by law, any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Barrels of Oil Equivalent - Natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent (“Boe”) using six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. In certain circumstances, natural gas liquid volumes have been converted to a thousand cubic feet equivalent (“Mcfe”) on the basis of one barrel of natural gas liquids to six thousand cubic feet of gas. Boes and Mcfes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one barrel to six thousand cubic feet of natural gas is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion ratio on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. Estimated reserve values disclosed in this presentation do not represent fair market value. Discovered Petroleum Initially-In-Place (“DPIIP”) is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of discovered petroleum initially in place includes production, reserves, and contingent resources; the remainder is unrecoverable. The aggregate of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and the change during that year in estimated future development costs generally will not reflect total finding and development costs related to reserves additions for that year.
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undeveloped locations.
35 prospective development locations not included in the reserve report.
Zargon Asset Character ASP Assets (Little Bow) Zargon Non-ASP assets
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recovery project provides years of oil production growth.
suited for a “sustainable income model”.
Williston Basin Alberta Plains South
(incl. ASP project)
Alberta Plains North
drive oil exploitation wells.
drive oil exploitation wells.
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Capitalization – Toronto Stock Exchange: Symbols: ZAR; ZAR.DB – Common Shares Outstanding: 30.28 million (basic) – Market Capitalization: $67 million ($2.22 per share) (1) – Net Debt at June 30, 2015: $112 million, comprised of
$57.5 million (face value – June 2017 maturity)
$54 million
$110 million (less than 50 percent drawn)
– Insider Ownership: 3.35 million shares (11 percent) Dividend & Yield – Monthly Dividend: $0.01 per share – Yield at current share price: 5.4% (1) Q2 2015 Production – Equivalent: 4,607 boe/d – Oil: 3,720 bbl/d (81% of production) – Gas: 5.32 mmcf/d Q2 2015 Financial Results – Funds Flow from Operations $0.33 per basic share ($10.0 million) – Dividends Paid $0.09 per basic share ($2.7 million)
(1) Based on a monthly dividend rate of $0.01/share and using the August 11, 2015 closing share price of $2.22.
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financial alternatives available to the Company with the ultimate goal of maximizing shareholder value.
equivalent per day. 2014 Year End Reserves
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Strategic Alternatives Review Announced
NAV of $3.84 per share (no ASP).
from $130 million to $110 million, of which more than $56 million remains undrawn.
Revised Bank Line and Dividend
Property Project Net Wells Comments Bellshill Lake Increase fluid withdrawal 5+ Facility optimization; infills and step-outs Killam Glauconite Other Plains North Develop Glauconite pool Killam, Morinville, Carrot Creek 8+ 4+ Infill and step-out locations Infill and step-out locations Taber South and Taber SE Develop Sunburst pools 8+ Expand and enhance waterfloods Williston Basin Elswick, Midale, Weyburn, Ralph, Steelman, Mackobee 40+ Horizontal drainage wells in relatively tight reservoirs; additional pressure support required in some cases
Drilling Inventory of 65+ net wells. Drilling activities have been curtailed as the Company has been allocating available capital to the Little Bow ASP project.
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Using historical Zargon operated production plots, we calculate base oil production declines of 14%. Independent research by Peters (17%) and the proved and probable developed producing McDaniel analyses (1st year decline of 14.5%) support our view of industry-low base declines.
Comparative Declines Source: Peters & Co. Limited, Intermediates & Juniors (August 4, 2015) Oil sands and SAGD producers are not included.
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Zargon Corporate Decline Analysis ‐ Total Oil Production Rate
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11 Jan‐12 Jan‐13 Jan‐14
Gross W.I. Oil Production Rate ( bbl/day )
2014 Additions 2013 Additions 2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions Base Production
Data to Dec 31, 2014 Dec 2014 Contribution Decline Rate Base 64% 7.6% 2011 11% 8.7% 2012 7% 17.0% 2013 5% 21.4% 2014 12% 35.0%
Weighted average oil decline rate of 12.5%
10 20 30 40 50
Average Annual Decline Rate (%) Average 29%
Zargon
Based on the economic parameters outlined in the next slide, Zargon’s cash flow is anticipated to be greater than the forecasted capital and dividend ($0.01 per month) outlays for calendar 2016. Should improved oil prices or production volumes provide additional cash flows, Zargon will allocate additional capital to conventional drilling opportunities and/or the Little Bow ASP phase 2 project. Should reduced oil prices or production volumes result in substantially reduced cash flows, Zargon may suspend the remaining dividend and/or defer the Little Bow phase 1 ASP project by injecting only polymer until prices improve. This deferral action would reduce the ASP 2016 chemical costs by $10 million to $4 million and eliminate the ASP exploitation capital, taking the total 2016 capital budget down to $10 million. Note: a $10 US/bbl WTI improvement in 2016 oil prices increases cash flows by $15 million (excluding hedges).
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Capital Program 2015 Preliminary 2016 ASP Phase 1 Exploitation Capital (H1) $ 2 million $ 1 million ASP Phase 1 Exploitation Capital (H2) $ 4 million $ 1 million ASP Phase 1 Chemical Costs $13 million $14 million Total ASP Capital $ 19 million $ 16 million Conventional (non ASP) Capital $ 6 million $ 6 million Total Capital Program $ 25 million $ 22 million
Oil - $23.00 per bbl (includes base ASP facility costs), Gas - $2.40/mcf; Incremental ASP Oil - $4.00/bbl
$4.50 per boe (excluding one-time charges); declining per unit costs due to corporate downsizing and growing ASP volumes
Conventional Oil 14%; ASP Oil 5%; Natural Gas 8%
Decline at 14% per year from Q2 2015 rate of 3,640 bbl/d
Use McDaniel 2P Forecast (refer to Slide 40 for more detail)
Decline at 10% per year from estimated Q3 2015 rate of 5.0 mmcf/d
$0.78 US/$Cdn.
H2 2015 $50 US/bbl; $56 US/bbl in 2016 WTI to Zargon Base Differential; $17 Cdn./bbl WTI to ASP Differential; $22 Cdn./bbl
$2.85 and $3.10/mmbtu AECO (2015 and 2016) less $0.25/mcf diff.
Refer to next slide Production Guidance 2015 Cost Targets (Year Avg.) Other 2015 Parameters
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Hedging Strategy Forward Oil Sales
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1,000 bbl/d at $80.02 Cdn./bbl (WTI)
500 bbl/d at $79.30 Cdn.bbl (WTI)
Proved and probable conventional property value of $306 million less estimated December 31/14 net debt of $114 million leaves $192 million or $6.38 per Zargon share (30.09 million shares
Little Bow ASP adds an additional $101 million, or $3.36 per share of proved and probable reserve value.
Waterflood & Waterdrive Properties
2015/Q2 Production McDaniel Reserves
McDaniel Oil (bbl/d) Gas (mmcf/d) Oil (mmbbl) Gas (bcf) PV10 Asset Value ($million)
Williston Basin 1,741 0.47 7.93 1.23 $ 150 Alberta Plains North 805 2.45 2.84 8.68 $ 63 Alberta Plains South 1,094 2.40 4.42 4.08 $ 93 Subtotal 3,640 5.32 15.19 13.99 $ 306
2015/Q2 Production McDaniel Reserves McDaniel Little Bow ASP Assets Oil (bbl/d) Gas (mmcf/d) Oil (mmbbl) Gas (bcf) PV 10 Asset Value ($million)
ASP Increment 80
1.70 $ 101 Grand Total 3,720 5.32 19.67 15.69 $ 407 12
Category
Canadian Exploration Expense $ 58 million Non Capital Losses $102 million Canadian Development Expense $ 34 million Canadian Oil & Gas Property Expense $ nil million Canadian Undepreciated Capital Cost $ 83 million Other $ 5 million Total Tax Pools $282 million
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At December 31, 2014, Zargon has more than $280 million of very high quality Canadian tax pools that will shield increasing ASP revenues for many years.
Board of Directors Officers
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President and Chief Executive Officer
Vice President, Land
Vice President, Operations
Vice President, Alberta Plains South
Vice President, Williston Basin
Vice President, Corporate Development
Vice President, Enhanced Recovery
Chief Financial Officer
period.
does not mature until June 2017.
reflective of the fundamental value inherent in the Company and that action must be taken to unlock this unrealized value. Balance Sheet Protected Strategic Process Initiated Deep Discount to NAV
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(and to the proved developed producing net asset value) for Zargon’s waterflood and waterdrive oil assets.
Ongoing Activities
Estevan
North Dakota Saskatchewan Manitoba
Haas Truro Mackobee Coulee Frys Steelman Ralph Elswick Weyburn Workman 17
conventional oil projects located in Saskatchewan and North Dakota
and waterdrive systems with significant oil-in- place, low recovery factors, potential upside exploitation, exploration and development drilling opportunities
18 Development Scope Development wells 40+ Average development cost/well ~ $1.2 MM
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Williston Basin Decline Analysis - Total Oil Production Rate
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Gross W.I. Oil Production Rate ( bbl/day ) 2014 Additions 2013 Additions 2012 Additions 2011 Additions 2010 Additions 2009 Additions Base Production
Data to M ay 31 , 201 5200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 Jan-07 Jan-08 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Gross W.I. Oil Production Rate ( bbl/day ) WB Production Base Production Base Decline Combined Decline
Data to M ay 31 , 201 5Established Primary Producing wells Decline is ~12%; Core Asset Base Decline ~14%
mature basins that exhibit low decline rates and long reserve lives
$199 million of property cash flow and $83 million of free cash flow after capital, in addition to providing a net $89 million of proceeds from property dispositions
netbacks/cashflow, shallow decline rate and long-life core producing properties
Netback Elements Oil Rate OPEX Netback Netback CAPEX Net A&D Net Proceeds (bbl/d) ($/boe) ($/boe) ($M) ($M) ($M) ($M) 2010 2,840 13.82 43.12 46,365 29,707 16,561 33,219 2011 2,436 15.34 52.93 48,655 27,807 22,536 43,384 2012 2,163 16.00 44.90 36,730 19,637 36,203 53,296 2013 1,912 17.18 49.95 35,973 17,448 11,551 30,076 2014 1,731 20.71 46.91 30,858 21,153 1,700 11,405 Total 198,581 115,752 88,551 171,380
drilling opportunities
Water Injection Wells Direct Line Drive
PPUD
Ralph Waterflood Production Performance – Midale Beds
Primary Development Secondary Development
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fracture stimulate the Midale/Vuggy interval with horizontal wells
Phi*H (m)
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 G J E V E V E V V E V V E V S J E V D V C V E V D V V J J J M I I V V D V E V E E E V J J J J J J I V I V C V I V E V I V E E E M E V S V E J D J J E I V E V V V I V S V G V E V D V I J D V I E E V E V D V D V D V I M S J E V M E V E V D V E D E E V I I V I I J D E V I C V D J E V J I J J J I V D V E E V J J J J M M J I I V A V D E V E E V V V V V V V V V I J G A I G E E V G J M G A V A V E V E V E V E V C V A V E J M M D E E J E I G I E V A V J I J J E S E C V I V D V J J J I E E I C V E V D V J S J E E E E J G I E I I E V J E G G G J E I I V E E I J J E J J G J E I E V E M M J S V J E E J G A V A V J I E I E J I V I D V E I I J J M J I J A V E V C V D V I D V E J J G I G I I J I J M J E V G J J I I J A I J J E V I V D V E E V J G J J G S J E E D V I V J G E E J J A V I V G V D V E V E V E J A V A V C V J E V E V J J J I G U G E V I V E V I V I G J J A V A V J E V E V E V I M E V I V I V J M J S V C V J J E V C V E J M D J I I E V E D V D V J J S V E V I J D V J I M J I V D V I E V V V C V J E I J D V E V E M D V E E J S V E D V E V S V E V I E V E V J M J J I V J V V V E V E D V M J J J E V V S V D V D V J J J J A V A V C V C V G G U J I G J S V GU G S V G J C V V E V D V M S E S V I J D V C V E V E V E C V D V E V G S J V E V D V E V D V D V J D V J J J J D V C S E V E V S V S V J J M M I D J I V E D J J J J D V E D G D E V D V G M A V A V J J M E V A V E V J V E V E V E V C V J V V V J 9.9 J 0.1 C V J 44.3 J 22.7 J 0.9 I V 40.4 E 53.3 E V 78.9 J 177.4 J 40.5 J 156.4 J 135.1 C V S V J 299.7 J 121.6 J 67.9 E 51.8 S V D V J 20.2 E V 18.6 D V I 245.3 M 57.8 J 0.3 M 30.9 D I 143.1 J 20.8 D E V 371.5 D J 361.7 I 220.2 J 86.4 J 298.5 E 286.9 J 54.1 J 142.8 J 230.8 M 56.2 M 56.1 J 697.6 I 79.7 D E 302.6 V V V I J I E M 0.9 E V 35.3 C V E 81.1 J 3.9 M 118.4 E 155.8 J 31.6 E 213.8 I 40.9 G I 327.4 E V 24.9 I 99.7 J 30.1 E 105.8 S 97.1 E 125.4 C V I V 67.4 D V J 0.4 J 0.3 J 39.6 I 102.5 E 7.0 E 2.0 I 78.9 C V E V 36.5 D V S E 93.9 E 158.3 E 26.7 J 0.2 I 14.8 E 205.3 I 76.5 E V 18.1 E 224.6 J 2.7 E 23.7 I 1.4 E 36.2 E 40.1 I 20.1 J 75.5 J 13.6 E 39.7 J 2.2 J 52.2 J 103.4 E 55.1 I 10.2 E V 41.6 E 181.9 M 17.6 S V J 90.2 E 71.4 J 374.1 J 75.2 E 70.0 I 163.2 J 14.7 I V 28.4 D V E 76.4 I 55.5 I 176.9 J 234.1 M 36.2 J 94.6 J 25.2 E V 171.2 C V D V I 33.2 D V J 58.4 I 9.7 I 74.3 J 77.1 I 125.6 M 24.9 J 0.3 J 0.0 I 173.4 J 0.7 I 50.5 E V 26.4 E 62.2 E V 22.7 J 118.6 J 0.5 E 234.1 J 155.4 J 11.6 J 45.0 E 114.3 J 15.4 C V J 52.1 E V 64.1 J 76.6 J 195.9 J 0.7 E V 5.1 E V 35.6 I 43.4 J 6.3 J 0.6 M 2.5 E V 97.3 J 153.8 M 33.6 S V C V J 222.2 J 254.0 E V 158.0 C V E 147.4 M 6.1 J 202.5 I 54.2 D V J 137.9 J 126.8 S V E V 97.8 J 28.2 J 263.1 M 12.8 J 57.4 D V E V 177.6 V C V E 338.1 I 257.6 J 171.7 D V E V 444.2 E 319.5 M 31.9 E 308.6 D V J 278.9 S V E 130.5 E V 57.4 S V E V 97.6 E V 166.4 J 466.7 M 27.3 J 105.3 J 235.4 V V E V 121.6 E 39.2 D V M 52.7 J 72.7 J 145.3 J 340.8 E V 29.3 V S V D V D V J 410.8 J 133.1 J 552.9 J 4.1 C V C V G J 7.6 I 0.1 G J 7.5 S V G S V G J 6.8 C V V E V 8.8 D V M 127.2 S 23.3 E 224.2 S V J 682.3 D V C V E V 133.7 E V 12.9 E 298.6 C V D V E V 190.0 J V 52.4 D V E V 164.8 D V D V J 940.7 D V J 281.9 J 43.8 J 195.7 J 268.8 D V C S E V 85.5 S V 0.0 S V J 129.7 J 26.5 M 33.9 M 64.5 I 330.7 D J 64.0 I V 45.0 E 434.4 D J 280.9 J 960.2 J 255.9 J 208.8 D V E 283.7 D D V G M 155.0 J 352.1 J 388.4 M 105.7 E V 326.0 J 61.4 VS
J 177.4S
J 156.4S
J 135.1S
J 121.6S
I 143.1S
J 142.8S
ES
M 118.4S
E 155.8S
E 105.8S
E 125.4S
I 102.5S
E 158.3S
J 103.4S
E 181.9S
I 163.2S
I 176.9S
E V 171.2S
I 125.6S
I 173.4S
J 118.6S
J 155.4S
E 114.3S
J 195.9S
J 153.8S
E V 158.0S
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J 137.9S
J 126.8S
E V 177.6S
J 171.7S
E 130.5S
E V 166.4S
J 105.3S
E V 121.6S
J 145.3S
J 133.1S
M 127.2S
E V 133.7S
E V 190.0S
E V 164.8S
J 195.7S
J 129.7S
M 155.0S
M 105.7S
J 299.7S
I 245.3S
I 220.2S
J 298.5S
E 286.9S
J 230.8 VS
E 213.8S
E 205.3S
E 224.6S
J 234.1S
E 234.1S
J 222.2S
J 254.0S
J 202.5S
J 263.1S
I 257.6S
J 278.9S
J 235.4S
E 224.2S
E 298.6S
J 281.9S
J 268.8S
J 280.9S
J 255.9S
J 208.8S
E 283.7S
E V 371.5S
J 361.7S
E 302.6S
I 327.4S
J 374.1S
E 338.1S
E V 444.2S
E 319.5S
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J 466.7S
J 340.8S
J 410.8S
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J 352.1S
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E V 326.0S
J 697.6 VS
J 552.9S
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J 940.7S
J 960.2 50 MSTB 100 MSTB 50 MSTB 50 MSTB 100 MSTB 100 MSTB 150 MSTB 150 MSTB SCM CI = 10m T6 T7 T6 T7 R10W2 R11 R9W2 R1022
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 13 24 25 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 12 13 24 25 36 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 13 24 25 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 12 13 24 25 36 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 13 24 25 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 12 13 24 25 36 I M J E J E V E V A V M E M I E V G J A G G U G E V E E E I I E I V M E V E E V J E E E V A V C C V E E A V E V C V E V E V M D C V E V D D V A V J V E E V G E G E V G G E V E V E V E V J E V J I S E G V E V E V G E V E V E V E V E V E V E V G V E V G V E V C V D J E V E V D V G E V G J D E V A V G E V E V E V E V G D V I V G G U E V G E V I V J S E C V E E V D V E V G V E V E V E V C V C V C V E V E V E E I V C V C V E V A V J E V E E V E V E V E V E V E V E V E V G GU E V C V E V D V D V C V G G A V G V C V J C V D V E G U C V E V E V J D D V J V E V E V D V D V E V E V E G D V E V S J C V E V C V E V S E V E V E V D V G U E V J V G V E V E J D J C V J J D E V E V C V J D E V E V E V E V E V E V J D E V J V M E G I E I G E E V C V E V D V E V E V E V D G C V D V D I I M E J D E J C V I V E V D V E E V C V E J J I J E V G E V I E E V E V E V E C V A V E D V E G G E S E V G E E V C V E S E V C V E V E V E V G E V S E V E S E E E E G G U S G E E J D E V E V E V E V E V C V E V E V E E E J D S E S E V E V E V E E V E V G E V D E E V E V D VE V E V E V E V E V G E V I E V J J E G E E G D C V E V E V E V D V E V E V E I E E V E E A V E E V D V E V M E V E V E V D V E V G U E V E V E C V E V E V G S G U G V E V E E V E V E V G E V E V J G J I J G E V E V E V E V C V E V I V E V E V I V C V J E G G I E V I J E J E V G G E V C V C V G E V E V G E V E E V E V E V I V E V G U E V J D A V A V E J E V E V E V E E V I A V A V G E V I V E V E V E V J G D I G E V E V J E V J E V E V E V E V J G E V G E V E V E V E V E V C V G G G J E V E J G J I I E V A G G I M E J I E A D V E V E V C V I I J J E E V I V S I S I V J M G I E J I S I G D M I V I J I J E E G J E J V G A V A V G E I E I I G V J U G G E V S G I V J G G I J J G E V G U E G E G E V E E S J G E V C V E G E S J E V I J I S G G M I E V C V I V J J V E G E I V G I D V S G J I G I V E V E V E E I V E V E V E J E E I G C V V E V E V E V G I U E J E V E S G G C V E J E V E V D V E V E V E V G G G G G E V G A V I I E V D V E V G D E V D V E V J E I E V E V G A V A V A V D V G J I V D V I V I V E V E U G G E V J E V C V I V J J J I C V J E J E J E V C V I V E V E J G E G G C V E V C V J I C V I E V A V I V S J G G E G E V J A V A V J A V J G M E J E V E V G D V D V I E I J I A E I J J S E V D V J A V D V J S G I E J G A V I E V J D E V J I A V G J M J G M E G E J I E V A V E V E V M D I M M J I J M G S J E M G J I A V G D G G M I J J J J E E V J A V A V A V J M E E G J J G M J E G G G E V G J S E J E G J E J E G S I J I G J E J E J J I I I I I S I M S M J I J J G E V J D E A V A V E V E V A V A V V G E V V E V V E E G G G G A V A V A V E V E V E V E V E V E V A V A V E V E V E V G E V C V A V J I E J J E V J E E V E E A V G U A V J E S E V E G E V D V C V E V E V E V D V D V E V E V E V J D A V E J A V C V I J E V C V C V E V E V V D V E V E V E V E V E V E V E V A V D V E E V G J A V A V J J E V E V E V D V E V E V E V E V E V D V C V D V I J E G D V D V C V D V I C V D V I V E I J M J G E V G C V E V J G S C V C V E V E V E V G E V E V E V D V E V E V E V E V J I E V C V E V E V J D V G E S V E G C G G V V J D V G G E J J G G A V A A V E C V E V G G E E V E V C V I S E J E A E V E E V G E V E V E E V V E C V S V E V S U E V J V C V E V V S J D E V E V E V C V G E S E V A E V G S C V J E V AT4 T5 T4 T5 R3W2 R4 R5 R3W2 R4 R5
Steelman Operated Properties -Production
100% 640 acres undeveloped Midale potential Net Operated Frobisher and Midale Production ~450b/d Oil Net Non-Op Production ~140 b/d Oil
multi zone targets (Exploitation and Exploration)
and low declines
traps (Oil saturated, underlying natural water drive mechanism)
23
Section 4 Midale Oil Play
conversion
waterflood to increase oil recoveries
Section 2 Midale Oil Play
Primary Development Secondary Development Steelman Midale Voluntary Unit No. 8
Sect.2 Twp 5 Rge 4 W2M
Steelman Midale
Sect.4 Twp 5 Rge 4 W2M WINJ
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Haas Truro Mackobee Coulee
comprised of oil projects in Alberta, from east central W4 to the Carrot Creek area
waterdrive or waterflood pressure supported systems with development drilling potential
26
Property Development Wells All In Cost/Well ($ thousands)
Bellshill Lake 5 $ 850 Killam Oil 1 $ 600 Killam Glauconite 8 $ 1,200 Morinville Leduc 2 $ 1,000 Carrot Creek Cardium 1 $ 1,300
27
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Oil Rate (bbl/day)
a platform for continued growth
2D & 3D seismic coverage
28
10 100 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Oil Rate (bbl/day)
Data to May 31, 2015
property
wells defined by extensive 2D & 3D seismic coverage
full scale waterflood pressure support scheme is possible
29
3D seismic
30
(1 operated and 2 non-operated)
continuing optimization and reactivation
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 W.I. Oil Rate (bbl/day)
32
Taber - Conventional oil development with
horizontal wells and waterflood
– Horizontal wells – Future drilling locations & waterflood enhancement
Little Bow - ASP project and mature waterfloods
Optimization/Reactivations/Infill Drilling
Weighted average oil decline rate of 14%
Property Development Wells All In Cost/Well ($ thousands)
Taber S (Hz) 5-7 $ 1,000 Taber SE (Hz) 3-6 $ 1,000 Little Bow (DD) 1-4 $ 750
33
31 Horizontal wells drilled since 2007 - current production 600 bbls/d Waterflood expanding to north - currently 5 horizontal injectors 5 additional locations identified - development supported by 3D seismic (depth converted Sunburst amplitude below) Glauconite oil - development potential north of Sunburst pools
34
Data to April 2015
35
OOIP South Pool – 15.5 million bbls
Recovery to date – 9.7% Forecast ultimate recovery* – PDP-15.8%, PDP+P-18.3%
OOIP North Pool – 6.7 million bbls
Recovery to date – 15.3% Forecast ultimate recovery* – PDP-19.8%, PDP+P-21.6%
North pool recovery to date is higher due to lower density oil (and vertical well recoveries) South pool is seeing stabilizing rates due to waterflood (vertical well historical production was negligible due to higher density oil)
North Pool
API – 20 deg
South Pool
API – 16 deg
* McDaniel 2014 Year-End Reserves Report
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Taber SE – Sunburst Oil Taber S – Sunburst Horizontal Development
EOR in a mature Southern Alberta Waterflood
Summary - Timeline
complete and online ($50 million: construction & startup).
Enhanced Oil Recovery (“EOR”) improves project economics. Phase 1 oil royalty of 5% for ten years confirmed by Alberta Energy in April 2015.
conclusive evidence of oil bank formation. Zargon initiates $4 million (H2 2015 total) oil exploitation program to accelerate oil recovery.
38
Capital
Phases 1 & 2 Reserves:
5.2 million barrels (12% doiip)
4.5 million barrels (proved and probable) 1.5 million barrels (proved)
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Jan 2015 July 2015 Jan 2016 July 2016 Jan 2017
200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Oct-2014
bbl/d
Little Bow ASP Oil Production
Base Waterflood (McDaniel 2014 mid year & YE P+PDP) Daily Production
(to August 8, 2015)
McDaniel TP+P 2015 /16 increment = 132 / 797 bbl/d Ultimate: 2.45 million barrels Sustained at this level for 2.5 years
June - August production impacted by injection line
40
Period McDaniel YE 2014 Phase 1 Proved & Prob. (bbl/d) Actual Production (bbl/d) Q1 2015 4 50 Q2 2015 66 80 Q3 2015 164
294
132
797
production response while evident, is delayed relative to original forecasts. Prior to recent interruptions for injection pipeline repairs (related to material & installation defects on certain line segments), oil production trends have met the McDaniel “independent evaluator” forecast which assigns a total of 4.5 mmbbl of proved and probable reserves to Phases 1 and 2 of the Little Bow ASP project. In July, Zargon has commenced a $4 million remedial and optimization program (2015 H2) to accelerate oil production.
production growth “stalled” in Q2
productivity
– ASP response: higher viscosity fluids – Injection pattern re-configuration – Injection line outages: June-Sept. 2015
progam will: – Optimize injection rate and locations (improved balance throughout pool) – Drill infill producers to increase production capability & reduce well spacing – Optimize ASP injectant formulation
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oil Cut (%) OIl (bpd)
Little Bow ASP: Phase 1 Production
Oil Rate Oil Avg. Oil Cut Oil Cut Avg. 2014 2015 Production Data to: August 08, 2015 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Fluid Production (BPD)
Fluid Production 2014 2015
41
Northern Region
line breaks (to be restored by the end of September)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
50 100 150 200 250
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oil Cut (%) Oil (bbl/d) Production Data to: August 08, 2015
2014 2015
Northern Region Production
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Total Fluid (BPD)
2014 2015
42
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Total Fluid (BPD)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
50 100 150 200 250
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oil Cut (%) Oil (bbl/d) Production Data to: August 08, 2015
2014 2015
Central Region Production
Central Region
line breaks (to be fully restored by end of September)
2014 2015
43
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
50 100 150 200 250
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Oil Cut (%) Oil (bbl/d) Production Data to: August 08, 2015
2014 2015
Southern Region Production
Southern Region (gas cap area)
configured to improve oil cut and production
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Total Fluid (BPD)
2014 2015
44
45
Item
Production
improve operating efficiencies
technology
Injection
ASP Fluid Design
regulatory approval.
Cenovus, Crescent Point.
Saskatchewan: historically (no longer) favorable EOR royalty treatment.
1980’s.
47
Dilute concentrations of chemicals (Alkali, Surfactant and Polymer) in water are injected into an existing oil pool to “scrub” out oil that waterflooding alone will not recover.
Rock Rock
a) Water Injection: More than half of oil is “trapped” b) Alkali / Surfactant Mobilizes trapped oil
Water Injection Trapped Oil Droplet Water Rock Rock Mobilized Oil Droplet Alkali & Surfactant Solution Injector Producer Water Water Injector Producer Polymer Solution Increased Contact Volume Polymer Solution Increased Contact Volume
a) Water Injection b) Polymer Injection
Detergent; mobilizes trapped oil
Increases surfactant effectiveness
Thickened water helps sweep oil from the reservoir
48
1) ASP Injection
A blend of Alkali, Surfactant & Polymer mobilizes trapped oil
2) Polymer “Push”
Polymer displaces mobilized
3) Terminal Waterflood
Return to waterflood to complete oil displacement
OIL BANK ASP POLYMER WATER
49
Little Bow Phase 1 & 2 Injection Schedule Phase 1
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 2
ASP Polymer
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Taber Mannville “B” ASP Analog
ASP depletion state as Zargon’s Little Bow pool; ASP injection since 2006
Little Bow Mannville “I” and “P” Pools (Zargon) Taber Mannville “B” Pool (Husky)
50
Taber Production History
May‐14 May‐13 May‐12 May‐11 May‐10 May‐09 May‐08 May‐07 May‐06
8% R F 10% R F 12% R F 14% R F 16% R F 8% R F 10% R F 12% R F 14% R F 16% R F
10 100 1,000 10,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 23,000 24,000 25,000
Cumulative Oil Production (mbbl) Oil Production (bbl/d)
1 10 100 1,000
Oil Cut (%)
Data to December 2014
Oil Cut (%) First ASP Injection May, 2006
AER DPIIP = 43.1 mmbbl ASP Recovery Pool Rec* Percent mmbbl Mmbbl 8% 3.4 20.5 10% 4.3 21.3 12% 5.2 22.2 14% 6.0 23.0 16% 6.9 23.9 * Recovery where ASP flood returns to pre‐ASP levels
Zargon W.I. (%) W.I. DOIIP* (mmbbl) Phases 1 & 2 LB “I” Pool 100 31 LB “P” Pool 100 8 Phases 3 & 4 U&W Unit 97 26 G Unit 95 10 MM Unit 100 5 Other C8C / X8X 100 9 Total 89
* AER DOIIP Data (Jan. 2014)
51
15‐19W4 15‐18W4 14‐19W4 14‐18W4
Zargon Land Zargon Wells
Phases 1&2 Area
“C8C/X8X” Pool “MM” Unit “G”, “U&W” Units
Phases 3&4 Area
Little Bow Phase 1 - 4 Injection Schedule Phase 1
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 2
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 3
ASP Polymer Waterflood
Phase 4
ASP Polymer
2022 2023 2024 2025 2020 2021 2026 2027 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
the Phase 1 area)
improve oil production rate
52 Phase 1&2 Area ASP Startup Apr/2014
Little Bow ASP: Phases 1&2 Production
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
bbl/d
WTI Price: $75 US/bbl Real US Exchange: 0.85 $/$ Field Oil Price: WTI / US Exchange less $22 Cdn/bbl Zargon Internal Production Forecasts Effective Date for “Go Forward” Economics: January 1, 2015
53
(1) ASP Chemical injectant booked as capital (2) Phase 2 capital; incurred in 2016
Full Cycle Go Forward IRR (%) 14 61 PV10 (million) $ 30 $101 F&D ($/bbl) (1) 30 18 Netback ($/bbl) (1) 57 58 Recycle Ratio (1) 1.9 3.2 Oil Reserves (mbbl) 5,200 5,200 Development Capital (million) (2) $ 62 $ 12 Chemical ($million) $ 83 $ 71 Phases 1&2: 12% Recovery (5.2 mmbbl) Phase 1 Phase 2
Base Waterflood
Phases 1&2 Price Sensitivities
WTI: Full Cycle Go Fwd. Full Cycle Go Fwd. IRR (%) 19 86 24 117 PV10 (million) $67 $138 $104 $176 $85 US/bbl $95 US/bbl
ASP Development Forecast - Phases 1-4
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
bbl/d Zargon W.I. Production
WTI Price: $75 US/bbl Real; US Exchange: 0.85 $/$ Field Oil Price: WTI / US Exchange less $22 Cdn/bbl Zargon Internal Production Forecasts Effective Date for “Go Forward” Economics: January 1, 2015 Reflects Current Zargon Working Interests varying from 97 – 100 %
54
(1) ASP Chemical injectant booked as capital (2) Phase 3 & 4 capital; incurred in 2019-2021 (3) Phase 3 & 4 chemical costs; incurred in 2018-2027
Phases 1&2 12% Recovery 100% W.I. Phases 3&4 11% Recovery 97% W.I.
Base Waterflood
Go Forward Economics
Phases 3 & 4 Phases 1 ‐ 4 IRR (%) 33 55 PV10 (million) $ 50 $150 F&D ($/bbl) (1) 22 20 Netback ($/bbl) (1) 62 60 Recycle Ratio (1) 2.8 3.0 Oil Reserves (mbbl) 4,650 9,850 Development Capital (million) (2) $ 20 $ 32 Chemical (million) (3) $ 86 $154 Phases 1-4 Price Sensitivities
WTI: Phases 3&4 Phases 1-4 Phases 3&4 Phases 1-4 IRR (%) 41 79 49 110 PV10 (million) $71 $210 $93 $269 $85 US/bbl $95 US/bbl
Program Highlights and its Impact on Zargon
McDaniel (Phase 1 and 2) Oil & Liquids Reserves (mmbbl) Project NPV
As of Jan. 1, 2014 ($million) Project NPV Modified EOR Roy. As of July 1, 2014 ($million) Proved Undeveloped 1.53 25.1 39.6 Proved and Probable Undeveloped 4.48 66.3 98.6
55